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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 24, 2024 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 12
It turned at Q1 7:27, 1st and 10, on Bucky Irving — 4.2 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:27, Buccaneers +4.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:27 · 1st and 10
Bucky Irving
Buccaneers
(7:27) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 7-B.Irving to NYG 1 for 14 yards (31-T.Nubin; 27-J.Pinnock).
4.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.69 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.12 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.26 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.25 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Buccaneers won this one — -0.19 expected points per carry, against Giants at -0.62 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Buccaneers won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Giants at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(7:27) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 7-B.Irving to NYG 1 for 14 yards (31-T.Nubin; 27-J.Pinnock).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Sean Tucker's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 6:39 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Buccaneerscategory by categoryGiants
Buccaneers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.69 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 62 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Giants’s 55 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 5, Giants 3.
Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Buccaneers-1.3 ptsright on their number · −1.2 vs their -0.0 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 62 snaps
Giants-0.5 ptsright on their number · +3.1 vs their -3.6 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 55 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 29% to 82%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers55.1%right on their number · −0.1 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 49 early downs
Giants69.0%leaned — passed early · +11.2 vs their 57.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+1.21× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 51%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers28.1%leaned — faked the run · +8.8 vs their 19.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.01× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Giants30.0%inside their normal wobble · +6.0 vs their 24.0%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -51% to 99%
Fourth Down room →Buccaneers50.0%leaned — went for it · +28.6 vs their 21.4%, and they swing ±28.4 week to week (+1.01× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Giants—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 39.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 91%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers60.0%inside their normal wobble · +16.1 vs their 43.9%, and they swing ±18.3 week to week (+0.88× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Giants31.3%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 29.2%, and they swing ±12.2 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 34%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers22.5%leaned — got home · +7.0 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.16× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Giants6.3%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.6 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.13× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NYG's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 69.0%, 11.2 points above their season mean of 57.8% and 1.2 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
New York Giants
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
24/30, 294 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
16.7 expected points added · +12.6% completion over expected
Passing · NYG
21/31, 189 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-6.3 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Bucky Irving banked 11.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky IrvingRB · Committee Back | 27.2 | +11.1 | 52% | 66% | 20% | 0% | 12 car, 88 yd, 1 TD · 6/6, 64 yd |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 18.7 | +3.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/30, 294 yd · 4 car, 29 yd, 1 TD |
| Malik NabersWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.4 | −0.9 | 93% | 95% | 30% | 50% | 6/9, 64 yd |
| Mike EvansWR · Featured Receiver | 11.8 | +1.7 | 60% | 66% | 20% | 31% | 5/6, 68 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Committee Back | 11.7 | +1.8 | 49% | 44% | 3% | 0% | 12 car, 37 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 10 yd |
| Tommy DeVitoQB · Starter QB | 10.8 | −2.0 | 98% | — | 0% | — | 21/31, 189 yd · 7 car, 32 yd |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.7 | +3.0 | 83% | 90% | 17% | 16% | 1 car, 0 yd · 5/5, 47 yd |
| Tyrone TracyRB · Committee Back | 9.0 | −2.8 | 41% | 33% | 13% | 8% | 9 car, 42 yd · 4/4, 28 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB | 9.0 | +2.5 | 36% | 40% | 7% | 1% | 2 car, 3 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 7 yd |
| Sean TuckerRB | 8.0 | −1.0 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Theo JohnsonTE · Featured Receiver | 6.9 | −0.5 | 73% | 70% | 20% | 9% | 3/6, 39 yd |
| Sterling ShepardWR · Featured Receiver | 6.6 | −3.9 | 54% | 66% | 23% | 7% | 5/7, 16 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −1.2 | 82% | 94% | 10% | 12% | 1/3, 30 yd |
| Rakim JarrettWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | +2.3 | 32% | 28% | 3% | 13% | 1/1, 30 yd |
| Payne DurhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | +1.8 | 37% | 22% | 3% | 12% | 1/1, 26 yd |
| Trey PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | +1.2 | 26% | 28% | 3% | 9% | 1/1, 18 yd |
| Eric GrayRB | 2.6 | −0.3 | 25% | 28% | 7% | 0% | 1 car, -1 yd · 2/2, 7 yd |
| Ryan MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | +1.1 | 23% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 1/1, 14 yd |
| Jalen McMillanWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −1.0 | 63% | 69% | 7% | 16% | 1/2, 11 yd |
| Drew LockQB | 0.1 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 29% | 30% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.6 | 58% | 53% | 7% | 16% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:35) (Shotgun) 44-S.Tucker left guard to NYG 25 for 3 yards (58-B.Okereke).
Q1 9:35 · Buccaneers · 4th & 1 at NYG 28 · gained 3 · +1.83 EP · +7.8% win probability
147 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 157 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 146 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 152. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 95 yards from the TB 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Buccaneers6
Giants0Buccaneers7Giants0Buccaneers10Giants0Buccaneers16Giants0Buccaneers17Giants0Buccaneers23Giants0Buccaneers29Giants0Buccaneers30Giants0Buccaneers30Giants6Buccaneers30Giants7Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Buccaneers at Giants, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 24/30 | 294 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +16.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 12 | 88 | 7.3 | 1 | +3.0 |
| Rachaad White | 12 | 37 | 3.1 | 1 | −3.3 |
| Baker Mayfield |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 5 | 6 | 68 | 0 | 20% | +4.0 |
| Bucky Irving | 6 | 6 | 64 | 0 | 20% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Izien | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zyon McCollum | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antoine Winfield |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy DeVito | 21/31 | 189 | 0 | 0 | 4 | −6.3 |
| Drew Lock | 1/1 | 3 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_12_TB_NYG
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 23.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 37 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 29 |
| 7.3 |
| 1 |
| +1.2 |
| Sean Tucker | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 1 | −1.4 |
| +4.0 |
| Rakim Jarrett | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 3% | +2.7 |
| Cade Otton | 1 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 10% | +0.8 |
| Payne Durham | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 3% | +1.6 |
| Trey Palmer | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 3% | +1.6 |
| Sterling Shepard | 5 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 23% | −2.4 |
| Ryan Miller | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3% | +2.4 |
| Jalen McMillan | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 7% | +1.2 |
| Rachaad White | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | +0.4 |
| Sean Tucker | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.4 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lavonte David | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Anthony Nelson | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K.J. Britt | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vita Vea | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calijah Kancey | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| YaYa Diaby | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −0.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 | −3.8 |
| Tommy DeVito | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 | +0.0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −3.5 |
| Eric Gray | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | 6 | 9 | 64 | 0 | 30% | +2.7 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 5 | 5 | 47 | 0 | 17% | +2.6 |
| Theo Johnson | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 | 20% | −0.6 |
| Tyrone Tracy | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 13% | +0.3 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | −0.4 |
| Eric Gray | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | −0.9 |
| Darius Slayton | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −2.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Nubin | 5 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Micah McFadden | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Okereke | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andru Phillips | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Pinnock | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deonte Banks | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brian Burns | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Simmons | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Davidson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Muasau | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
