2024 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 24, 2024 · Lambeau Field
San Francisco 49ers
10
Green Bay PackersWinner
38
Green Bay Packers 38–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 6:00, SF +6% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(6:00) (Shotgun) 17-B.Allen pass deep middle intended for 1-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at GB 26. 29-X.McKinney pushed ob at SF 26 for 48 yards (17-B.Allen).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q3 · 6:00SF +6% win prob(6:00) (Shotgun) 17-B.Allen pass deep middle intended for 1-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at GB 26. 29-X.McKinney pushed ob at SF 26 for 48 yards (17-B.Allen).
- Q1 · 14:53GB +4% win prob(14:53) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs left guard to SF 49 for 18 yards (2-D.Lenoir; 6-M.Mustapha).
- Q1 · 11:29GB +4% win prob(11:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 11-J.Reed pushed ob at SF 24 for 7 yards (0-R.Green).
- Q3 · 10:51SF +3% win prob(10:51) (Shotgun) 17-B.Allen pass incomplete short left to 23-C.McCaffrey (29-X.McKinney).
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 7:42GB Touchdown
(7:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 0 — GB 7 - Q1 · 0:16GB Field goal
(:16) 17-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Score after this play: SF 0 — GB 10 - Q2 · 6:37GB Touchdown
(6:37) 8-J.Jacobs left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 0 — GB 17 - Q2 · 1:05SF Touchdown
(1:05) (Shotgun) 17-B.Allen pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 7 — GB 17 - Q3 · 4:32GB Touchdown
(4:32) 76-K.Telfort reported in as eligible. 8-J.Jacobs left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 7 — GB 24 - Q3 · 2:17SF Field goal
(2:17) 4-J.Moody 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.
Score after this play: SF 10 — GB 24 - Q4 · 11:03GB Touchdown
(11:03) 8-J.Jacobs left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 10 — GB 31 - Q4 · 4:18GB Touchdown
(4:18) 10-J.Love pass short left to 18-M.Heath for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 10 — GB 38
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | 49ers | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 46 | 67 |
| Total yards | 242 | 325 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.3 (edge) | 4.9 |
| Expected points added / play | -0.42 | 0.13 (edge) |
| Success rate | 30% | 48% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 70% | 37% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.52 | 0.27 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.18 | 0.04 (edge) |
| Third downs | 3/10 | 6/13 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 | 6 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 12 | 21 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 2 | 2 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 0 (edge) |
Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.42.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · SF
17/29, 199 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-10.7 expected points added · -3.9% completion over expected
Passing · GB
13/23, 163 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
6.6 expected points added · -2.2% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | GB 33 | 14 | 77 | 7:25 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 2 | SF | SF 32 | 5 | 8 | 2:40 | Punt | |
| 3 | GB | GB 19 | 10 | 49 | 4:44 | Field goal +3 | |
| 4 | SF | SF 30 | 5 | 13 | 1:42 | Punt | |
| 5 | GB | GB 29 | 13 | 71 | 6:56 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 6 | SF | SF 35 | 13 | 75 | 5:31 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 7 | GB | GB 30 | 7 | 21 | 0:56 | Punt | |
| 8 | SF | SF 25 | 1 | 0 | 0:06 | End of half | |
| 9 | SF | SF 21 | 8 | 35 | 4:13 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | GB | GB 40 | 4 | 0 | 1:28 | Punt | |
| 11 | SF | SF 10 | 6 | 45 | 3:30 | Interception | |
| 12 | GB | SF 26 | 4 | 9 | 1:21 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 13 | SF | SF 26 | 7 | 44 | 2:16 | Field goal +3 | |
| 14 | GB | GB 30 | 5 | 15 | 1:31 | Punt | |
| 15 | SF | SF 21 | 4 | -1 | 0:56 | Punt | |
| 16 | GB | GB 37 | 4 | 2 | 2:08 | Punt | |
| 17 | SF | SF 10 | 1 | 0 | 0:07 | Fumble | |
| 18 | GB | SF 16 | 4 | 16 | 1:31 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 19 | SF | SF 30 | 2 | 23 | 0:08 | Fumble | |
| 20 | GB | GB 44 | 11 | 56 | 6:37 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 21 | SF | SF 30 | 5 | 8 | 0:55 | Turnover on downs | |
| 22 | GB | SF 38 | 4 | 9 | 2:06 | Turnover on downs | |
| 23 | SF | SF 29 | 2 | -8 | 1:13 | End of game |
8 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 77 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
San Francisco 49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Allen | 17/29 | 199 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -10.7 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 | -3.2 |
| Jordan Mason | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | 0.6 |
| Brandon Allen | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | -1.0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 6 | 6 | 82 | 1 | 23% | 8.5 |
| Jauan Jennings | 5 | 7 | 40 | 0 | 27% | -1.9 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 15% | -5.0 |
| Deebo Samuel | 1 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 15% | -5.9 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 4% | 1.0 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8% | -1.3 |
| Eric Saubert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -1.2 |
| Chris Conley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -0.6 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Mustapha | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac Yiadom | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| De'Vondre Campbell | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Warner | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Renardo Green | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Leonard Floyd | 4 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Okuayinonu | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
Green Bay Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 13/23 | 163 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6.6 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 26 | 106 | 4.1 | 3 | 4.0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 | -2.4 |
| Christopher Brooks | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 | -1.3 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Jordan Love | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 1.6 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 6 | 54 | 0 | 27% | 4.8 |
| Tucker Kraft | 2 | 2 | 26 | 1 | 9% | 3.7 |
| Jayden Reed | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 14% | 2.2 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 9% | 1.4 |
| Christopher Brooks | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 5% | 0.3 |
| Malik Heath | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 9% | 2.8 |
| John FitzPatrick | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5% | -0.5 |
| Josh Jacobs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | -0.7 |
| Bo Melton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | -0.4 |
| Christian Watson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14% | -1.6 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon Bullard | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quay Walker | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Evan Williams | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Wilson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McDuffie | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier McKinney | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Lukas Van Ness | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashan Gary | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tedarrell Slaton | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arron Mosby | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- GB -6.5
- Closing total
- 44.5
- SF moneyline
- +235
- GB moneyline
- -290
Packers closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 28.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 48 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Lambeau Field
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 43°F, wind 11 mph
- Referee
- Craig Wrolstad
- Rest
- SF 7 days · GB 7 days
- Coaches
- Kyle Shanahan vs Matt LaFleur