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2024 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 24, 2024 · Soldier Field

Minnesota VikingsWinner

30

Chicago Bears

27

MIN -3 pushO 39.5 ✓

Minnesota Vikings 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 3:09, CHI +33% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4CHI ↑MIN ↓
OT · 3:09MIN 27 — CHI 27MIN ball · 2nd & 8MIN 51%

(3:09) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 87-T.Hockenson to CHI 9 for 29 yards (31-K.Byard, 36-J.Owens) [93-B.Cowart].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. OT · 3:09CHI +33% win prob(3:09) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 87-T.Hockenson to CHI 9 for 29 yards (31-K.Byard, 36-J.Owens) [93-B.Cowart].
  2. OT · 7:47CHI +30% win prob(7:47) 19-T.Taylor punts 54 yards to MIN 22, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-B.Powell to MIN 21 for -1 yards (30-T.Moore).
  3. Q4 · 0:03CHI +28% win prob(:03) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
  4. OT · 9:16MIN +17% win prob(9:16) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI 19 for -12 yards (58-J.Greenard).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 0:56CHI Touchdown

    (:56) 68-D.Kramer reported in as eligible. 23-R.Johnson right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI-85-C.Kmet was injured during the play. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 0 — CHI 7
  2. Q2 · 15:00MIN Touchdown

    (15:00) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 3-J.Addison for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 7 — CHI 7
  3. Q2 · 6:34MIN Touchdown

    (6:34) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 83-J.Nailor for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 14 — CHI 7
  4. Q2 · 0:03CHI Field goal

    (:03) 8-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: MIN 14 — CHI 10
  5. Q3 · 12:45MIN Field goal

    (12:45) 96-J.Romo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: MIN 17 — CHI 10
  6. Q3 · 1:26MIN Touchdown

    (1:26) 33-A.Jones right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 24 — CHI 10
  7. Q4 · 7:26CHI Touchdown

    (7:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 2-D.Moore for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: MIN 24 — CHI 16
  8. Q4 · 2:00MIN Field goal

    (2:00) 96-J.Romo 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: MIN 27 — CHI 16
  9. Q4 · 0:29CHI Touchdown

    (:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 13-K.Allen for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: MIN 27 — CHI 24
  10. Q4 · 0:03CHI Field goal

    (:03) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: MIN 27 — CHI 27
  11. OT · 2:13MIN Field goal

    (2:13) 96-J.Romo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: MIN 30 — CHI 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricVikingsBears
Offensive plays6574
Total yards452 (edge)400
Yards per play7.0 (edge)5.4
Expected points added / play0.07 (edge)0.06
Success rate46% (edge)43%
Dropback rate58%77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.33 (edge)0.13
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.29-0.17 (edge)
Third downs6/13 (edge)6/17
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)10 (edge)8
First downs gained on snaps2022 (edge)
Sacks taken33
Turnovers10 (edge)

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs 0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

32/47, 340 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

4.5 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Sam DarnoldQB

22/34, 330 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.2 expected points added · +6.8% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Aaron JonesRB

22 att, 106 yds, 1 TD

-6.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

6 att, 33 yds, 0 TD

3.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Jordan AddisonWR

8/9 for 162 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 14.2 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

T.J. HockensonTE

7/9 for 114 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CHICHI 305151:45Punt
2MINMIN 267723:28Fumble
3CHICHI 29254:11Punt
4MINMIN 23400:26Punt
5CHICHI 218794:17Touchdown +7
6MINMIN 335620:59Touchdown +7
7CHICHI 3011405:28Missed field goal
8MINMIN 477182:57Touchdown +7
9CHICHI 30511:39Punt
10MINMIN 27491:41Punt
11CHICHI 2010543:09Field goal +3
12MINMIN 236552:20Field goal +3
13CHICHI 306432:33Turnover on downs
14MINMIN 28401:09Punt
15CHICHI 36470:58Punt
16MINMIN 158263:51Punt
17MINCHI 156152:47Touchdown +7
18CHICHI 30541:22Punt
19MINMIN 355392:53Turnover on downs
20CHICHI 3611644:45Touchdown +6
21MINMIN 3012735:26Field goal +3
22CHIMIN 4010421:34Touchdown +8
23MINCHI 434270:22Field goal +3
24CHICHI 305-12:21Punt
25MINMIN 2110835:29Field goal +3

11 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 83 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Sam Darnold22/3433020310.2
Nick Mullens1/1140002.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Aaron Jones221064.81-6.9
Cam Akers3196.300.5
Sam Darnold2-1-0.50-1.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jordan Addison89162128%14.2
T.J. Hockenson79114028%3.7
Justin Jefferson2527016%-1.4
Aaron Jones3423013%1.4
Johnny Mundt11703%0.8
Cam Akers11603%-0.2
Jalen Nailor12516%0.5
C.J. Ham01003%-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Harrison Smith920.000
Byron Murphy430.000
Andrew Van Ginkel241.001
Blake Cashman240.000
Jonathan Greenard512.000
Josh Metellus240.000
Camryn Bynum320.001
Stephon Gilmore230.001
Jonathan Bullard320.000
Shaquill Griffin310.000

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Caleb Williams32/473402034.5
D.J. Moore0/10000-0.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Caleb Williams6335.503.7
D'Andre Swift13302.30-5.2
D.J. Moore11313.001.2
Roschon Johnson221.011.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
D.J. Moore77106115%9.7
Keenan Allen91586132%-3.2
Cole Kmet71064021%0.2
Rome Odunze51039021%-2.0
D'Andre Swift343509%0.9
Roschon Johnson111002%2.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kevin Byard820.000
T.J. Edwards360.000
Jonathan Owens350.000
Tremaine Edmunds340.001
DeMarcus Walker231.000
Terell Smith320.000
Kyler Gordon220.002
Gervon Dexter220.001
Tarvarius Moore300.000
Montez Sweat111.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIN -3
Closing total
39.5
MIN moneyline
-175
CHI moneyline
+145

Vikings closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 57 — over by 17.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
47°F, wind 5 mph
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
MIN 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches
Kevin O'Connell vs Matt Eberflus

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.