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2024 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 24, 2024 · FedExField

Dallas CowboysWinner

34

Washington Commanders

26

WAS -10.5 upsetO 45 ✓

Dallas Cowboys 34–26. Biggest swing: Q4 0:33, WAS +43% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3WAS ↑DAL ↓
Q4 · 0:33DAL 27 — WAS 26WAS ball · 1st & 10DAL 96%

(:33) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:33WAS +43% win prob(:33) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 0:21DAL +29% win prob3-A.Seibert extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
  3. Q4 · 3:02WAS +24% win prob3-A.Seibert kicks 61 yards from WAS 35 to DAL 4. 9-K.Turpin MUFFS catch, and recovers at DAL 1. 9-K.Turpin for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 8:11DAL +18% win prob(8:11) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 87-J.Bates to WAS 43 for 13 yards (6-Do.Wilson). FUMBLES (6-Do.Wilson), RECOVERED by DAL-50-E.Kendricks at WAS 44. ** Injury Update: WAS-63-T.Biadasz has returned to the game.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:04WAS Field goal

    (9:04) 3-A.Seibert 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: DAL 0 — WAS 3
  2. Q2 · 0:07DAL Field goal

    (:07) 17-B.Aubrey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: DAL 3 — WAS 3
  3. Q3 · 9:59WAS Touchdown

    (9:59) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: DAL 3 — WAS 9
  4. Q3 · 4:45DAL Touchdown

    (4:45) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 1-J.Tolbert for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-C.Ferrell]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 10 — WAS 9
  5. Q4 · 8:14DAL Field goal

    (8:14) 17-B.Aubrey 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. Penalty on DAL-67-B.Hoffman, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on WAS-92-D.Armstrong, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

    Score after this play: DAL 13 — WAS 9
  6. Q4 · 5:21DAL Touchdown

    (5:21) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass deep middle to 86-L.Schoonmaker for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 20 — WAS 9
  7. Q4 · 3:06WAS Touchdown

    (3:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: DAL 20 — WAS 17
  8. Q4 · 3:02DAL Touchdown

    3-A.Seibert kicks 61 yards from WAS 35 to DAL 4. 9-K.Turpin MUFFS catch, and recovers at DAL 1. 9-K.Turpin for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 27 — WAS 17
  9. Q4 · 1:44WAS Field goal

    (1:44) 3-A.Seibert 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: DAL 27 — WAS 20
  10. Q4 · 0:33WAS Touchdown

    (:33) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: DAL 27 — WAS 26
  11. Q4 · 0:21DAL Touchdown

    3-A.Seibert kicks onside 8 yards from WAS 35 to WAS 43. 30-J.Thomas for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 34 — WAS 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCowboysCommanders
Offensive plays6167
Total yards332414 (edge)
Yards per play5.46.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.06-0.03 (edge)
Success rate46% (edge)40%
Dropback rate56%64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.25 (edge)-0.20
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.430.27 (edge)
Third downs2/114/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)37 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1521 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)4
Turnovers1 (edge)3

Commanders outgained Cowboys 414–332 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

25/38, 275 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-6.1 expected points added · +6.8% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Cooper RushQB

24/32, 247 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.5 expected points added · +3.6% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Rico DowdleRB

19 att, 86 yds, 0 TD

-4.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

7 att, 74 yds, 1 TD

9.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

5/6 for 102 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 6.1 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Noah BrownWR

6/10 for 71 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · -1.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DALDAL 358433:35Missed field goal
2WASDAL 407172:24Field goal +3
3DALDAL 3211445:22Missed field goal
4WASWAS 327362:54Missed field goal
5DALDAL 41160:14Fumble
6WASDAL 47430:45Punt
7DALDAL 68213:51Punt
8WASWAS 426172:41Punt
9DALDAL 7491:55Punt
10WASDAL 393111:18Interception
11DAL50422:28Punt
12WASWAS 168291:48Punt
13DALDAL 143500:42Field goal +3
14WAS—100:03End of half
15WASWAS 4012705:07Touchdown +6
16DALDAL 2010565:13Touchdown +7
17WASWAS 30530:52Punt
18DALDAL 14481:56Punt
19WASWAS 45431:33Punt
20DALDAL 137202:36Punt
21WASWAS 5461:26Punt
22DAL506253:06Field goal +3
23WASWAS 302130:08Fumble
24DALWAS 446492:47Touchdown +7
25WASWAS 3111712:14Touchdown +8
26DAL—200:13Defensive touchdown +7
27WASWAS 307431:09Field goal +3
28DALWAS 495-11:07Punt
29WASWAS 142860:12Touchdown +6
30DAL—200:07Defensive touchdown +7
31WASWAS 36360:14Interception

11 of 31 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 86 scrimmage yards over 2 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Cooper Rush24/322472018.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Rico Dowdle19864.50-4.9
Ezekiel Elliott362.00-1.6
Cooper Rush410.30-3.9
CeeDee Lamb111.00-0.5
Trey Lance1-3-3.00-1.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
CeeDee Lamb101267038%2.0
Luke Schoonmaker3455113%5.0
Jalen Brooks134109%-0.3
Brevyn Spann-Ford222406%1.3
Jalen Tolbert2422113%0.7
Rico Dowdle331209%0.2
Hunter Luepke111003%0.3
Jonathan Mingo12806%-0.4
Kavontae Turpin11803%0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Josh Butler1021.003
Eric Kendricks460.000
Micah Parsons442.000
Daron Bland330.000
Jourdan Lewis330.001
Donovan Wilson220.000
Juanyeh Thomas210.000
Mazi Smith120.000
DeMarvion Overshown121.000
Malik Hooker120.000

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jayden Daniels25/38275224-6.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jayden Daniels77410.619.4
Austin Ekeler9222.40-2.5
Jeremy McNichols3227.301.1
Dyami Brown11414.000.8
Brian Robinson5132.60-1.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Terry McLaurin56102118%6.1
Noah Brown61071029%-1.2
Zach Ertz6838124%0.2
Dyami Brown222206%1.7
John Bates111303%-4.2
Brian Robinson121106%-5.2
Luke McCaffrey11803%0.8
Olamide Zaccheaus11803%0.6
Austin Ekeler23209%-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Quan Martin250.000
Frankie Luvu430.003
Benjamin St-Juste510.000
Mike Sainristil240.001
Bobby Wagner330.000
Sheldon Day140.000
Noah Igbinoghene220.000
Jer'Zhan Newton130.000
Daron Payne131.000
Jeremy Chinn210.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
WAS -10.5
Closing total
45
DAL moneyline
+455
WAS moneyline
-625

Commanders closed -10.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45; the game landed 60 — over by 15.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
55°F, wind 5 mph
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
DAL 6 days · WAS 10 days
Coaches
Mike McCarthy vs Dan Quinn

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.