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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 12 · Thu, Nov 21, 2024 · FirstEnergy Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 12
It turned at Q4 7:10, 2nd and 9, on Jameis Winston — 26.2 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
Cleveland Browns 24–19. Biggest swing: Q4 7:10, Steelers +26.2% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:10 · 2nd and 9
Jameis Winston
Steelers
(7:10) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston sacked at CLE 20 for -5 yards (51-Ni.Herbig). FUMBLES (51-Ni.Herbig) [51-Ni.Herbig], touched at CLE 25, RECOVERED by PIT-25-D.Elliott at CLE 27.
26.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Browns at 3 chunk plays.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 16 on third down, against Browns at 1 of 10 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Browns won this one — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.31 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Browns at 3 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
(7:10) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston sacked at CLE 20 for -5 yards (51-Ni.Herbig). FUMBLES (51-Ni.Herbig) [51-Ni.Herbig], touched at CLE 25, RECOVERED by PIT-25-D.Elliott at CLE 27.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Nick Chubb's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 1:00 left in the 4th put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Calvin Austin23-yd TD catch23-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilson · two-point no good+619–18
Nick Chubb2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no goodLead never changed again+619–248 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Steelerscategory by categoryBrowns
Steelers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 68 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Browns’s 57 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 3, Browns 4.
Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's pass rate over expected, −17.6 pts, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 12 — 1.8 points clear of the next team along.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
CLE's sack or hit rate, 31.4%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 12 — 5.7 points clear of the next team along.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
CLE's blitz rate sent, 11.4%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 12 — 1.1 points clear of the next team along.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.6 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
CLE's early-down pass rate, 43.9%, is past their previous low of 50.0% in week 6 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.3 points. · −2.1σ from their own normal
PIT's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 40.0% in week 5 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 12.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 21.3 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
CLE's play-action rate turned over: 13.5% in week 11 against 29.0% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points. · +0.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Steelers-17.6 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −11.3 vs their -6.3 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.68× that swing) · 67 snaps
Browns-1.1 ptsright on their number · −1.4 vs their 0.3 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 55 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 26% to 88%
Tendencies room →Steelers37.5%leaned — ran early · −10.7 vs their 48.2%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−1.31× that swing) · 48 early downs
Browns43.9%off script — ran early · −19.7 vs their 63.7%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (−2.13× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 58%
Tendencies room →Steelers17.1%inside their normal wobble · −9.8 vs their 26.9%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Browns29.0%inside their normal wobble · +6.5 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26% to 123%
Fourth Down room →Steelers75.0%off script — went for it · +43.7 vs their 31.3%, and they swing ±21.3 week to week (+2.05× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Browns57.1%right on their number · −2.0 vs their 59.1%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 7 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 71%
Tendencies room →Steelers22.6%inside their normal wobble · −7.0 vs their 29.6%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Browns11.4%leaned — sat back · −19.6 vs their 31.0%, and they swing ±15.6 week to week (−1.25× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 40%
Tendencies room →Steelers19.4%right on their number · +2.7 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Browns31.4%leaned — got home · +12.9 vs their 18.6%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.54× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
CLE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 43.9%, 19.7 points below their season mean of 63.7% and 2.1 times their own 9.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · PIT
21/28, 270 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
7.8 expected points added · +26.7% completion over expected
Passing · CLE
18/27, 219 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-0.8 expected points added · +2.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Calvin Austin banked 12.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick ChubbRB · Bell Cow Back | 19.0 | +0.7 | 66% | 45% | 4% | 0% | 20 car, 59 yd, 2 TD · 1/1, 1 yd |
| Calvin AustinWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.8 | +12.1 | 58% | 69% | 12% | 25% | 3/3, 78 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Committee Back | 15.4 | +4.4 | 57% | 63% | 16% | 0% | 11 car, 45 yd, 1 TD · 3/4, 19 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Featured Receiver | 14.5 | +5.5 | 83% | 87% | 22% | 30% | 6/6, 85 yd |
| Russell WilsonQB · Starter QB | 13.8 | +3.0 | 90% | — | 0% | — | 21/28, 270 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 10 yd |
| Jameis WinstonQB · Starter QB | 13.5 | −2.2 | 98% | — | 0% | — | 18/27, 219 yd, 1 INT · 3 car, 7 yd, 1 TD |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.9 | +4.8 | 64% | 89% | 16% | 12% | 4/4, 59 yd |
| George PickensWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.8 | −1.5 | 90% | 94% | 28% | 51% | 4/7, 48 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB · Committee Back | 7.4 | −2.9 | 39% | 31% | 8% | 0% | 16 car, 41 yd · 2/2, 13 yd |
| Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.8 | +0.7 | 41% | 48% | 15% | 16% | 3/4, 38 yd |
| Van JeffersonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.9 | +3.4 | 26% | 29% | 8% | 14% | 2/2, 39 yd |
| Elijah MooreWR · Featured Receiver | 5.1 | −2.6 | 69% | 71% | 19% | 21% | 3/5, 21 yd |
| Darnell WashingtonTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | +0.4 | 55% | 54% | 12% | 0% | 3/3, 14 yd |
| David NjokuTE · Featured Receiver | 3.9 | −7.3 | 98% | 100% | 19% | 10% | 1/5, 9 yd |
| Blake WhiteheartTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | +2.7 | 17% | 13% | 4% | 12% | 1/1, 29 yd |
| Jerome FordRB | 3.7 | +0.6 | 34% | 55% | 4% | 1% | 4 car, 19 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Cedric TillmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −2.8 | 53% | 48% | 15% | 10% | 2/4, 28 yd |
| Justin FieldsQB | 2.6 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Connor HeywardRB | 0.0 | — | 20% | 6% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Ben SkowronekWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB | -0.2 | −3.7 | 12% | 6% | 0% | — | 1 car, -2 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:06) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right [58-J.Hicks].
Q4 0:06 · Steelers · 3rd & 1 at CLE 35 · gained nothing · -1.24 EP · −25.3% win probability
156 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 170 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 165. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 80 yards from the CLE 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Steelers3
Browns0Steelers3Browns6Steelers3Browns7How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Steelers3Browns10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Steelers6Browns10Steelers6Browns16Steelers6Browns18Steelers12Browns18Steelers13Browns18How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Steelers19Browns18How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Steelers19Browns24How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Steelers at Browns, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 21/28 | 270 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +7.8 |
| Justin Fields | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 1 | −1.8 |
| Najee Harris | 16 | 41 | 2.6 | 0 | −5.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Austin | 3 | 3 | 78 | 1 | 12% | +8.5 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 4 | 4 | 59 | 0 | 16% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Queen | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| DeShon Elliott | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cameron Heyward |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 18/27 | 219 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −0.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_12_PIT_CLE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Steelers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 36.5; the game landed 43 — over by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Justin Fields | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| +5.7 |
| George Pickens | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 | 28% | +2.5 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 | 8% | +2.6 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 16% | −1.6 |
| Darnell Washington | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 12% | +0.2 |
| Najee Harris | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 8% | +0.9 |
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Joey Porter | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Payton Wilson | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Herbig | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Preston Smith | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Watt | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donte Jackson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 20 | 59 | 3.0 | 2 | +2.1 |
| Jerome Ford | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 1 | +3.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 6 | 85 | 0 | 22% | +8.2 |
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 | 15% | +2.1 |
| Blake Whiteheart | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 4% | +1.6 |
| Cedric Tillman | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 15% | −7.3 |
| Elijah Moore | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 19% | −2.6 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 19% | −2.5 |
| Jerome Ford | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4% | −0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Delpit | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Thornhill | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Martin Emerson | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Hicks | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Ward | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohamoud Diabate | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Garrett | 3 | 2 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hickman | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maurice Hurst | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rodney McLeod | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
