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2024 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2024 · Soldier Field

Green Bay PackersWinner

20

Chicago Bears

19

GB -6 no coverU 41 ✓

Green Bay Packers 20–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, GB +60% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CHI ↑GB ↓
Q4 · 0:03GB 20 — CHI 19CHI ball · 2nd & 8CHI 60%

(:03) 8-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-K.Brooks), Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:03GB +60% win prob(:03) 8-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-K.Brooks), Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
  2. Q4 · 3:40CHI +29% win prob(3:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 9-C.Watson to CHI 14 for 60 yards (6-K.Gordon) [99-G.Dexter]. CHI-22-E.Hicks was injured during the play. Chicago challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
  3. Q3 · 0:39CHI +24% win prob(:39) 4-D.Swift left end for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 0:53CHI +20% win prob(:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 13-K.Allen to GB 30 for 12 yards (20-J.Bullard). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:18GB Touchdown

    (11:18) (No Huddle) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 11-J.Reed for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined. Penalty on CHI-96-Z.Pickens, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 7 — CHI 0
  2. Q1 · 7:54CHI Field goal

    (7:54) 8-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: GB 7 — CHI 3
  3. Q2 · 0:10CHI Touchdown

    (:10) 68-D.Kramer reported in as eligible. 23-R.Johnson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 7 — CHI 10
  4. Q3 · 10:21CHI Field goal

    (10:21) 8-C.Santos 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: GB 7 — CHI 13
  5. Q3 · 6:38GB Touchdown

    (6:38) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 14 — CHI 13
  6. Q3 · 0:39CHI Touchdown

    (:39) 4-D.Swift left end for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: GB 14 — CHI 19
  7. Q4 · 3:02GB Touchdown

    (3:02) 10-J.Love up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: GB 20 — CHI 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackersBears
Offensive plays4369
Total yards367391 (edge)
Yards per play8.5 (edge)5.7
Expected points added / play0.27 (edge)0.20
Success rate51% (edge)51%
Dropback rate47%58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.59 (edge)0.20
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.010.20 (edge)
Third downs1/59/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)9 (edge)7
First downs gained on snaps1923 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)3
Turnovers10 (edge)

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs 0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

13/17, 261 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

13.1 expected points added · +12.6% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

23/31, 231 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

3.2 expected points added · +6.7% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Josh JacobsRB

18 att, 76 yds, 1 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

D'Andre SwiftRB

14 att, 71 yds, 1 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Christian WatsonWR

4/4 for 150 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 12.0 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Rome OdunzeWR

6/10 for 65 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 0.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1GBGB 3010703:45Touchdown +7
2CHICHI 319343:26Field goal +3
3GBGB 307182:55Punt
4CHICHI 511466:26Punt
5GBGB 2412617:39Interception
6CHICHI 2414765:42Touchdown +7
7GBGB 26200:07End of half
8CHICHI 3011614:43Field goal +3
9GBGB 308653:43Touchdown +7
10CHICHI 2213836:03Touchdown +6
11GBGB 248754:12Turnover on downs
12CHICHI 213497:02Punt
13GBGB 225781:18Touchdown +6
14CHICHI 308422:59Missed field goal

7 of 14 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 83 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jordan Love13/1726111113.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Jacobs18764.21-0.6
Jordan Love4184.51-0.6
Emanuel Wilson2178.500.9
Jayden Reed1-5-5.00-1.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Christian Watson44150024%12.0
Josh Jacobs4558029%2.9
Jayden Reed2223112%3.0
Romeo Doubs1217012%0.0
Christopher Brooks2213012%0.9
Dontayvion Wicks01006%-0.5
Tucker Kraft01006%-4.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Xavier McKinney630.000
Carrington Valentine450.000
Quay Walker530.001
Javon Bullard620.000
Edgerrin Cooper530.000
Rashan Gary331.000
Evan Williams410.000
Keisean Nixon310.000
Kingsley Enagbare120.000
Brenton Cox211.000

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Caleb Williams23/312310033.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
D'Andre Swift14715.11-1.3
Caleb Williams9707.809.6
Roschon Johnson10333.312.2
D.J. Moore155.000.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Rome Odunze61065032%0.6
D.J. Moore7762023%2.8
Cole Kmet3342010%2.3
Keenan Allen4841026%-1.9
D'Andre Swift221306%0.3
Roschon Johnson11803%2.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kevin Byard350.000
Tremaine Edmunds160.000
Jaylon Johnson420.001
T.J. Edwards310.000
Elijah Hicks220.000
Kyler Gordon310.000
DeMarcus Walker111.000
Amen Ogbongbemiga100.000
Noah Sewell100.000
Terell Smith000.011

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
GB -6
Closing total
41
GB moneyline
-265
CHI moneyline
+215

Packers closed -6, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 41; the game landed 39 — under by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
54°F, wind 5 mph
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
GB 14 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Matt Eberflus

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.