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2024 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 10, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium

San Francisco 49ersWinner

23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

20

SF -6.5 no coverU 50.5 ✓

San Francisco 49ers 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, TB +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TB ↑SF ↓
Q4 · 0:03SF 23 — TB 20SF ball · 2nd & 10SF 81%

(:03) 4-J.Moody 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:03TB +19% win prob(:03) 4-J.Moody 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.
  2. Q4 · 14:24TB +17% win prob(14:24) 7-B.Irving right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 1:18TB +15% win prob(1:18) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 88-C.Otton (59-D.Campbell). PENALTY on SF-54-F.Warner, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at SF 47 - No Play.
  4. Q4 · 11:54SF +14% win prob(11:54) 4-J.Moody 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 4:25SF Touchdown

    (4:25) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 14-R.Pearsall for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 7 — TB 0
  2. Q2 · 8:55SF Field goal

    (8:55) 4-J.Moody 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: SF 10 — TB 0
  3. Q2 · 1:17TB Field goal

    (1:17) 4-C.McLaughlin 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: SF 10 — TB 3
  4. Q3 · 12:03TB Touchdown

    (12:03) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 1-R.White for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 10 — TB 10
  5. Q3 · 4:25SF Field goal

    (4:25) 4-J.Moody 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: SF 13 — TB 10
  6. Q4 · 14:24TB Touchdown

    (14:24) 7-B.Irving right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 13 — TB 17
  7. Q4 · 7:14SF Touchdown

    (7:14) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 20 — TB 17
  8. Q4 · 0:44TB Field goal

    (:44) 4-C.McLaughlin 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: SF 20 — TB 20
  9. Q4 · 0:03SF Field goal

    (:03) 4-J.Moody 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: SF 23 — TB 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric49ersBuccaneers
Offensive plays5958
Total yards414 (edge)215
Yards per play7.0 (edge)3.7
Expected points added / play0.24 (edge)-0.06
Success rate53% (edge)40%
Dropback rate69%55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.44 (edge)-0.05
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.21-0.06 (edge)
Third downs5/11 (edge)5/14
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps20 (edge)14
Sacks taken32 (edge)
Turnovers00

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs -0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

25/36, 353 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

17.4 expected points added · +8.7% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

18/29, 116 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-1.5 expected points added · -8.5% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Bucky IrvingRB

13 att, 73 yds, 1 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

13 att, 39 yds, 0 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Jauan JenningsWR

7/11 for 93 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Ricky PearsallWR

4/6 for 73 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1SFSF 308312:57Punt
2TBTB 47273:57Punt
3SFSF 297663:51Touchdown +7
4TBTB 306162:08Punt
5SFSF 1314678:14Field goal +3
6TBTB 3014587:39Field goal +3
7SFSF 326370:49Missed field goal
8TBTB 39400:17Punt
9SFSF 8100:08End of half
10TBTB 30561:05Punt
11TBSF 215211:57Touchdown +7
12SFSF 3014507:37Field goal +3
13TBTB 3012705:03Touchdown +7
14SFSF 306382:28Missed field goal
15TBTB 40441:33Punt
16SFSF 367523:15Touchdown +7
17TBTB 305-92:05Punt
18SFSF 395341:48Missed field goal
19TBTB 3411222:28Field goal +3
20SFSF 357390:41Field goal +3

9 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 70 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brock Purdy25/3635320317.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Christian McCaffrey13393.00-3.3
Brock Purdy4174.301.2
Deebo Samuel3144.70-0.1
Jordan Mason155.000.1
Isaac Guerendo100.00-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jauan Jennings71193032%4.0
Ricky Pearsall4673118%2.4
Christian McCaffrey6768021%4.6
Deebo Samuel5662018%3.9
George Kittle3457112%5.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
De'Vondre Campbell430.001
Malik Mustapha250.000
Fred Warner430.000
Deommodore Lenoir240.000
Renardo Green410.002
Nick Bosa311.000
Ji'Ayir Brown120.000
Isaac Yiadom210.000
Sam Okuayinonu200.000
Evan Anderson110.000

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield18/29116102-1.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bucky Irving13735.613.2
Rachaad White10313.10-2.0
Baker Mayfield331.00-2.6
Sterling Shepard133.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Rachaad White6739124%5.0
Cade Otton5835028%1.8
Bucky Irving3314010%-0.6
Ryan Miller1311010%-0.3
Rakim Jarrett2410014%-1.0
Sterling Shepard137010%-2.3
Trey Palmer01003%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jordan Whitehead460.000
Antoine Winfield430.001
Lavonte David340.000
Josh Hayes330.002
Christian Izien220.000
K.J. Britt120.000
Zyon McCollum300.000
J.J. Russell120.000
Calijah Kancey301.000
Joe Tryon201.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SF -6.5
Closing total
50.5
SF moneyline
-298
TB moneyline
+240

49ers closed -6.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 43 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
85°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
SF 14 days · TB 6 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Todd Bowles