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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Buccaneers148 of 157 plays carry both curves
(7:27) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 7-B.Irving to NYG 1 for 14 yards (31-T.Nubin; 27-J.Pinnock).
Swing −4.2 for GiantsExpected points −1.57 for GiantsThe model had Giants 25 points higher than the market did.play 16
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 7:27NYG +4% win prob(7:27) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 7-B.Irving to NYG 1 for 14 yards (31-T.Nubin; 27-J.Pinnock).
1st · 9:35NYG +4% win prob(9:35) (Shotgun) 44-S.Tucker left guard to NYG 25 for 3 yards (58-B.Okereke).
2nd · 12:03TB +3% win prob(12:03) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito sacked at NYG 24 for -6 yards (98-A.Nelson).
1st · 0:07TB +3% win prob(:07) 17-W.Robinson left tackle to NYG 37 for no gain (0-Y.Diaby, 54-L.David).
2nd · 15:00NYG +3% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 13-M.Evans to NYG 9 for 26 yards (3-D.Banks).
1st · 5:12TB +3% win prob(5:12) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito up the middle to NYG 48 for 1 yard (50-V.Vea).
2nd · 12:59TB +2% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Sean Tucker's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 6:39 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:39Sean Tucker·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
2nd12:06Chase McLaughlin·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap E.Deckers+310–0
Buccaneers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.69 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.26Buccaneers: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.25Giants: −0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.69Buccaneers: +0.69 expected points added per play
−0.12Giants: −0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Buccaneers: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.62Giants: −0.62 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 62 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Giants’s 55 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 5, Giants 3.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 16 pts
leaned — got home · +7.0 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.16× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Giants6.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.6 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.13× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteNYG's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 69.0%, 11.2 points above their season mean of 57.8% and 1.2 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
68Ben BredesonG · Every snap100%65 snaps
69Cody MauchG · Every snap100%65 snaps
67Luke GoedekeG · Every snap100%65 snaps
77Justin SkuleT · Every snap100%65 snaps
62Graham BartonC · Every snap100%65 snaps
6Baker MayfieldQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
88Cade OttonTE · Full-time82%53 snaps
15Jalen McMillanWR · Heavy rotation63%41 snaps
13Mike EvansWR · Heavy rotation60%39 snaps
17Sterling ShepardWR · Heavy rotation54%35 snaps
7Bucky IrvingRB · Heavy rotation52%34 snaps
1Rachaad WhiteRB · Rotational49%32 snaps
87Payne DurhamTE · Rotational37%24 snaps
18Rakim JarrettWR · Rotational32%21 snaps
10Trey PalmerWR · Rotational26%17 snaps
81Ryan MillerWR · Situational23%15 snaps
41Ko KieftTE · Situational8%5 snaps
44Sean TuckerRB · Situational8%5 snaps
50Vita VeaNT · Situational3%2 snaps
70Robert HainseyC · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Tyrek FunderburkCBEarnest Brown IVDEJose RamirezOLBTykee SmithSSTristan WirfsTDevin CulpTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Royce NewmanGKyle TraskQB
New York Giants
48 dressed · 5 inactive
74Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%59 snaps
76Jon RunyanG · Every snap100%59 snaps
61John Michael SchmitzC · Every snap100%59 snaps
73Evan NealT · Every snap100%59 snaps
15Tommy DeVitoQB · Full-time98%58 snaps
70Chris HubbardT · Full-time93%55 snaps
1Malik NabersWR · Full-time93%55 snaps
17Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Full-time83%49 snaps
84Theo JohnsonTE · Heavy rotation73%43 snaps
86Darius SlaytonWR · Heavy rotation58%34 snaps
13Jalin HyattWR · Rotational42%25 snaps
29Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · Rotational41%24 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Rotational36%21 snaps
82Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational29%17 snaps
20Eric GrayRB · Rotational25%15 snaps
85Chris ManhertzTE · Situational20%12 snaps
72Jermaine EluemunorT · Situational7%4 snaps
2Drew LockQB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Tre Hawkins IIICBAnthony Johnson Jr.FSJake KubasGJordon RileyNTTim BoyleQB
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Tucker left+8% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(9:35) (Shotgun) 44-S.Tucker left guard to NYG 25 for 3 yards (58-B.Okereke).
Q1 9:35 · Buccaneers · 4th & 1 at NYG 28 · gained 3 · +1.83 EP · +7.8% win probability
147 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 157 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 146 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 152. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 95 yards from the TB 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
157 of 157 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
157
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
45%
Yards
696
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.1771%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.2648%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.0046%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.1857%
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.9767%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Buccaneers6Giants0
Buccaneers7Giants0
Touchdown17 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Giants 1
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Giants 48
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 16 to the Buccaneers 33
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Giants 28 to the Giants 37
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter43 plays
Buccaneers10Giants0
Field goal5 plays, from the Giants 35 to the Giants 1
Punt5 plays
Buccaneers16Giants0
Buccaneers17Giants0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 18 to the Giants 6
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Buccaneers 35
Buccaneers23Giants0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Buccaneers 14 to the Giants 10
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Buccaneers 5
Buccaneers29Giants0
Buccaneers30Giants0
Touchdown15 plays, from the Buccaneers 5 to the Giants 1
The period ended10 plays, from the Giants 32 to the Buccaneers 40
4th quarter44 plays
Buccaneers30Giants6
Buccaneers30Giants7
Touchdown8 plays, from midfield to the Buccaneers 1
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Buccaneers 2 to the Giants 30
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Giants 35 to the Giants 49
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 49 to the Giants 43
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 10 to the Giants 13
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Giants 39 to the Giants 30
The period ended11 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Buccaneers 14
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -6.5
Closing total
40.5
Buccaneers moneyline
-298
Giants moneyline
+240
Buccaneers closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 23.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 37 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 50°F at kickoff; breezy at 14 mph out of the west; overcast.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Buccaneers 14 days · Giants 14 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Brian Daboll
(12:59) 50-V.Vea and 70-R.Hainsey reported in as eligible. 44-S.Tucker left tackle to NYG 2 for -1 yards (58-B.Okereke). FUMBLES (58-B.Okereke), touched at NYG 2, recovered by TB-6-B.Mayfield at NYG 5. 6-B.Mayfield to NYG 4 for 1 yard (96-A.Watts).
2nd · 12:06TB +2% win prob(12:06) 4-C.McLaughlin 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill.
