2024 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 24, 2024 · Allegiant Stadium

Denver BroncosWinner

Las Vegas Raiders

DEN -6.5 ✓O 41.5 ✓DomeBroncos closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Denver Broncos 29–19. Biggest swing: Q3 11:44, DEN +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 11:44DEN 9 — LV 13LV ball · 2nd & 14DEN 50%

(11:44) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass deep right intended for 16-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 22-B.Jones [15-N.Bonitto] at DEN 45. 22-B.Jones to LV 18 for 37 yards (11-T.Tucker).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 11:44DEN +18% win prob(11:44) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass deep right intended for 16-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 22-B.Jones [15-N.Bonitto] at DEN 45. 22-B.Jones to LV 18 for 37 yards (11-T.Tucker).
Q2 · 8:33LV +12% win prob(8:33) (Punt formation) 6-A.Cole pass short right to 5-D.Deablo to DEN 30 for 34 yards (19-M.Mims).
Q2 · 0:02DEN +9% win prob(:02) 2-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q3 · 10:53LV +9% win prob(10:53) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 2:51DEN Field goal
(2:51) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: DEN 3 — LV 0
Q2 · 13:40LV Touchdown
(13:40) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 8-A.Abdullah for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 3 — LV 7
Q2 · 9:26DEN Field goal
(9:26) 3-W.Lutz 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: DEN 6 — LV 7
Q2 · 3:52LV Field goal
(3:52) 2-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: DEN 6 — LV 10
Q2 · 0:58DEN Field goal
(:58) 3-W.Lutz 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: DEN 9 — LV 10
Q2 · 0:02LV Field goal
(:02) 2-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: DEN 9 — LV 13
Q3 · 10:53DEN Touchdown
(10:53) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 16 — LV 13
Q4 · 12:10DEN Field goal
(12:10) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: DEN 19 — LV 13
Q4 · 9:04LV Field goal
(9:04) 2-D.Carlson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: DEN 19 — LV 16
Q4 · 5:34DEN Touchdown
(5:34) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 26 — LV 16
Q4 · 3:41LV Field goal
(3:41) 2-D.Carlson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: DEN 26 — LV 19
Q4 · 2:00DEN Field goal
(2:00) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: DEN 29 — LV 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Raiders
Offensive plays	65	73
Total yards	325	369 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0	5.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.04 (edge)	-0.21
Success rate	40% (edge)	40%
Dropback rate	68%	81%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.19 (edge)	-0.25
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.29	-0.07 (edge)
Third downs	6/15 (edge)	4/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	18	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	5
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Raiders outgained Broncos 369–325 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

25/42, 273 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.3 expected points added · -7.3% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Gardner MinshewQB

25/42, 230 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-12.7 expected points added · -5.6% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Jaleel McLaughlinRB

7 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Sincere McCormickRB

5 att, 33 yds, 0 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Jakobi MeyersWR

10/15 for 121 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 0.7 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

8/10 for 97 yds, 2 TD

26% of team targets · 12.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 30	8	31	2:51	Punt
2	DEN	DEN 11	9	48	3:00	Punt
3	LV	LV 8	4	6	1:15	Punt
4	DEN	DEN 33	8	62	5:07	Field goal +3
5	LV	DEN 40	9	40	4:11	Touchdown +7
6	DEN	DEN 30	9	35	4:15	Field goal +3
7	LV	LV 30	12	64	5:33	Field goal +3
8	DEN	DEN 30	9	17	2:55	Field goal +3
9	LV	LV 30	8	48	0:53	Field goal +3
10	DEN	DEN 30	5	2	1:38	Punt
11	LV	LV 22	4	12	1:49	Interception
12	DEN	LV 18	3	18	0:44	Touchdown +7
13	LV	LV 30	7	27	2:57	Punt
14	DEN	DEN 1	10	45	4:50	Punt
15	LV	LV 11	4	6	1:35	Punt
16	DEN	DEN 48	10	26	4:22	Field goal +3
17	LV	LV 30	8	23	3:06	Field goal +3
18	DEN	DEN 30	9	70	3:29	Touchdown +7
19	LV	LV 30	12	66	1:52	Field goal +3
20	DEN	DEN 30	5	0	0:26	Punt
21	LV	LV 24	3	-10	0:51	Fumble
22	DEN	LV 17	4	2	0:25	Field goal +3
23	LV	LV 30	12	56	1:56	End of game

12 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 70 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bo Nix	25/42	273	2	0	1	8.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jaleel McLaughlin	7	44	6.3	0.8
Audric Estime	3	15	5.0	0.2
Bo Nix	1	5	5.0	0.2
Michael Burton	1	3	3.0	-0.1
Marvin Mims	2	-2	-1.0	-1.0
Javonte Williams	8	-2	-0.3	-6.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Courtland Sutton	8	10	97	2	26%	12.0
Devaughn Vele	6	9	80	0	23%	4.6
Marvin Mims	3	5	44	0	13%	1.1
Troy Franklin	2	4	31	0	10%	1.0
Michael Burton	1	1	8	0	3%	0.6
Javonte Williams	2	4	6	0	10%	-1.8
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	2	3	4	0	8%	-2.9
Adam Trautman	1	2	3	0	5%	-0.9
Jaleel McLaughlin	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
P.J. Locke	5	1	0.0	0	0
Cody Barton	5	1	0.5	0	1
Ja'Quan McMillian	5	1	0.0	0	0
Brandon Jones	5	0	0.0	1	2
Patrick Surtain	3	1	0.0	0	1
Riley Moss	4	0	0.0	0	1
Malcolm Roach	1	2	1.0	0	0
Justin Strnad	2	1	0.0	0	1
Jonathon Cooper	1	2	0.5	0	0
Jonah Elliss	2	1	1.0	0	0

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Gardner Minshew	25/42	230	1	1	3	-12.7
Desmond Ridder	5/10	64	0	0	2	-5.3
A.J. Cole	1/1	34	0	0	0	4.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Sincere McCormick	5	33	6.6	0.2
Ameer Abdullah	8	28	3.5	0.1
Gardner Minshew	2	5	2.5	-1.2
Desmond Ridder	1	3	3.0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jakobi Meyers	10	15	121	0	33%	0.7
Tre Tucker	7	8	82	0	17%	6.2
Brock Bowers	4	10	38	0	22%	-6.7
Ameer Abdullah	5	6	37	1	13%	0.9
Divine Deablo	1	1	34	0	2%	4.3
Michael Mayer	2	2	11	0	4%	0.2
D.J. Turner	2	4	5	0	9%	-3.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Decamerion Richardson	5	3	0.0	1
Isaiah Pola-Mao	3	3	0.0	1
Jack Jones	6	0	0.0	1
Divine Deablo	3	2	0.0	0
Robert Spillane	3	2	0.0	0
Maxx Crosby	4	1	0.0	0
Tyree Wilson	3	1	1.0	0
Darnay Holmes	1	3	0.0	1
Trevon Moehrig	3	0	0.0	1
John Jenkins	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -6.5
Closing total: 41.5
DEN moneyline: -278
LV moneyline: +225

Broncos closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 48 — over by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: DEN 7 days · LV 7 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Antonio Pierce

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.