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2024 Week 11 · Thu, Nov 14, 2024 · Lincoln Financial Field

Washington Commanders

18

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

26

PHI -4.5 ✓U 49.5 ✓

Philadelphia Eagles 26–18. Biggest swing: Q4 8:01, WAS +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3PHI ↑WAS ↓
Q4 · 8:01WAS 10 — PHI 12WAS ball · 4th & 2PHI 56%

(8:01) (No Huddle) 5-J.Daniels right end pushed ob at PHI 26 for no gain (53-Z.Baun, 32-R.Blankenship).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 8:01WAS +21% win prob(8:01) (No Huddle) 5-J.Daniels right end pushed ob at PHI 26 for no gain (53-Z.Baun, 32-R.Blankenship).
  2. Q3 · 7:47PHI +15% win prob(7:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 26-S.Barkley to WAS 17 for 43 yards (11-J.Chinn).
  3. Q4 · 7:14PHI +9% win prob(7:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 88-D.Goedert to WAS 39 for 32 yards (20-Q.Martin; 11-J.Chinn). FUMBLES (20-Q.Martin), recovered by PHI-81-G.Calcaterra at WAS 32. 81-G.Calcaterra to WAS 30 for 2 yards.
  4. Q4 · 15:00PHI +8% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles right end pushed ob at WAS 38 for 7 yards (35-P.Butler).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 3:32WAS Touchdown

    (3:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 7 — PHI 0
  2. Q2 · 0:22PHI Field goal

    (:22) 4-J.Elliott 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

    Score after this play: WAS 7 — PHI 3
  3. Q3 · 11:07WAS Field goal

    (11:07) 47-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: WAS 10 — PHI 3
  4. Q3 · 5:36PHI Field goal

    (5:36) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

    Score after this play: WAS 10 — PHI 6
  5. Q4 · 12:04PHI Touchdown

    (12:04) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: WAS 10 — PHI 12
  6. Q4 · 5:05PHI Touchdown

    (5:05) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right end for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 10 — PHI 19
  7. Q4 · 4:45PHI Touchdown

    (4:45) 26-S.Barkley right guard for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 10 — PHI 26
  8. Q4 · 0:31WAS Touchdown

    (:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: WAS 18 — PHI 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCommandersEagles
Offensive plays6469
Total yards266435 (edge)
Yards per play4.26.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.120.20 (edge)
Success rate44%46% (edge)
Dropback rate63%49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.020.12 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.350.28 (edge)
Third downs3/129/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)38 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1822 (edge)
Sacks taken32 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

18/28, 221 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

0.9 expected points added · +2.9% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

22/32, 191 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

1.4 expected points added · -4.2% completion over expected

Rushing · PHI

Saquon BarkleyRB

26 att, 146 yds, 2 TD

6.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Brian RobinsonRB

16 att, 63 yds, 1 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Austin EkelerRB

8/9 for 89 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 2.0 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

A.J. BrownWR

5/8 for 65 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 1.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1PHIPHI 3012545:05Missed field goal
2WASWAS 34461:15Punt
3PHIPHI 97113:15Punt
4WASWAS 425581:59Touchdown +7
5PHIPHI 36561:11Punt
6WASWAS 6462:12Punt
7PHIWAS 487153:28Missed field goal
8WASWAS 414-61:44Punt
9PHIPHI 26461:38Punt
10WASWAS 2710374:02Punt
11PHIPHI 1015823:52Field goal +3
12WASWAS 305230:19End of half
13WASWAS 319333:57Field goal +3
14PHIPHI 1311745:31Field goal +3
15WASWAS 30773:05Punt
16PHIPHI 2412765:27Touchdown +6
17WASWAS 2910454:05Turnover on downs
18PHIPHI 266652:57Touchdown +7
19WASWAS 30200:08Interception
20PHIWAS 463460:12Touchdown +7
21WASWAS 3017574:10Touchdown +8
22PHIWAS 47200:28End of game

8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 82 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jayden Daniels22/321911131.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Brian Robinson16633.91-2.0
Jayden Daniels7182.60-4.8
Austin Ekeler273.50-1.0
Jeremy McNichols351.70-1.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Austin Ekeler8989028%2.0
Zach Ertz6747122%8.8
John Bates231709%0.8
Olamide Zaccheaus121006%1.3
Terry McLaurin121006%-0.6
Brian Robinson11903%0.8
Dyami Brown12406%-0.2
Noah Brown144013%-6.4
Jeremy McNichols11103%-0.3
Luke McCaffrey01003%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jeremy Chinn930.000
Frankie Luvu642.000
Bobby Wagner440.000
Benjamin St-Juste610.000
Noah Igbinoghene420.000
Quan Martin150.000
Mike Sainristil330.002
Dorance Armstrong310.000
Daron Payne210.000
Jeremy Reaves200.000

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jalen Hurts18/282210020.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Saquon Barkley261465.626.1
Kenneth Gainwell44310.802.0
Jalen Hurts10393.913.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
A.J. Brown5865032%1.7
Dallas Goedert5561020%3.8
Saquon Barkley2352012%3.8
DeVonta Smith4629024%-0.4
Jahan Dotson12808%-1.0
Kenneth Gainwell11604%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Zack Baun760.001
Reed Blankenship460.011
Nakobe Dean720.001
Jalen Carter330.000
Cooper DeJean230.000
Jordan Davis120.000
Nolan Smith211.000
Brandon Graham211.000
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson210.001
Darius Slay200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
PHI -4.5
Closing total
49.5
WAS moneyline
+190
PHI moneyline
-230

Eagles closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 44 — under by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
46°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
WAS 4 days · PHI 4 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs Nick Sirianni

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.