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live · 12s tick · as of 12:25 PM ET · 9 min ago · 1 live · 12 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2024 · Acrisure Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 11
It turned at Q1 5:14, 4th and 6, on Justin Tucker — 14.7 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Pittsburgh Steelers 18–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q1 5:14, Steelers +14.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:14 · 4th and 6
Justin Tucker
Steelers
(5:14) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
14.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Steelers at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Ravens at 3 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 41% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.18 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(5:14) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Chris Boswell's 32-yard field goal with 0:10 left in the 2nd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Chris Boswell32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.KuntzLead never changed again+37–9
Zay Flowers16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Lamar Jackson · two-point no good+616–189 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ravenscategory by categorySteelers
Ravens ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 54 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Steelers’s 72 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 2, Steelers 4.
Ravens outgained Steelers 330-305 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
PIT's pass rate over expected, +0.8 pts, is past their previous high of −1.2 pts in week 5 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
72 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 11 pts
Over Expected room →Ravens-3.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.7 vs their -7.7 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 53 snaps
Steelers0.8 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +7.1 vs their -6.3 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 72 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 81%
Tendencies room →Ravens59.5%inside their normal wobble · +12.4 vs their 47.1%, and they swing ±13.2 week to week (+0.94× that swing) · 42 early downs
Steelers49.1%right on their number · +0.9 vs their 48.2%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 55 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 58%
Tendencies room →Ravens19.4%inside their normal wobble · −6.0 vs their 25.4%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Steelers31.7%right on their number · +4.8 vs their 26.9%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Ravens—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 40.0%.
Steelers33.3%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 31.3%, and they swing ±21.3 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 62%
Tendencies room →Ravens22.0%right on their number · −0.8 vs their 22.7%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Steelers50.0%leaned — sent pressure · +20.4 vs their 29.6%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (+1.64× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 36%
Tendencies room →Ravens17.1%right on their number · +0.4 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Steelers16.7%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
PIT's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 20.4 points above their season mean of 29.6% and 1.6 times their own 12.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · BAL
16/33, 207 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-2.4 expected points added · -10.7% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
23/36, 205 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-11.6 expected points added · +1.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Zay Flowers banked 1.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George PickensWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.9 | −3.8 | 88% | 100% | 38% | 73% | 8/12, 89 yd |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 14.9 | −1.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/33, 207 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 46 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB · Committee Back | 13.3 | −3.8 | 58% | 54% | 16% | 0% | 18 car, 63 yd · 4/5, 30 yd |
| Zay FlowersWR · Featured Receiver | 11.9 | +1.5 | 84% | 86% | 19% | 29% | 2/6, 39 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Receiving Back | 10.8 | +0.5 | 33% | 34% | 13% | 0% | 9 car, 41 yd · 4/4, 27 yd |
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 10.5 | +0.2 | 49% | 25% | 0% | — | 13 car, 65 yd, 1 TD |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.5 | +0.5 | 49% | 61% | 16% | 18% | 4/5, 75 yd |
| Justice HillRB · Receiving Back | 8.1 | −2.7 | 49% | 72% | 23% | 4% | 2 car, 13 yd · 4/7, 28 yd |
| Russell WilsonQB · Starter QB | 6.3 | −13.8 | 96% | — | 0% | — | 23/36, 205 yd, 1 INT · 4 car, 1 yd |
| Darnell WashingtonTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.2 | −2.2 | 58% | 44% | 13% | 14% | 2/4, 42 yd |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | −3.5 | 80% | 83% | 16% | 11% | 2/5, 30 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −0.7 | 61% | 58% | 10% | 14% | 2/3, 22 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | +0.5 | 58% | 71% | 6% | 5% | 2/2, 14 yd |
| Tylan WallaceWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.6 | 15% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Justin FieldsQB | 1.7 | +0.5 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Patrick RicardRB | 1.5 | +0.1 | 36% | 25% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Ben SkowronekWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | +0.4 | 26% | 20% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB | 1.0 | −0.9 | 15% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 1 car, 0 yd · 1/1, 0 yd |
| Calvin AustinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.9 | −2.7 | 33% | 54% | 6% | 14% | 1/2, -1 yd |
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.0 | 18% | 17% | 6% | 22% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.2 | 39% | 42% | 3% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Keaton MitchellRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Charlie KolarTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 15% | 11% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Connor HeywardRB | 0.0 | — | 26% | 7% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Van JeffersonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.9 | 55% | 54% | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:38) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 80-I.Likely to BAL 13 for 4 yards (6-P.Queen; 95-K.Benton). FUMBLES (6-P.Queen), touched at BAL 17, RECOVERED by PIT-6-P.Queen at BAL 19. 6-P.Queen to BAL 19 for no gain (65-P.Mekari). Penalty on PIT-39-M.Fitzpatrick, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. Penalty on BAL-65-P.Mekari, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting.
Q2 0:38 · Ravens · 1st & 10 at BAL 9 · gained 4 · -3.97 EP · −18.4% win probability
174 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 187 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 182. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 75 yards from the BAL 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Ravens0
Steelers3How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Ravens0Steelers6Ravens6Steelers6Ravens7Steelers6How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Ravens7Steelers9Ravens7Steelers12Ravens10Steelers12Ravens10Steelers15Ravens10Steelers18Ravens16Steelers18How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket, thrown away.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Ravens at Steelers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 16/33 | 207 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −2.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 13 | 65 | 5.0 | 1 | −2.8 |
| Lamar Jackson | 4 | 46 | 11.5 | 0 | +3.2 |
| Justice Hill |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely | 4 | 5 | 75 | 0 | 16% | +0.9 |
| Zay Flowers | 2 | 6 | 39 | 1 | 19% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ar'Darius Washington | 5 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roquan Smith | 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Hamilton |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 23/36 | 205 | 0 | 1 | 4 | −11.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_11_BAL_PIT
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48; the game landed 34 — under by 14.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2 |
| 13 |
| 6.5 |
| 0 |
| +0.3 |
| +0.9 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 16% | +0.7 |
| Justice Hill | 4 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 23% | −5.2 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 10% | +1.7 |
| Tylan Wallace | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| Diontae Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −2.0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| 9 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Trenton Simpson | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Harrison | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Odafe Oweh | 3 | 2 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Stephens | 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 |
| Broderick Washington | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavius Robinson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 18 | 63 | 3.5 | 0 | −4.5 |
| Jaylen Warren | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Justin Fields | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | −2.6 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 8 | 12 | 89 | 0 | 38% | +4.9 |
| Darnell Washington | 2 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 13% | −1.6 |
| Najee Harris | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 16% | +0.7 |
| Jaylen Warren | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 13% | −1.0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6% | +0.3 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.0 |
| Van Jefferson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.2 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Calvin Austin | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 6% | −2.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Queen | 3 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Heyward | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Beanie Bishop | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Watt | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keeanu Benton | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Payton Wilson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Nick Herbig | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Pierre | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Robinson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
