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2024 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2024 · MetLife Stadium

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

28

New York Jets

27

NYJ -4 upsetO 43 ✓

Indianapolis Colts 28–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:13, IND +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NYJ ↑IND ↓
Q4 · 0:13IND 28 — NYJ 27NYJ ball · 3rd & 7IND 80%

(:13) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at NYJ 28 for -5 yards (51-K.Paye).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:13IND +20% win prob(:13) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at NYJ 28 for -5 yards (51-K.Paye).
  2. Q4 · 0:51NYJ +18% win prob(:51) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 2:14NYJ +17% win prob(2:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce to NYJ 27 for 39 yards (35-J.Mills).
  4. Q3 · 14:19IND +15% win prob(14:19) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson sacked at IND 36 for -8 yards (54-J.Kinlaw). FUMBLES (54-J.Kinlaw) [44-J.Sherwood], RECOVERED by NYJ-54-J.Kinlaw at IND 29. 54-J.Kinlaw to IND 25 for 4 yards (5-A.Richardson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:11IND Field goal

    (9:11) 7-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 3 — NYJ 0
  2. Q2 · 14:16IND Touchdown

    (14:16) 5-A.Richardson left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 10 — NYJ 0
  3. Q2 · 6:12IND Field goal

    (6:12) 7-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 13 — NYJ 0
  4. Q2 · 0:48NYJ Touchdown

    (:48) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 20-B.Hall for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 13 — NYJ 7
  5. Q3 · 13:30NYJ Touchdown

    (13:30) 20-B.Hall right end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 13 — NYJ 14
  6. Q3 · 7:45IND Field goal

    (7:45) 7-M.Gay 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 16 — NYJ 14
  7. Q3 · 3:00NYJ Field goal

    (3:00) 18-A.Carlson 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: IND 16 — NYJ 17
  8. Q4 · 13:08NYJ Touchdown

    (13:08) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 88-K.Yeboah for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 16 — NYJ 24
  9. Q4 · 10:16IND Touchdown

    (10:16) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short middle to 1-J.Downs for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: IND 22 — NYJ 24
  10. Q4 · 2:44NYJ Field goal

    (2:44) 18-A.Carlson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: IND 22 — NYJ 27
  11. Q4 · 0:51IND Touchdown

    (:51) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: IND 28 — NYJ 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricColtsJets
Offensive plays6952
Total yards332 (edge)253
Yards per play4.84.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.02 (edge)-0.10
Success rate39% (edge)35%
Dropback rate48%63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.26 (edge)-0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.21 (edge)-0.23
Third downs6/15 (edge)4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)55
First downs gained on snaps20 (edge)10
Sacks taken2 (edge)3
Turnovers11

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Anthony RichardsonQB

20/30, 272 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

8.7 expected points added · +7.3% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Aaron RodgersQB

22/29, 184 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-0.4 expected points added · +3.5% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Breece HallRB

16 att, 78 yds, 1 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

24 att, 57 yds, 0 TD

-9.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Josh DownsWR

5/5 for 84 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 12.4 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Alec PierceWR

3/4 for 74 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1NYJNYJ 30571:19Punt
2INDIND 209574:34Field goal +3
3NYJNYJ 30511:01Defensive touchdown
4INDIND 23492:18Punt
5NYJNYJ 22412:10Punt
6INDIND 349664:27Touchdown +7
7NYJNYJ 30592:05Turnover on downs
8INDNYJ 3910105:58Field goal +3
9NYJNYJ 22592:22Punt
10INDIND 30421:29Punt
11NYJNYJ 248761:37Touchdown +7
12INDIND 32570:40Turnover on downs
13INDIND 403-110:51Fumble
14NYJIND 253250:47Touchdown +7
15INDIND 2112465:41Field goal +3
16NYJNYJ 30551:35Punt
17INDIND 16431:34Punt
18NYJIND 384-21:37Field goal +3
19INDIND 18531:58Punt
20NYJNYJ 417632:54Touchdown +7
21INDIND 3010702:52Touchdown +6
22NYJNYJ 3014637:30Field goal +3
23INDIND 308701:55Touchdown +6
24NYJNYJ 304-40:46End of game

11 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 76 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Anthony Richardson20/302721028.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor24572.40-9.7
Anthony Richardson10323.222.7
Adonai Mitchell122.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Josh Downs5584118%12.4
Alec Pierce3474014%4.0
Michael Pittman5846029%0.5
Adonai Mitchell123307%3.0
Mo Alie-Cox2317011%0.2
Andrew Ogletree11804%0.9
Kylen Granson12407%-1.3
Jonathan Taylor12307%-1.2
Trey Sermon11304%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
E.J. Speed450.000
DeForest Buckner240.000
Kenny Moore420.000
Kwity Paye412.000
Grant Stuard220.000
Nick Cross310.000
Zaire Franklin220.000
Jaylon Jones120.002
Laiatu Latu211.000
Ashton Dulin120.000

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers22/29184203-0.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Breece Hall16784.91-0.2
Aaron Rodgers177.00-0.4
Braelon Allen263.00-1.0
Tyler Conklin100.00-3.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Davante Adams6772024%3.2
Breece Hall7743124%0.1
Garrett Wilson4818028%-4.8
Xavier Gipson111703%2.7
Kenny Yeboah111113%2.4
Malachi Corley111003%0.6
Tyler Conklin12707%-1.9
Jeremy Ruckert12607%0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Micheal Clemons350.000
Quinnen Williams431.000
Chuck Clark330.000
Jalen Mills420.000
Quincy Williams230.000
Javon Kinlaw231.000
Jamien Sherwood220.000
Chazz Surratt310.000
Ahmad Gardner400.000
D.J. Reed400.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NYJ -4
Closing total
43
IND moneyline
+170
NYJ moneyline
-205

Jets closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43; the game landed 55 — over by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
62°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
IND 7 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs Robert Saleh