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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:18 AM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2024 · Ford Field
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 11
It turned at Q1 9:36, 1st and 10, on Shane Zylstra — 6.7 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Detroit Lions 52–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:36, Lions +6.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:36 · 1st and 10
Shane Zylstra
Lions
(9:36) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 84-S.Zylstra pushed ob at JAX 48 for 22 yards (5-A.Cisco).
6.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Lions won this one — 68% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Lions won this one — +1.01 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.42 expected points per dropback.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Lions won this one — +0.57 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.37 expected points per snap.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Lions won this one — 14 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 3 chunk plays.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
(9:36) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 84-S.Zylstra pushed ob at JAX 48 for 22 yards (5-A.Cisco).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
David Montgomery's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 5:02 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jaguarscategory by categoryLions
Lions ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±1.01 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 47 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Lions’s 74 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 1, Lions 8.
Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.57 expected points added per play vs -0.37.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
DET's pass rate over expected, +5.4 pts, is past their previous high of −1.1 pts in week 8 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
74 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
DET's blitz rate sent, 51.6%, is past their previous high of 44.7% in week 10 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.1 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 11 pts
Over Expected room →Jaguars-3.9 ptsright on their number · −0.3 vs their -3.6 pts, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 47 snaps
Lions5.4 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +9.1 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+1.58× that swing) · 74 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 84%
Tendencies room →Jaguars60.0%right on their number · +3.2 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 35 early downs
Lions45.9%right on their number · −3.0 vs their 48.9%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 61 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 66%
Tendencies room →Jaguars29.0%inside their normal wobble · +6.4 vs their 22.6%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+0.62× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Lions43.2%inside their normal wobble · +6.8 vs their 36.5%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -42% to 164%
Fourth Down room →Jaguars33.3%right on their number · +1.9 vs their 31.4%, and they swing ±26.7 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Lions100.0%inside their normal wobble · +36.7 vs their 63.3%, and they swing ±39.3 week to week (+0.93× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 68%
Tendencies room →Jaguars13.5%right on their number · −1.5 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Lions51.6%leaned — sent pressure · +15.7 vs their 35.9%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (+1.30× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 32%
Tendencies room →Jaguars5.4%leaned — stayed blocked · −4.6 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (−1.16× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Lions6.5%leaned — stayed blocked · −9.1 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
DET's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 5.4 pts, 9.1 points above their season mean of -3.7 pts and 1.6 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · DET
24/29, 412 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
33.0 expected points added · +18.5% completion over expected
Passing · JAX
17/29, 138 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-11.9 expected points added · -3.8% completion over expected
Receiving · DET
11/11 for 161 yds, 2 TD
35% of team targets · 17.7 expected points added
Receiving · DET
4/6 for 124 yds, 1 TD
19% of team targets · 6.8 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Amon-Ra St. Brown banked 16.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 38.7 | +16.2 | 80% | 78% | 35% | 42% | 1 car, -4 yd · 11/11, 161 yd, 2 TD |
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 34.6 | +14.6 | 80% | — | 0% | — | 24/29, 412 yd, 4 TD · 4 car, 21 yd |
| David MontgomeryRB · Committee Back | 24.5 | +6.9 | 39% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 15 car, 75 yd, 2 TD · 3/3, 20 yd |
| Jameson WilliamsWR · Featured Receiver | 22.6 | +10.7 | 65% | 65% | 19% | 29% | 1 car, 2 yd · 4/6, 124 yd, 1 TD |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB | 19.3 | +6.3 | 42% | 43% | 3% | 0% | 11 car, 69 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 54 yd |
| Brian ThomasWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.6 | +2.5 | 94% | 94% | 25% | 27% | 1 car, 4 yd · 5/7, 82 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Alpha Receiver | 7.8 | −2.6 | 75% | 81% | 25% | 16% | 5/7, 28 yd |
| Brock WrightTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.5 | +3.7 | 82% | 68% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd, 1 TD |
| Travis EtienneRB · Bell Cow Back | 6.3 | −3.6 | 75% | 65% | 11% | 0% | 12 car, 27 yd · 3/3, 6 yd |
| Tim PatrickWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | −3.3 | 71% | 65% | 13% | 16% | 3/4, 26 yd |
| Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | +0.7 | 32% | 22% | 6% | 9% | 2/2, 30 yd |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 4.2 | −7.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/29, 138 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 7 yd |
| Shane ZylstraTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +1.4 | 24% | 27% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 22 yd |
| Craig ReynoldsRB | 2.1 | +1.2 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Parker WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −2.3 | 58% | 61% | 11% | 11% | 1/3, 10 yd |
| Hendon HookerQB | 1.8 | −0.8 | 20% | — | 0% | — | 3/4, 37 yd · 4 car, 3 yd |
| Allen RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.4 | 14% | 11% | 6% | 5% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Brenton StrangeTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.3 | 50% | 39% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Gabe DavisWR | 1.3 | −3.6 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −2.4 | 29% | 19% | 7% | 9% | 1/2, 3 yd |
| Sione VakiRB | 0.9 | −1.2 | 13% | 8% | 0% | — | 5 car, 9 yd |
| D'Ernest JohnsonRB | 0.3 | −0.6 | 27% | 32% | 0% | — | 2 car, 3 yd |
| Devin DuvernayWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.8 | 29% | 39% | 7% | 18% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Josiah DeguaraTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:56) 16-J.Goff up the middle to DET 49 for 3 yards (23-F.Oluokun).
Q2 14:56 · Lions · 4th & 1 at DET 46 · gained 3 · +2.32 EP · +6.7% win probability
156 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 96 yards from the DET 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Jaguars3
Lions0Jaguars3Lions6Jaguars3Lions7Jaguars3Lions13Jaguars3Lions14Jaguars3Lions20Jaguars3Lions21Jaguars3Lions27Jaguars3Lions28Jaguars6Lions28Jaguars6Lions34Jaguars6Lions35Jaguars6Lions41Jaguars6Lions42Jaguars6Lions48Jaguars6Lions49Jaguars6Lions52Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jaguars at Lions, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 17/29 | 138 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −11.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 0 | −5.0 |
| Mac Jones | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Brian Thomas | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thomas | 5 | 7 | 82 | 0 | 25% | +3.4 |
| Evan Engram | 5 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 25% | +0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyesade Oluokun | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyson Campbell | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ventrell Miller | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Montaric Brown |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 24/29 | 412 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +33.0 |
| Hendon Hooker | 3/4 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.6 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_11_JAX_DET
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Lions closed -14 and covered, winning by 46.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 58 — over by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Parker Washington | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 11% | −2.3 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 11% | −1.4 |
| Brenton Strange | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7% | −4.8 |
| Gabe Davis | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11% | −2.1 |
| Devin Duvernay | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −1.2 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Darnell Savage | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronald Darby | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Devin Lloyd | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antonio Johnson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Cisco | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travon Walker | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 15 | 75 | 5.0 | 2 | +2.5 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 11 | 69 | 6.3 | 1 | +1.8 |
| Jared Goff | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 | +3.5 |
| Craig Reynolds | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Sione Vaki | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Hendon Hooker | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 11 | 11 | 161 | 2 | 35% | +17.7 |
| Jameson Williams | 4 | 6 | 124 | 1 | 19% | +6.8 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 1 | 1 | 54 | 0 | 3% | +3.3 |
| Kalif Raymond | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 | 6% | +2.7 |
| Tim Patrick | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 13% | +2.8 |
| Shane Zylstra | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 3% | +1.2 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 10% | +1.2 |
| Allen Robinson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6% | +0.9 |
| Brock Wright | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3% | +1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell | 3 | 6 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Branch | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amik Robertson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Anzalone | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Rodriguez | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kerby Joseph | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kindle Vildor | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alim McNeill | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Niemann | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
