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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:44 AM ET · 16 to play
Houston Texans 34, Cowboys 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 12:50, 1st and 10, on Joe Mixon — 8.8 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:50 · 1st and 10
Joe Mixon
Texans
(12:50) 28-J.Mixon right tackle for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Texans closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Houston Texans 34–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:50, Texans +8.8% win probability on one snap.
8.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Brandon AubreyTexansQ2 1:00(1:00) 17-B.Aubrey 40 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
7.2pts
Cooper RushTexansQ4 12:44(12:44) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush sacked at DAL 32 for -8 yards (95-D.Barnett). FUMBLES (95-D.Barnett), recovered by DAL-60-T.Guyton at DAL 33. 60-T.Guyton to DAL 32 for -1 yards (5-J.Pitre; 92-D.Horton). FUMBLES (5-J.Pitre), RECOVERED by HOU-95-D.Barnett at DAL 28. 95-D.Barnett for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.2pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Texans won this one — +0.21 expected points per carry, against Cowboys at -0.41 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Texans won this one — +0.19 expected points per snap, against Cowboys at -0.31 expected points per snap.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +0.19 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at -0.28 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Texans won this one — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Cowboys at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Texans180 of 188 plays carry both curves
(12:50) 28-J.Mixon right tackle for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −8.8 for CowboysExpected points −4.05 for CowboysThe model had Cowboys 30 points higher than the market did.play 9
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:50DAL +9% win prob(12:50) 28-J.Mixon right tackle for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 12:44HOU +8% win prob(12:44) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush sacked at DAL 32 for -8 yards (95-D.Barnett). FUMBLES (95-D.Barnett), recovered by DAL-60-T.Guyton at DAL 33. 60-T.Guyton to DAL 32 for -1 yards (5-J.Pitre; 92-D.Horton). FUMBLES (5-J.Pitre), RECOVERED by HOU-95-D.Barnett at DAL 28. 95-D.Barnett for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:00HOU +7% win prob(1:00) 17-B.Aubrey 40 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
1st · 5:58HOU +7% win prob(5:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Stingley at HOU 30. 24-D.Stingley pushed ob at HOU 37 for 7 yards (87-J.Ferguson).
2nd · 15:00DAL +6% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 9-K.Turpin for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-23-E.Murray, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
1st · 8:32HOU +5% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Joe Mixon's 45-yard rushing touchdown with 12:50 left in the 1st put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:50Joe Mixon·45-yd TD run45-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
Texans ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.19Texans: +0.19 expected points added per play
−0.31Cowboys: −0.31 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.19Texans: +0.19 expected points added per play
−0.28Cowboys: −0.28 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.21Texans: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.41Cowboys: −0.41 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 60 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 79 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Texans 5, Cowboys 2.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.31.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DAL's sack or hit rate, 2.6%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 2.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 5.9% in week 3.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 10.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
high through week 11Against their seasonOver Expected
DAL's pass rate over expected, +4.8 pts, is past their previous high of +3.0 pts in week 3 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 10.
79 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points.
high through week 11Against their seasonOver Expected
HOU's pass rate over expected, +8.8 pts, is past their previous high of +6.8 pts in week 3 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 11.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 10.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
high through week 11Against their seasonTendencies
HOU's play-action rate, 31.6%, is past their previous high of 28.9% in week 10 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 11.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
DAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 47.5% in week 10 against 71.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.6 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 62 dropbacks
Cowboys2.6%
leaned — stayed blocked · −13.6 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−1.52× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteDAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.6%, 13.6 points below their season mean of 16.2% and 1.5 times their own 8.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
69Shaq MasonG · Every snap100%64 snaps
78Laremy TunsilT · Every snap100%64 snaps
71Tytus HowardT · Every snap100%64 snaps
70Juice ScruggsC · Every snap100%64 snaps
54Jarrett PattersonC · Every snap100%64 snaps
7C.J. StroudQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
28Joe MixonRB · Full-time81%52 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Heavy rotation75%48 snaps
3Tank DellWR · Heavy rotation64%41 snaps
8John Metchie IIIWR · Heavy rotation61%39 snaps
12Nico CollinsWR · Rotational47%30 snaps
87Cade StoverTE · Rotational45%29 snaps
19Xavier HutchinsonWR · Rotational44%28 snaps
2Robert WoodsWR · Rotational31%20 snaps
85Teagan QuitorianoTE · Rotational30%19 snaps
33Dare OgunbowaleRB · Situational13%8 snaps
31Dameon PierceRB · Situational6%4 snaps
—Zachary ThomasT · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Kamari LassiterCBWill Anderson Jr.DEFoley FatukasiDTJamal HillILBBlake FisherTSteven SimsWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Rush pass+16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 9-K.Turpin for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-23-E.Murray, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
Q2 15:00 · Cowboys · 3rd & 10 at DAL 36 · gained 64 · +6.23 EP · +15.8% win probability
178 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 183. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 82 yards from the HOU 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
41%
Yards
779
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR67-0.2681%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.2172%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.0147%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.3363%
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Cowboys0 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Texans6Cowboys0
Texans7Cowboys0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Texans 23 to the Cowboys 45
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 18 to the Cowboys 33
Intercepted4 plays, from the Cowboys 37 to the Cowboys 30
Intercepted5 plays, from the Cowboys 33 to the Texans 41
Texans13Cowboys0
Texans14Cowboys0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Texans 37 to the Cowboys 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Cowboys 36 to the Cowboys 39
2nd quarter60 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Texans14Cowboys6
Texans14Cowboys7
Touchdown3 plays
Texans17Cowboys7
Field goal13 plays, from the Texans 8 to the Cowboys 9
Texans17Cowboys10
Field goal9 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Texans 35
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 49
The period ended16 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Texans 22
Punt4 plays
The period ended8 plays, from the Cowboys 18 to the Cowboys 30
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Cowboys 35
Texans20Cowboys10
Field goal11 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Cowboys 10
Turnover on downs16 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Texans 8
The period ended5 plays, from the Texans 8 to the Texans 25
4th quarter48 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Texans 32 to the Texans 34
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Texans26Cowboys10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Cowboys 7 to the Cowboys 40
Texans27Cowboys10
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Cowboys 49
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 19 to the Texans 43
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Cowboys 9 to the Cowboys 49
Texans33Cowboys10
Texans34Cowboys10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 35 to the Cowboys 1
The period ended11 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Texans 26
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Texans -7.5
Closing total
41.5
Texans moneyline
-360
Cowboys moneyline
+285
Texans closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 44 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Texans 8 days · Cowboys 8 days
Coaches
DeMeco Ryans vs Mike McCarthy
(8:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right intended for 12-N.Collins INTERCEPTED by 28-M.Hooker at DAL 12. 28-M.Hooker to DAL 33 for 21 yards (70-J.Scruggs).
3rd · 4:21DAL +5% win prob(4:21) 17-B.Aubrey 64 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. PENALTY on HOU-95-D.Barnett, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 46 - No Play.
1st · 14:44DAL +5% win prob(14:44) 28-J.Mixon right tackle to HOU 19 for 1 yard (50-E.Kendricks). PENALTY on DAL-58-M.Smith, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 19.
