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2024 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 24, 2024 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
LionsDetroit24
BY 18final margin
ColtsIndianapolis6
Detroit Lions 24 at Indianapolis Colts 6. Final.
Lions -7 ✓U 50.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 12
Detroit Lions 24, Colts 6 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 5:32, 3rd and 3, on Jared Goff — 7.9 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:32 · 3rd and 3
Jared Goff
Colts
(5:32) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at IND 46 for -9 yards (99-D.Buckner).
Dome
Lions closed -7 and covered, winning by 18.
Detroit Lions 24–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:32, Colts +7.9% win probability on one snap.
7.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Anthony RichardsonColtsQ1 11:06(11:06) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson left guard to DET 12 for 17 yards (31-K.Joseph; 46-J.Campbell).
7.0pts
Alec PierceColtsQ2 9:49(9:49) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce to DET 11 for 39 yards (29-K.Vildor).
7.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
Lions won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Colts at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Lions won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Lions won this one — 9 of 15 on third down, against Colts at 3 of 12 on third down.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Lions won this one — +0.15 expected points per snap, against Colts at -0.14 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Lions157 of 161 plays carry both curves
(5:32) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at IND 46 for -9 yards (99-D.Buckner).
Swing +7.9 for ColtsExpected points +3.07 for ColtsThe model had Colts 29 points higher than the market did.play 22
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:32DET +8% win prob(5:32) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at IND 46 for -9 yards (99-D.Buckner).
2nd · 9:49IND +7% win prob(9:49) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce to DET 11 for 39 yards (29-K.Vildor).
1st · 11:06IND +7% win prob(11:06) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson left guard to DET 12 for 17 yards (31-K.Joseph; 46-J.Campbell).
1st · 0:38IND +6% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 17-T.Patrick pushed ob at IND 33 for 27 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
2nd · 14:18IND +6% win prob(14:18) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle to IND 14 for 17 yards (20-N.Cross; 33-S.Womack).
3rd · 9:57DET +5% win prob(9:57) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 5-D.Montgomery up the middle to IND 16 for -2 yards (54-D.Odeyingbo, 41-G.Stuard).
1st · 7:22
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jahmyr Gibbs's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 12:11 left in the 2nd put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:56Matt Gay·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+30–3
2nd12:11Jahmyr Gibbs·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–3
2nd8:19Matt Gay·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+37–6
4th6:25Jake Bates·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.Hatten+324–6
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryColts
Lions5–3Colts
391Total yards270
5.5Yards per play5.6
52%Success rate33%
60%Third-down rate25%
3Red-zone touchdowns0
6Explosive plays8
25First downs10
3Sacks taken0
0Turnovers0
The read
Lions ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.15Lions: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.14Colts: −0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.21Lions: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.15Colts: −0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.08Lions: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.12Colts: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 71 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Colts’s 48 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Lions 4, Colts 2.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DET's sack or hit rate turned over: 6.5% in week 11 against 20.0% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 12 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.4 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Colts22.5%
leaned — got home · +10.1 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+1.34× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteIND's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 16.7%, 13.3 points below their season mean of 29.9% and 1.5 times their own 9.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Skipper reported−11% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(9:57) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 5-D.Montgomery up the middle to IND 16 for -2 yards (54-D.Odeyingbo, 41-G.Stuard).
Q3 9:57 · Lions · 4th & 1 at IND 14 · lost 2 · -4.64 EP · −10.9% win probability
155 snaps placed · 6 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 79 yards from the DET 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
45%
Yards
658
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.3561%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25-0.1372%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.0050%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.1453%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.5140%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Lions0Colts3
Field goal13 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Lions 4
Punt9 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Colts 37
Punt8 plays, from the Colts 10 to the Colts 21
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.5 seconds
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Lions6Colts3
Lions7Colts3
Touchdown8 plays, from the Colts 33 to the Colts 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Lions7Colts6
Field goal10 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Lions 11
Lions13Colts6
Lions14Colts6
Touchdown11 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Colts 6
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 30 to midfield
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 10 to the Lions 28
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Colts 14
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 16 to the Colts 36
Lions20Colts6
Lions21Colts6
Touchdown11 plays, from the Lions 21 to the Colts 5
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 49
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 13 to the Lions 31
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 45 to the Lions 47
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 13 to the Colts 20
Lions24Colts6
Field goal8 plays, from the Lions 46 to the Colts 38
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Lions 26
The period ended9 plays, from the Lions 24 to the Colts 32
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
