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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:04 AM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2024 · Nissan Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 11
It turned at Q1 10:31, 1st and 10 — 11.6 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Minnesota Vikings 23–13. Biggest swing: Q1 10:31, Titans +11.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:31 · 1st and 10
Unnamed on the sheet
Titans
(10:31) 14-S.Darnold FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 42, touched at TEN 43, RECOVERED by TEN-98-J.Simmons at TEN 45.
11.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Vikings won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Titans at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Vikings won this one — 38% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Titans at 27% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Vikings at 2 giveaways.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Vikings won this one — -0.42 expected points per carry, against Titans at -0.59 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 11.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
(10:31) 14-S.Darnold FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 42, touched at TEN 43, RECOVERED by TEN-98-J.Simmons at TEN 45.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jordan Addison's 47-yard touchdown catch with 3:25 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Jordan Addison47-yd TD catch47-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam DarnoldLead never changed again+77–37 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Vikingscategory by categoryTitans
Vikings ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.59 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 66 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Titans’s 55 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 4, Titans 2.
Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
MIN's pass rate over expected turned over: −4.8 pts in week 10 against +5.9 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.4 points. · +0.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Vikings5.9 ptsright on their number · +1.8 vs their 4.1 pts, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 66 snaps
Titans-4.4 ptsright on their number · +2.2 vs their -6.7 pts, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 55 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 87%
Tendencies room →Vikings51.9%right on their number · −2.6 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 52 early downs
Titans63.2%inside their normal wobble · +8.4 vs their 54.8%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 38 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 47%
Tendencies room →Vikings21.6%inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 26.9%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Titans15.8%inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 21.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13% to 88%
Fourth Down room →Vikings—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.0%.
Titans33.3%right on their number · −4.6 vs their 38.0%, and they swing ±19.8 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 77%
Tendencies room →Vikings42.1%right on their number · −2.7 vs their 44.8%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Titans27.0%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 28.9%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 32%
Tendencies room →Vikings23.7%leaned — got home · +7.4 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.21× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Titans10.8%right on their number · −1.2 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
MIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.7%, 7.4 points above their season mean of 16.3% and 1.2 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 8 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 8
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · TEN
17/31, 295 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
1.9 expected points added · -4.8% completion over expected
Passing · MIN
20/32, 246 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
7.4 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected
Receiving · TEN
2/6 for 117 yds, 1 TD
21% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added
Receiving · MIN
6/8 for 81 yds, 0 TD
27% of team targets · 6.4 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine banked 10.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 23.6 | −0.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/32, 246 yd, 2 TD · 8 car, 18 yd, 1 TD |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Featured Receiver | 19.7 | +10.0 | 85% | 79% | 21% | 30% | 2/6, 117 yd, 1 TD |
| Will LevisQB · Starter QB | 15.6 | +2.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/31, 295 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 7 car, 18 yd |
| Jordan AddisonWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.1 | −0.1 | 60% | 59% | 27% | 42% | 3/8, 61 yd, 1 TD |
| Justin JeffersonWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.1 | −2.0 | 99% | 92% | 27% | 24% | 6/8, 81 yd |
| Cam AkersRB | 11.6 | +1.3 | 37% | 38% | 7% | 1% | 10 car, 25 yd · 2/2, 11 yd, 1 TD |
| Calvin RidleyWR · Featured Receiver | 9.8 | 0.0 | 88% | 89% | 21% | 44% | 4/6, 58 yd |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.4 | +1.8 | 56% | 54% | 10% | 4% | 3/3, 34 yd |
| Tyler BoydWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | +1.6 | 59% | 71% | 10% | 8% | 2/3, 34 yd |
| Aaron JonesRB · Committee Back | 5.3 | −6.6 | 53% | 41% | 3% | 0% | 15 car, 39 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Tony PollardRB · Committee Back | 4.9 | −5.3 | 63% | 47% | 14% | 0% | 9 car, 15 yd · 2/4, 14 yd |
| Bryce OliverWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | +3.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Chigoziem OkonkwoTE | 3.9 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −1.2 | 48% | 49% | 10% | 5% | 2/3, 13 yd |
| Tyjae SpearsRB · Receiving Back | 2.8 | −2.9 | 44% | 47% | 10% | 1% | 3 car, 0 yd · 2/3, 8 yd |
| Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +1.3 | 22% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 16 yd |
| Johnny MundtTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +0.9 | 26% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 13 yd |
| Brandon PowellWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +0.4 | 23% | 24% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 13 yd |
| Nick VannettTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.1 | 61% | 45% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Josh WhyleTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.1 | 24% | 21% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Ty ChandlerRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Jalen NailorWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.1 | 44% | 46% | 7% | 17% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Julius ChestnutRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jha'Quan JacksonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:12) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 7:12 · Titans · 3rd & 10 at TEN 2 · gained 98 · +8.20 EP · +19.8% win probability
159 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 173 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 98 yards from the TEN 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Vikings0
Titans3How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Vikings6Titans3Vikings7Titans3Vikings13Titans3Vikings16Titans3How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Vikings16Titans9Vikings16Titans10Vikings22Titans10Vikings23Titans10Vikings23Titans13Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Vikings at Titans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 20/32 | 246 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +7.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 15 | 39 | 2.6 | 0 | −4.8 |
| Cam Akers | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 0 | −2.8 |
| Sam Darnold | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 1 | −3.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 6 | 8 | 81 | 0 | 27% | +6.4 |
| Jordan Addison | 3 | 8 | 61 | 1 | 27% | +0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 6 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Greenard | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Jones | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Murphy |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 17/31 | 295 | 1 | 1 | 5 | +1.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_11_MIN_TEN
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Vikings closed -6 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 40; the game landed 36 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
| Josh Oliver | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 10% | +1.9 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 3% | +2.2 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 10% | +1.3 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | +1.4 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | +1.1 |
| Cam Akers | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 7% | +1.5 |
| Aaron Jones | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Jalen Nailor | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −1.3 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Blake Cashman | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Metellus | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephon Gilmore | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Camryn Bynum | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bo Richter | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Smith | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| 7 |
| 18 |
| 2.6 |
| 0 |
| −2.1 |
| Tony Pollard | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 0 | −5.3 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2 | 6 | 117 | 1 | 21% | +7.1 |
| Calvin Ridley | 4 | 6 | 58 | 0 | 21% | +2.3 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 10% | −0.8 |
| Bryce Oliver | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 | 3% | +3.7 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 14% | +1.2 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 14% | −1.0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 10% | −1.4 |
| Josh Whyle | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Murray | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerome Baker | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harold Landry | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrell Baker | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| T'Vondre Sweat | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arden Key | 5 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amani Hooker | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Brown | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roger McCreary | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
