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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 10, 2024 · FedExField
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 10
It turned at Q4 1:28, 4th and 9, on Zach Ertz — 26.7 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:28 · 4th and 9
Zach Ertz
Steelers
(1:28) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to PIT 42 for 8 yards (23-D.Kazee). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Pittsburgh Steelers 28–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:28, Steelers +26.7% win probability on one snap.
26.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Steelers at 2 giveaways.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Steelers at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.18 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.25 expected points per dropback.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Steelers won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Commanders at 4 chunk plays.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(1:28) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to PIT 42 for 8 yards (23-D.Kazee). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Mike Williams's 32-yard touchdown catch with 2:27 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Mike Williams32-yd TD catch32-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell WilsonLead never changed again+728–279 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Steelerscategory by categoryCommanders
Steelers ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Commanders, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 72 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Commanders’s 59 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 5, Commanders 3.
Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's blitz rate sent, 59.5%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 8.2 points clear of the next team along.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.5 points.
PIT's early-down pass rate, 38.9%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 2.0 points clear of the next team along.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
WAS's blitz rate sent turned over: 22.6% in week 9 against 45.5% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.7 points.
WAS's play-action rate turned over: 44.0% in week 9 against 21.6% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
WAS's early-down pass rate turned over: 36.4% in week 9 against 56.8% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Steelers-15.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.2 vs their -6.3 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.37× that swing) · 72 snaps
Commanders0.8 ptsright on their number · +1.1 vs their -0.3 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 26% to 81%
Tendencies room →Steelers38.9%leaned — ran early · −9.3 vs their 48.2%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 54 early downs
Commanders56.8%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 55.1%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 58%
Tendencies room →Steelers24.2%right on their number · −2.7 vs their 26.9%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Commanders21.6%right on their number · −4.5 vs their 26.1%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26% to 126%
Fourth Down room →Steelers33.3%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 31.3%, and they swing ±21.3 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Commanders—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 51.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 65%
Tendencies room →Steelers59.5%off script — sent pressure · +29.9 vs their 29.6%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (+2.39× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Commanders45.5%inside their normal wobble · +8.6 vs their 36.9%, and they swing ±10.7 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 36%
Tendencies room →Steelers16.2%right on their number · −0.4 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Commanders18.2%inside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
PIT's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 59.5%, 29.9 points above their season mean of 29.6% and 2.4 times their own 12.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · WAS
17/34, 202 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-9.3 expected points added · -12.7% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
14/28, 195 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
7.3 expected points added · -2.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Mike Williams banked 8.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George PickensWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.5 | +7.5 | 81% | 82% | 27% | 34% | 1 car, 4 yd · 5/7, 91 yd, 1 TD |
| Russell WilsonQB · Starter QB | 18.1 | +4.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/28, 195 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 3 yd |
| Austin EkelerRB · Committee Back | 18.1 | +1.2 | 70% | 70% | 6% | 1% | 13 car, 44 yd, 2 TD · 1/2, 7 yd |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Featured Receiver | 16.3 | +6.6 | 89% | 92% | 19% | 31% | 5/6, 113 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB · Committee Back | 11.3 | −3.7 | 47% | 33% | 0% | — | 21 car, 53 yd, 1 TD |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.7 | +3.5 | 58% | 70% | 12% | 1% | 3/3, 17 yd, 1 TD |
| Mike WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.2 | +8.6 | 12% | 18% | 4% | 9% | 1/1, 32 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Committee Back | 9.5 | −0.4 | 45% | 52% | 8% | 0% | 14 car, 66 yd · 2/2, 29 yd |
| Jayden DanielsQB · Starter QB | 8.6 | −5.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/34, 202 yd · 3 car, 5 yd |
| Zach ErtzTE · Alpha Receiver | 7.1 | −4.7 | 77% | 84% | 25% | 12% | 4/8, 31 yd |
| Jeremy McNicholsRB | 6.7 | +2.3 | 30% | 27% | 0% | — | 4 car, 7 yd, 1 TD |
| Noah BrownWR · Featured Receiver | 6.3 | −3.8 | 89% | 97% | 22% | 30% | 3/7, 33 yd |
| Calvin AustinWR · Featured Receiver | 4.0 | −5.8 | 45% | 55% | 23% | 22% | 2/6, 20 yd |
| Luke McCaffreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −1.6 | 41% | 49% | 9% | 31% | 1/3, 23 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −3.1 | 25% | 30% | 9% | 7% | 1/3, 8 yd |
| Darnell WashingtonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −2.8 | 64% | 45% | 12% | 1% | 1/3, 6 yd |
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB | 1.4 | −0.2 | 10% | 12% | 0% | — | 3 car, 14 yd |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.7 | −5.6 | 16% | 19% | 9% | 0% | 2/3, -13 yd |
| Chris RodriguezRB | 0.4 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| MyCole PruittTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 44% | 24% | 4% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Connor HeywardTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 12% | 3% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Van JeffersonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.0 | 71% | 73% | 8% | 16% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Ben SkowronekWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 36% | 22% | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:27) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 18-M.Williams for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 2:27 · Steelers · 3rd & 9 at WAS 32 · gained 32 · +4.69 EP · +27.0% win probability
175 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 188 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 183. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 94 yards from the WAS 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Steelers6
Commanders0Steelers7Commanders0Steelers7Commanders6Steelers7Commanders7Steelers13Commanders7Steelers14Commanders7Steelers14Commanders10Steelers14Commanders16Steelers14Commanders17Steelers14Commanders23Steelers14Commanders24Steelers20Commanders24Steelers21Commanders24Steelers21Commanders27How the play was built
Two in the backfield, no huddle, a man in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
Steelers27Commanders27Steelers28Commanders27How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Steelers at Commanders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 14/28 | 195 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +7.3 |
| Miles Killebrew | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 14 | 66 | 4.7 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Najee Harris | 21 | 53 | 2.5 | 1 | −3.8 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 5 | 7 | 91 | 1 | 27% | +7.9 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 1 | 32 | 1 | 4% | +4.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Queen | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Joey Porter | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeShon Elliott | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elandon Roberts |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 17/34 | 202 | 0 | 0 | 3 | −9.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_10_PIT_WAS
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Commanders closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45; the game landed 55 — over by 10.0.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 14 |
| 4.7 |
| 0 |
| −1.8 |
| George Pickens | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 8% | +2.9 |
| Calvin Austin | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 23% | −2.6 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 12% | +4.8 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 12% | −0.7 |
| James Pierre | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −2.7 |
| Van Jefferson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −1.8 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Preston Smith | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Ogunjobi | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donte Jackson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Connor Heyward | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Heyward | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 |
| 44 |
| 3.4 |
| 2 |
| +3.2 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 1 | −0.2 |
| Jayden Daniels | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Chris Rodriguez | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 6 | 113 | 0 | 19% | +8.0 |
| Noah Brown | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 | 22% | −0.5 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 8 | 31 | 0 | 25% | −4.6 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 9% | +0.7 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 9% | −1.8 |
| Austin Ekeler | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6% | −1.4 |
| Dyami Brown | 2 | 3 | -13 | 0 | 9% | −3.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Chinn | 4 | 7 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Sheldon Day | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Frankie Luvu | 3 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Wagner | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Fowler | 3 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Benjamin St-Juste | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quan Martin | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron Payne | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Sainristil | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeremy Reaves | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
