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Denver Broncos 29, Raiders 19 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 11:44, 2nd and 14, on Brandon Jones — 17.6 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 11:44 · 2nd and 14
Brandon Jones
Broncos
(11:44) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass deep right intended for 16-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 22-B.Jones [15-N.Bonitto] at DEN 45. 22-B.Jones to LV 18 for 37 yards (11-T.Tucker).
Dome
Broncos closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Denver Broncos 29–19. Biggest swing: Q3 11:44, Broncos +17.6% win probability on one snap.
17.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Divine DeabloRaidersQ2 8:33(8:33) (Punt formation) 6-A.Cole pass short right to 5-D.Deablo to DEN 30 for 34 yards (19-M.Mims).
12.4pts
Daniel CarlsonBroncosQ2 0:02(:02) 2-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
9.2pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — no giveaways, against Raiders at 2 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.19 expected points per dropback, against Raiders at -0.25 expected points per dropback.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — +0.04 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.21 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Broncos won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Raiders at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Broncos183 of 198 plays carry both curves
(11:44) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass deep right intended for 16-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 22-B.Jones [15-N.Bonitto] at DEN 45. 22-B.Jones to LV 18 for 37 yards (11-T.Tucker).
Swing −17.6 for RaidersExpected points −6.27 for RaidersThe model had Raiders 21 points higher than the market did.play 100
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 11:44DEN +18% win prob(11:44) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass deep right intended for 16-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 22-B.Jones [15-N.Bonitto] at DEN 45. 22-B.Jones to LV 18 for 37 yards (11-T.Tucker).
2nd · 8:33LV +12% win prob(8:33) (Punt formation) 6-A.Cole pass short right to 5-D.Deablo to DEN 30 for 34 yards (19-M.Mims).
2nd · 0:02DEN +9% win prob(:02) 2-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
3rd · 10:53LV +9% win prob(10:53) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 10:03DEN +9% win prob(10:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix sacked at LV 35 for -11 yards (9-T.Wilson).
2nd · 0:34LV +8% win prob(:34) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass deep right to 16-J.Meyers to DEN 37 for 18 yards (6-P.Locke).
2nd · 13:40
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Courtland Sutton's 18-yard touchdown catch with 10:53 left in the 3rd put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st2:51Wil Lutz·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Fraboni+33–0
2nd9:26Wil Lutz·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Fraboni+36–7
2nd3:52Daniel Carlson·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+36–10
2nd0:58Wil Lutz·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Fraboni+39–10
2nd0:02Daniel Carlson·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+39–13
3rd10:53Courtland Sutton·18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo NixLead never changed again+716–13
4th12:10Wil Lutz·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Fraboni+319–13
4th9:04Daniel Carlson·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+319–16
4th5:34Courtland Sutton·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix+726–16
4th3:41Daniel Carlson·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+326–19
4th2:00Wil Lutz·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Fraboni+329–19
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryRaiders
Broncos6–3Raiders
325Total yards369
5.0Yards per play5.1
40%Success rate40%
40%Third-down rate29%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays5
18First downs19
1Sacks taken5
0Turnovers2
The read
Broncos ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Broncos: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.21Raiders: −0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.19Broncos: +0.19 expected points added per play
−0.25Raiders: −0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.29Broncos: −0.29 expected points added per play
−0.07Raiders: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 65 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Raiders’s 73 at 81%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 4, Raiders 5.
NoteRaiders outgained Broncos 369-325 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LV's early-down pass rate, 78.9%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 12 — 4.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 76.1% in week 11.
57 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LV's sack or hit rate, 4.5%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 12 — 0.2 points clear of the next team along.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points.
DEN's play-action rate turned over: 40.0% in week 11 against 18.2% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.8 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 59 dropbacks
Raiders4.5%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.0 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteLV's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 78.9%, 16.1 points above their season mean of 62.8% and 1.5 times their own 10.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
69Mike McGlincheyT · Every snap100%68 snaps
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%68 snaps
77Quinn MeinerzG · Every snap100%68 snaps
74Ben PowersG · Every snap100%68 snaps
60Luke WattenbergC · Every snap100%68 snaps
10Bo NixQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Full-time85%58 snaps
17Devaughn VeleWR · Heavy rotation65%44 snaps
33Javonte WilliamsRB · Heavy rotation56%38 snaps
84Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Heavy rotation56%38 snaps
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Minshew pass−18% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(11:44) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass deep right intended for 16-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 22-B.Jones [15-N.Bonitto] at DEN 45. 22-B.Jones to LV 18 for 37 yards (11-T.Tucker).
Q3 11:44 · Raiders · 2nd & 14 at LV 34 · gained nothing · -6.27 EP · −18.4% win probability
181 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 198 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 193. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 70 yards from the DEN 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
198 of 198 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
198
EPA per play
-0.00
Success rate
45%
Yards
694
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.1286%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.1168%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.6567%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.4020%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Broncos1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Broncos0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Raiders0 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
198 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
198 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Broncos 42
Punt10 plays, from the Broncos 11 to the Broncos 49
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 8 to the Raiders 13
Broncos3Raiders0
Field goal11 plays, from the Broncos 33 to the Raiders 11
The period ended6 plays, from the Broncos 40 to the Broncos 22
2nd quarter51 plays
Broncos3Raiders6
Broncos3Raiders7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Broncos 19 to the Broncos 6
Broncos6Raiders7
Field goal9 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Raiders 24
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a trick play, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Offense on the fieldOne free safety, one inside linebacker, one long snapper, two middle linebackers, two outside linebackers, one punter, one strong safety, one tight end and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageBlown coverageMan or zoneZonePressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Broncos6Raiders10
Field goal13 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Broncos 11
Broncos9Raiders10
Field goal12 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Raiders 32
Broncos9Raiders13
Field goal12 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Broncos 16
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 32
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Raiders 22 to the Raiders 38
Broncos15Raiders13
Broncos16Raiders13
Touchdown3 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Broncos 43
Punt10 plays, from the Broncos 1 to the Broncos 46
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 11 to the Raiders 17
The period ended5 plays, from the Broncos 48 to the Raiders 34
4th quarter69 plays
Broncos19Raiders13
Field goal7 plays, from the Raiders 31 to the Raiders 21
Broncos19Raiders16
Field goal10 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Broncos 35
Broncos25Raiders16
Broncos26Raiders16
Touchdown11 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Raiders 2
Broncos26Raiders19
Field goal12 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Broncos 4
Punt5 plays
Fumble lost3 plays
Broncos29Raiders19
Field goal5 plays, from the Raiders 17 to the Raiders 15
The period ended16 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Broncos 1
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
