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2024 Week 12 · Thu, Nov 21, 2024 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Pittsburgh Steelers

19

Cleveland BrownsWinner

24

PIT -3.5 upsetO 36.5 ✓

Cleveland Browns 24–19. Biggest swing: Q4 7:10, PIT +26% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CLE ↑PIT ↓
Q4 · 7:10PIT 13 — CLE 18CLE ball · 2nd & 9CLE 75%

(7:10) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston sacked at CLE 20 for -5 yards (51-Ni.Herbig). FUMBLES (51-Ni.Herbig) [51-Ni.Herbig], touched at CLE 25, RECOVERED by PIT-25-D.Elliott at CLE 27.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 7:10PIT +26% win prob(7:10) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston sacked at CLE 20 for -5 yards (51-Ni.Herbig). FUMBLES (51-Ni.Herbig) [51-Ni.Herbig], touched at CLE 25, RECOVERED by PIT-25-D.Elliott at CLE 27.
  2. Q4 · 0:06PIT +24% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right [58-J.Hicks].
  3. Q4 · 2:36CLE +19% win prob(2:36) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short left to 3-J.Jeudy to PIT 33 for 5 yards (24-J.Porter).
  4. Q4 · 4:28PIT +17% win prob(4:28) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass deep left intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at PIT 22. 26-D.Jackson to PIT 24 for 2 yards (8-E.Moore).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 10:58PIT Field goal

    (10:58) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: PIT 3 — CLE 0
  2. Q2 · 4:03CLE Touchdown

    (4:03) 59-W.Reid and 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: PIT-6-P.Queen has returned to the game. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 3 — CLE 7
  3. Q2 · 0:43CLE Field goal

    (:43) 7-D.Hopkins 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    Score after this play: PIT 3 — CLE 10
  4. Q3 · 2:00PIT Field goal

    (2:00) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: PIT 6 — CLE 10
  5. Q4 · 12:23CLE Touchdown

    (12:23) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston scrambles right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: PIT 6 — CLE 18
  6. Q4 · 8:00PIT Touchdown

    (8:00) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 13 — CLE 18
  7. Q4 · 6:20PIT Touchdown

    (6:20) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 19-C.Austin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Tomlinson].

    Score after this play: PIT 19 — CLE 18
  8. Q4 · 1:00CLE Touchdown

    (1:00) (Shotgun) 24-N.Chubb up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: PIT 19 — CLE 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSteelersBrowns
Offensive plays6857
Total yards368 (edge)306
Yards per play5.4 (edge)5.4
Expected points added / play-0.040.01 (edge)
Success rate37%49% (edge)
Dropback rate51%54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.22 (edge)-0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.310.09 (edge)
Third downs7/16 (edge)1/10
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)9 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps1619 (edge)
Sacks taken41 (edge)
Turnovers1 (edge)3

Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Russell WilsonQB

21/28, 270 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

7.8 expected points added · +26.7% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Jameis WinstonQB

18/27, 219 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-0.8 expected points added · +2.5% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

20 att, 59 yds, 2 TD

2.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Jaylen WarrenRB

11 att, 45 yds, 1 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Jerry JeudyWR

6/6 for 85 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Calvin AustinWR

3/3 for 78 yds, 1 TD

12% of team targets · 8.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1PITPIT 2110445:48Missed field goal
2CLECLE 484111:37Punt
3PITPIT 197464:10Turnover on downs
4CLECLE 40481:24Punt
5PITPIT 1110646:08Field goal +3
6CLECLE 2014806:53Touchdown +7
7PITPIT 303-20:49Fumble
8CLEPIT 316202:31Field goal +3
9PITPIT 305110:40End of half
10CLECLE 304391:18Fumble
11PITPIT 256203:08Turnover on downs
12CLEPIT 45461:25Punt
13PITPIT 2013787:13Field goal +3
14CLECLE 3512674:40Touchdown +8
15PITPIT 319454:19Touchdown +7
16CLECLE 24310:52Fumble
17PITCLE 274270:50Touchdown +6
18CLECLE 336301:53Interception
19PITPIT 24461:00Punt
20CLEPIT 4510442:25Touchdown +6
21PITPIT 367290:57End of game

8 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 80 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Russell Wilson21/282701047.8
Justin Fields0/10000-1.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jaylen Warren11454.11-1.8
Najee Harris16412.60-5.1
Justin Fields3268.70-1.3
Russell Wilson3103.30-1.3
Cordarrelle Patterson1-2-2.000.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Calvin Austin3378112%8.5
Pat Freiermuth4459016%5.7
George Pickens4748028%2.5
Van Jefferson223908%2.6
Jaylen Warren3419016%-1.6
Darnell Washington3314012%0.2
Najee Harris221308%0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Patrick Queen250.001
DeShon Elliott420.001
Cameron Heyward150.002
Joey Porter510.000
Payton Wilson240.000
Nick Herbig321.000
Preston Smith130.000
T.J. Watt130.000
Donte Jackson300.011
Minkah Fitzpatrick200.000

Cleveland Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jameis Winston18/27219011-0.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Nick Chubb20593.022.1
Jerome Ford4194.800.2
Jameis Winston372.313.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jerry Jeudy6685022%8.2
Jordan Akins3438015%2.1
Blake Whiteheart112904%1.6
Cedric Tillman2428015%-7.3
Elijah Moore3521019%-2.6
David Njoku159019%-2.5
Jerome Ford11804%-0.5
Nick Chubb11104%-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Grant Delpit440.000
Juan Thornhill420.000
Martin Emerson600.000
Jordan Hicks241.000
Denzel Ward410.000
Mohamoud Diabate410.000
Myles Garrett323.000
Ronnie Hickman310.000
Maurice Hurst210.000
Rodney McLeod210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Closing total
36.5
PIT moneyline
-205
CLE moneyline
+170

Steelers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 36.5; the game landed 43 — over by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
36°F, wind 13 mph
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
PIT 4 days · CLE 4 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Kevin Stefanski

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.