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Cincinnati Bengals 27 at Los Angeles Chargers 34. Final.
Chargers -1 ✓O 48 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 11
Los Angeles Chargers 34, Bengals 27 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:52, 4th and 8, on Evan McPherson — 24.2 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Dome
Chargers closed -1 and covered, winning by 7.
Los Angeles Chargers 34–27. Biggest swing: Q4 1:52, Chargers +24.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:52 · 4th and 8
Evan McPherson
Chargers
(1:52) 2-E.McPherson 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
24.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Evan McPhersonChargersQ4 7:35(7:35) 2-E.McPherson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
17.3pts
Ladd McConkeyChargersQ4 0:31(:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 15-L.McConkey ran ob at CIN 29 for 27 yards (22-G.Stone) [91-T.Hendrickson].
19.1pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Chargers won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Bengals at 10 chunk plays.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Chargers at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Chargers won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.05 expected points per carry.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Bengals189 of 201 plays carry both curves
(1:52) 2-E.McPherson 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
Swing +24.2 for ChargersExpected points +3.42 for ChargersThe model had Chargers 2 points higher than the market did.play 178
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:52CIN +24% win prob(1:52) 2-E.McPherson 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
4th · 0:31LAC +19% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 15-L.McConkey ran ob at CIN 29 for 27 yards (22-G.Stone) [91-T.Hendrickson].
4th · 7:35CIN +17% win prob(7:35) 2-E.McPherson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
4th · 0:26LAC +15% win prob(:26) 27-J.Dobbins left tackle for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:40LAC +14% win prob(2:40) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 80-A.Iosivas to LAC 35 for 13 yards (32-A.Gilman) [97-J.Bosa].
3rd · 2:59LAC +12% win prob(2:59) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 5-T.Higgins for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 12:28
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.K. Dobbins's 29-yard rushing touchdown with 0:26 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st6:31Evan McPherson·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder R.Rehkow · snap C.Adomitis+33–0
2nd0:04Cameron Dicker·19-yd field goal19-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+36–24
3rd10:34Cameron Dicker·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+36–27
3rd5:31Ja'Marr Chase·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+713–27
3rd2:59Tee Higgins·42-yd TD catch42-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+720–27
4th12:28Ja'Marr Chase·17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+727–27
4th0:26J.K. Dobbins·29-yd TD run29-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+727–34
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryChargers
Bengals3–5Chargers
452Total yards435
5.8Yards per play7.0
37%Success rate42%
29%Third-down rate27%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
10Explosive plays12
20First downs21
3Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Chargers ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bengals, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Bengals: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.05Chargers: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.17Bengals: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.05Chargers: +0.05 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Bengals: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.04Chargers: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 78 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Chargers’s 62 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 5, Chargers 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CIN's play-action rate, 10.9%, is past their previous low of 14.3% in week 1 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 11.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 10.
55 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 25 pts
right on their number · −3.1 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Chargers23.6%
leaned — got home · +9.5 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+1.36× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
NoteLAC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.6%, 9.5 points above their season mean of 14.1% and 1.4 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Evan McPherson−21% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:52) 2-E.McPherson 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
Q4 1:52 · Bengals · 4th & 8 at LAC 33 · gained nothing · -3.42 EP · −20.5% win probability
187 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 201 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 187 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 196. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 84 yards from the LAC 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
201 of 201 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
201
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
43%
Yards
887
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52+0.0960%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.1264%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.0981%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.0055%
Bengals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR8+0.6488%
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR5+0.2060%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Bengals0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers3 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Chargers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
201 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
201 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 35 to the Chargers 48
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 10 to the Chargers 18
Bengals3Chargers0
Field goal10 plays, from the Bengals 36 to the Chargers 3
Bengals3Chargers6
Bengals3Chargers7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Bengals 29
The period ended10 plays, from the Bengals 34 to the Chargers 35
2nd quarter48 plays
Bengals6Chargers7
Field goal6 plays, from the Chargers 27 to the Chargers 9
Bengals6Chargers13
Bengals6Chargers14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chargers 29 to the Bengals 26
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 36
Bengals6Chargers20
Bengals6Chargers21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chargers 34 to the Bengals 1
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 37
Bengals6Chargers24
Field goal13 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Bengals 1
3rd quarter49 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Chargers 33
Punt5 plays
Bengals6Chargers27
Field goal7 plays, from the Chargers 41 to the Bengals 35
Bengals12Chargers27
Bengals13Chargers27
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Chargers 2
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Bengals19Chargers27
Bengals20Chargers27
Touchdown6 plays, from midfield to the Chargers 42
The period ended7 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Bengals 46
4th quarter65 plays
Fumble lost1 play
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.3 seconds
Bengals26Chargers27
Bengals27Chargers27
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Chargers 17
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Chargers 47
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
No good11 plays, from the Bengals 14 to the Chargers 30
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 38 to the Chargers 45
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
No good10 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Chargers 33
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 16 to the Bengals 30
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Bengals27Chargers33
Bengals27Chargers34
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chargers 16 to the Bengals 29
The period ended7 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Chargers 43
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Bengalscategory by categoryChargers
Bengals3
Chargers0
