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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 24, 2024 · Lambeau Field
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 12
It turned at Q3 6:00, 3rd and 8, on Xavier McKinney — 5.9 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Green Bay Packers 38–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 6:00, Packers +5.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 6:00 · 3rd and 8
Xavier McKinney
Packers
(6:00) (Shotgun) 17-B.Allen pass deep middle intended for 1-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at GB 26. 29-X.McKinney pushed ob at SF 26 for 48 yards (17-B.Allen).
5.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 3 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.13 expected points per snap, against 49ers at -0.42 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.27 expected points per dropback, against 49ers at -0.52 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Packers won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against 49ers at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
(6:00) (Shotgun) 17-B.Allen pass deep middle intended for 1-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at GB 26. 29-X.McKinney pushed ob at SF 26 for 48 yards (17-B.Allen).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tucker Kraft's 11-yard touchdown catch with 7:42 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Tucker Kraft11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan LoveLead never changed again+70–78 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categoryPackers
Packers ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 46 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Packers’s 67 at 37%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 1, Packers 5.
Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.42.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →49ers-0.4 ptsright on their number · +1.9 vs their -2.3 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 46 snaps
Packers-15.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · −6.8 vs their -8.2 pts, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 67 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 8% to 87%
Tendencies room →49ers58.8%right on their number · +4.4 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 34 early downs
Packers30.8%inside their normal wobble · −13.5 vs their 44.2%, and they swing ±14.1 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 56%
Tendencies room →49ers21.9%right on their number · +2.5 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Packers32.0%inside their normal wobble · +7.7 vs their 24.3%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+0.63× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32% to 85%
Fourth Down room →49ers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 21.7%.
Packers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 33.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 48%
Tendencies room →49ers24.0%right on their number · +3.8 vs their 20.2%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Packers25.0%right on their number · +1.9 vs their 23.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 33%
Tendencies room →49ers12.0%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Packers12.5%right on their number · −1.0 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Nothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was GB's early-down pass rate, 30.8% against a season mean of 44.2% — and GB swings 14.1 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 4 inactive
Inactive · 4
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
17/29, 199 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-10.7 expected points added · -3.9% completion over expected
Passing · GB
13/23, 163 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
6.6 expected points added · -2.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
George Kittle banked 8.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh JacobsRB · Bell Cow Back | 28.6 | +0.2 | 53% | 32% | 5% | 0% | 26 car, 106 yd, 3 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| George KittleTE · Featured Receiver | 20.2 | +8.5 | 84% | 84% | 23% | 26% | 6/6, 82 yd, 1 TD |
| Jordan LoveQB · Starter QB | 14.7 | +3.2 | 94% | — | 0% | — | 13/23, 163 yd, 2 TD · 1 car, 2 yd |
| Tucker KraftTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.6 | +7.2 | 79% | 88% | 9% | 0% | 2/2, 26 yd, 1 TD |
| Malik HeathWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.5 | +4.1 | 21% | 16% | 9% | 4% | 2/2, 15 yd, 1 TD |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.0 | −0.2 | 92% | 97% | 27% | 23% | 5/7, 40 yd |
| Brandon AllenQB · Starter QB | 8.5 | −3.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/29, 199 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 5 yd |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.4 | −1.9 | 51% | 56% | 27% | 29% | 3/6, 54 yd |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back | 7.8 | −4.7 | 82% | 81% | 15% | 4% | 11 car, 31 yd · 3/4, 37 yd |
| Jayden ReedWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | +1.2 | 50% | 68% | 14% | 5% | 3/3, 26 yd |
| Emanuel WilsonRB | 4.1 | −0.9 | 21% | 16% | 0% | — | 9 car, 41 yd |
| Christopher BrooksRB | 3.6 | −0.8 | 35% | 56% | 5% | 0% | 4 car, 11 yd · 1/1, 15 yd |
| Dontayvion WicksWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −0.6 | 39% | 40% | 9% | 13% | 1/2, 25 yd |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −3.4 | 67% | 88% | 15% | 19% | 1/4, 21 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 2.4 | +0.9 | 41% | 28% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 14 yd |
| Jordan MasonRB | 2.3 | −1.8 | 18% | 19% | 8% | 2% | 3 car, 8 yd · 1/2, 5 yd |
| John FitzPatrickTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.3 | 19% | 16% | 5% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Bo MeltonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.5 | −1.6 | 32% | 32% | 5% | 15% | 1 car, 5 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Christian WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.4 | −5.9 | 65% | 68% | 14% | 33% | 1 car, 4 yd · 0/3, 0 yd |
| Isaac GuerendoRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 27% | 25% | 4% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Chris ConleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ricky PearsallWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 67% | 69% | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:00) (Shotgun) 17-B.Allen pass deep middle intended for 1-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at GB 26. 29-X.McKinney pushed ob at SF 26 for 48 yards (17-B.Allen).
Q3 6:00 · 49ers · 3rd & 8 at GB 45 · gained nothing · -5.97 EP · −7.0% win probability
151 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 159 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 154. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 71 yards from the GB 29 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
49ers0
Packers649ers0Packers749ers0Packers1049ers0Packers1649ers0Packers1749ers6Packers1749ers7Packers1749ers7Packers2349ers7Packers2449ers10Packers2449ers10Packers3049ers10Packers3149ers10Packers3749ers10Packers38Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Packers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Allen | 17/29 | 199 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −10.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 | −3.2 |
| Jordan Mason | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Brandon Allen |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 6 | 6 | 82 | 1 | 23% | +8.5 |
| Jauan Jennings | 5 | 7 | 40 | 0 | 27% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Mustapha | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac Yiadom | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| De'Vondre Campbell |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 13/23 | 163 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +6.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_12_SF_GB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 28.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 48 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 2.5 |
| 0 |
| −1.0 |
| −1.9 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 15% | −5.0 |
| Deebo Samuel | 1 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 15% | −5.9 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 4% | +1.0 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8% | −1.3 |
| Eric Saubert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.2 |
| Chris Conley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Fred Warner | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Renardo Green | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Leonard Floyd | 4 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Okuayinonu | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Jacobs | 26 | 106 | 4.1 | 3 | +4.0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 | −2.4 |
| Christopher Brooks | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Jordan Love | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 6 | 54 | 0 | 27% | +4.8 |
| Tucker Kraft | 2 | 2 | 26 | 1 | 9% | +3.7 |
| Jayden Reed | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 14% | +2.2 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 9% | +1.4 |
| Christopher Brooks | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 5% | +0.3 |
| Malik Heath | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 9% | +2.8 |
| John FitzPatrick | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| Josh Jacobs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.7 |
| Bo Melton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.4 |
| Christian Watson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14% | −1.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon Bullard | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quay Walker | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Evan Williams | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Wilson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McDuffie | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier McKinney | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Lukas Van Ness | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashan Gary | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tedarrell Slaton | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arron Mosby | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
