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Pittsburgh Steelers 19 at Cleveland Browns 24. Final.
Steelers -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2024 Week 12
Cleveland Browns 24, Steelers 19 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 7:10, 2nd and 9, on Jameis Winston — 26.2 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:10 · 2nd and 9
Jameis Winston
Steelers
(7:10) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston sacked at CLE 20 for -5 yards (51-Ni.Herbig). FUMBLES (51-Ni.Herbig) [51-Ni.Herbig], touched at CLE 25, RECOVERED by PIT-25-D.Elliott at CLE 27.
O 36.5 ✓
Steelers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Cleveland Browns 24–19. Biggest swing: Q4 7:10, Steelers +26.2% win probability on one snap.
26.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jerry JeudyBrownsQ4 2:36(2:36) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short left to 3-J.Jeudy to PIT 33 for 5 yards (24-J.Porter).
18.7pts
Russell WilsonBrownsQ4 0:06(:06) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right [58-J.Hicks].
24.1pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Browns at 3 chunk plays.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 16 on third down, against Browns at 1 of 10 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Browns won this one — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.31 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Browns at 3 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Steelers158 of 170 plays carry both curves
(7:10) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston sacked at CLE 20 for -5 yards (51-Ni.Herbig). FUMBLES (51-Ni.Herbig) [51-Ni.Herbig], touched at CLE 25, RECOVERED by PIT-25-D.Elliott at CLE 27.
Swing −26.2 for BrownsExpected points −4.59 for BrownsThe model had Browns 5 points higher than the market did.play 129
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 7:10PIT +26% win prob(7:10) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston sacked at CLE 20 for -5 yards (51-Ni.Herbig). FUMBLES (51-Ni.Herbig) [51-Ni.Herbig], touched at CLE 25, RECOVERED by PIT-25-D.Elliott at CLE 27.
4th · 0:06PIT +24% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right [58-J.Hicks].
4th · 2:36CLE +19% win prob(2:36) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short left to 3-J.Jeudy to PIT 33 for 5 yards (24-J.Porter).
4th · 4:28PIT +17% win prob(4:28) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass deep left intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at PIT 22. 26-D.Jackson to PIT 24 for 2 yards (8-E.Moore).
2nd · 3:19PIT +16% win prob(3:19) 3-R.Wilson sacked at PIT 25 for -7 yards (95-M.Garrett). FUMBLES (95-M.Garrett), touched at PIT 28, RECOVERED by CLE-59-W.Reid at PIT 31.
4th · 6:20CLE +15% win prob(6:20) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 19-C.Austin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Tomlinson].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nick Chubb's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 1:00 left in the 4th put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd10:58Chris Boswell·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.Kuntz+33–0
4th6:20Calvin Austin·23-yd TD catch23-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson · two-point no good+619–18
4th1:00Nick Chubb·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no goodLead never changed again+619–24
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryBrowns
Steelers5–4Browns
368Total yards306
5.4Yards per play5.4
37%Success rate49%
44%Third-down rate10%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
9Explosive plays3
16First downs19
4Sacks taken1
1Turnovers3
The read
Steelers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.04Steelers: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.01Browns: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.22Steelers: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.07Browns: −0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.31Steelers: −0.31 expected points added per play
+0.09Browns: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 68 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Browns’s 57 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 3, Browns 4.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
PIT's pass rate over expected, −17.6 pts, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 12 — 1.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −15.5 pts in week 2.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 11.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CLE's sack or hit rate, 31.4%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 12 — 5.7 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 11.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CLE's blitz rate sent, 11.4%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 12 — 1.1 points clear of the next team along.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.6 points.
CLE's play-action rate turned over: 13.5% in week 11 against 29.0% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 13 pts
right on their number · +2.7 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Browns31.4%
leaned — got home · +12.9 vs their 18.6%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.54× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteCLE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 43.9%, 19.7 points below their season mean of 63.7% and 2.1 times their own 9.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
66Mason McCormickG · Every snap100%69 snaps
77Broderick JonesT · Every snap100%69 snaps
73Isaac SeumaloG · Every snap100%69 snaps
65Dan Moore Jr.T · Every snap100%69 snaps
54Zach FrazierC · Every snap100%69 snaps
3Russell WilsonQB · Full-time90%62 snaps
14George PickensWR · Full-time90%62 snaps
88Pat FreiermuthTE · Heavy rotation64%44 snaps
19Calvin Austin IIIWR · Heavy rotation58%40 snaps
30Jaylen WarrenRB · Heavy rotation57%39 snaps
80Darnell WashingtonTE · Heavy rotation55%38 snaps
81MyCole PruittTE · Rotational46%32 snaps
22Najee HarrisRB · Rotational39%27 snaps
18Mike WilliamsWR · Rotational28%19 snaps
11Van JeffersonWR · Rotational26%18 snaps
83Connor HeywardTE · Situational20%14 snaps
84Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Situational12%8 snaps
2Justin FieldsQB · Situational10%7 snaps
15Ben SkowronekWR · Situational3%2 snaps
74Spencer AndersonT · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 5
Max ScharpingGAlex HighsmithOLBKyle AllenQBJonathan WardRBScott MillerWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass−25% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:06) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right [58-J.Hicks].
Q4 0:06 · Steelers · 3rd & 1 at CLE 35 · gained nothing · -1.24 EP · −25.3% win probability
156 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 165. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 80 yards from the CLE 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
40%
Yards
674
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27+0.2341%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26-0.2346%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24+0.2263%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21+0.2276%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR13-0.6946%
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
No good11 plays, from the Steelers 21 to the Browns 32
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 48 to the Steelers 46
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and three tight endsDefense on the fieldFive linemen, three linebackers and three backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Steelers 19 to the Browns 38
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 40 to the Browns 48
The period ended4 plays, from the Steelers 11 to the Steelers 19
2nd quarter41 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Steelers3Browns0
Field goal9 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Browns 25
Steelers3Browns6
Steelers3Browns7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Steelers 2
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Steelers 32
Steelers3Browns10
Field goal9 plays, from the Steelers 31 to the Steelers 16
The period ended6 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Steelers 49
3rd quarter34 plays
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 45
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 46
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 45 to the Steelers 39
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Steelers6Browns10
Field goal14 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Browns 9
The period ended6 plays, from the Browns 35 to the Steelers 30
4th quarter62 plays
Steelers6Browns16
Steelers6Browns18
Touchdown7 plays, from the Steelers 27 to the Steelers 2
Steelers12Browns18
Steelers13Browns18
Touchdown11 plays, from the Steelers 31 to the Browns 3
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Browns 24 to the Browns 25
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Steelers19Browns18
Touchdown4 plays, from the Browns 27 to the Browns 23
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.2 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Browns 33 to the Steelers 38
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 24 to the Steelers 30
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Steelers19Browns24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Steelers 45 to the Steelers 2
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
The period ended11 plays, from the Steelers 36 to the Browns 35
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Steelers -3.5
Closing total
36.5
Steelers moneyline
-205
Browns moneyline
+170
Steelers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 36.5; the game landed 43 — over by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 37°F at kickoff; breezy at 14 mph out of the west; 0.13 in of precipitation; moderate snow.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Steelers 4 days · Browns 4 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Kevin Stefanski
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 5:28CLE +15% win prob(5:28) 5-J.Winston pass deep right to 3-J.Jeudy to PIT 38 for 26 yards (26-D.Jackson) [6-P.Queen].
4th · 1:55CLE +13% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short left to 3-J.Jeudy to PIT 14 for 15 yards (24-J.Porter) [99-L.Ogunjobi]. PENALTY on PIT-31-B.Bishop, Defensive Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 14.
