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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Ravens165 of 176 plays carry both curves
(:32) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 7-R.Bateman for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-7-K.Fulton, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Swing −16.0 for ChargersExpected points −4.48 for ChargersThe model had Chargers 9 points higher than the market did.play 72
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:32LAC +16% win prob(:32) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 7-R.Bateman for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-7-K.Fulton, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
3rd · 2:38LAC +13% win prob(2:38) 22-D.Henry left guard to LAC 34 for 27 yards (0-D.Henley; 29-T.Still).
3rd · 11:44LAC +10% win prob(11:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 4-Z.Flowers ran ob at LAC 33 for 25 yards.
3rd · 5:43LAC +10% win prob(5:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 15-L.McConkey to BAL 33 for 19 yards (14-K.Hamilton).
1st · 5:42LAC +8% win prob(5:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 15-L.McConkey to LAC 26 for 16 yards (2-N.Wiggins).
4th · 12:36LAC +8% win prob(12:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:16
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rashod Bateman's 40-yard touchdown catch with 0:32 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Ravens ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.33Ravens: +0.33 expected points added per play
+0.01Chargers: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.34Ravens: +0.34 expected points added per play
+0.00Chargers: +0.00 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.32Ravens: +0.32 expected points added per play
+0.02Chargers: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 59 snaps at a 41% dropback rate against Chargers’s 60 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 4, Chargers 2.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 12Against their seasonTendencies
LAC's blitz rate sent, 45.8%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 6 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
high through week 12Against their seasonTendencies
LAC's early-down pass rate, 70.5%, is past their previous high of 67.3% in week 7 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
LAC's sack or hit rate turned over: 23.6% in week 11 against 8.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −0.7 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Chargers8.3%
inside their normal wobble · −5.8 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
NoteLAC's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 45.8%, 21.0 points above their season mean of 24.8% and 2.1 times their own 10.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
65Patrick MekariG · Every snap100%65 snaps
77Daniel FaaleleT · Every snap100%65 snaps
79Ronnie StanleyT · Every snap100%65 snaps
70Roger RosengartenT · Every snap100%65 snaps
64Tyler LinderbaumC · Every snap100%65 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
4Zay FlowersWR · Heavy rotation77%50 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Heavy rotation60%39 snaps
7Rashod BatemanWR · Heavy rotation57%37 snaps
80Isaiah LikelyTE · Heavy rotation54%35 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Heavy rotation54%35 snaps
88Charlie KolarTE · Rotational49%32 snaps
15Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational45%29 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Rotational42%27 snaps
43Justice HillRB · Rotational40%26 snaps
16Tylan WallaceWR · Situational11%7 snaps
18Diontae JohnsonWR · Situational9%6 snaps
81Devontez WalkerWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Nick SamacCArthur MauletCBRoquan SmithILBDavid OjaboOLBRasheen AliRBSanoussi KaneSS
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson pass+15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(:32) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 7-R.Bateman for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-7-K.Fulton, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q2 0:32 · Ravens · 1st & 10 at LAC 40 · gained 40 · +4.48 EP · +14.8% win probability
163 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 93 yards from the BAL 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
47%
Yards
674
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.0881%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20+0.2270%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR17+0.556%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13+0.1023%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.4667%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.5817%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.3420%
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Chargers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Ravens0Chargers6
Ravens0Chargers7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Ravens 5
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Ravens 40
Punt9 plays, from the Chargers 13 to the Chargers 31
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Ravens 21
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 36 to the Chargers 44
2nd quarter47 plays
Ravens0Chargers10
Field goal8 plays, from the Ravens 39 to the Ravens 24
Ravens6Chargers10
Ravens7Chargers10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Chargers 5
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 30 to midfield
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Ravens13Chargers10
Ravens14Chargers10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 7 to the Chargers 40
Ravens14Chargers13
Field goal10 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Ravens 34
3rd quarter33 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.6 seconds
Ravens17Chargers13
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Chargers 27
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Ravens17Chargers16
Field goal12 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Ravens 33
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
The period ended10 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Chargers 28
4th quarter59 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Ravens23Chargers16
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 6
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Chargers 34
Ravens29Chargers16
Ravens30Chargers16
Touchdown7 plays, from the Ravens 28 to the Ravens 49
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 45 to the Ravens 40
The period ended10 plays, from the Ravens 9 to the Ravens 30
Ravens30Chargers22
Ravens30Chargers23
Touchdown19 plays, from the Chargers 37 to the Ravens 1
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
