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2024 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 24, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
ChiefsKansas City30
BY 3final margin
PanthersCarolina27
Kansas City Chiefs 30 at Carolina Panthers 27. Final.
Chiefs -11 no coverO 43 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 12
Kansas City Chiefs 30, Panthers 27 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:48, 1st and 10, on Patrick Mahomes — 12.8 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:48 · 1st and 10
Patrick Mahomes
Chiefs
(:48) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end pushed ob at CAR 22 for 33 yards (20-J.Fuller). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end to CAR 22 for 33 yards (20-J.Fuller). FUMBLES (20-J.Fuller), ball out of bounds at CAR 22.
Chiefs closed -11, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Kansas City Chiefs 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:48, Chiefs +12.8% win probability on one snap.
12.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chuba HubbardPanthersQ4 1:46TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 30-C.Hubbard rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
8.5pts
Spencer ShraderChiefsQ4 0:02(:02) 40-S.Shrader 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
10.2pts
What separated them
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 8 of 13 on third down, against Panthers at 5 of 13 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.28 expected points per snap, against Panthers at +0.19 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Panthers at 6 chunk plays.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 40 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Chiefs171 of 183 plays carry both curves
(:48) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end pushed ob at CAR 22 for 33 yards (20-J.Fuller). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scramble
Swing −12.8 for PanthersExpected points −2.33 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 16 points higher than the market did.play 176
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:48CAR +13% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end pushed ob at CAR 22 for 33 yards (20-J.Fuller). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end to CAR 22 for 33 yards (20-J.Fuller). FUMBLES (20-J.Fuller), ball out of bounds at CAR 22.
4th · 0:02CAR +10% win prob(:02) 40-S.Shrader 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
4th · 1:46CAR +8% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 30-C.Hubbard rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
1st · 11:42CAR +7% win prob(11:42) 70-B.Christensen reported in as eligible. 9-B.Young pass deep right to 17-X.Legette ran ob at KC 13 for 34 yards (6-B.Cook). Penalty on KC-23-D.Tranquill, Illegal Contact, declined. Penalty on KC-95-C.Jones, Defensive Offside, declined.
1st · 15:00CAR +7% win prob4-E.Pineiro kicks 62 yards from CAR 35 to KC 3. 34-S.Perine to CAR 41 for 56 yards (31-C.Farley).
1st · 13:44CAR +6% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Spencer Shrader's 31-yard field goal with 0:02 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st13:44Noah Gray·35-yd TD catch35-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+77–0
1st9:28Eddy Pineiro·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+37–3
1st2:42Spencer Shrader·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+310–3
2nd14:46Eddy Pineiro·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+310–6
2nd7:29Spencer Shrader·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+313–6
2nd0:50Noah Gray·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+720–6
2nd0:04Eddy Pineiro·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+320–9
4th0:02Spencer Shrader·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.WinchesterLead never changed again+330–27
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryPanthers
Chiefs6–1Panthers
391Total yards336
5.8Yards per play5.7
56%Success rate47%
62%Third-down rate38%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays6
23First downs20
5Sacks taken2
0Turnovers0
The read
Chiefs ahead 6–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Panthers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.28Chiefs: +0.28 expected points added per play
+0.19Panthers: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.28Chiefs: +0.28 expected points added per play
+0.18Panthers: +0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.29Chiefs: +0.29 expected points added per play
+0.21Panthers: +0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 68 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Panthers’s 59 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 6, Panthers 6.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs 0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's blitz rate sent, 12.8%, is past their previous low of 25.0% in week 7 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
2.3 times their own weekly swing below their number.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · −2.8 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Panthers14.9%
leaned — got home · +4.9 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (+1.28× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
NoteCAR's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 12.8%, 16.8 points below their season mean of 29.5% and 2.3 times their own 7.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
74Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%74 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%74 snaps
64Wanya MorrisT · Every snap100%74 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%74 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%74 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%74 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time89%66 snaps
84Justin WatsonWR · Heavy rotation65%48 snaps
1Xavier WorthyWR · Heavy rotation64%47 snaps
83Noah GrayTE · Heavy rotation59%44 snaps
9JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Heavy rotation55%41 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Spencer Shrader+20% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:02) 40-S.Shrader 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Q4 0:02 · Chiefs · 3rd & 1 at CAR 13 · gained nothing · +0.16 EP · +19.9% win probability
169 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 178. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 92 yards from the KC 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
+0.18
Success rate
52%
Yards
727
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.2675%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR32+0.3759%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.1167%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.3545%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Chiefs6Panthers0
Chiefs7Panthers0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Panthers 41 to the Panthers 35
Chiefs7Panthers3
Field goal10 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Chiefs 7
Chiefs10Panthers3
Field goal13 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Panthers 7
The period ended6 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Chiefs 25
2nd quarter57 plays
Chiefs10Panthers6
Field goal4 plays
Chiefs13Panthers6
Field goal19 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Panthers 5
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 33
Chiefs19Panthers6
Chiefs20Panthers6
Touchdown17 plays, from the Chiefs 8 to the Panthers 11
Chiefs20Panthers9
Field goal11 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Chiefs 11
3rd quarter41 plays
Chiefs20Panthers15
Chiefs20Panthers16
Touchdown20 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Chiefs 1
Chiefs26Panthers16
Chiefs27Panthers16
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Panthers 3
The period ended8 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 47
4th quarter50 plays
Chiefs27Panthers19
Field goal6 plays, from the Chiefs 36 to the Chiefs 15
Punt12 plays, from the Chiefs 26 to the Panthers 36
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 14 to the Panthers 29
The period ended6 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 29
Chiefs27Panthers25
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldSix linemen, two linebackers and three backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Chiefs27Panthers27
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 49 to the Chiefs 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Chiefs30Panthers27
Field goal11 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Panthers 13
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Chiefscategory by categoryPanthers
Chiefs6
Panthers0
