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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:19 AM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
Los Angeles Rams 28 at New England Patriots 22. Final.
Rams -4 ✓O 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 11
Los Angeles Rams 28, Patriots 22 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 14:19, 2nd and 9, on Cooper Kupp — 14.8 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Rams closed -4 and covered, winning by 6.
Los Angeles Rams 28–22. Biggest swing: Q3 14:19, Rams +14.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 14:19 · 2nd and 9
Cooper Kupp
Rams
(14:19) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Drake MayeRamsQ2 5:56(5:56) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at NE 20 for -7 yards (55-B.Fiske). FUMBLES (55-B.Fiske) [55-B.Fiske], RECOVERED by LA-91-K.Turner at NE 12. 91-K.Turner to NE 12 for no gain (77-B.Brown). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
13.0pts
Joshua KartyPatriotsQ2 0:03(:03) 16-J.Karty 26 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
10.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Rams won this one — no giveaways, against Patriots at 2 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams won this one — +0.16 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.21 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.40 expected points per snap, against Patriots at +0.10 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Rams won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Patriots at 5 chunk plays.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Rams163 of 177 plays carry both curves
(14:19) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −14.8 for PatriotsExpected points −6.42 for PatriotsThe model had Patriots 15 points higher than the market did.play 97
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 14:19NE +15% win prob(14:19) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:56LA +13% win prob(5:56) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at NE 20 for -7 yards (55-B.Fiske). FUMBLES (55-B.Fiske) [55-B.Fiske], RECOVERED by LA-91-K.Turner at NE 12. 91-K.Turner to NE 12 for no gain (77-B.Brown). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
2nd · 0:03LA +11% win prob(:03) 16-J.Karty 26 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
2nd · 7:22NE +8% win prob(7:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:14NE +8% win prob(7:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 3-D.Douglas to LA 32 for 28 yards (97-M.Hoecht) [39-J.McCollough].
4th · 2:00LA +7% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at NE 25 for -7 yards (0-B.Young).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Puka Nacua's 12-yard touchdown catch with 5:49 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
2nd7:22Cooper Kupp·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+77–7
2nd5:49Puka Nacua·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+714–7
2nd1:55Joey Slye·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Cardona+314–10
3rd14:19Cooper Kupp·69-yd TD catch69-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+721–10
3rd7:05Joey Slye·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Cardona+321–13
3rd3:35Colby Parkinson·19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+728–13
4th12:49Vederian Lowe·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Drake Mayefrom Drake Maye · kick blocked by M.Hoecht+628–19
4th4:57Joey Slye·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Cardona+328–22
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryPatriots
Rams7–2Patriots
405Total yards382
8.4Yards per play5.3
52%Success rate51%
29%Third-down rate43%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays5
18First downs22
0Sacks taken3
0Turnovers2
The read
Rams ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.59 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.40Rams: +0.40 expected points added per play
+0.10Patriots: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.59Rams: +0.59 expected points added per play
+0.29Patriots: +0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.16Rams: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.21Patriots: −0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 48 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Patriots’s 72 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Rams 5, Patriots 5.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.40 expected points added per play vs 0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NE's blitz rate sent, 63.0%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 11.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 55.3% in week 2.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.1 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
LA's blitz rate sent turned over: 22.6% in week 10 against 42.2% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 13 pts
right on their number · −0.5 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Patriots14.8%
inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
NoteNE's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 63.0%, 27.8 points above their season mean of 35.2% and 2.1 times their own 13.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass+20% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(14:19) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 14:19 · Rams · 2nd & 9 at LA 31 · gained 69 · +6.42 EP · +19.9% win probability
161 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 80 yards from the LA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
49%
Yards
784
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.2056%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.3256%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR28+0.0264%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.5756%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.0850%
Patriots1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Patriots 45 to the Rams 41
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 12 to the Patriots 43
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Rams0Patriots6
Rams0Patriots7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 23 to the Rams 9
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 27 to the Patriots 49
The period ended6 plays, from the Patriots 11 to the Rams 48
2nd quarter57 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 41 to the Rams 32
Rams6Patriots7
Rams7Patriots7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Patriots 5
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 27
Rams13Patriots7
Rams14Patriots7
Touchdown2 plays
Rams14Patriots10
Field goal14 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Rams 13
No good18 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Patriots 8
3rd quarter36 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Rams20Patriots10
Rams21Patriots10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 31
Rams21Patriots13
Field goal15 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Rams 2
Rams27Patriots13
Rams28Patriots13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 28 to the Patriots 19
The period ended8 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Rams 37
4th quarter47 plays
Rams28Patriots19
Touchdown5 plays, from the Rams 21 to the Rams 4
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 34 to the Rams 39
Rams28Patriots22
Field goal14 plays, from the Patriots 11 to the Rams 19
Punt13 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Patriots 35
The period ended6 plays, from the Patriots 10 to the Patriots 32
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -4
Closing total
42.5
Rams moneyline
-198
Patriots moneyline
+164
Rams closed -4 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 50 — over by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 57°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Rams 6 days · Patriots 7 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Jerod Mayo
4th · 1:55LA +7% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle intended for 3-D.Douglas INTERCEPTED by 26-K.Kinchens at LA 48. 26-K.Kinchens to NE 43 for 9 yards.
1st · 13:03LA +6% win prob(13:03) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on NE-38-R.Stevenson, Chop Block, 16 yards, enforced at LA 41 - No Play.
Ramscategory by categoryPatriots
Rams0
Patriots6
