2024 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 24, 2024 · Hard Rock Stadium

New England Patriots

Miami DolphinsWinner

MIA -7.5 ✓O 46 ✓Dolphins closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 19.

Miami Dolphins 34–15 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 14:16, MIA +5% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 14:16NE 0 — MIA 6MIA ball · 3rd & 7MIA 81%

(14:16) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 9-J.Smith for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 14:16MIA +5% win prob(14:16) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 9-J.Smith for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 4:05NE +5% win prob(4:05) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 81-A.Hooper (6-A.Walker). PENALTY on NE-75-D.Jacobs, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 20 - No Play. Penalty on NE-81-A.Hooper, Offensive Offside, declined.
Q1 · 3:13NE +5% win prob(3:13) 13-J.Slye 45 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Q1 · 6:43MIA +4% win prob(6:43) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 81-A.Hooper to MIA 39 for 11 yards (20-J.Brooks; 6-A.Walker).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 14:16MIA Touchdown
(14:16) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 9-J.Smith for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 0 — MIA 7
Q2 · 7:55MIA Touchdown
(7:55) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 28-D.Achane for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 0 — MIA 14
Q2 · 1:55MIA Touchdown
(1:55) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 28-D.Achane for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 0 — MIA 21
Q2 · 0:05MIA Field goal
(:05) 7-J.Sanders 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: NE 0 — MIA 24
Q3 · 1:44MIA Touchdown
(1:44) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 0 — MIA 31
Q4 · 13:54NE Touchdown
(13:54) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 81-A.Hooper for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 7 — MIA 31
Q4 · 10:22NE Touchdown
(10:22) (Shotgun) 25-J.Wright up the middle to NE 37 for -3 yards (15-M.Mapu). FUMBLES (15-M.Mapu), RECOVERED by NE-0-C.Gonzalez at NE 37. 0-C.Gonzalez for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: NE 13 — MIA 31
Q4 · 10:10NE Two-point
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-D.Maye pass to 38-R.Stevenson is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. Caught by 9-K.Boutte. Lateraled to 38-R.Stevenson
Score after this play: NE 15 — MIA 31
Q4 · 3:38MIA Field goal
(3:38) 7-J.Sanders 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: NE 15 — MIA 34

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Dolphins
Offensive plays	63	63
Total yards	272	375 (edge)
Yards per play	4.3	6.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.20	0.00 (edge)
Success rate	40%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	75%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24	0.31 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07 (edge)	-0.62
Third downs	3/14	4/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

29/40, 317 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

13.1 expected points added · +3.4% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Drake MayeQB

22/37, 222 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-11.3 expected points added · -5.9% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Devon AchaneRB

10 att, 32 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Antonio GibsonRB

6 att, 31 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

8/9 for 144 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 11.3 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Jonnu SmithTE

9/11 for 87 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 30	5	14	2:38	Punt
2	MIA	MIA 17	5	19	1:49	Punt
3	NE	NE 13	12	80	7:26	Missed field goal
4	MIA	MIA 35	9	60	3:57	Touchdown +7
5	NE	NE 30	5	-15	1:33	Punt
6	MIA	MIA 34	10	66	4:47	Touchdown +7
7	NE	NE 30	5	11	1:47	Punt
8	MIA	MIA 20	11	80	4:13	Touchdown +7
9	NE	NE 30	5	-5	0:22	Fumble
10	MIA	MIA 41	7	56	1:26	Field goal +3
11	NE	NE 30	2	0	0:02	End of half
12	MIA	MIA 30	5	4	2:04	Punt
13	NE	NE 25	11	42	4:52	Punt
14	MIA	MIA 7	7	28	3:46	Punt
15	NE	NE 16	4	21	1:59	Fumble
16	MIA	NE 25	3	25	0:42	Touchdown +7
17	NE	NE 30	10	70	2:54	Touchdown +7
18	MIA	MIA 30	5	4	1:03	Punt
19	NE	NE 20	7	10	1:39	Turnover on downs
20	MIA	NE 37	2	0	0:51	Defensive touchdown
21	MIA	MIA 30	7	12	3:51	Punt
22	NE	NE 37	4	17	1:06	Interception
23	MIA	MIA 46	6	21	1:40	Field goal +3
24	NE	NE 30	7	25	1:38	Turnover on downs
25	MIA	MIA 45	3	0	1:55	End of game

7 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 80 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a missed field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drake Maye	22/37	222	1	1	4	-11.3
Kendrick Bourne	0/1	0	0	0	0	-1.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Antonio Gibson	6	31	5.2	0.4
Drake Maye	5	26	5.2	1.4
Jamycal Hasty	1	15	15.0	1.1
Rhamondre Stevenson	8	13	1.6	-2.1
Demario Douglas	1	1	1.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Demario Douglas	5	7	62	0	19%	1.7
Austin Hooper	4	4	59	1	11%	7.9
Hunter Henry	5	8	44	0	22%	0.3
Kendrick Bourne	3	5	30	0	14%	-0.4
Antonio Gibson	1	2	14	0	5%	-3.1
Ja'Lynn Polk	1	2	7	0	5%	-0.8
Kayshon Boutte	1	4	6	0	11%	-3.0
Jamycal Hasty	2	2	0	0	5%	-1.8
Rhamondre Stevenson	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.0
Javon Baker	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jahlani Tavai	3	5	1
Kyle Dugger	4	2	1
Jonathan Jones	4	2	0
Marcus Jones	6	0	3
Anfernee Jennings	2	3	0
Jaylinn Hawkins	1	3	0
Christian Elliss	3	1	1
Keion White	2	2	0
Marte Mapu	1	2	2
Christian Gonzalez	1	1	1

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	29/40	317	4	0	2	13.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Devon Achane	10	32	3.2	-1.6
Jaylen Wright	7	28	4.0	-9.1
Raheem Mostert	2	5	2.5	-0.9
Malik Washington	1	2	2.0	-0.7
Jonnu Smith	1	0	0.0	-0.5
Tua Tagovailoa	3	-2	-0.7	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jaylen Waddle	8	9	144	1	23%	11.3
Jonnu Smith	9	11	87	1	28%	5.2
Tyreek Hill	5	6	48	0	15%	2.4
Devon Achane	3	4	24	2	10%	5.1
Julian Hill	1	2	8	0	5%	-0.5
Durham Smythe	1	1	8	0	3%	0.2
Malik Washington	1	2	1	0	5%	-1.3
Jaylen Wright	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8
Odell Beckham	0	3	0	0	8%	-3.8
Raheem Mostert	1	1	-3	0	3%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordyn Brooks	7	2	0.0	0	0
Jordan Poyer	7	0	0.0	0	1
Jevon Holland	5	1	0.0	0	0
Tyrel Dodson	1	3	0.0	1	1
Kader Kohou	2	2	0.0	0	0
Jalen Ramsey	3	1	1.0	0	1
Storm Duck	2	1	0.0	0	1
Chop Robinson	1	2	1.5	0	2
Zach Sieler	2	1	1.0	0	0
Benito Jones	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -7.5
Closing total: 46
NE moneyline: +285
MIA moneyline: -360

Dolphins closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 19.

Total closed 46; the game landed 49 — over by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 77°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Alan Eck
Rest: NE 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches: Jerod Mayo vs Mike McDaniel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.