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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:47 AM ET · 16 to play
Dallas Cowboys 34 at Washington Commanders 26. Final.
Commanders -10.5 upset
The verdict · 2024 Week 12
Dallas Cowboys 34, Commanders 26 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:33, 1st and 10, on Terry McLaurin — 42.8 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:33 · 1st and 10
Terry McLaurin
Commanders
(:33) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 45 ✓
Commanders closed -10.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Dallas Cowboys 34–26. Biggest swing: Q4 0:33, Commanders +42.8% win probability on one snap.
42.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetCowboysQ4 3:023-A.Seibert kicks 61 yards from WAS 35 to DAL 4. 9-K.Turpin MUFFS catch, and recovers at DAL 1. 9-K.Turpin for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
24.1pts
Unnamed on the sheetCowboysQ4 0:213-A.Seibert extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
28.6pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — +0.27 expected points per carry, against Cowboys at -0.43 expected points per carry.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — 1 giveaway, against Commanders at 3 giveaways.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Cowboys at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 3 chunk plays.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Cowboys180 of 190 plays carry both curves
(:33) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +42.8 for CommandersExpected points +6.93 for CommandersModel and market agree here.play 182
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:33WAS +43% win prob(:33) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:21DAL +29% win prob3-A.Seibert extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
4th · 3:02WAS +24% win prob3-A.Seibert kicks 61 yards from WAS 35 to DAL 4. 9-K.Turpin MUFFS catch, and recovers at DAL 1. 9-K.Turpin for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:11DAL +18% win prob(8:11) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 87-J.Bates to WAS 43 for 13 yards (6-Do.Wilson). FUMBLES (6-Do.Wilson), RECOVERED by DAL-50-E.Kendricks at WAS 44. ** Injury Update: WAS-63-T.Biadasz has returned to the game.
4th · 0:21WAS +16% win prob3-A.Seibert kicks onside 8 yards from WAS 35 to WAS 43. 30-J.Thomas for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 4:45WAS +14% win prob(4:45) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 1-J.Tolbert for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-C.Ferrell].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jalen Tolbert's 6-yard touchdown catch with 4:45 left in the 3rd put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:04Austin Seibert·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.Ott+30–3
2nd0:07Brandon Aubrey·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+33–3
3rd9:59Jayden Daniels·17-yd TD run17-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+63–9
3rd4:45Jalen Tolbert·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Cooper Rushfrom Cooper RushLead never changed again+710–9
4th8:14Brandon Aubrey·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+313–9
4th5:21Luke Schoonmaker·22-yd TD catch22-yard touchdown catchfrom Cooper Rushfrom Cooper Rush+720–9
4th0:21Juanyeh Thomas·43-yd return TD43-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+734–26
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryCommanders
Cowboys3–6Commanders
332Total yards414
5.4Yards per play6.2
46%Success rate40%
18%Third-down rate33%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays7
15First downs21
1Sacks taken4
1Turnovers3
The read
Commanders ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cowboys, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.06Cowboys: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.03Commanders: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.25Cowboys: +0.25 expected points added per play
−0.20Commanders: −0.20 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.43Cowboys: −0.43 expected points added per play
+0.27Commanders: +0.27 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 61 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Commanders’s 67 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 5, Commanders 3.
NoteCommanders outgained Cowboys 414-332 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 2.6% in week 11 against 23.3% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · +7.1 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Commanders5.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.6 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−1.40× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteWAS's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -9.3 pts, 9.1 points below their season mean of -0.3 pts and 1.7 times their own 5.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Daniels pass+41% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:33) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:33 · Commanders · 1st & 10 at WAS 14 · gained 86 · +6.93 EP · +41.0% win probability
178 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 190 plays across 31 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 184. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 31 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 86 yards from the WAS 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
190 of 190 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
190
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
44%
Yards
746
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.0454%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.0976%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.0343%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.2233%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9-0.0133%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
190 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
190 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
No good10 plays, from the Cowboys 35 to the Commanders 13
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Cowboys0Commanders3
Field goal7 plays, from the Cowboys 40 to the Cowboys 23
No good11 plays, from the Cowboys 32 to the Commanders 21
No good7 plays, from the Commanders 32 to the Cowboys 32
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost1 play
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Cowboys 6 to the Cowboys 33
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 42 to the Cowboys 46
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 7 to the Cowboys 16
How the play was built
A screen, no huddle, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, from outside the pocket, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Cowboys 39 to the Cowboys 28
Punt4 plays, from midfield to the Commanders 48
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 16 to the Commanders 46
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Cowboys3Commanders3
Field goal4 plays, from the Cowboys 14 to the Commanders 28
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Cowboys3Commanders9
Touchdown13 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the Cowboys 17
Cowboys9Commanders9
Cowboys10Commanders9
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Commanders 3
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Commanders 33
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 14 to the Cowboys 22
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 45 to the Commanders 49
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter66 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 24 to the Cowboys 47
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 5 to the Commanders 11
Cowboys13Commanders9
Field goal7 plays, from midfield to the Commanders 30
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays
Cowboys19Commanders9
Cowboys20Commanders9
Touchdown7 plays, from the Commanders 44 to the Commanders 19
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Cowboys20Commanders15
Cowboys20Commanders17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Commanders 31 to the Cowboys 4
Cowboys26Commanders17
Cowboys27Commanders17
Touchdown2 plays
Cowboys27Commanders20
Field goal8 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Cowboys 33
Punt8 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Cowboys27Commanders26
Touchdown2 plays
Cowboys33Commanders26
Touchdown1 play
Cowboys34Commanders26
Intercepted3 plays, from the Commanders 36 to the Commanders 42
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Commanders -10.5
Closing total
45
Cowboys moneyline
+455
Commanders moneyline
-625
Commanders closed -10.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45; the game landed 60 — over by 15.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 53°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the west; overcast.
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
Cowboys 6 days · Commanders 10 days
Coaches
Mike McCarthy vs Dan Quinn
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 5:10
DAL +10% win prob
(5:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle intended for 8-B.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 99-C.Golston at DAL 32. 99-C.Golston pushed ob at 50 for 18 yards (8-B.Robinson; 5-J.Daniels).
4th · 5:21WAS +10% win prob(5:21) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass deep middle to 86-L.Schoonmaker for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
