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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 12 · Mon, Nov 25, 2024 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 12
It turned at Q2 0:32, 1st and 10, on Rashod Bateman — 16.0 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Baltimore Ravens 30–23. Biggest swing: Q2 0:32, Ravens +16.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:32 · 1st and 10
Rashod Bateman
Ravens
(:32) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 7-R.Bateman for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-7-K.Fulton, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
16.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Chargers at 3 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Ravens at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.33 expected points per snap, against Chargers at +0.01 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.32 expected points per carry, against Chargers at +0.02 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
(:32) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 7-R.Bateman for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-7-K.Fulton, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Rashod Bateman's 40-yard touchdown catch with 0:32 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Rashod Bateman40-yd TD catch40-yard touchdown catchfrom Lamar JacksonLead never changed again+714–10Mark Andrews6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Lamar Jackson · two-point no good+623–1610 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ravenscategory by categoryChargers
Ravens ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 59 snaps at a 41% dropback rate against Chargers’s 60 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 4, Chargers 2.
Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's blitz rate sent, 45.8%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 6 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
LAC's early-down pass rate, 70.5%, is past their previous high of 67.3% in week 7 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
LAC's sack or hit rate turned over: 23.6% in week 11 against 8.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points. · −0.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Ravens-15.1 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.3 vs their -7.7 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 58 snaps
Chargers1.1 ptsright on their number · +2.7 vs their -1.6 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 86%
Tendencies room →Ravens35.0%inside their normal wobble · −12.1 vs their 47.1%, and they swing ±13.2 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 40 early downs
Chargers70.5%leaned — passed early · +15.2 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+1.31× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 62%
Tendencies room →Ravens8.3%leaned — dropped back clean · −17.1 vs their 25.4%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−1.47× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Chargers25.0%right on their number · −5.7 vs their 30.7%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Ravens60.0%inside their normal wobble · +20.0 vs their 40.0%, and they swing ±27.1 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Chargers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 17.9%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 52%
Tendencies room →Ravens36.4%leaned — sent pressure · +13.6 vs their 22.7%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+1.18× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Chargers45.8%off script — sent pressure · +21.0 vs their 24.8%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+2.06× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 32%
Tendencies room →Ravens15.9%right on their number · −0.7 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Chargers8.3%inside their normal wobble · −5.8 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
LAC's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 45.8%, 21.0 points above their season mean of 24.8% and 2.1 times their own 10.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LAC
21/36, 218 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-1.8 expected points added · -8.0% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
16/22, 177 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
8.1 expected points added · +10.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Justice Hill banked 9.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 22.6 | +2.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/22, 177 yd, 2 TD · 8 car, 15 yd, 1 TD |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 17.6 | −3.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/36, 218 yd · 4 car, 29 yd, 1 TD |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Featured Receiver | 15.6 | +4.7 | 42% | 67% | 24% | 13% | 1 car, 2 yd · 5/5, 44 yd, 1 TD |
| Ladd McConkeyWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.3 | +4.1 | 86% | 98% | 17% | 18% | 6/6, 83 yd |
| Justice HillRB | 14.2 | +9.1 | 40% | 67% | 10% | 0% | 4 car, 55 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 7 yd |
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 14.0 | +1.6 | 60% | 33% | 0% | — | 24 car, 140 yd |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.3 | +5.2 | 57% | 92% | 14% | 35% | 2/3, 43 yd, 1 TD |
| Zay FlowersWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.2 | −6.3 | 77% | 96% | 38% | 38% | 5/8, 62 yd |
| J.K. DobbinsRB · Receiving Back | 8.9 | −2.0 | 30% | 30% | 14% | 0% | 6 car, 40 yd · 3/5, 19 yd |
| Will DisslyTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.7 | +1.6 | 75% | 77% | 11% | 7% | 4/4, 47 yd |
| Gus EdwardsRB | 7.1 | −1.1 | 23% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 9 car, 11 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Josh PalmerWR · Featured Receiver | 6.8 | −10.0 | 83% | 84% | 22% | 55% | 3/8, 38 yd |
| Jalen ReagorWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −2.3 | 30% | 36% | 11% | 9% | 2/4, 20 yd |
| Tylan WallaceWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | +0.8 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Derius DavisWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tucker FiskTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.2 | 26% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Charlie KolarTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −0.1 | 49% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Hassan HaskinsRB | 0.3 | −0.2 | 45% | 52% | 0% | — | 1 car, 3 yd |
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Patrick RicardRB | 0.0 | — | 54% | 17% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Scott MatlockRB | 0.0 | — | 22% | 14% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Quentin JohnstonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −9.9 | 65% | 68% | 14% | 16% | 0/5, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:32) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 7-R.Bateman for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-7-K.Fulton, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q2 0:32 · Ravens · 1st & 10 at LAC 40 · gained 40 · +4.48 EP · +14.8% win probability
163 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 176 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 93 yards from the BAL 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Ravens0
Chargers6Ravens0Chargers7Ravens0Chargers10Ravens6Chargers10Ravens7Chargers10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Ravens13Chargers10Ravens14Chargers10Ravens14Chargers13How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Ravens17Chargers13How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Ravens17Chargers16How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Ravens23Chargers16Ravens29Chargers16Ravens30Chargers16Ravens30Chargers22Ravens30Chargers23Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Ravens at Chargers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 16/22 | 177 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +8.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 24 | 140 | 5.8 | 0 | +6.9 |
| Justice Hill | 4 | 55 | 13.8 | 1 | +3.2 |
| Lamar Jackson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 5 | 8 | 62 | 0 | 38% | +0.5 |
| Mark Andrews | 5 | 5 | 44 | 1 | 24% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Harrison | 7 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Wiggins | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Chris Board |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 21/36 | 218 | 0 | 0 | 4 | −1.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_12_BAL_LAC
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 51; the game landed 53 — over by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
| 8 |
| 15 |
| 1.9 |
| 1 |
| −3.0 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +2.0 |
| +7.0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2 | 3 | 43 | 1 | 14% | +3.0 |
| Tylan Wallace | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 5% | +1.5 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 10% | −1.0 |
| Charlie Kolar | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5% | +0.3 |
| Diontae Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.5 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Ar'Darius Washington | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'Davious White | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Trenton Simpson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Van Noy | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Stephens | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 0 | +1.8 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 1 | +2.0 |
| Gus Edwards | 9 | 11 | 1.2 | 1 | −1.2 |
| Hassan Haskins | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 6 | 6 | 83 | 0 | 17% | +9.0 |
| Will Dissly | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 | 11% | +2.7 |
| Josh Palmer | 3 | 8 | 38 | 0 | 22% | +1.6 |
| Jalen Reagor | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 11% | −2.2 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 14% | −2.0 |
| Tucker Fisk | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| Derius Davis | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6% | −1.0 |
| Gus Edwards | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Quentin Johnston | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14% | −3.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daiyan Henley | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Niemann | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derwin James | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tarheeb Still | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Poona Ford | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Mack | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Molden | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Joey Bosa | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Dye | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Teair Tart | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
