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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 11
It turned at Q4 13:29, 4th and 1, on Taysom Hill — 25.0 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New Orleans Saints 35–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q4 13:29, Saints +25.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 13:29 · 4th and 1
Taysom Hill
Saints
(13:29) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill right end for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
25.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Saints won this one — +0.47 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.36 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Saints won this one — 6 of 10 on third down, against Browns at 3 of 13 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.31 expected points per snap, against Browns at +0.03 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(13:29) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill right end for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Taysom Hill's 33-yard rushing touchdown with 13:29 left in the 4th put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Brownscategory by categorySaints
Saints ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 71 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Saints’s 56 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Browns 3, Saints 6.
Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs 0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CLE's blitz rate sent, 6.7%, is past their previous low of 17.1% in week 1 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.6 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
NO's sack or hit rate turned over: 22.0% in week 10 against 7.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points. · −0.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Browns-1.3 ptsright on their number · −1.6 vs their 0.3 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 69 snaps
Saints1.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · +6.4 vs their -5.1 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.94× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 91%
Tendencies room →Browns67.9%right on their number · +4.3 vs their 63.7%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 53 early downs
Saints46.7%inside their normal wobble · −9.3 vs their 56.0%, and they swing ±13.9 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15% to 61%
Tendencies room →Browns13.5%leaned — dropped back clean · −9.0 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Saints43.3%leaned — faked the run · +20.3 vs their 23.0%, and they swing ±14.7 week to week (+1.38× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -38% to 124%
Fourth Down room →Browns66.7%right on their number · +7.5 vs their 59.1%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Saints—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 35.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 71%
Tendencies room →Browns6.7%leaned — sat back · −24.3 vs their 31.0%, and they swing ±15.6 week to week (−1.56× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Saints13.5%leaned — sat back · −10.7 vs their 24.1%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.25× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 40%
Tendencies room →Browns10.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.6 vs their 18.6%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.03× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Saints7.7%inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
CLE's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 6.7%, 24.3 points below their season mean of 31.0% and 1.6 times their own 15.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · CLE
30/46, 395 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
9.1 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected
Passing · NO
21/27, 248 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
12.3 expected points added · +7.9% completion over expected
Receiving · NO
2/4 for 87 yds, 1 TD
14% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Taysom Hill banked 17.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom HillQB · Starter QB | 41.5 | +17.3 | 55% | — | 36% | 15% | 1/2, 18 yd, 1 INT · 7 car, 138 yd, 3 TD · 8/10, 50 yd |
| Jameis WinstonQB · Starter QB | 26.6 | +5.5 | 95% | — | 0% | — | 30/46, 395 yd, 2 TD · 1 car, 8 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Featured Receiver | 26.2 | +8.8 | 85% | 94% | 24% | 32% | 6/11, 142 yd, 1 TD |
| David NjokuTE · Featured Receiver | 19.1 | +5.6 | 86% | 91% | 20% | 5% | 9/9, 81 yd |
| Derek CarrQB · Starter QB | 18.7 | +3.9 | 93% | — | 0% | — | 21/27, 248 yd, 2 TD · 1 car, 8 yd |
| Elijah MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 18.6 | +4.3 | 73% | 79% | 18% | 33% | 6/8, 66 yd, 1 TD |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.7 | +6.9 | 65% | 87% | 14% | 42% | 2/4, 87 yd, 1 TD |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Committee Back | 12.9 | −4.4 | 73% | 73% | 14% | 0% | 16 car, 67 yd · 4/4, 22 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 12.0 | +4.3 | 57% | 50% | 11% | 8% | 3/3, 30 yd, 1 TD |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.0 | −1.9 | 85% | 83% | 14% | 33% | 3/4, 50 yd |
| Jerome FordRB | 7.9 | −0.2 | 56% | 66% | 9% | 0% | 5 car, 10 yd · 4/4, 29 yd |
| Cedric TillmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | −6.5 | 96% | 94% | 18% | 26% | 3/8, 47 yd |
| Nick ChubbRB | 5.0 | 0.0 | 30% | 19% | 0% | — | 11 car, 50 yd |
| Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −5.0 | 22% | 21% | 9% | 5% | 1/4, 19 yd |
| Kevin AustinWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −0.8 | 68% | 63% | 7% | 7% | 1/2, 18 yd |
| Jamari ThrashWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.7 | 19% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Dante PettisWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.9 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Pierre StrongRB | 0.5 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jordan MimsRB | 0.3 | −0.8 | 18% | 17% | 0% | — | 2 car, 3 yd |
| Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB | 0.0 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jake HaenerQB | -0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kadarius ToneyWR · Rotational Receiver | -0.7 | −1.4 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:29) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill right end for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 13:29 · Saints · 4th & 1 at CLE 33 · gained 33 · +4.74 EP · +25.7% win probability
162 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 175 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 92 yards from the CLE 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Browns0
Saints6Browns0Saints7How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Browns6Saints7How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Browns6Saints13Browns6Saints14How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
Browns12Saints14Browns14Saints14How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Browns14Saints20Browns14Saints21Browns14Saints27Browns14Saints28Browns14Saints34Browns14Saints35Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Browns at Saints, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 30/46 | 395 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +9.1 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Jerome Ford | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 11 | 142 | 1 | 24% | +7.9 |
| David Njoku | 9 | 9 | 81 | 0 | 20% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Delpit | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Devin Bush | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohamoud Diabate |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 21/27 | 248 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +12.3 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/2 | 18 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_11_CLE_NO
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Browns closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44; the game landed 49 — over by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
| Jameis Winston | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Pierre Strong | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 | −1.4 |
| +5.6 |
| Elijah Moore | 6 | 8 | 66 | 1 | 18% | +2.6 |
| Cedric Tillman | 3 | 8 | 47 | 0 | 18% | −3.2 |
| Jerome Ford | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 9% | +1.2 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 9% | +0.8 |
| Jamari Thrash | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2% | +0.7 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jordan Hicks | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Thornhill | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Martin Emerson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ogbonnia Okoronkwo | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Ward | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Ronnie Hickman | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D'Anthony Bell | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| −1.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 7 | 138 | 19.7 | 3 | +12.8 |
| Alvin Kamara | 16 | 67 | 4.2 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Derek Carr | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Jordan Mims | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Jake Haener | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 4 | 87 | 1 | 14% | +2.5 |
| Taysom Hill | 8 | 10 | 50 | 0 | 36% | −3.5 |
| Foster Moreau | 3 | 4 | 50 | 0 | 14% | +3.3 |
| Juwan Johnson | 3 | 3 | 30 | 1 | 11% | +3.4 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 14% | −0.7 |
| Kevin Austin | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 7% | +0.7 |
| Dante Pettis | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +1.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demario Davis | 3 | 10 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Alontae Taylor | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Ugochukwu Amadi | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pete Werner | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Granderson | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Harris | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Howden | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Bresee | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kool-Aid McKinstry | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
