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2024 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2024 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
RaidersLas Vegas19
BY 15final margin
DolphinsMiami34
Las Vegas Raiders 19 at Miami Dolphins 34. Final.
Dolphins -8 ✓O 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 11
Miami Dolphins 34, Raiders 19 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 3:28, 2nd and 11, on Jonnu Smith — 7.9 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:28 · 2nd and 11
Jonnu Smith
Dolphins
(3:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 9-J.Smith for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dolphins closed -8 and covered, winning by 15.
Miami Dolphins 34–19. Biggest swing: Q4 3:28, Dolphins +7.9% win probability on one snap.
7.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Devon AchaneDolphinsQ1 13:45(13:45) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 28-D.Achane pushed ob at 50 for 17 yards (5-D.Deablo). PENALTY on LV-98-M.Crosby, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at 50.
6.0pts
Ameer AbdullahRaidersQ4 4:30(4:30) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 8-A.Abdullah for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.0pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.66 expected points per dropback, against Raiders at +0.12 expected points per dropback.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Dolphins won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Raiders at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Dolphins won this one — +0.31 expected points per snap, against Raiders at +0.08 expected points per snap.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Dolphins won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Raiders160 of 171 plays carry both curves
(3:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 9-J.Smith for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +7.9 for DolphinsExpected points +5.98 for DolphinsThe model had Raiders 4 points higher than the market did.play 152
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 3:28MIA +8% win prob(3:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 9-J.Smith for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 4:30MIA +7% win prob(4:30) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 8-A.Abdullah for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:45MIA +6% win prob(13:45) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 28-D.Achane pushed ob at 50 for 17 yards (5-D.Deablo). PENALTY on LV-98-M.Crosby, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at 50.
3rd · 4:21MIA +6% win prob(4:21) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:27MIA +6% win prob(1:27) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 89-B.Bowers for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:43MIA +6% win prob(10:43) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 31-R.Mostert to LV 10 for 12 yards (18-J.Jones). PENALTY on LV-44-K.Chaisson, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LV 22 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jonnu Smith's 1-yard touchdown catch with 6:50 left in the 1st put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:50Jonnu Smith·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua TagovailoaLead never changed again+70–7
1st0:11Daniel Carlson·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+33–7
2nd6:50Jason Sanders·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap T.Addington+33–10
2nd0:48Daniel Carlson·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+36–10
3rd4:21Tyreek Hill·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+76–17
4th3:28Jonnu Smith·57-yd TD catch57-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+719–31
4th2:00Jason Sanders·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap T.Addington+319–34
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Raiderscategory by categoryDolphins
Raiders1–8Dolphins
328Total yards353
5.2Yards per play5.6
43%Success rate51%
57%Third-down rate67%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
4Explosive plays3
21First downs22
3Sacks taken2
1Turnovers0
The read
Dolphins ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.66 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Raiders: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.31Dolphins: +0.31 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.12Raiders: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.66Dolphins: +0.66 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Raiders: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.18Dolphins: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 63 snaps at a 76% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 63 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 4, Dolphins 5.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs 0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LV's early-down pass rate, 76.1%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 4.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 73.3% in week 3.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
high through week 11Against their seasonFourth Down
LV's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 60.0% in week 6 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 11.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 24 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.1 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−1.17× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Dolphins8.3%
inside their normal wobble · −4.3 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
NoteLV's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 35.6 points above their season mean of 31.1% and 1.4 times their own 24.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
66Dylan ParhamG · Every snap100%65 snaps
74Kolton MillerT · Every snap100%65 snaps
61Jordan MeredithG · Every snap100%65 snaps
—Delmar GlazeT · Every snap100%65 snaps
58Jackson Powers-JohnsonG · Every snap100%65 snaps
15Gardner MinshewQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
89Brock BowersTE · Full-time95%62 snaps
11Tre TuckerWR · Full-time89%58 snaps
16Jakobi MeyersWR · Full-time88%57 snaps
87Michael MayerTE · Heavy rotation52%34 snaps
19DJ TurnerWR · Rotational43%28 snaps
8Ameer AbdullahRB · Rotational34%22 snaps
3Zamir WhiteRB · Rotational34%22 snaps
22Alexander MattisonRB · Rotational31%20 snaps
88Justin ShorterTE · Situational14%9 snaps
80Terrace Marshall Jr.WR · Situational11%7 snaps
82Ramel KeytonWR · Situational8%5 snaps
77Thayer Munford Jr.T · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Andre JamesCNate HobbsCBZachary CarterDTCody WhitehairGDylan LaubeRBTrey TaylorSSHarrison BryantTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Will PutnamCDesmond RidderQBDJ GlazeT
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
70Kendall LammT · Every snap100%68 snaps
65Robert JonesG · Every snap100%68 snaps
74Liam EichenbergG · Every snap100%68 snaps
72Terron ArmsteadT · Every snap100%68 snaps
1Tua TagovailoaQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
55Aaron BrewerG · Every snap100%68 snaps
9Jonnu SmithTE · Full-time81%55 snaps
17Jaylen WaddleWR · Heavy rotation78%53 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Heavy rotation76%52 snaps
28De'Von AchaneRB · Heavy rotation62%42 snaps
89Julian HillTE · Heavy rotation56%38 snaps
83Malik WashingtonWR · Rotational40%27 snaps
81Durham SmytheTE · Rotational34%23 snaps
25Jaylen WrightRB · Rotational26%18 snaps
3Odell Beckham Jr.WR · Situational24%16 snaps
31Raheem MostertRB · Situational15%10 snaps
85River CracraftWR · Situational9%6 snaps
Inactive · 7
Andrew MeyerCKendall FullerCBEthan BonnerCBAlec IngoldFBMohamed KamaraOLBJeff WilsonRBDee EskridgeWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Tagovailoa pass+11% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(3:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 9-J.Smith for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 3:28 · Dolphins · 2nd & 11 at MIA 43 · gained 57 · +5.98 EP · +11.0% win probability
158 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 14 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 14 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 97 yards from the MIA 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
+0.21
Success rate
51%
Yards
681
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR32+0.1347%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.0378%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.4078%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.2876%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8-0.2150%
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.9243%
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Raiders0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Raiders0Dolphins6
Raiders0Dolphins7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Raiders 1
Raiders3Dolphins7
Field goal15 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Dolphins 9
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter44 plays
Raiders3Dolphins10
Field goal17 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Raiders 5
Raiders6Dolphins10
Field goal20 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Dolphins 4
The period ended7 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 35
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 46
Raiders6Dolphins16
Raiders6Dolphins17
Touchdown16 plays, from the Dolphins 3 to the Raiders 4
Raiders12Dolphins17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Dolphins 23
The period ended6 plays, from the Dolphins 40 to the Raiders 40
4th quarter52 plays
Raiders12Dolphins23
Raiders12Dolphins24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Raiders 2
Raiders18Dolphins24
Raiders19Dolphins24
Touchdown17 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Dolphins 10
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Raiders19Dolphins30
Raiders19Dolphins31
Touchdown9 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 44
Intercepted2 plays
Raiders19Dolphins34
Field goal5 plays, from the Raiders 31 to the Raiders 28
The period ended10 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Dolphins 28
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
