2024 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 10, 2024 · FedExField

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

Washington Commanders

WAS -1.5 upsetO 45 ✓Commanders closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Pittsburgh Steelers 28–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:28, PIT +27% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:28PIT 28 — WAS 27WAS ball · 4th & 9PIT 59%

(1:28) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to PIT 42 for 8 yards (23-D.Kazee). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:28PIT +27% win prob(1:28) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to PIT 42 for 8 yards (23-D.Kazee). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 · 2:27WAS +25% win prob(2:27) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 18-M.Williams for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 7:12PIT +24% win prob(7:12) (No Huddle) 30-J.Warren left tackle to WAS 1 for 7 yards (20-Q.Martin; 11-J.Chinn). FUMBLES (20-Q.Martin), RECOVERED by WAS-11-J.Chinn at WAS 1.
Q2 · 13:00WAS +15% win prob(13:00) 8-C.Waitman punts 39 yards to WAS 16, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 14-O.Zaccheaus MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by PIT-15-B.Skowronek at WAS 14.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:38PIT Touchdown
(8:38) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 14-G.Pickens for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 7 — WAS 0
Q1 · 3:47WAS Touchdown
(3:47) (No Huddle) 30-A.Ekeler right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 7 — WAS 7
Q2 · 10:31PIT Touchdown
(10:31) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 14 — WAS 7
Q2 · 8:15WAS Field goal
(8:15) 47-Z.Gonzalez 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Score after this play: PIT 14 — WAS 10
Q2 · 0:19WAS Touchdown
(:19) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 14 — WAS 17
Q3 · 12:57WAS Touchdown
(12:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 14 — WAS 24
Q3 · 8:09PIT Touchdown
(8:09) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 22-N.Harris left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 21 — WAS 24
Q3 · 2:55WAS Field goal
(2:55) 47-Z.Gonzalez 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Score after this play: PIT 21 — WAS 27
Q4 · 2:27PIT Touchdown
(2:27) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 18-M.Williams for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 28 — WAS 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Commanders
Offensive plays	72	59
Total yards	315 (edge)	242
Yards per play	4.4 (edge)	4.1
Expected points added / play	-0.02 (edge)	-0.14
Success rate	36%	42% (edge)
Dropback rate	46%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18 (edge)	-0.25
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.19	0.06 (edge)
Third downs	7/16 (edge)	5/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

17/34, 202 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-9.3 expected points added · -12.7% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Russell WilsonQB

14/28, 195 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

7.3 expected points added · -2.7% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Jaylen WarrenRB

14 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

21 att, 53 yds, 1 TD

-3.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

5/6 for 113 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

George PickensWR

5/7 for 91 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	5	9	2:18	Punt
2	WAS	WAS 15	4	8	1:17	Punt
3	PIT	PIT 30	8	41	2:52	Touchdown +7
4	WAS	WAS 30	5	-1	1:56	Punt
5	PIT	PIT 21	4	-5	1:21	Turnover on downs
6	WAS	PIT 15	4	15	1:32	Touchdown +7
7	PIT	PIT 30	5	2	1:37	Punt
8	WAS	WAS 29	4	-3	0:56	Punt
9	PIT	PIT 20	6	25	3:20	Punt
10	PIT	WAS 14	6	14	2:23	Touchdown +7
11	WAS	WAS 30	7	17	2:17	Field goal +3
12	PIT	PIT 35	8	12	2:32	Punt
13	WAS	WAS 6	16	77	5:23	Touchdown +7
14	PIT	PIT 29	2	0	0:16	End of half
15	WAS	WAS 29	7	71	2:05	Touchdown +7
16	PIT	PIT 25	11	70	4:49	Touchdown +7
17	WAS	WAS 46	5	0	0:48	Punt
18	PIT	PIT 7	5	5	1:36	Punt
19	WAS	PIT 42	7	19	2:51	Field goal +3
20	PIT	PIT 24	4	-4	1:24	Interception
21	WAS	WAS 26	5	12	2:21	Punt
22	PIT	PIT 13	14	86	7:01	Fumble
23	WAS	WAS 1	4	4	1:19	Punt
24	PIT	WAS 46	7	51	3:24	Touchdown +7
25	WAS	WAS 35	7	23	1:04	Turnover on downs
26	PIT	PIT 42	5	9	1:18	End of game

9 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 86 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a fumble.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	14/28	195	3	1	3	7.3
Miles Killebrew	0/1	0	0	0	0	-2.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jaylen Warren	14	66	4.7	0	-1.8
Najee Harris	21	53	2.5	1	-3.8
Cordarrelle Patterson	3	14	4.7	0	-1.8
George Pickens	1	4	4.0	0	-0.1
Russell Wilson	4	3	0.8	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Pickens	5	7	91	1	27%	7.9
Mike Williams	1	1	32	1	4%	4.7
Jaylen Warren	2	2	29	0	8%	2.9
Calvin Austin	2	6	20	0	23%	-2.6
Pat Freiermuth	3	3	17	1	12%	4.8
Darnell Washington	1	3	6	0	12%	-0.7
James Pierre	0	1	0	0	4%	-2.7
Van Jefferson	0	2	0	0	8%	-1.8
MyCole Pruitt	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Patrick Queen	5	1	0.0	1
Joey Porter	5	0	0.0	0
DeShon Elliott	3	1	0.0	0
Elandon Roberts	3	1	0.0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	3	0	0.0	0
Preston Smith	3	0	1.0	0
Larry Ogunjobi	2	1	0.0	0
Donte Jackson	1	1	0.0	0
Connor Heyward	2	0	0.0	0
Cameron Heyward	2	0	2.0	1

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jayden Daniels	17/34	202	0	0	3	-9.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Austin Ekeler	13	44	3.4	2	3.2
Jeremy McNichols	4	7	1.8	1	-0.2
Jayden Daniels	3	5	1.7	0	-1.1
Chris Rodriguez	2	4	2.0	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	5	6	113	19%	8.0
Noah Brown	3	7	33	22%	-0.5
Zach Ertz	4	8	31	25%	-4.6
Luke McCaffrey	1	3	23	9%	0.7
Olamide Zaccheaus	1	3	8	9%	-1.8
Austin Ekeler	1	2	7	6%	-1.4
Dyami Brown	2	3	-13	9%	-3.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jeremy Chinn	4	7	0.0	1	1
Sheldon Day	3	4	0.0	0	0
Frankie Luvu	3	4	1.0	0	0
Bobby Wagner	2	4	0.0	0	0
Dante Fowler	3	2	2.0	0	0
Benjamin St-Juste	3	2	0.0	0	0
Quan Martin	1	4	0.0	0	0
Daron Payne	1	3	0.0	0	0
Mike Sainristil	2	2	0.0	0	1
Jeremy Reaves	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: WAS -1.5
Closing total: 45
PIT moneyline: +102
WAS moneyline: -122

Commanders closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45; the game landed 55 — over by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 57°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: PIT 13 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Dan Quinn