2024 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Cleveland Browns

New Orleans SaintsWinner

CLE -1 upsetO 44 ✓DomeBrowns closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New Orleans Saints 35–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q4 13:29, NO +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 13:29CLE 14 — NO 20NO ball · 4th & 1NO 51%

(13:29) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill right end for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 13:29NO +25% win prob(13:29) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill right end for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 2:07NO +19% win prob(2:07) 5-J.Winston pass deep left to 3-J.Jeudy for 89 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 12:53NO +19% win prob(12:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 10-M.Valdes-Scantling for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:03CLE +15% win prob(:03) 7-D.Hopkins 27 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:00NO Touchdown
(10:00) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 0 — NO 7
Q1 · 2:07CLE Touchdown
(2:07) 5-J.Winston pass deep left to 3-J.Jeudy for 89 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CLE 6 — NO 7
Q2 · 12:53NO Touchdown
(12:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 10-M.Valdes-Scantling for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 6 — NO 14
Q3 · 8:58CLE Touchdown
(8:58) 5-J.Winston pass deep right to 8-E.Moore for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: CLE 14 — NO 14
Q4 · 13:29NO Touchdown
(13:29) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill right end for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 14 — NO 21
Q4 · 6:08NO Touchdown
(6:08) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-J.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 14 — NO 28
Q4 · 2:38NO Touchdown
(2:38) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill left end for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 14 — NO 35

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Saints
Offensive plays	71	56
Total yards	445	475 (edge)
Yards per play	6.3	8.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.03	0.31 (edge)
Success rate	38%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	73%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.17 (edge)	0.17
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.36	0.47 (edge)
Third downs	3/13	6/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	20
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs 0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Jameis WinstonQB

30/46, 395 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.1 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Derek CarrQB

21/27, 248 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

12.3 expected points added · +7.9% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Taysom HillTE

7 att, 138 yds, 3 TD

12.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

16 att, 67 yds, 0 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Jerry JeudyWR

6/11 for 142 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR

2/4 for 87 yds, 1 TD

14% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 30	7	19	2:32	Turnover on downs
2	NO	CLE 49	7	49	2:34	Touchdown +7
3	CLE	CLE 30	5	3	0:58	Punt
4	NO	NO 12	11	64	6:49	Punt
5	CLE	CLE 11	2	89	0:15	Touchdown +6
6	NO	NO 41	2	0	0:14	Interception
7	CLE	CLE 18	5	19	2:24	Punt
8	NO	NO 20	4	80	1:34	Touchdown +7
9	CLE	CLE 26	12	45	5:55	Missed field goal
10	NO	NO 41	9	52	4:50	Fumble
11	CLE	CLE 7	14	79	1:55	Missed field goal
12	NO	NO 30	7	28	1:59	Punt
13	CLE	CLE 8	9	94	4:12	Touchdown +8
14	NO	NO 30	7	17	3:22	Punt
15	CLE	CLE 10	6	16	2:09	Punt
16	NO	NO 23	10	77	4:56	Touchdown +7
17	CLE	CLE 16	9	28	4:22	Defensive touchdown
18	NO	CLE 35	7	30	2:56	Touchdown +7
19	CLE	CLE 30	11	48	3:21	Defensive touchdown
20	NO	NO 22	3	78	0:17	Touchdown +7
21	CLE	CLE 30	5	5	1:19	Punt
22	NO	NO 21	2	0	1:07	End of game

7 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 94 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jameis Winston	30/46	395	2	0	3	9.1
Dorian Thompson-Robinson	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Nick Chubb	11	50	4.5	-2.5
Jerome Ford	5	10	2.0	-1.6
Jameis Winston	1	8	8.0	0.1
Pierre Strong	2	5	2.5	-1.4
Kadarius Toney	1	-7	-7.0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jerry Jeudy	6	11	142	1	24%	7.9
David Njoku	9	9	81	0	20%	5.6
Elijah Moore	6	8	66	1	18%	2.6
Cedric Tillman	3	8	47	0	18%	-3.2
Jerome Ford	4	4	29	0	9%	1.2
Jordan Akins	1	4	19	0	9%	0.8
Jamari Thrash	1	1	11	0	2%	0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Grant Delpit	3	6	0.0	0	1
Devin Bush	5	2	0.0	0	0
Mohamoud Diabate	3	3	0.0	0	0
Jordan Hicks	2	4	0.0	0	0
Juan Thornhill	1	4	0.0	0	0
Martin Emerson	4	1	0.0	0	0
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo	2	2	1.0	0	0
Denzel Ward	3	1	0.0	1	2
Ronnie Hickman	1	2	0.0	0	0
D'Anthony Bell	1	1	0.0	0	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	21/27	248	2	0	1	12.3
Taysom Hill	1/2	18	0	1	0	-1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Taysom Hill	7	138	19.7	3	12.8
Alvin Kamara	16	67	4.2	0	-0.4
Derek Carr	1	8	8.0	0	0.8
Jordan Mims	2	3	1.5	0	-0.9
Jake Haener	2	-2	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	2	4	87	1	14%	2.5
Taysom Hill	8	10	50	0	36%	-3.5
Foster Moreau	3	4	50	0	14%	3.3
Juwan Johnson	3	3	30	1	11%	3.4
Alvin Kamara	4	4	22	0	14%	-0.7
Kevin Austin	1	2	18	0	7%	0.7
Dante Pettis	1	1	9	0	4%	1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Demario Davis	3	10	0.0	2
Alontae Taylor	5	3	0.0	2
Ugochukwu Amadi	3	5	0.0	0
Pete Werner	3	3	0.0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	3	2	0.0	0
Carl Granderson	3	1	1.0	0
Will Harris	1	3	0.0	0
Jordan Howden	3	0	0.0	0
Bryan Bresee	1	2	1.5	0
Kool-Aid McKinstry	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -1
Closing total: 44
CLE moneyline: -115
NO moneyline: -105

Browns closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 49 — over by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: CLE 14 days · NO 7 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs Dennis Allen