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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 10, 2024 · AT&T Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 10
It turned at Q2 3:10, 1st and 6, on Ezekiel Elliott — 16.7 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 3:10 · 1st and 6
Ezekiel Elliott
Eagles
(3:10) (Shotgun) 15-E.Elliott up the middle to PHI 3 for 3 yards (53-Z.Baun; 8-C.Gardner-Johnson). FUMBLES (53-Z.Baun), RECOVERED by PHI-33-C.DeJean at PHI -8. Touchback. Penalty on DAL-87-J.Ferguson, Offensive Holding, declined.
Philadelphia Eagles 34–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 3:10, Eagles +16.7% win probability on one snap.
16.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Eagles won this one — -0.05 expected points per snap, against Cowboys at -0.71 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — 2 giveaways, against Cowboys at 5 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — -0.08 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at -0.89 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 2 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 13.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
(3:10) (Shotgun) 15-E.Elliott up the middle to PHI 3 for 3 yards (53-Z.Baun; 8-C.Gardner-Johnson). FUMBLES (53-Z.Baun), RECOVERED by PHI-33-C.DeJean at PHI -8. Touchback. Penalty on DAL-87-J.Ferguson, Offensive Holding,
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jalen Hurts's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 7:10 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Eaglescategory by categoryCowboys
Eagles ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.89 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 64 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 56 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 7, Cowboys 2.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.71.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's blitz rate sent, 43.3%, is past their previous high of 41.2% in week 3 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
DAL's pass rate over expected, −10.3 pts, is past their previous low of −5.1 pts in week 2 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points.
DAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 72.7% in week 9 against 47.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Eagles-6.3 ptsright on their number · +2.7 vs their -9.0 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 64 snaps
Cowboys-10.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.8 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 11% to 86%
Tendencies room →Eagles42.3%right on their number · −1.5 vs their 43.8%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 52 early downs
Cowboys47.5%inside their normal wobble · −10.2 vs their 57.7%, and they swing ±10.7 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 40 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 47%
Tendencies room →Eagles23.3%right on their number · −0.5 vs their 23.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Cowboys15.6%right on their number · −2.8 vs their 18.4%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -44% to 127%
Fourth Down room →Eagles33.3%inside their normal wobble · −12.8 vs their 46.1%, and they swing ±24.7 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Cowboys33.3%right on their number · −8.1 vs their 41.5%, and they swing ±33.6 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 53%
Tendencies room →Eagles28.1%right on their number · +4.3 vs their 23.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Cowboys43.3%leaned — sent pressure · +10.8 vs their 32.5%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+1.46× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 39%
Tendencies room →Eagles18.8%inside their normal wobble · +5.4 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Cowboys23.3%inside their normal wobble · +7.1 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
DAL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 43.3%, 10.8 points above their season mean of 32.5% and 1.5 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
14/20, 202 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-4.8 expected points added · +19.4% completion over expected
Passing · DAL
13/23, 45 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-17.0 expected points added · -13.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Jalen Hurts banked 6.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 29.7 | +6.2 | 79% | — | 0% | — | 14/20, 202 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 7 car, 56 yd, 2 TD |
| A.J. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.9 | +2.4 | 74% | 83% | 35% | 52% | 5/7, 109 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.5 | +1.7 | 63% | 60% | 15% | 13% | 2/3, 25 yd, 1 TD |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Committee Back | 8.8 | −0.6 | 51% | 43% | 5% | 0% | 14 car, 66 yd · 1/1, 12 yd |
| Rico DowdleRB · Committee Back | 8.6 | −2.5 | 52% | 47% | 10% | 0% | 12 car, 53 yd · 3/3, 3 yd |
| CeeDee LambWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.4 | −8.1 | 83% | 84% | 34% | 28% | 1 car, 3 yd · 6/10, 21 yd |
| Johnny WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.5 | +4.0 | 26% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd, 1 TD |
| Kenneth GainwellRB | 4.9 | −2.8 | 32% | 43% | 5% | 0% | 7 car, 30 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Jake FergusonTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −2.3 | 75% | 78% | 17% | 0% | 4/5, 24 yd |
| Jalen TolbertWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −3.6 | 93% | 100% | 17% | 37% | 3/5, 14 yd |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | +2.4 | 44% | 60% | 5% | 11% | 1/1, 27 yd |
| Will ShipleyRB | 3.4 | −0.5 | 16% | 3% | 0% | — | 9 car, 34 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −1.4 | 72% | 83% | 15% | 17% | 2/3, 14 yd |
| Ainias SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −0.3 | 26% | 13% | 10% | 0% | 2/2, 6 yd |
| Jalen BrooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −5.0 | 58% | 47% | 14% | 35% | 1/4, 4 yd |
| Trey LanceQB | 0.5 | −2.2 | 25% | — | 0% | — | 4/6, 21 yd, 1 INT · 3 car, 17 yd |
| Kenny PickettQB | 0.3 | −0.5 | 21% | — | 0% | — | 1/2, 5 yd · 1 car, 1 yd |
| Ezekiel ElliottRB | 0.2 | −3.3 | 22% | 13% | 0% | — | 6 car, 22 yd |
| Luke SchoonmakerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 18% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kavontae TurpinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 13% | 19% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Ryan FlournoyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 27% | 25% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Hunter LuepkeRB | 0.0 | −1.5 | 27% | 41% | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Grant CalcaterraTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 62% | 33% | 5% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Cooper RushQB · Starter QB | -2.0 | −10.4 | 75% | — | 0% | — | 13/23, 45 yd · 2 car, 2 yd |
2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:10) (Shotgun) 15-E.Elliott up the middle to PHI 3 for 3 yards (53-Z.Baun; 8-C.Gardner-Johnson). FUMBLES (53-Z.Baun), RECOVERED by PHI-33-C.DeJean at PHI -8. Touchback. Penalty on DAL-87-J.Ferguson, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q2 3:10 · Cowboys · 1st & goal at PHI 6 · gained 3 · -6.44 EP · −20.6% win probability
158 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 84 yards from the PHI 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Eagles6
Cowboys0Eagles7Cowboys0Eagles7Cowboys3How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Eagles7Cowboys6Eagles13Cowboys6Eagles14Cowboys6Eagles20Cowboys6Eagles21Cowboys6Eagles27Cowboys6Eagles28Cowboys6Eagles31Cowboys6Eagles34Cowboys6Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Eagles at Cowboys, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 14/20 | 202 | 2 | 1 | 5 | −4.8 |
| Kenny Pickett | 1/2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 14 | 66 | 4.7 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Jalen Hurts | 7 | 56 | 8.0 | 2 | +6.0 |
| Will Shipley |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 7 | 109 | 0 | 35% | +4.6 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 5% | +2.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Baun | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chauncey Gardner-Johnson | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Nakobe Dean | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed Blankenship |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 13/23 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −17.0 |
| Trey Lance | 4/6 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 2 | −5.3 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_10_PHI_DAL
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 28.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 40 — under by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 9 |
| 34 |
| 3.8 |
| 0 |
| +0.3 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 | −2.6 |
| Kenny Pickett | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Dallas Goedert | 2 | 3 | 25 | 1 | 15% | −3.2 |
| DeVonta Smith | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 15% | +0.6 |
| Saquon Barkley | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 5% | +2.4 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 5% | +0.7 |
| Ainias Smith | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 10% | −0.4 |
| Johnny Wilson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5% | +2.6 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.5 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jalen Carter | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaiah Rodgers | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Milton Williams | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nolan Smith | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kelee Ringo | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper DeJean | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 12 | 53 | 4.4 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 | −6.3 |
| Trey Lance | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 | +0.7 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Cooper Rush | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −4.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Ferguson | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 17% | −6.9 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 6 | 10 | 21 | 0 | 34% | −1.1 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 17% | −5.9 |
| Jalen Brooks | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 14% | −3.7 |
| Rico Dowdle | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10% | −1.9 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Hunter Luepke | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarvion Overshown | 7 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Kendricks | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mazi Smith | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marist Liufau | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caelen Carson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jourdan Lewis | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlos Watkins | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan Wilson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Hooker | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Parsons | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
