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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 300s tick · as of 5:47 PM ET · 16 to play
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Seahawks151 of 163 plays carry both curves
(:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −42.6 for 49ersExpected points −3.39 for 49ersThe model had Seahawks 6 points higher than the market did.play 157
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:18SF +43% win prob(:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:36SF +13% win prob(1:36) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SF 34 for 15 yards (27-J.Brown).
4th · 4:01SEA +12% win prob(4:01) 26-Z.Charbonnet left guard to SF 37 for no gain (27-J.Brown; 53-D.Winters).
4th · 13:42SF +11% win prob(13:42) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 15-J.Jennings to SEA 20 for 14 yards (21-D.Witherspoon; 39-T.Okada).
2nd · 10:17SEA +11% win prob(10:17) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left intended for 23-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 97-J.Hankins (21-D.Witherspoon) at SF 29. 97-J.Hankins to SF 29 for no gain.
4th · 0:07SEA +10% win prob(:07) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 1-D.Samuel to SF 36 for 4 yards [58-D.Hall]. Lateral to 68-C.McKivitz to SF 37 for 1 yard (99-L.Williams). FUMBLES (99-L.Williams), RECOVERED by SEA-58-D.Hall at SF 34. PENALTY on SF-82-E.Saubert, Offensive Pass Interference, 0 yards, enforced at SF 32 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Geno Smith's 13-yard rushing touchdown with 0:18 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:17Jason Myers·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+33–0
4th0:18Geno Smith·13-yd TD run13-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+720–17
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by category49ers
Seahawks4–349ers
289Total yards277
4.9Yards per play4.9
47%Success rate47%
46%Third-down rate64%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays5
18First downs19
4Sacks taken2
1Turnovers2
The read
Seahawks ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to 49ers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.00Seahawks: +0.00 expected points added per play
+0.1049ers: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.11Seahawks: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.1549ers: +0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Seahawks: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.0249ers: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 59 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against 49ers’s 57 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 2, 49ers 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SF's blitz rate sent, 5.3%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 1.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 9.6% in week 6.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 10.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
49ers15.8%
right on their number · +2.0 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteSF's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 5.3%, 14.9 points below their season mean of 20.2% and 1.4 times their own 10.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Smith scrambles+42% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:18 · Seahawks · 2nd & 2 at SF 13 · gained 13 · +3.39 EP · +41.5% win probability
149 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 80 yards from the SEA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
45%
Yards
566
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.0271%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.3159%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR18-0.2456%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.0640%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.2213%
49ers2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the 49ers 35
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Seahawks349ers0
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the 49ers 27
Seahawks349ers6
Seahawks349ers7
Touchdown14 plays, from the 49ers 29 to the Seahawks 5
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 34 to the 49ers 43
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 25
Seahawks649ers7
Field goal4 plays
Punt17 plays, from the 49ers 27 to the Seahawks 34
Punt12 plays, from the Seahawks 9 to the Seahawks 49
The period ended7 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the 49ers 40
3rd quarter33 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Seahawks 15 to the Seahawks 17
Seahawks649ers10
Field goal9 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Seahawks 15
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Seahawks1249ers10
Seahawks1349ers10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the 49ers 1
The period ended7 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Seahawks 44
4th quarter48 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Seahawks1349ers16
Seahawks1349ers17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the Seahawks 3
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the 49ers 37
The period ended8 plays, from the 49ers 37 to the Seahawks 42
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Seahawks1949ers17
Seahawks2049ers17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the 49ers 13
The period ended5 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the 49ers 32
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
