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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 10, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 10
It turned at Q4 0:03, 2nd and 10, on Jake Moody — 18.6 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, 49ers +18.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:03 · 2nd and 10
Jake Moody
49ers
(:03) 4-J.Moody 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.
18.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 3 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.44 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at -0.05 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.24 expected points per snap, against Buccaneers at -0.06 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 17.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
(:03) 4-J.Moody 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jake Moody's 44-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Jake Moody44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.PepperLead never changed again+323–209 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categoryBuccaneers
49ers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 59 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 58 at 55%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 4, Buccaneers 4.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's play-action rate, 9.8%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 2.4 points clear of the next team along.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
TB's pass rate over expected, −10.7 pts, is past their previous low of −2.7 pts in week 7 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
TB's early-down pass rate turned over: 70.0% in week 9 against 44.2% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →49ers2.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their -2.3 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 59 snaps
Buccaneers-10.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −10.7 vs their -0.0 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.71× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 23% to 86%
Tendencies room →49ers62.5%inside their normal wobble · +8.0 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (+0.64× that swing) · 48 early downs
Buccaneers44.2%leaned — ran early · −11.0 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−1.09× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 43%
Tendencies room →49ers9.8%leaned — dropped back clean · −9.6 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−1.05× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Buccaneers15.6%right on their number · −3.7 vs their 19.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -51% to 94%
Fourth Down room →49ers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 21.7%.
Buccaneers0.0%inside their normal wobble · −21.4 vs their 21.4%, and they swing ±28.4 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 91%
Tendencies room →49ers31.3%leaned — sent pressure · +11.1 vs their 20.2%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+1.03× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Buccaneers51.2%right on their number · +7.3 vs their 43.9%, and they swing ±18.3 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 33%
Tendencies room →49ers6.3%inside their normal wobble · −7.5 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Buccaneers17.1%right on their number · +1.6 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
TB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -10.7 pts, 10.7 points below their season mean of -0.0 pts and 1.7 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
25/36, 353 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
17.4 expected points added · +8.7% completion over expected
Passing · TB
18/29, 116 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-1.5 expected points added · -8.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
George Kittle banked 6.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 23.8 | +4.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/36, 353 yd, 2 TD · 4 car, 17 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Committee Back | 19.0 | +2.1 | 61% | 63% | 24% | 4% | 10 car, 31 yd · 6/7, 39 yd, 1 TD |
| Bucky IrvingRB · Committee Back | 17.7 | +6.0 | 46% | 38% | 10% | 0% | 13 car, 73 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 14 yd |
| Ricky PearsallWR · Rotational Receiver | 17.3 | +5.5 | 64% | 69% | 18% | 25% | 4/6, 73 yd, 1 TD |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Committee Back | 16.7 | −1.8 | 88% | 90% | 21% | 15% | 13 car, 39 yd · 6/7, 68 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.3 | −3.0 | 91% | 93% | 32% | 34% | 7/11, 93 yd |
| George KittleTE · Rotational Receiver | 14.7 | +6.3 | 89% | 88% | 12% | 14% | 3/4, 57 yd, 1 TD |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.6 | −0.4 | 78% | 81% | 18% | 13% | 3 car, 14 yd · 5/6, 62 yd |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 8.9 | −3.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/29, 116 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 3 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Alpha Receiver | 8.5 | −4.0 | 93% | 97% | 28% | 21% | 5/8, 35 yd |
| Rakim JarrettWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −4.3 | 82% | 84% | 14% | 18% | 2/4, 10 yd |
| Ryan MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −3.8 | 85% | 91% | 10% | 27% | 1/3, 11 yd |
| Sterling ShepardWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −3.8 | 72% | 75% | 10% | 22% | 1 car, 3 yd · 1/3, 7 yd |
| Jordan MasonRB | 0.5 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Isaac GuerendoRB | 0.0 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 19% | 14% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Ronnie BellWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 16% | 12% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jacob CowingWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Sean TuckerRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Trey PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.0 | 25% | 22% | 3% | 14% | 0/1, 0 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:03) 4-J.Moody 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.
Q4 0:03 · 49ers · 2nd & 10 at TB 26 · gained nothing · +0.65 EP · +25.4% win probability
156 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 82 yards from the SF 8 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
49ers6
Buccaneers049ers7Buccaneers049ers10Buccaneers049ers10Buccaneers349ers10Buccaneers949ers10Buccaneers1049ers13Buccaneers1049ers13Buccaneers1649ers13Buccaneers17How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the receiver created it himself.
49ers19Buccaneers1749ers20Buccaneers17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
49ers20Buccaneers20How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
49ers23Buccaneers20Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 25/36 | 353 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +17.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 | −3.3 |
| Brock Purdy | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Deebo Samuel |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jauan Jennings | 7 | 11 | 93 | 0 | 32% | +4.0 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 4 | 6 | 73 | 1 | 18% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Vondre Campbell | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malik Mustapha | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Warner |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 18/29 | 116 | 1 | 0 | 2 | −1.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_10_SF_TB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -6.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 50.5; the game landed 43 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 14 |
| 4.7 |
| 0 |
| −0.1 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Isaac Guerendo | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| +2.4 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 7 | 68 | 0 | 21% | +4.6 |
| Deebo Samuel | 5 | 6 | 62 | 0 | 18% | +3.9 |
| George Kittle | 3 | 4 | 57 | 1 | 12% | +5.9 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Renardo Green | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Nick Bosa | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac Yiadom | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Okuayinonu | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Anderson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 13 | 73 | 5.6 | 1 | +3.2 |
| Rachaad White | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | −2.6 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 6 | 7 | 39 | 1 | 24% | +5.0 |
| Cade Otton | 5 | 8 | 35 | 0 | 28% | +1.8 |
| Bucky Irving | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 10% | −0.6 |
| Ryan Miller | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 10% | −0.3 |
| Rakim Jarrett | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 14% | −1.0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 10% | −2.3 |
| Trey Palmer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Whitehead | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antoine Winfield | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lavonte David | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Hayes | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Christian Izien | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K.J. Britt | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zyon McCollum | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.J. Russell | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calijah Kancey | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Tryon | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
