2024 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2024 · Acrisure Stadium

Baltimore Ravens

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

BAL -3 upsetU 48 ✓Ravens closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Pittsburgh Steelers 18–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q1 5:14, BAL +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 5:14BAL 0 — PIT 3BAL ball · 4th & 6BAL 55%

(5:14) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 5:14BAL +15% win prob(5:14) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q2 · 0:38BAL +15% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 80-I.Likely to BAL 13 for 4 yards (6-P.Queen; 95-K.Benton). FUMBLES (6-P.Queen), touched at BAL 17, RECOVERED by PIT-6-P.Queen at BAL 19. 6-P.Queen to BAL 19 for no gain (65-P.Mekari). Penalty on PIT-39-M.Fitzpatrick, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. Penalty on BAL-65-P.Mekari, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting.
Q4 · 1:06BAL +13% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-L.Jackson pass is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q3 · 2:44PIT +13% win prob(2:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-G.Pickens pushed ob at BAL 12 for 37 yards (21-B.Stephens).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:43PIT Field goal
(10:43) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.
Score after this play: BAL 0 — PIT 3
Q2 · 7:44PIT Field goal
(7:44) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.
Score after this play: BAL 0 — PIT 6
Q2 · 1:19BAL Touchdown
(1:19) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 7 — PIT 6
Q2 · 0:10PIT Field goal
(:10) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.
Score after this play: BAL 7 — PIT 9
Q3 · 10:51PIT Field goal
(10:51) 9-C.Boswell 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.
Score after this play: BAL 7 — PIT 12
Q3 · 6:17BAL Field goal
(6:17) 9-J.Tucker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: BAL 10 — PIT 12
Q3 · 0:59PIT Field goal
(:59) 9-C.Boswell 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.
Score after this play: BAL 10 — PIT 15
Q4 · 3:40PIT Field goal
(3:40) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.
Score after this play: BAL 10 — PIT 18
Q4 · 1:11BAL Touchdown
(1:11) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 4-Z.Flowers for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: BAL 16 — PIT 18

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Steelers
Offensive plays	54	72
Total yards	330 (edge)	305
Yards per play	6.1 (edge)	4.2
Expected points added / play	-0.11 (edge)	-0.25
Success rate	41% (edge)	32%
Dropback rate	67%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.18 (edge)	-0.30
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04 (edge)	-0.18
Third downs	4/11 (edge)	4/16
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	6
First downs gained on snaps	15	16 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Ravens outgained Steelers 330–305 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

16/33, 207 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-2.4 expected points added · -10.7% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Russell WilsonQB

23/36, 205 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-11.6 expected points added · +1.7% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

13 att, 65 yds, 1 TD

-2.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

18 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

-4.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

George PickensWR

8/12 for 89 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Isaiah LikelyTE

4/5 for 75 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 0.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 29	3	7	0:49	Fumble
2	PIT	BAL 42	8	28	3:31	Field goal +3
3	BAL	BAL 30	5	10	2:01	Punt
4	PIT	PIT 20	4	4	1:51	Punt
5	BAL	BAL 25	5	46	1:38	Missed field goal
6	PIT	PIT 37	4	9	2:03	Turnover on downs
7	BAL	PIT 46	6	14	1:29	Missed field goal
8	PIT	PIT 40	4	-10	1:50	Punt
9	BAL	BAL 17	6	30	2:17	Punt
10	PIT	PIT 16	10	50	4:52	Field goal +3
11	BAL	BAL 30	5	14	1:30	Punt
12	PIT	PIT 31	4	-2	1:02	Punt
13	BAL	BAL 20	7	75	3:51	Touchdown +7
14	PIT	PIT 30	5	9	0:38	Punt
15	BAL	BAL 9	1	4	0:09	Fumble
16	PIT	BAL 19	4	5	0:22	Field goal +3
17	BAL	BAL 30	2	0	0:07	End of half
18	PIT	PIT 30	9	26	4:14	Field goal +3
19	BAL	BAL 30	12	29	4:34	Field goal +3
20	PIT	PIT 30	11	81	5:16	Field goal +3
21	BAL	BAL 14	5	2	1:35	Punt
22	PIT	PIT 32	10	63	4:58	Interception
23	BAL	BAL 20	2	25	1:09	Interception
24	PIT	PIT 36	9	32	4:39	Field goal +3
25	BAL	BAL 31	11	74	2:29	Touchdown +6
26	PIT	PIT 30	6	10	1:06	End of game

9 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 81 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	16/33	207	1	1	2	-2.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	13	65	5.0	1	-2.8
Lamar Jackson	4	46	11.5	0	3.2
Justice Hill	2	13	6.5	0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Isaiah Likely	4	5	75	0	16%	0.9
Zay Flowers	2	6	39	1	19%	0.9
Rashod Bateman	2	5	30	0	16%	0.7
Justice Hill	4	7	28	0	23%	-5.2
Mark Andrews	2	3	22	0	10%	1.7
Tylan Wallace	1	1	8	0	3%	0.8
Patrick Ricard	1	1	5	0	3%	0.1
Diontae Johnson	0	2	0	0	6%	-2.0
Nelson Agholor	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Ar'Darius Washington	5	7	0.0	0
Roquan Smith	7	5	0.0	0
Kyle Hamilton	9	1	0.0	0
Trenton Simpson	2	5	0.0	0
Nnamdi Madubuike	2	3	0.0	0
Malik Harrison	3	2	0.0	0
Odafe Oweh	3	2	2.5	0
Brandon Stephens	3	2	0.5	2
Broderick Washington	1	2	1.0	0
Tavius Robinson	1	2	0.0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	23/36	205	0	1	4	-11.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Najee Harris	18	63	3.5	-4.5
Jaylen Warren	9	41	4.6	0.4
Justin Fields	2	17	8.5	0.7
Russell Wilson	4	1	0.3	-2.6
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	0	0.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
George Pickens	8	12	89	38%	4.9
Darnell Washington	2	4	42	13%	-1.6
Najee Harris	4	5	30	16%	0.7
Jaylen Warren	4	4	27	13%	-1.0
Pat Freiermuth	2	2	14	6%	0.3
Ben Skowronek	1	1	4	3%	-0.0
Van Jefferson	0	1	0	3%	-1.2
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	1	0	3%	-0.8
Calvin Austin	1	2	-1	6%	-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Patrick Queen	3	7	0.0	0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	4	3	0.0	0	0
Cameron Heyward	2	2	0.0	0	2
Beanie Bishop	3	1	0.0	0	0
T.J. Watt	3	0	1.0	0	0
Keeanu Benton	1	2	0.0	0	0
Payton Wilson	2	0	0.0	1	1
Nick Herbig	1	1	0.0	0	0
James Pierre	1	0	0.0	0	0
Mark Robinson	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -3
Closing total: 48
BAL moneyline: -175
PIT moneyline: +145

Ravens closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48; the game landed 34 — under by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 52°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: BAL 10 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Mike Tomlin

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.