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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2024 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 11
It turned at Q4 0:18, 2nd and 2, on Geno Smith — 42.6 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Seattle Seahawks 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:18, Seahawks +42.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:18 · 2nd and 2
Geno Smith
Seahawks
(:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
42.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 11 on third down, against Seahawks at 6 of 13 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Seahawks won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against 49ers at 2 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers owned this one and still lost it — +0.02 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.19 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — 1 giveaway, against 49ers at 2 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
(:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Geno Smith's 13-yard rushing touchdown with 0:18 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Seahawkscategory by category49ers
Seahawks ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to 49ers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 59 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against 49ers’s 57 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 2, 49ers 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
SF's blitz rate sent, 5.3%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 11 — 1.4 points clear of the next team along.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Seahawks-3.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 1.7 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.73× that swing) · 59 snaps
49ers-1.7 ptsright on their number · +0.6 vs their -2.3 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 94%
Tendencies room →Seahawks63.6%right on their number · +2.2 vs their 61.4%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 44 early downs
49ers56.5%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 47%
Tendencies room →Seahawks15.8%right on their number · −3.6 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
49ers22.9%right on their number · +3.5 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 116%
Fourth Down room →Seahawks—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 39.6%.
49ers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 21.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 59%
Tendencies room →Seahawks40.0%leaned — sent pressure · +13.4 vs their 26.6%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (+1.06× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
49ers5.3%leaned — sat back · −14.9 vs their 20.2%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 36%
Tendencies room →Seahawks11.4%inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
49ers15.8%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
SF's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 5.3%, 14.9 points below their season mean of 20.2% and 1.4 times their own 10.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SEA
25/32, 221 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-0.8 expected points added · +16.0% completion over expected
Passing · SF
21/28, 159 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
0.8 expected points added · +2.0% completion over expected
Receiving · SEA
10/11 for 110 yds, 0 TD
35% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jauan Jennings banked 5.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jauan JenningsWR · Alpha Receiver | 25.1 | +5.1 | 95% | 97% | 39% | 46% | 10/11, 91 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.8 | +4.6 | 83% | 92% | 35% | 38% | 1 car, 8 yd · 10/11, 110 yd |
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 18.4 | +0.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/28, 159 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 40 yd, 1 TD |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 15.7 | +2.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/32, 221 yd, 1 INT · 4 car, 29 yd, 1 TD |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back | 14.6 | −4.3 | 94% | 94% | 18% | 13% | 19 car, 79 yd · 4/5, 27 yd |
| DK MetcalfWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.0 | +0.2 | 90% | 95% | 29% | 41% | 7/9, 70 yd |
| Kenneth WalkerRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.9 | +0.1 | 73% | 68% | 6% | 0% | 14 car, 54 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 5 yd |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Alpha Receiver | 6.1 | −6.3 | 87% | 91% | 25% | 19% | 1 car, -1 yd · 4/7, 22 yd |
| Tyler LockettWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −1.4 | 78% | 97% | 10% | 15% | 2/3, 19 yd |
| A.J. BarnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −3.3 | 85% | 92% | 13% | 11% | 2/4, 15 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 3.2 | +0.1 | 37% | 37% | 7% | 7% | 2/2, 12 yd |
| Zach CharbonnetRB | 2.5 | −1.6 | 32% | 32% | 6% | 0% | 4 car, 3 yd · 2/2, 2 yd |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.1 | 97% | 94% | 4% | 5% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Jordan MasonRB | 1.3 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kenny McIntoshRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 37% | 18% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Ricky PearsallWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.4 | 59% | 63% | 7% | 10% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Jacob CowingWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Isaac GuerendoRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brayden WillisTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:18 · Seahawks · 2nd & 2 at SF 13 · gained 13 · +3.39 EP · +41.5% win probability
149 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 80 yards from the SEA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Seahawks3
49ers0Seahawks349ers6Seahawks349ers7How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Seahawks649ers7Seahawks649ers10How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Seahawks1249ers10Seahawks1349ers10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Seahawks1349ers16Seahawks1349ers17How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Seahawks1949ers17Seahawks2049ers17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Seahawks at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 25/32 | 221 | 0 | 1 | 4 | −0.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 1 | +2.1 |
| Geno Smith | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 1 | +1.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 10 | 11 | 110 | 0 | 35% | +5.7 |
| DK Metcalf | 7 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Jones | 6 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrice Knight | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Love |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 21/28 | 159 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +0.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_11_SEA_SF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 49; the game landed 37 — under by 12.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 8 |
| 8.0 |
| 0 |
| +1.0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 | −3.2 |
| 29% |
| +4.0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 10% | −0.0 |
| A.J. Barner | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 13% | −1.1 |
| Kenneth Walker | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6% | −0.5 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6% | −1.6 |
| 7 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Devon Witherspoon | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Tariq Woolen | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Coby Bryant | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derick Hall | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Williams | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Boye Mafe | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Ty Okada | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 19 | 79 | 4.2 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Brock Purdy | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 1 | +4.6 |
| Jordan Mason | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Deebo Samuel | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jauan Jennings | 10 | 11 | 91 | 1 | 39% | +9.1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 18% | −4.6 |
| Deebo Samuel | 4 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 25% | −1.9 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 7% | +0.4 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.6 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deommodore Lenoir | 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Renardo Green | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| De'Vondre Campbell | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Mustapha | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bosa | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Floyd | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac Yiadom | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Fred Warner | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maliek Collins | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
