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2024 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 10, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
49ersSan Francisco23
BY 3final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay20
San Francisco 49ers 23 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20. Final.
49ers -6.5 no coverU 50.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 10
San Francisco 49ers 23, Buccaneers 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:03, 2nd and 10, on Jake Moody — 18.6 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:03 · 2nd and 10
Jake Moody
49ers
(:03) 4-J.Moody 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.
49ers closed -6.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
San Francisco 49ers 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, 49ers +18.6% win probability on one snap.
18.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Bucky IrvingBuccaneersQ4 14:24(14:24) 7-B.Irving right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.9pts
Baker MayfieldBuccaneersQ4 1:18(1:18) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 88-C.Otton (59-D.Campbell). PENALTY on SF-54-F.Warner, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at SF 47 - No Play.
15.0pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 3 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.44 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at -0.05 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.24 expected points per snap, against Buccaneers at -0.06 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on 49ers158 of 165 plays carry both curves
(:03) 4-J.Moody 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.
Swing −18.6 for BuccaneersExpected points −0.65 for BuccaneersThe model had Buccaneers 7 points higher than the market did.play 164
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:03TB +19% win prob(:03) 4-J.Moody 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.
4th · 14:24TB +17% win prob(14:24) 7-B.Irving right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:18TB +15% win prob(1:18) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 88-C.Otton (59-D.Campbell). PENALTY on SF-54-F.Warner, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at SF 47 - No Play.
4th · 11:54SF +14% win prob(11:54) 4-J.Moody 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.
4th · 7:14TB +12% win prob(7:14) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:55TB +12% win prob(8:55) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 23-C.McCaffrey to TB 23 for 30 yards (31-A.Winfield) [92-W.Gholston].
4th · 3:13
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jake Moody's 44-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:44Chase McLaughlin·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap E.Deckers+320–20
4th0:03Jake Moody·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.PepperLead never changed again+323–20
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
49erscategory by categoryBuccaneers
49ers6–2Buccaneers
414Total yards215
7.0Yards per play3.7
53%Success rate40%
45%Third-down rate36%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays3
20First downs14
3Sacks taken2
0Turnovers0
The read
49ers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.2449ers: +0.24 expected points added per play
−0.06Buccaneers: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.4449ers: +0.44 expected points added per play
−0.05Buccaneers: −0.05 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.2149ers: −0.21 expected points added per play
−0.06Buccaneers: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 59 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 58 at 55%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 4, Buccaneers 4.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SF's play-action rate, 9.8%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 2.4 points clear of the next team along.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points.
low through week 10Against their seasonOver Expected
TB's pass rate over expected, −10.7 pts, is past their previous low of −2.7 pts in week 7 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
TB's early-down pass rate turned over: 70.0% in week 9 against 44.2% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · −7.5 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Buccaneers17.1%
right on their number · +1.6 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteTB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -10.7 pts, 10.7 points below their season mean of -0.0 pts and 1.7 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Jake Moody+25% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 4-J.Moody 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.
Q4 0:03 · 49ers · 2nd & 10 at TB 26 · gained nothing · +0.65 EP · +25.4% win probability
156 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 82 yards from the SF 8 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
52%
Yards
628
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.1061%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.1578%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR21+0.3648%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.1350%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.4840%
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Buccaneers 39
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 4 to the Buccaneers 31
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
49ers6Buccaneers0
49ers7Buccaneers0
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 29 to the Buccaneers 46
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Buccaneers 47
The period ended5 plays, from the 49ers 13 to the 49ers 17
2nd quarter40 plays
49ers10Buccaneers0
Field goal12 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Buccaneers 10
49ers10Buccaneers3
Field goal14 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the 49ers 9
No good6 plays, from the 49ers 32 to the Buccaneers 31
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 39 to the Buccaneers 44
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Buccaneers 36
49ers10Buccaneers9
49ers10Buccaneers10
Touchdown5 plays, from the 49ers 21 to the 49ers 9
49ers13Buccaneers10
Field goal14 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Buccaneers 9
The period ended10 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the 49ers 34
4th quarter56 plays
49ers13Buccaneers16
49ers13Buccaneers17
Touchdown3 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the 49ers 12
No good6 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Buccaneers 32
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 40 to the Buccaneers 44
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw8.2 seconds
49ers19Buccaneers17
49ers20Buccaneers17
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 36 to the Buccaneers 11
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Buccaneers 31
No good5 plays, from the 49ers 39 to the Buccaneers 26
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.0 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw7.4 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
49ers20Buccaneers20
Field goal16 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the 49ers 5
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
49ers23Buccaneers20
Field goal8 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the Buccaneers 26
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -6.5
Closing total
50.5
49ers moneyline
-298
Buccaneers moneyline
+240
49ers closed -6.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 50.5; the game landed 43 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 83°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the south-east; clear.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
49ers 14 days · Buccaneers 6 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Todd Bowles
SF +11% win prob
(3:13) 4-J.Moody 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.
3rd · 14:05TB +10% win prob(14:05) 16-T.Gill punts 44 yards to SF 20, Center-86-E.Deckers. 19-J.Cowing MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-98-A.Nelson at SF 21.
