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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:18 AM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2024 · New Era Field
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 11
It turned at Q4 2:27, 4th and 2, on Josh Allen — 14.1 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 30–21. Biggest swing: Q4 2:27, Bills +14.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:27 · 4th and 2
Josh Allen
Bills
(2:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right tackle for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: BUF-73-D.Dawkins has returned to the game.
14.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Chiefs at 2 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Bills at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bills at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Bills won this one — 1 giveaway, against Chiefs at 2 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
(2:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right tackle for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: BUF-73-D.Dawkins has returned to the game.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tyler Bass's 33-yard field goal with 0:05 left in the 2nd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Tyler Bass33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.FergusonLead never changed again+314–168 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chiefscategory by categoryBills
Bills ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 52 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Bills’s 69 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 3, Bills 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
KC's play-action rate, 28.6%, is past their previous high of 26.2% in week 3 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 23 pts
Over Expected room →Chiefs9.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.4 vs their 5.0 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 52 snaps
Bills2.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their -2.1 pts, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.57× that swing) · 69 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 82%
Tendencies room →Chiefs65.9%inside their normal wobble · +7.5 vs their 58.4%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.85× that swing) · 41 early downs
Bills63.5%leaned — passed early · +11.4 vs their 52.1%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 36%
Tendencies room →Chiefs28.6%leaned — faked the run · +7.3 vs their 21.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+1.33× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Bills22.2%inside their normal wobble · +4.4 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.63× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 105%
Fourth Down room →Chiefs—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 29.8%.
Bills—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 41.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 60%
Tendencies room →Chiefs44.4%inside their normal wobble · +8.6 vs their 35.8%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+0.96× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Bills37.1%leaned — sent pressure · +14.7 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (+1.22× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 43%
Tendencies room →Chiefs8.9%inside their normal wobble · −8.9 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Bills20.0%leaned — got home · +5.1 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (+1.24× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
KC's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 28.6%, 7.3 points above their season mean of 21.3% and 1.3 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
27/40, 262 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
6.0 expected points added · +4.2% completion over expected
Passing · KC
23/33, 196 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
5.6 expected points added · +9.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Curtis Samuel banked 8.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 24.0 | +3.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/40, 262 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 12 car, 55 yd, 1 TD |
| James CookRB · Committee Back | 19.7 | +3.3 | 37% | 33% | 16% | 0% | 9 car, 20 yd, 2 TD · 5/6, 7 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 18.3 | +7.4 | 76% | 77% | 16% | 9% | 4/5, 23 yd, 2 TD |
| Curtis SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.8 | +8.4 | 60% | 62% | 16% | 10% | 5/6, 58 yd, 1 TD |
| Xavier WorthyWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.8 | +7.6 | 58% | 74% | 16% | 33% | 1 car, 7 yd · 4/5, 61 yd, 1 TD |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 15.8 | −1.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/33, 196 yd, 3 TD, 2 INT |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.0 | −3.6 | 71% | 73% | 32% | 19% | 8/12, 70 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.0 | −1.6 | 84% | 76% | 16% | 25% | 4/6, 40 yd |
| Amari CooperWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.5 | +2.8 | 51% | 49% | 8% | 26% | 2/3, 55 yd |
| Kareem HuntRB · Bell Cow Back | 6.0 | −5.0 | 69% | 54% | 0% | — | 14 car, 60 yd |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.9 | −0.1 | 47% | 54% | 13% | 22% | 3/4, 29 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | +1.8 | 56% | 53% | 5% | 5% | 2/2, 27 yd |
| Justin WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | +1.5 | 56% | 54% | 6% | 11% | 2/2, 26 yd |
| Mecole HardmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | −0.5 | 24% | 20% | 10% | 0% | 1 car, 9 yd · 2/3, 12 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB · Receiving Back | 2.8 | −5.8 | 20% | 29% | 13% | 1% | 2/4, 8 yd |
| Travis KelceTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −2.6 | 80% | 80% | 13% | 19% | 2/4, 8 yd |
| Peyton HendershotTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −2.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 1.8 | −2.4 | 45% | 47% | 3% | 3% | 5 car, 18 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.2 | 36% | 34% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Carson SteeleRB | 1.7 | −0.2 | 15% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 1 car, 2 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Zach DavidsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.1 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Ray DavisRB | 1.1 | −1.9 | 21% | 11% | 0% | — | 5 car, 11 yd |
| Quintin MorrisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.1 | 38% | 24% | 3% | 11% | 0/1, 0 yd |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right tackle for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: BUF-73-D.Dawkins has returned to the game.
Q4 2:27 · Bills · 4th & 2 at KC 26 · gained 26 · +4.94 EP · +13.9% win probability
154 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 88 yards from the KC 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chiefs0
Bills6Chiefs6Bills6Chiefs7Bills6Chiefs7Bills12Chiefs7Bills13Chiefs13Bills13Chiefs14Bills13Chiefs14Bills16Chiefs14Bills22Chiefs14Bills23Chiefs20Bills23Chiefs21Bills23How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Chiefs21Bills29Chiefs21Bills30Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chiefs at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 23/33 | 196 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +5.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 14 | 60 | 4.3 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Worthy | 4 | 5 | 61 | 1 | 16% | +5.1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 13% | +2.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazeeh Johnson | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chamarri Conner | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Drue Tranquill | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Reid |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 27/40 | 262 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +6.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_11_KC_BUF
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 9.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 51 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
| Carson Steele | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 6% | +1.1 |
| Noah Gray | 4 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 16% | +1.5 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 10% | −0.2 |
| Peyton Hendershot | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +1.3 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +1.2 |
| Travis Kelce | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 13% | −1.4 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 13% | −1.1 |
| Carson Steele | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Mike Caliendo | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Nick Bolton | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leo Chenal | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Jones | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Cook | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Danna | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tershawn Wharton | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 |
| 55 |
| 4.6 |
| 1 |
| +5.1 |
| James Cook | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 2 | −0.9 |
| Ty Johnson | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Ray Davis | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 8 | 12 | 70 | 0 | 32% | +3.3 |
| Curtis Samuel | 5 | 6 | 58 | 1 | 16% | +5.3 |
| Amari Cooper | 2 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 8% | +4.9 |
| Dawson Knox | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 16% | −3.2 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 5% | +2.6 |
| James Cook | 5 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 16% | −3.6 |
| Zach Davidson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.0 |
| Ty Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Quintin Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrel Bernard | 3 | 5 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Taylor Rapp | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Taron Johnson | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Epenesa | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Damar Hamlin | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorian Williams | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Lewis | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Benford | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Von Miller | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
