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2024 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 24, 2024 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
PatriotsNew England15
BY 19final margin
DolphinsMiami34
New England Patriots 15 at Miami Dolphins 34. Final.
Dolphins -7.5 ✓O 46 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 12
Miami Dolphins 34, Patriots 15 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 14:16, 3rd and 7, on Jonnu Smith — 5.2 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 14:16 · 3rd and 7
Jonnu Smith
Dolphins
(14:16) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 9-J.Smith for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dolphins closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 19.
Miami Dolphins 34–15 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 14:16, Dolphins +5.2% win probability on one snap.
5.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Drake MayeDolphinsQ1 4:05(4:05) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 81-A.Hooper (6-A.Walker). PENALTY on NE-75-D.Jacobs, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 20 - No Play. Penalty on NE-81-A.Hooper, Offensive Offside, declined.
4.9pts
Joey SlyeDolphinsQ1 3:13(3:13) 13-J.Slye 45 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
4.7pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — -0.07 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.62 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Dolphins won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Patriots at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.31 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.24 expected points per dropback.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Dolphins won this one — 1 giveaway, against Patriots at 3 giveaways.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Patriots172 of 182 plays carry both curves
(14:16) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 9-J.Smith for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +5.2 for DolphinsExpected points +2.81 for DolphinsThe model had Patriots 13 points higher than the market did.play 37
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 14:16MIA +5% win prob(14:16) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 9-J.Smith for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 4:05NE +5% win prob(4:05) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 81-A.Hooper (6-A.Walker). PENALTY on NE-75-D.Jacobs, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 20 - No Play. Penalty on NE-81-A.Hooper, Offensive Offside, declined.
1st · 3:13NE +5% win prob(3:13) 13-J.Slye 45 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
1st · 6:43MIA +4% win prob(6:43) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 81-A.Hooper to MIA 39 for 11 yards (20-J.Brooks; 6-A.Walker).
1st · 2:28MIA +4% win prob(2:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 17-J.Waddle pushed ob at NE 29 for 24 yards (31-J.Jones).
1st · 8:01MIA +3% win prob(8:01) (Shotgun) 4-A.Gibson right guard to NE 36 for 14 yards (21-J.Poyer).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jonnu Smith's 7-yard touchdown catch with 14:16 left in the 2nd put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd14:16Jonnu Smith·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua TagovailoaLead never changed again+70–7
2nd7:55Devon Achane·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+70–14
2nd1:55Devon Achane·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+70–21
2nd0:05Jason Sanders·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap T.Addington+30–24
3rd1:44Jaylen Waddle·23-yd TD catch23-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+70–31
4th3:38Jason Sanders·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap T.Addington+315–34
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Patriotscategory by categoryDolphins
Patriots0–9Dolphins
272Total yards375
4.3Yards per play6.0
40%Success rate46%
21%Third-down rate36%
0Red-zone touchdowns3
5Explosive plays6
13First downs21
4Sacks taken2
3Turnovers1
The read
Dolphins ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.62 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.20Patriots: −0.20 expected points added per play
+0.00Dolphins: +0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.24Patriots: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.31Dolphins: +0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Patriots: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.62Dolphins: −0.62 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 63 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 63 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 1, Dolphins 5.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
MIA's pass rate over expected, +10.0 pts, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 12 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +5.2 pts in week 11.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
NE's play-action rate turned over: 20.0% in week 11 against 8.5% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
NE's blitz rate sent turned over: 63.0% in week 11 against 16.7% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 3.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 24 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Dolphins14.9%
right on their number · +2.3 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
NoteNE's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 8.5%, 8.5 points below their season mean of 17.0% and 1.7 times their own 5.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Joey Slye−9% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(3:13) 13-J.Slye 45 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Q1 3:13 · Patriots · 4th & 13 at MIA 27 · gained nothing · -3.91 EP · −8.6% win probability
170 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 177. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 80 yards from the MIA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
43%
Yards
644
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.4872%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.1779%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.4163%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.4567%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.3850%
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.0340%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 39
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 17 to the Dolphins 36
No good15 plays, from the Patriots 13 to the Dolphins 20
The period ended7 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Patriots 12
2nd quarter57 plays
Patriots0Dolphins6
Patriots0Dolphins7
Touchdown4 plays
Punt5 plays
Patriots0Dolphins13
Patriots0Dolphins14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Dolphins 34 to the Patriots 9
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 31
Patriots0Dolphins20
Patriots0Dolphins21
Touchdown13 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Patriots 11
The period ended7 plays
Patriots0Dolphins24
Field goal9 plays, from the Dolphins 41 to the Patriots 3
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 36
Punt13 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Dolphins 41
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 7 to the Dolphins 45
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Patriots 16 to the Dolphins 49
Patriots0Dolphins30
Patriots0Dolphins31
Touchdown3 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 23
The period ended6 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Dolphins 49
4th quarter52 plays
Patriots6Dolphins31
Patriots7Dolphins31
Touchdown5 plays, from the Dolphins 33 to the Dolphins 26
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 34
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 38
Patriots13Dolphins31
Touchdown2 plays, from the Patriots 37 to the Patriots 34
Patriots15Dolphins31
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 45
Intercepted4 plays, from the Patriots 37 to the Dolphins 46
Patriots15Dolphins34
Field goal8 plays, from the Dolphins 46 to the Patriots 33
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Dolphins 46
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
