2024 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2024 · Levi's Stadium

Seattle SeahawksWinner

San Francisco 49ers

SF -6 upsetU 49 ✓49ers closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Seattle Seahawks 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:18, SF +43% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:18SEA 19 — SF 17SEA ball · 2nd & 2SF 60%

(:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:18SF +43% win prob(:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:36SF +13% win prob(1:36) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SF 34 for 15 yards (27-J.Brown).
Q4 · 4:01SEA +12% win prob(4:01) 26-Z.Charbonnet left guard to SF 37 for no gain (27-J.Brown; 53-D.Winters).
Q4 · 13:42SF +11% win prob(13:42) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 15-J.Jennings to SEA 20 for 14 yards (21-D.Witherspoon; 39-T.Okada).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:17SEA Field goal
(8:17) 5-J.Myers 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: SEA 3 — SF 0
Q1 · 0:17SF Touchdown
(:17) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 3 — SF 7
Q2 · 8:46SEA Field goal
(8:46) 5-J.Myers 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: SEA 6 — SF 7
Q3 · 9:29SF Field goal
(9:29) 4-J.Moody 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.
Score after this play: SEA 6 — SF 10
Q3 · 3:29SEA Touchdown
(3:29) 61-J.Sundell reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 13 — SF 10
Q4 · 9:38SF Touchdown
(9:38) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 15-J.Jennings for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 13 — SF 17
Q4 · 0:18SEA Touchdown
(:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 20 — SF 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	49ers
Offensive plays	59	57
Total yards	289 (edge)	277
Yards per play	4.9 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	0.00	0.10 (edge)
Success rate	47% (edge)	47%
Dropback rate	64%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11	0.15 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.19	0.02 (edge)
Third downs	6/13	7/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	18	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

25/32, 221 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-0.8 expected points added · +16.0% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

21/28, 159 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

0.8 expected points added · +2.0% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

19 att, 79 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Kenneth WalkerRB

14 att, 54 yds, 1 TD

2.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR

10/11 for 110 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Jauan JenningsWR

10/11 for 91 yds, 1 TD

39% of team targets · 9.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 26	5	9	2:14	Punt
2	SEA	SEA 22	9	39	4:33	Field goal +3
3	SF	SF 29	14	71	8:03	Touchdown +7
4	SEA	SEA 30	9	34	4:10	Punt
5	SF	SF 20	2	5	0:51	Interception
6	SEA	SF 29	4	-9	1:28	Field goal +3
7	SF	SF 27	13	45	7:00	Punt
8	SEA	SEA 9	7	40	1:17	Punt
9	SF	SF 24	3	22	0:24	End of half
10	SEA	SEA 15	4	2	1:03	Interception
11	SF	SEA 27	7	27	4:31	Field goal +3
12	SEA	SEA 30	13	70	6:01	Touchdown +7
13	SF	SF 30	16	80	8:52	Touchdown +7
14	SEA	SEA 30	11	33	5:37	Turnover on downs
15	SF	SF 37	6	16	1:18	Punt
16	SEA	SEA 20	12	80	2:26	Touchdown +7
17	SF	SF 30	2	2	0:12	Fumble

7 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 80 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Geno Smith	25/32	221	0	1	4	-0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kenneth Walker	14	54	3.9	1	2.1
Geno Smith	4	29	7.3	1	1.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	1	8	8.0	0	1.0
Zach Charbonnet	4	3	0.8	0	-3.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	10	11	110	35%	5.7
DK Metcalf	7	9	70	29%	4.0
Tyler Lockett	2	3	19	10%	-0.0
A.J. Barner	2	4	15	13%	-1.1
Kenneth Walker	2	2	5	6%	-0.5
Zach Charbonnet	2	2	2	6%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Ernest Jones	6	7	0.0	0
Tyrice Knight	4	6	0.0	0
Julian Love	7	2	0.0	0
Devon Witherspoon	3	5	0.0	3
Tariq Woolen	3	2	0.0	0
Coby Bryant	2	2	0.0	0
Derick Hall	2	1	1.0	0
Leonard Williams	1	2	0.0	0
Boye Mafe	0	2	0.0	2
Ty Okada	1	1	0.0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Purdy	21/28	159	1	1	2	0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	19	79	4.2	0	0.9
Brock Purdy	5	40	8.0	1	4.6
Jordan Mason	2	13	6.5	0	0.8
Deebo Samuel	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jauan Jennings	10	11	91	1	39%	9.1
Christian McCaffrey	4	5	27	0	18%	-4.6
Deebo Samuel	4	7	22	0	25%	-1.9
Kyle Juszczyk	2	2	12	0	7%	0.4
Eric Saubert	1	1	7	0	4%	0.6
Ricky Pearsall	0	2	0	0	7%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Deommodore Lenoir	8	0	0.0	0	0
Renardo Green	7	1	0.0	0	1
De'Vondre Campbell	2	5	0.0	0	0
Ji'Ayir Brown	2	3	0.0	0	0
Malik Mustapha	2	3	0.0	0	0
Nick Bosa	2	2	1.5	0	0
Leonard Floyd	2	1	1.5	0	0
Isaac Yiadom	2	1	0.0	1	1
Fred Warner	1	2	0.0	0	0
Maliek Collins	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -6
Closing total: 49
SEA moneyline: +215
SF moneyline: -265

49ers closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49; the game landed 37 — under by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 59°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: SEA 14 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Mike Macdonald vs Kyle Shanahan

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.