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2024 Week 12 · Mon, Nov 25, 2024 · SoFi Stadium

Baltimore RavensWinner

30

Los Angeles Chargers

23

BAL -3 ✓O 51 ✓Dome

Baltimore Ravens 30–23. Biggest swing: Q2 0:32, LAC +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LAC ↑BAL ↓
Q2 · 0:32BAL 13 — LAC 10BAL ball · 1st & 10BAL 59%

(:32) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 7-R.Bateman for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-7-K.Fulton, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 0:32LAC +16% win prob(:32) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 7-R.Bateman for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-7-K.Fulton, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
  2. Q3 · 2:38LAC +13% win prob(2:38) 22-D.Henry left guard to LAC 34 for 27 yards (0-D.Henley; 29-T.Still).
  3. Q3 · 11:44LAC +10% win prob(11:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 4-Z.Flowers ran ob at LAC 33 for 25 yards.
  4. Q3 · 5:43LAC +10% win prob(5:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 15-L.McConkey to BAL 33 for 19 yards (14-K.Hamilton).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:52LAC Touchdown

    (9:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 0 — LAC 7
  2. Q2 · 11:30LAC Field goal

    (11:30) 11-C.Dicker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: BAL 0 — LAC 10
  3. Q2 · 7:55BAL Touchdown

    (7:55) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 7 — LAC 10
  4. Q2 · 0:32BAL Touchdown

    (:32) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 7-R.Bateman for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-7-K.Fulton, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 14 — LAC 10
  5. Q2 · 0:02LAC Field goal

    (:02) 11-C.Dicker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: BAL 14 — LAC 13
  6. Q3 · 9:33BAL Field goal

    (9:33) 9-J.Tucker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 17 — LAC 13
  7. Q3 · 4:12LAC Field goal

    (4:12) 11-C.Dicker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: BAL 17 — LAC 16
  8. Q4 · 12:36BAL Touchdown

    (12:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: BAL 23 — LAC 16
  9. Q4 · 7:34BAL Touchdown

    (7:34) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill left end for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC-32-A.Gilman was injured during the play. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 30 — LAC 16
  10. Q4 · 0:50LAC Touchdown

    (:50) (Shotgun) 4-G.Edwards left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 30 — LAC 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRavensChargers
Offensive plays5960
Total yards391 (edge)285
Yards per play6.6 (edge)4.8
Expected points added / play0.33 (edge)0.01
Success rate46% (edge)42%
Dropback rate41%73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.34 (edge)0.00
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.32 (edge)0.02
Third downs8/15 (edge)5/14
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)9 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps19 (edge)16
Sacks taken1 (edge)4
Turnovers00

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs 0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

21/36, 218 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-1.8 expected points added · -8.0% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

16/22, 177 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.1 expected points added · +10.6% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

24 att, 140 yds, 0 TD

6.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

J.K. DobbinsRB

6 att, 40 yds, 0 TD

1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Ladd McConkeyWR

6/6 for 83 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 9.0 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Zay FlowersWR

5/8 for 62 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 0.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LACLAC 3011705:15Touchdown +7
2BALBAL 307153:14Punt
3LACLAC 137283:34Punt
4BALBAL 16450:58Punt
5LACLAC 3611405:33Field goal +3
6BALBAL 309753:38Touchdown +7
7LACLAC 307283:54Punt
8BALBAL 79813:30Touchdown +7
9LACLAC 306360:24Field goal +3
10BALBAL 3011435:31Field goal +3
11LACLAC 3011465:21Field goal +3
12BALBAL 3016806:36Touchdown +6
13LACLAC 30541:47Punt
14BALBAL 287723:21Touchdown +7
15LACLAC 455-80:53Punt
16BALBAL 97203:23Punt
17LACLAC 3712412:22Touchdown +7
18BALLAC 44300:46End of game

10 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 81 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson16/221772018.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Derrick Henry241405.806.9
Justice Hill45513.813.2
Lamar Jackson8151.91-3.0
Mark Andrews122.002.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Zay Flowers5862038%0.5
Mark Andrews5544124%7.0
Rashod Bateman2343114%3.0
Tylan Wallace111505%1.5
Justice Hill227010%-1.0
Charlie Kolar11605%0.3
Diontae Johnson01005%-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Malik Harrison760.000
Nate Wiggins600.002
Chris Board220.000
Ar'Darius Washington400.000
Tre'Davious White210.001
Trenton Simpson300.000
Marlon Humphrey210.001
Kyle Hamilton210.000
Kyle Van Noy111.000
Brandon Stephens111.000

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert21/36218004-1.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
J.K. Dobbins6406.701.8
Justin Herbert4297.312.0
Gus Edwards9111.21-1.2
Hassan Haskins133.00-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ladd McConkey6683017%9.0
Will Dissly4447011%2.7
Josh Palmer3838022%1.6
Jalen Reagor2420011%-2.2
J.K. Dobbins3519014%-2.0
Tucker Fisk11703%0.3
Derius Davis22406%-1.0
Gus Edwards01003%-0.8
Quentin Johnston050014%-3.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Daiyan Henley360.000
Nick Niemann440.000
Derwin James241.000
Tarheeb Still330.000
Poona Ford320.000
Khalil Mack310.000
Elijah Molden220.001
Joey Bosa210.000
Troy Dye210.000
Teair Tart200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -3
Closing total
51
BAL moneyline
-166
LAC moneyline
+140

Ravens closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 51; the game landed 53 — over by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
BAL 8 days · LAC 8 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Jim Harbaugh