For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Browns164 of 175 plays carry both curves
(13:29) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill right end for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +25.0 for SaintsExpected points +4.74 for SaintsThe model had Saints 6 points higher than the market did.play 132
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 13:29NO +25% win prob(13:29) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill right end for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:07NO +19% win prob(2:07) 5-J.Winston pass deep left to 3-J.Jeudy for 89 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 12:53NO +19% win prob(12:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 10-M.Valdes-Scantling for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:03CLE +15% win prob(:03) 7-D.Hopkins 27 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
3rd · 8:58NO +11% win prob(8:58) 5-J.Winston pass deep right to 8-E.Moore for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:14NO +11% win prob(:14) 7-D.Hopkins 32 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. PENALTY on NO-98-P.Turner, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NO 14 - No Play.
2nd · 1:44
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Taysom Hill's 33-yard rushing touchdown with 13:29 left in the 4th put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Saints ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Browns: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.31Saints: +0.31 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.17Browns: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.17Saints: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.36Browns: −0.36 expected points added per play
+0.47Saints: +0.47 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 71 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Saints’s 56 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Browns 3, Saints 6.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs 0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's sack or hit rate turned over: 22.0% in week 10 against 7.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 13 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.6 vs their 18.6%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.03× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Saints7.7%
inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
NoteCLE's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 6.7%, 24.3 points below their season mean of 31.0% and 1.6 times their own 15.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Taysom Hill+26% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(13:29) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill right end for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 13:29 · Saints · 4th & 1 at CLE 33 · gained 33 · +4.74 EP · +25.7% win probability
162 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 92 yards from the CLE 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
43%
Yards
918
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54-0.0376%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.3071%
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11+0.0645%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+1.6357%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.4629%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.3540%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR4——
Saints0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR4——
Browns0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Browns0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Saints 49
Browns0Saints6
Browns0Saints7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 49 to the Browns 10
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 48
Punt14 plays, from the Saints 12 to the Browns 33
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.5 seconds
Browns6Saints7
Touchdown3 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Browns 18 to the Browns 35
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Browns 36 to the Browns 37
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Browns6Saints13
Browns6Saints14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 29
No good13 plays, from the Browns 26 to the Saints 26
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Saints 41 to the Browns 11
No good20 plays, from the Browns 7 to the Saints 9
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Browns 42
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.8 seconds
Browns12Saints14
Browns14Saints14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 8 to the Saints 30
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Browns 49
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 10 to the Browns 26
The period ended6 plays, from the Saints 23 to the Saints 36
4th quarter47 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, three linebackers and three backsIn the boxEight defenders
Browns14Saints20
Browns14Saints21
Touchdown5 plays, from the Browns 42 to the Browns 33
Punt10 plays, from the Browns 16 to the Saints 45
Browns14Saints27
Browns14Saints28
Touchdown8 plays, from the Browns 35 to the Browns 1
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Saints 22
Browns14Saints34
Browns14Saints35
Touchdown4 plays, from the Saints 22 to the Saints 25
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 35
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
