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2024 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 24, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

30

Carolina Panthers

27

KC -11 no coverO 43 ✓

Kansas City Chiefs 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:48, CAR +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CAR ↑KC ↓
Q4 · 0:48KC 27 — CAR 27KC ball · 1st & 10KC 77%

(:48) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end pushed ob at CAR 22 for 33 yards (20-J.Fuller). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scramble

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:48CAR +13% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end pushed ob at CAR 22 for 33 yards (20-J.Fuller). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end to CAR 22 for 33 yards (20-J.Fuller). FUMBLES (20-J.Fuller), ball out of bounds at CAR 22.
  2. Q4 · 0:02CAR +10% win prob(:02) 40-S.Shrader 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
  3. Q4 · 1:46CAR +8% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 30-C.Hubbard rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
  4. Q1 · 11:42CAR +7% win prob(11:42) 70-B.Christensen reported in as eligible. 9-B.Young pass deep right to 17-X.Legette ran ob at KC 13 for 34 yards (6-B.Cook). Penalty on KC-23-D.Tranquill, Illegal Contact, declined. Penalty on KC-95-C.Jones, Defensive Offside, declined.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 13:44KC Touchdown

    (13:44) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 83-N.Gray for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 7 — CAR 0
  2. Q1 · 9:28CAR Field goal

    (9:28) 4-E.Pineiro 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: KC 7 — CAR 3
  3. Q1 · 2:42KC Field goal

    (2:42) 40-S.Shrader 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: KC 10 — CAR 3
  4. Q2 · 14:46CAR Field goal

    (14:46) 4-E.Pineiro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: KC 10 — CAR 6
  5. Q2 · 7:29KC Field goal

    (7:29) 40-S.Shrader 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: KC 13 — CAR 6
  6. Q2 · 0:50KC Touchdown

    (:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 83-N.Gray for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 20 — CAR 6
  7. Q2 · 0:04CAR Field goal

    (:04) 4-E.Pineiro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: KC 20 — CAR 9
  8. Q3 · 6:30CAR Touchdown

    (6:30) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 83-D.Moore for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 20 — CAR 16
  9. Q3 · 2:49KC Touchdown

    (2:49) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 8-D.Hopkins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 27 — CAR 16
  10. Q4 · 12:41CAR Field goal

    (12:41) 4-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: KC 27 — CAR 19
  11. Q4 · 1:49CAR Touchdown

    (1:49) 70-B.Christensen reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: KC 27 — CAR 27
  12. Q4 · 0:02KC Field goal

    (:02) 40-S.Shrader 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: KC 30 — CAR 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChiefsPanthers
Offensive plays6859
Total yards391 (edge)336
Yards per play5.8 (edge)5.7
Expected points added / play0.28 (edge)0.19
Success rate56% (edge)47%
Dropback rate69%68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.28 (edge)0.18
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.29 (edge)0.21
Third downs8/13 (edge)5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps23 (edge)20
Sacks taken52 (edge)
Turnovers00

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs 0.19.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

27/37, 269 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

9.2 expected points added · +7.7% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

21/35, 263 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

6.3 expected points added · +3.4% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Kareem HuntRB

16 att, 68 yds, 0 TD

4.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

5 att, 60 yds, 0 TD

4.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

David MooreWR

6/10 for 81 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Noah GrayTE

4/4 for 66 yds, 2 TD

11% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1KCCAR 415411:25Touchdown +7
2CARCAR 309634:11Field goal +3
3KCKC 2512686:45Field goal +3
4CARCAR 309572:57Field goal +3
5KCKC 3015677:18Field goal +3
6CARCAR 30502:10Punt
7KCKC 815924:30Touchdown +7
8CARCAR 309590:44Field goal +3
9CARCAR 3017758:34Touchdown +7
10KCKC 2512513:44Touchdown +7
11CARCAR 3012455:05Field goal +3
12KCKC 2611245:43Punt
13CARCAR 145142:28Punt
14KCKC 254-91:05Punt
15CARKC 496231:35Touchdown +8
16KCKC 308571:46Field goal +3

12 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 92 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Patrick Mahomes27/372693059.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kareem Hunt16684.304.0
Patrick Mahomes56012.004.0
Mecole Hardman2157.500.9
Samaje Perine11313.000.8
Xavier Worthy155.000.2
Carson Steele144.000.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Noah Gray4466211%8.2
Travis Kelce6862022%2.0
Xavier Worthy4646017%3.2
DeAndre Hopkins5635117%2.5
Kareem Hunt3419011%-0.8
Justin Watson121506%0.1
Samaje Perine221106%0.2
Carson Steele12906%0.3
JuJu Smith-Schuster12606%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nazeeh Johnson530.001
Bryan Cook340.000
Justin Reid510.000
Drue Tranquill220.000
Michael Danna401.000
Nick Bolton130.500
Trent McDuffie310.501
Chamarri Conner210.000
Mike Pennel120.000
Jaden Hicks210.000

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bryce Young21/352631026.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chuba Hubbard16583.614.6
Bryce Young3206.701.0
Jonathon Brooks273.50-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
David Moore61081130%7.8
Adam Thielen3457012%4.7
Xavier Legette4656018%1.7
Ja'Tavion Sanders334909%2.2
Deven Thompkins331309%-0.6
Tommy Tremble12506%-1.4
Chuba Hubbard152015%-2.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Josey Jewell631.000
A'Shawn Robinson530.000
Xavier Woods710.001
Jaycee Horn601.000
D.J. Wonnum231.000
Jordan Fuller500.000
Michael Jackson400.001
Sam Franklin220.000
LaBryan Ray120.000
Trevin Wallace120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -11
Closing total
43
KC moneyline
-700
CAR moneyline
+500

Chiefs closed -11, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 43; the game landed 57 — over by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
61°F, wind 5 mph
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
KC 7 days · CAR 14 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Dave Canales