2024 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2024 · Empower Field at Mile High

Atlanta Falcons

Denver BroncosWinner

DEN -2 ✓U 44.5 ✓Broncos closed -2 and covered, winning by 32.

Denver Broncos 38–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 9:15, DEN +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 9:15ATL 3 — DEN 7DEN ball · 3rd & 10DEN 61%

(9:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 19-M.Mims to ATL 30 for 37 yards (3-J.Bates).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 9:15DEN +12% win prob(9:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 19-M.Mims to ATL 30 for 37 yards (3-J.Bates).
Q2 · 2:53DEN +6% win prob(2:53) 6-Y.Koo 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q1 · 12:17DEN +6% win prob(12:17) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 17-D.Vele to ATL 34 for 14 yards (22-C.Phillips).
Q2 · 6:25DEN +6% win prob(6:25) 33-J.Williams left tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:36DEN Touchdown
(10:36) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 45-N.Adkins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 0 — DEN 7
Q1 · 1:37ATL Field goal
(1:37) 6-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: ATL 3 — DEN 7
Q2 · 6:25DEN Touchdown
(6:25) 33-J.Williams left tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 3 — DEN 14
Q2 · 2:53ATL Field goal
(2:53) 6-Y.Koo 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: ATL 6 — DEN 14
Q2 · 0:30DEN Touchdown
(:30) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 19-M.Mims for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 6 — DEN 21
Q3 · 9:09DEN Touchdown
(9:09) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 16-T.Franklin for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 6 — DEN 28
Q4 · 13:12DEN Field goal
(13:12) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: ATL 6 — DEN 31
Q4 · 9:12DEN Touchdown
(9:12) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 84-L.Humphrey for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 6 — DEN 38

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Broncos
Offensive plays	55	60
Total yards	226	400 (edge)
Yards per play	4.1	6.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.27	0.38 (edge)
Success rate	36%	53% (edge)
Dropback rate	62%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	0.64 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.46	0.00 (edge)
Third downs	4/13	6/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.38 expected points added per play vs -0.27.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

28/33, 307 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

22.7 expected points added · +13.4% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Kirk CousinsQB

18/27, 173 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-7.3 expected points added · -1.0% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Javonte WilliamsRB

9 att, 59 yds, 1 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

12 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

7/8 for 78 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Devaughn VeleWR

4/5 for 66 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 30	11	68	4:29	Touchdown +7
2	ATL	ATL 30	14	63	8:58	Field goal +3
3	DEN	DEN 30	5	0	1:33	Punt
4	ATL	ATL 16	7	15	2:37	Punt
5	DEN	DEN 23	10	82	6:07	Touchdown +7
6	ATL	ATL 30	9	38	3:28	Field goal +3
7	DEN	DEN 30	12	70	2:23	Touchdown +7
8	ATL	ATL 30	4	38	0:25	End of half
9	ATL	ATL 30	5	3	1:22	Punt
10	DEN	ATL 45	11	45	4:33	Touchdown +7
11	ATL	ATL 30	5	27	1:09	Interception
12	DEN	DEN 46	6	26	2:21	Punt
13	ATL	ATL 6	6	6	2:50	Punt
14	DEN	DEN 32	8	41	4:37	Field goal +3
15	ATL	ATL 30	5	-3	1:53	Punt
16	DEN	DEN 41	5	59	2:12	Touchdown +7
17	ATL	ATL 30	10	24	4:10	Punt
18	DEN	DEN 4	4	9	1:50	Punt
19	ATL	50	5	15	3:03	End of game

8 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 82 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	18/27	173	0	1	3	-7.3
Michael Penix	2/4	24	0	0	1	1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Bijan Robinson	12	35	2.9	-3.3
Jase McClellan	8	15	1.9	-5.1
Kirk Cousins	1	0	0.0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Drake London	3	7	61	24%	-3.5
Ray-Ray McCloud	6	6	46	21%	1.2
Bijan Robinson	4	4	28	14%	2.2
Darnell Mooney	2	4	27	14%	-0.5
KhaDarel Hodge	2	2	22	7%	3.9
Kyle Pitts	1	3	9	10%	-0.9
Ross Dwelley	1	1	5	3%	0.1
Casey Washington	0	1	0	3%	-0.4
Tyler Allgeier	1	1	-1	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jessie Bates	5	5	0.0	1
Kaden Elliss	7	2	0.0	0
Nate Landman	5	3	0.0	0
A.J. Terrell	2	3	0.0	0
Lorenzo Carter	1	3	0.0	0
Clark Phillips	3	1	0.0	0
Justin Simmons	3	1	0.0	0
Matt Judon	3	0	1.0	0
David Onyemata	1	2	0.0	0
Richie Grant	2	0	0.0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bo Nix	28/33	307	4	0	1	22.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Javonte Williams	9	59	6.6	1	3.2
Jaleel McLaughlin	4	19	4.8	0	0.1
Audric Estime	6	16	2.7	0	-1.6
Bo Nix	2	5	2.5	0	-0.6
Marvin Mims	3	4	1.3	0	-0.8
Michael Burton	2	2	1.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Courtland Sutton	7	8	78	0	25%	5.3
Devaughn Vele	4	5	66	0	16%	6.2
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	4	4	52	1	13%	6.0
Marvin Mims	2	2	49	1	6%	7.8
Javonte Williams	4	5	28	0	16%	1.0
Troy Franklin	2	2	15	1	6%	2.2
Nate Adkins	1	1	12	1	3%	1.7
Audric Estime	3	3	9	0	9%	-2.0
Adam Trautman	0	1	0	0	3%	-2.1
Michael Burton	1	1	-2	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Ja'Quan McMillian	5	4	0.0	0	1
Nik Bonitto	4	3	2.0	0	0
Devon Key	2	3	0.0	0	0
Riley Moss	5	0	0.0	0	2
Cody Barton	2	1	0.0	1	1
John Franklin-Myers	2	1	0.0	0	0
Dondrea Tillman	1	2	0.0	0	0
Zach Cunningham	1	2	0.0	0	0
D.J. Jones	2	1	0.0	0	0
Zach Allen	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -2
Closing total: 44.5
ATL moneyline: +114
DEN moneyline: -135

Broncos closed -2 and covered, winning by 32.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 44 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 55°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Alan Eck
Rest: ATL 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: Raheem Morris vs Sean Payton