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Philadelphia Eagles 37 at Los Angeles Rams 20. Final.
Eagles -3 ✓O 49 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 12
Philadelphia Eagles 37, Rams 20 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 12:38, 1st and 10, on Kyren Williams — 13.0 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:38 · 1st and 10
Kyren Williams
Eagles
(12:38) 23-K.Williams right tackle to PHI 16 for 1 yard (34-I.Rodgers). Philadelphia challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 23-K.Williams right tackle to PHI 16 for 1 yard (34-I.Rodgers). FUMBLES (34-I.Rodgers), RECOVERED by PHI-17-N.Dean at PHI 17.
Dome
Eagles closed -3 and covered, winning by 17.
Philadelphia Eagles 37–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:38, Eagles +13.0% win probability on one snap.
13.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.J. BrownEaglesQ2 8:51(8:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to LA 13 for 27 yards (3-K.Curl).
7.7pts
Saquon BarkleyEaglesQ3 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.1pts
What separated them
Third down
Eagles won this one — 9 of 15 on third down, against Rams at 0 of 8 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.31 expected points per carry, against Rams at -0.36 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.34 expected points per snap, against Rams at -0.02 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — no giveaways, against Rams at 1 giveaway.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Eagles167 of 178 plays carry both curves
(12:38) 23-K.Williams right tackle to PHI 16 for 1 yard (34-I.Rodgers). Philadelphia challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 23-K.Williams right tackle to PHI 16 for 1 yard (34-I.Rodg
Swing −13.0 for RamsExpected points −5.84 for RamsThe model had Rams 16 points higher than the market did.play 7
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:38PHI +13% win prob(12:38) 23-K.Williams right tackle to PHI 16 for 1 yard (34-I.Rodgers). Philadelphia challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 23-K.Williams right tackle to PHI 16 for 1 yard (34-I.Rodgers). FUMBLES (34-I.Rodgers), RECOVERED by PHI-17-N.Dean at PHI 17.
3rd · 15:00LA +11% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 8:51LA +8% win prob(8:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to LA 13 for 27 yards (3-K.Curl).
3rd · 7:05LA +7% win prob(7:05) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 26-S.Barkley pushed ob at LA 13 for 31 yards (3-K.Curl; 39-J.McCollough).
2nd · 1:32LA +7% win prob(1:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 11-A.Brown (37-Q.Lake). The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 11-A.Brown for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 10:55LA +6% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.J. Brown's 6-yard touchdown catch with 1:32 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:17Jake Elliott·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap R.Lovato+33–0
4th1:12Cooper Kupp·27-yd TD catch27-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford · two-point no good+637–20
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryRams
Eagles7–0Rams
483Total yards290
7.3Yards per play4.8
50%Success rate47%
60%Third-down rate0%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays6
22First downs22
1Sacks taken5
0Turnovers1
The read
Eagles ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.34Eagles: +0.34 expected points added per play
−0.02Rams: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.38Eagles: +0.38 expected points added per play
+0.12Rams: +0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.31Eagles: +0.31 expected points added per play
−0.36Rams: −0.36 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 66 snaps at a 39% dropback rate against Rams’s 60 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 7, Rams 5.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs -0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's sack or hit rate turned over: 7.5% in week 11 against 25.6% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 14 pts
leaned — got home · +12.2 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+1.55× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Rams7.7%
inside their normal wobble · −3.9 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
NotePHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.6%, 12.2 points above their season mean of 13.4% and 1.5 times their own 7.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 6 inactive
68Jordan MailataT · Every snap100%73 snaps
51Cam JurgensG · Every snap100%73 snaps
77Mekhi BectonT · Full-time97%71 snaps
69Landon DickersonG · Full-time97%71 snaps
1Jalen HurtsQB · Full-time97%71 snaps
65Lane JohnsonT · Full-time97%71 snaps
11A.J. BrownWR · Full-time89%65 snaps
88Dallas GoedertTE · Heavy rotation75%55 snaps
89Johnny WilsonWR · Heavy rotation70%51 snaps
26Saquon BarkleyRB · Heavy rotation68%50 snaps
83Jahan DotsonWR · Heavy rotation68%50 snaps
81Grant CalcaterraTE · Heavy rotation55%40 snaps
14Kenneth GainwellRB · Rotational32%23 snaps
47C.J. UzomahTE · Situational22%16 snaps
82Ainias SmithWR · Situational10%7 snaps
57Ben VanSumerenILB · Situational7%5 snaps
18Britain CoveyWR · Situational4%3 snaps
56Tyler SteenG · Situational3%2 snaps
74Fred JohnsonT · Situational3%2 snaps
75Jack DriscollT · Situational3%2 snaps
7Kenny PickettQB · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Nick GatesCEli RicksCBTrevor KeeganGTanner McKeeQBDarian KinnardTDeVonta SmithWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Williams right−14% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:38) 23-K.Williams right tackle to PHI 16 for 1 yard (34-I.Rodgers). Philadelphia challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 23-K.Williams right tackle to PHI 16 for 1 yard (34-I.Rodgers). FUMBLES (34-I.Rodgers), RECOVERED by PHI-17-N.Dean at PHI 17.
Q1 12:38 · Rams · 1st & 10 at PHI 17 · gained nothing · -5.84 EP · −14.2% win probability
165 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 91 yards from the PHI 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
49%
Yards
771
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57-0.0768%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.5343%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.1829%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+1.1720%
Rams1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Eagles 17
Eagles3Rams0
Field goal12 plays, from the Eagles 17 to the Rams 3
Eagles3Rams6
Eagles3Rams7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Eagles 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Eagles 34
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 37 to the Eagles 48
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 21 to the Rams 27
How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Eagles6Rams7
Field goal11 plays, from the Eagles 36 to the Rams 13
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 31
Eagles12Rams7
Eagles13Rams7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Eagles 38 to the Rams 6
The period ended6 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 35
The period ended7 plays, from the Eagles 37 to the Rams 48
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Eagles19Rams7
Eagles20Rams7
Touchdown3 plays
Eagles20Rams13
Eagles20Rams14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Eagles 2
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Eagles26Rams14
Eagles27Rams14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Rams 13
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
No good12 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Eagles 12
The period ended4 plays, from the Eagles 37 to the Eagles 42
4th quarter49 plays
Eagles30Rams14
Field goal11 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 7
Punt13 plays, from the Rams 32 to the Eagles 31
Eagles36Rams14
Eagles37Rams14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 9 to the Eagles 28
Eagles37Rams20
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 32 to the Eagles 27
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -3
Closing total
49
Eagles moneyline
-170
Rams moneyline
+142
Eagles closed -3 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 49; the game landed 57 — over by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Eagles 10 days · Rams 7 days
Coaches
Nick Sirianni vs Sean McVay
(10:55) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-D.Robinson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 11:43LA +6% win prob(11:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 17-P.Nacua. PENALTY on PHI-34-I.Rodgers, Defensive Pass Interference, 31 yards, enforced at PHI 34 - No Play.
2nd · 13:32PHI +6% win prob(13:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 36 for -12 yards (55-B.Fiske).
Eaglescategory by categoryRams
Eagles3
Rams0
