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2024 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2024 · Hard Rock Stadium

Las Vegas Raiders

19

Miami DolphinsWinner

34

MIA -8 ✓O 43.5 ✓16 mph wind

Miami Dolphins 34–19. Biggest swing: Q4 3:28, MIA +8% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIA ↑LV ↓
Q4 · 3:28LV 19 — MIA 30MIA ball · 2nd & 11MIA 90%

(3:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 9-J.Smith for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 3:28MIA +8% win prob(3:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 9-J.Smith for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 4:30MIA +7% win prob(4:30) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 8-A.Abdullah for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q1 · 13:45MIA +6% win prob(13:45) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 28-D.Achane pushed ob at 50 for 17 yards (5-D.Deablo). PENALTY on LV-98-M.Crosby, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at 50.
  4. Q3 · 4:21MIA +6% win prob(4:21) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:50MIA Touchdown

    (6:50) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 9-J.Smith for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 0 — MIA 7
  2. Q1 · 0:11LV Field goal

    (:11) 2-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: LV 3 — MIA 7
  3. Q2 · 6:50MIA Field goal

    (6:50) 7-J.Sanders 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: LV 3 — MIA 10
  4. Q2 · 0:48LV Field goal

    (:48) 2-D.Carlson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: LV 6 — MIA 10
  5. Q3 · 4:21MIA Touchdown

    (4:21) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 6 — MIA 17
  6. Q3 · 1:27LV Touchdown

    (1:27) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 89-B.Bowers for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: LV 12 — MIA 17
  7. Q4 · 10:41MIA Touchdown

    (10:41) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 12 — MIA 24
  8. Q4 · 4:30LV Touchdown

    (4:30) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 8-A.Abdullah for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 19 — MIA 24
  9. Q4 · 3:28MIA Touchdown

    (3:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 9-J.Smith for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 19 — MIA 31
  10. Q4 · 2:00MIA Field goal

    (2:00) 7-J.Sanders 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: LV 19 — MIA 34

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRaidersDolphins
Offensive plays6363
Total yards328353 (edge)
Yards per play5.25.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.080.31 (edge)
Success rate43%51% (edge)
Dropback rate76%59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.120.66 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.06 (edge)-0.18
Third downs8/148/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)4 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps2122 (edge)
Sacks taken32 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs 0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

28/36, 288 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

24.5 expected points added · +10.6% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Gardner MinshewQB

30/43, 282 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

4.9 expected points added · +2.0% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Devon AchaneRB

17 att, 73 yds, 1 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Alexander MattisonRB

5 att, 19 yds, 0 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Brock BowersTE

13/16 for 126 yds, 1 TD

41% of team targets · 10.6 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Jonnu SmithTE

6/8 for 101 yds, 2 TD

23% of team targets · 8.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MIAMIA 3016508:13Touchdown +7
2LVLV 3013516:39Field goal +3
3MIAMIA 3517528:22Field goal +3
4LVLV 3017666:01Field goal +3
5MIAMIA 255250:45End of half
6LVLV 307103:00Punt
7MIAMIA 315977:47Touchdown +7
8LVLV 3010752:52Touchdown +6
9MIAMIA 4012655:44Touchdown +7
10LVLV 3016806:14Touchdown +7
11MIAMIA 306611:04Touchdown +7
12LVLV 30200:07Interception
13MIALV 31431:17Field goal +3
14LVLV 309461:55End of game

10 of 14 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 97 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Gardner Minshew30/432822134.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jakobi Meyers12020.001.7
Alexander Mattison5193.800.1
Zamir White591.80-1.7
Gardner Minshew273.501.0
Tre Tucker177.000.5
Ameer Abdullah111.00-0.4
Brock Bowers1-3-3.00-1.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Brock Bowers1316126141%10.6
Alexander Mattison335008%2.7
D.J. Turner332908%1.9
Jakobi Meyers4628015%-3.5
Tre Tucker3428010%0.1
Ameer Abdullah331618%2.9
Michael Mayer13508%-1.0
Ramel Keyton01003%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Robert Spillane460.000
Jack Jones610.000
Darnay Holmes330.000
Trevon Moehrig230.001
Adam Butler231.000
Maxx Crosby320.000
Decamerion Richardson230.000
Divine Deablo310.000
Charles Snowden120.001
Isaiah Pola-Mao300.000

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa28/3628830224.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Devon Achane17734.310.4
Malik Washington177.000.3
Jaylen Wright540.80-3.9
Raheem Mostert3-2-0.70-1.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jonnu Smith68101223%8.9
Tyreek Hill7861123%10.3
Jaylen Waddle233709%2.0
Devon Achane4432011%4.0
Julian Hill232809%2.4
Odell Beckham2413011%-0.6
Malik Washington331109%-0.1
Durham Smythe11303%1.0
Jaylen Wright11203%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jordyn Brooks840.000
Anthony Walker540.000
Jordan Poyer150.000
Kader Kohou500.000
Jalen Ramsey500.012
Storm Duck220.000
Zach Sieler311.000
Quinton Bell300.001
Jevon Holland200.000
Calais Campbell111.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIA -8
Closing total
43.5
LV moneyline
+330
MIA moneyline
-425

Dolphins closed -8 and covered, winning by 15.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 53 — over by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
80°F, wind 16 mph
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
LV 14 days · MIA 6 days
Coaches
Antonio Pierce vs Mike McDaniel

Wind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.