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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:37 AM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2024 · Empower Field at Mile High
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 11
It turned at Q2 9:15, 3rd and 10, on Marvin Mims — 12.1 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Denver Broncos 38–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 9:15, Broncos +12.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 9:15 · 3rd and 10
Marvin Mims
Broncos
(9:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 19-M.Mims to ATL 30 for 37 yards (3-J.Bates).
12.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Broncos won this one — +0.38 expected points per snap, against Falcons at -0.27 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Broncos won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Falcons at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.64 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.16 expected points per dropback.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Broncos won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 4 points apart.
(9:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 19-M.Mims to ATL 30 for 37 yards (3-J.Bates).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Nate Adkins's 12-yard touchdown catch with 10:36 left in the 1st put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Falconscategory by categoryBroncos
Broncos ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.64 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 55 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Broncos’s 60 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 1, Broncos 5.
Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.38 expected points added per play vs -0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
DEN's play-action rate turned over: 18.2% in week 10 against 40.0% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Falcons-5.0 ptsright on their number · +3.0 vs their -8.1 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 55 snaps
Broncos2.3 ptsright on their number · +2.0 vs their 0.3 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 78%
Tendencies room →Falcons60.0%inside their normal wobble · +10.9 vs their 49.1%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+0.96× that swing) · 40 early downs
Broncos52.1%right on their number · −3.7 vs their 55.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 54%
Tendencies room →Falcons8.8%inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Broncos40.0%leaned — faked the run · +13.0 vs their 27.0%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+1.22× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -58% to 135%
Fourth Down room →Falcons—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 50.7%.
Broncos—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 28.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 73%
Tendencies room →Falcons31.4%right on their number · +4.5 vs their 27.0%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Broncos26.5%right on their number · −7.5 vs their 33.9%, and they swing ±15.4 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 39%
Tendencies room →Falcons8.6%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Broncos17.6%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
DEN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 40.0%, 13.0 points above their season mean of 27.0% and 1.2 times their own 10.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · DEN
Bo NixQB
28/33, 307 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
22.7 expected points added · +13.4% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
18/27, 173 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-7.3 expected points added · -1.0% completion over expected
Receiving · DEN
7/8 for 78 yds, 0 TD
25% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Bo Nix banked 12.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo NixQB · Starter QB | 28.8 | +12.6 | 95% | — | 0% | — | 28/33, 307 yd, 4 TD · 2 car, 5 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 18.7 | +6.9 | 52% | 57% | 16% | 0% | 9 car, 59 yd, 1 TD · 4/5, 28 yd |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 15.2 | +8.7 | 44% | 43% | 13% | 9% | 4/4, 52 yd, 1 TD |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.8 | +0.7 | 84% | 91% | 25% | 56% | 7/8, 78 yd |
| Marvin MimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.3 | +7.9 | 23% | 29% | 6% | 4% | 3 car, 4 yd · 2/2, 49 yd, 1 TD |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Featured Receiver | 10.6 | +1.8 | 98% | 100% | 21% | 7% | 6/6, 46 yd |
| Devaughn VeleWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.6 | +2.1 | 68% | 71% | 16% | 33% | 4/5, 66 yd |
| Bijan RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 10.3 | −0.7 | 71% | 77% | 14% | 1% | 12 car, 35 yd · 4/4, 28 yd |
| Troy FranklinWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.5 | +6.0 | 44% | 51% | 6% | 0% | 2/2, 15 yd, 1 TD |
| Drake LondonWR · Featured Receiver | 9.1 | −1.5 | 76% | 86% | 24% | 39% | 3/7, 61 yd |
| Nate AdkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.2 | +5.9 | 48% | 29% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 12 yd, 1 TD |
| Audric EstimeRB | 5.5 | −1.9 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Kirk CousinsQB · Starter QB | 4.9 | −2.0 | 78% | — | 0% | — | 18/27, 173 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, 0 yd |
| Darnell MooneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | −1.5 | 58% | 60% | 14% | 26% | 2/4, 27 yd |
| KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | +1.6 | 44% | 40% | 7% | 1% | 2/2, 22 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −2.5 | 75% | 77% | 10% | 15% | 1/3, 9 yd |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 1.9 | −0.1 | 15% | 9% | 0% | — | 4 car, 19 yd |
| Jase McClellanRB | 1.5 | −2.6 | 22% | 14% | 0% | — | 8 car, 15 yd |
| Ross DwelleyTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.2 | 44% | 31% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Michael BurtonRB | 1.0 | −4.0 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Michael PenixQB | 1.0 | −0.3 | 22% | — | 0% | — | 2/4, 24 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB | 0.9 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Casey WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Avery WilliamsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 60% | 54% | 3% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 19-M.Mims to ATL 30 for 37 yards (3-J.Bates).
Q2 9:15 · Broncos · 3rd & 10 at DEN 33 · gained 37 · +3.50 EP · +8.9% win probability
150 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 77 yards from the DEN 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Falcons0
Broncos6Falcons0Broncos7Falcons3Broncos7Falcons3Broncos13Falcons3Broncos14Falcons6Broncos14Falcons6Broncos20Falcons6Broncos21Falcons6Broncos27Falcons6Broncos28Falcons6Broncos31Falcons6Broncos37Falcons6Broncos38Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Falcons at Broncos, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 18/27 | 173 | 0 | 1 | 3 | −7.3 |
| Michael Penix | 2/4 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 0 | −3.3 |
| Jase McClellan | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 | −5.1 |
| Kirk Cousins |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 3 | 7 | 61 | 0 | 24% | −3.5 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 6 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 21% | +1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jessie Bates | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kaden Elliss | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Landman | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Terrell |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 28/33 | 307 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +22.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_11_ATL_DEN
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Broncos closed -2 and covered, winning by 32.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 44 — under by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| −1.4 |
| Bijan Robinson | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 14% | +2.2 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 14% | −0.5 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 7% | +3.9 |
| Kyle Pitts | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 10% | −0.9 |
| Ross Dwelley | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| Casey Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Lorenzo Carter | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Clark Phillips | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Simmons | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Judon | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Onyemata | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Richie Grant | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 |
| 59 |
| 6.6 |
| 1 |
| +3.2 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Audric Estime | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Bo Nix | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Marvin Mims | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Michael Burton | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 7 | 8 | 78 | 0 | 25% | +5.3 |
| Devaughn Vele | 4 | 5 | 66 | 0 | 16% | +6.2 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 4 | 4 | 52 | 1 | 13% | +6.0 |
| Marvin Mims | 2 | 2 | 49 | 1 | 6% | +7.8 |
| Javonte Williams | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 16% | +1.0 |
| Troy Franklin | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 6% | +2.2 |
| Nate Adkins | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 3% | +1.7 |
| Audric Estime | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 9% | −2.0 |
| Adam Trautman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −2.1 |
| Michael Burton | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Quan McMillian | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nik Bonitto | 4 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devon Key | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Riley Moss | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Cody Barton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| John Franklin-Myers | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dondrea Tillman | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Cunningham | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Allen | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
