2024 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2024 · New Era Field
Kansas City Chiefs
21
Buffalo BillsWinner
30
Buffalo Bills 30–21. Biggest swing: Q4 2:27, BUF +14% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(2:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right tackle for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: BUF-73-D.Dawkins has returned to the game.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 2:27BUF +14% win prob(2:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right tackle for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: BUF-73-D.Dawkins has returned to the game.
- Q2 · 2:53BUF +10% win prob(2:53) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 83-N.Gray for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q2 · 7:38KC +10% win prob(7:38) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 88-D.Knox INTERCEPTED by 27-C.Conner at KC 31. 27-C.Conner to BUF 40 for 29 yards (74-R.Van Demark).
- Q2 · 15:00BUF +9% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in flat at BUF 10.
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 10:04BUF Touchdown
(10:04) 4-J.Cook right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: KC 0 — BUF 6 - Q2 · 15:00KC Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in flat at BUF 10. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 7 — BUF 6 - Q2 · 10:13BUF Touchdown
(10:13) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 7 — BUF 13 - Q2 · 2:53KC Touchdown
(2:53) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 83-N.Gray for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 14 — BUF 13 - Q2 · 0:05BUF Field goal
(:05) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: KC 14 — BUF 16 - Q4 · 12:57BUF Touchdown
(12:57) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 1-C.Samuel for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [27-C.Conner]. Caught in flat at KC 10. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 14 — BUF 23 - Q4 · 7:59KC Touchdown
(7:59) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 83-N.Gray for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [50-G.Rousseau]. Caught in rear corner of end zone. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 21 — BUF 23 - Q4 · 2:27BUF Touchdown
(2:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right tackle for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: BUF-73-D.Dawkins has returned to the game. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 21 — BUF 30
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Chiefs | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 52 | 69 |
| Total yards | 259 | 368 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.0 | 5.3 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.12 (edge) | 0.10 |
| Success rate | 52% (edge) | 43% |
| Dropback rate | 67% | 65% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.16 | 0.23 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.03 (edge) | -0.12 |
| Third downs | 5/10 | 9/15 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 2 | 6 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 18 | 22 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 2 | 0 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 (edge) |
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · BUF
27/40, 262 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
6.0 expected points added · +4.2% completion over expected
Passing · KC
23/33, 196 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
5.6 expected points added · +9.6% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | KC 30 | 3 | 7 | 0:45 | Interception | |
| 2 | BUF | BUF 35 | 9 | 65 | 4:15 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 3 | KC | KC 30 | 5 | -1 | 1:38 | Punt | |
| 4 | BUF | BUF 40 | 7 | 18 | 3:02 | Punt | |
| 5 | KC | KC 12 | 12 | 88 | 5:27 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 6 | BUF | BUF 30 | 11 | 65 | 4:45 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 7 | KC | KC 30 | 5 | -9 | 1:02 | Punt | |
| 8 | BUF | KC 41 | 4 | 7 | 1:41 | Interception | |
| 9 | KC | BUF 40 | 10 | 40 | 4:34 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 10 | BUF | BUF 23 | 13 | 62 | 2:51 | Field goal +3 | |
| 11 | BUF | BUF 30 | 5 | 3 | 0:54 | Punt | |
| 12 | KC | KC 20 | 4 | 9 | 2:23 | Punt | |
| 13 | BUF | BUF 33 | 7 | 17 | 3:49 | Punt | |
| 14 | KC | KC 14 | 7 | 41 | 4:00 | Punt | |
| 15 | BUF | BUF 17 | 11 | 61 | 6:03 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 16 | KC | KC 30 | 12 | 66 | 4:58 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 17 | BUF | BUF 30 | 14 | 70 | 5:36 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 18 | KC | KC 30 | 6 | 18 | 1:10 | Interception | |
| 19 | BUF | BUF 29 | 2 | 0 | 1:07 | End of game |
8 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 88 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
Kansas City Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 23/33 | 196 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5.6 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 14 | 60 | 4.3 | 0 | -1.1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 0.8 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Carson Steele | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0.3 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Worthy | 4 | 5 | 61 | 1 | 16% | 5.1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 13% | 2.0 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 6% | 1.1 |
| Noah Gray | 4 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 16% | 1.5 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 10% | -0.2 |
| Peyton Hendershot | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | 1.3 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | 1.2 |
| Travis Kelce | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 13% | -1.4 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 13% | -1.1 |
| Carson Steele | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | -0.1 |
| Mike Caliendo | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | 0.8 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazeeh Johnson | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chamarri Conner | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Drue Tranquill | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Reid | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bolton | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leo Chenal | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Jones | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Cook | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Danna | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tershawn Wharton | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Buffalo Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 27/40 | 262 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.0 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 12 | 55 | 4.6 | 1 | 5.1 |
| James Cook | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 2 | -0.9 |
| Ty Johnson | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 | -0.6 |
| Ray Davis | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 | -2.3 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 8 | 12 | 70 | 0 | 32% | 3.3 |
| Curtis Samuel | 5 | 6 | 58 | 1 | 16% | 5.3 |
| Amari Cooper | 2 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 8% | 4.9 |
| Dawson Knox | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 16% | -3.2 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 5% | 2.6 |
| James Cook | 5 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 16% | -3.6 |
| Zach Davidson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | -0.0 |
| Ty Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.4 |
| Quintin Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.7 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrel Bernard | 3 | 5 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Taylor Rapp | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Taron Johnson | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Epenesa | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Damar Hamlin | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorian Williams | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Lewis | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Benford | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Von Miller | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- BUF -2.5
- Closing total
- 46.5
- KC moneyline
- +120
- BUF moneyline
- -142
Bills closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 9.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 51 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- New Era Field
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · a turf
- Kickoff weather
- 50°F, wind 3 mph
- Referee
- Land Clark
- Rest
- KC 7 days · BUF 7 days
- Coaches
- Andy Reid vs Sean McDermott