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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Vikings183 of 197 plays carry both curves
(3:09) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 87-T.Hockenson to CHI 9 for 29 yards (31-K.Byard, 36-J.Owens) [93-B.Cowart].
Swing −33.3 for BearsExpected points −2.53 for BearsModel and market agree here.play 193
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 3:09CHI +33% win prob(3:09) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 87-T.Hockenson to CHI 9 for 29 yards (31-K.Byard, 36-J.Owens) [93-B.Cowart].
Overtime · 7:47CHI +30% win prob(7:47) 19-T.Taylor punts 54 yards to MIN 22, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-B.Powell to MIN 21 for -1 yards (30-T.Moore).
4th · 0:03CHI +28% win prob(:03) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Overtime · 9:16MIN +17% win prob(9:16) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI 19 for -12 yards (58-J.Greenard).
4th · 0:21CHI +16% win prob(:21) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 2-D.Moore to MIN 30 for 27 yards (1-S.Griffin).
Overtime · 5:43CHI +16% win prob(5:43) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson to MIN 49 for 20 yards (49-T.Edmunds).
Overtime · 6:23
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
John Parker Romo's 29-yard field goal with 2:13 left in overtime put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:03Cairo Santos·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.Daly+327–27
Overtime2:13John Parker Romo·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap J.McQuaideLead never changed again+330–27
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categoryBears
Vikings5–2Bears
452Total yards400
7.0Yards per play5.4
46%Success rate43%
46%Third-down rate35%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
10Explosive plays8
20First downs22
3Sacks taken3
1Turnovers0
The read
Vikings ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bears, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Vikings: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.06Bears: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.33Vikings: +0.33 expected points added per play
+0.13Bears: +0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.29Vikings: −0.29 expected points added per play
−0.17Bears: −0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 65 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Bears’s 74 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 7, Bears 3.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs 0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CHI's play-action rate turned over: 25.0% in week 11 against 10.5% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
MIN's sack or hit rate turned over: 23.7% in week 11 against 8.8% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.5 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−1.23× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Bears23.7%
leaned — got home · +6.4 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+1.12× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteCHI's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 10.5%, 7.8 points below their season mean of 18.3% and 1.4 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 6 inactive
64Blake BrandelG · Every snap100%71 snaps
75Brian O'NeillT · Every snap100%71 snaps
66Dalton RisnerG · Every snap100%71 snaps
56Garrett BradburyC · Every snap100%71 snaps
18Justin JeffersonWR · Every snap99%70 snaps
14Sam DarnoldQB · Full-time97%69 snaps
3Jordan AddisonWR · Full-time94%67 snaps
76David QuessenberryT · Full-time87%62 snaps
33Aaron JonesRB · Heavy rotation79%56 snaps
87T.J. HockensonTE · Heavy rotation68%48 snaps
86Johnny MundtTE · Rotational46%33 snaps
83Jalen NailorWR · Rotational39%28 snaps
30C.J. HamFB · Rotational27%19 snaps
11Trent SherfieldWR · Situational15%11 snaps
27Cam AkersRB · Situational15%11 snaps
74Cam RobinsonT · Situational13%9 snaps
34Nick MuseTE · Situational8%6 snaps
4Brandon PowellWR · Situational8%6 snaps
12Nick MullensQB · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Dan FeeneyCDwight McGlothernCBLevi Drake RodriguezDEBrett RypienQBWalter RouseTJosh OliverTE
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
58Darnell WrightT · Every snap100%76 snaps
65Coleman SheltonC · Every snap100%76 snaps
79Matt PryorT · Every snap100%76 snaps
76Teven JenkinsT · Every snap100%76 snaps
85Cole KmetTE · Every snap100%76 snaps
70Braxton JonesT · Every snap100%76 snaps
18Caleb WilliamsQB · Every snap100%76 snaps
2DJ MooreWR · Every snap99%75 snaps
13Keenan AllenWR · Full-time89%68 snaps
15Rome OdunzeWR · Full-time87%66 snaps
4D'Andre SwiftRB · Heavy rotation55%42 snaps
23Roschon JohnsonRB · Rotational38%29 snaps
84Marcedes LewisTE · Situational21%16 snaps
11DeAndre CarterWR · Situational5%4 snaps
14Gerald EverettTE · Situational4%3 snaps
68Doug KramerC · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Ryan BatesCAmeer SpeedCBDominique RobinsonDEElijah HicksFSKiran AmegadjieTTyler ScottWR
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
S.Darnold pass+33% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(3:09) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 87-T.Hockenson to CHI 9 for 29 yards (31-K.Byard, 36-J.Owens) [93-B.Cowart].
OT 3:09 · Vikings · 2nd & 8 at CHI 38 · gained 29 · +2.53 EP · +33.3% win probability
181 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 197 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 191. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 79 yards from the CHI 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
197 of 197 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
197
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
46%
Yards
852
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54+0.0285%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.0776%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13-0.0915%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.2017%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.5258%
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Bears0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
197 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
197 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 35
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Vikings 26 to the Bears 1
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 2 to the Bears 32
Punt4 plays
Vikings0Bears6
Vikings0Bears7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bears 21 to the Vikings 1
The period ended5 plays, from the Vikings 33 to the Bears 47
2nd quarter45 plays
Vikings6Bears7
Vikings7Bears7
Touchdown2 plays
No good11 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Vikings 30
Vikings13Bears7
Vikings14Bears7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Vikings 47 to the Bears 5
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 38
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 27 to the Vikings 36
Vikings14Bears10
Field goal14 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Vikings 31
3rd quarter41 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Vikings17Bears10
Field goal6 plays, from the Vikings 23 to the Bears 8
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Vikings 27
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 36 to the Bears 43
Punt9 plays, from the Vikings 15 to the Bears 49
Vikings23Bears10
Vikings24Bears10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bears 15 to the Bears 2
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 34
4th quarter50 plays
The period ended7 plays, from the Vikings 35 to the Bears 36
Vikings24Bears16
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bears 36 to the Vikings 10
Vikings27Bears16
Field goal16 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Bears 7
Vikings27Bears22
Vikings27Bears24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 40 to the Vikings 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Vikings27Bears27
Field goal3 plays, from the Bears 43 to the Vikings 30
Overtime21 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 31
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
How the play was built
A quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Vikings30Bears27
Field goal13 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Bears 9
The period ended1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
