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Tennessee Titans 32, Texans 27 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 0:15, 3rd and 11, on Jimmie Ward — 39.2 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 0:15 · 3rd and 11
Jimmie Ward
Texans
(:15) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short left intended for 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Ward at HOU 35. 20-J.Ward for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Texans closed -8 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tennessee Titans 32–27. Biggest swing: Q3 0:15, Texans +39.2% win probability on one snap.
39.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chigoziem OkonkwoTitansQ4 9:46(9:46) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short right to 85-C.Okonkwo for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
29.9pts
Ka'imi FairbairnTitansQ4 1:56(1:56) 15-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
26.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Titans won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Texans at 3 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Titans won this one — -0.20 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.51 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Titans at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Titans won this one — -0.10 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.23 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Titans166 of 180 plays carry both curves
(:15) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short left intended for 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Ward at HOU 35. 20-J.Ward for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +39.2 for TexansExpected points +8.53 for TexansThe model had Titans 6 points higher than the market did.play 121
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 0:15TEN +39% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short left intended for 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Ward at HOU 35. 20-J.Ward for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 9:46HOU +30% win prob(9:46) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short right to 85-C.Okonkwo for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:56TEN +26% win prob(1:56) 15-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
2nd · 3:29TEN +18% win prob(3:29) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis FUMBLES (Aborted) at HOU 35, RECOVERED by HOU-97-M.Edwards at HOU 35.
4th · 11:34HOU +18% win prob(11:34) 6-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to TEN 39, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-J.Jackson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-17-K.Boyd at TEN 43. HOU-32-K.Hollman was injured during the play.
4th · 1:23TEN +15% win prob(1:23) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 1 for -7 yards (98-J.Simmons).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chigoziem Okonkwo's 70-yard touchdown catch with 9:46 left in the 4th put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
4th9:50Ka'imi Fairbairn·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Weeks+323–27
4th9:46Chigoziem Okonkwo·70-yd TD catch70-yard touchdown catchfrom Will Levisfrom Will LevisLead never changed again+730–27
4th1:17Harold Landry·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+232–27
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryTexans
Titans6–2Texans
371Total yards260
5.8Yards per play4.8
38%Success rate33%
29%Third-down rate23%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays3
16First downs11
8Sacks taken4
2Turnovers2
The read
Titans ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Titans: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.23Texans: −0.23 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.01Titans: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.13Texans: −0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.20Titans: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.51Texans: −0.51 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 64 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Texans’s 54 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Titans 5, Texans 4.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's sack or hit rate turned over: 11.3% in week 11 against 25.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 19 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.0 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.62× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Texans25.7%
leaned — got home · +9.8 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.51× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteHOU's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.7%, 9.8 points above their season mean of 15.9% and 1.5 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
47 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
55JC LathamT · Every snap100%67 snaps
78Nicholas Petit-FrereT · Every snap100%67 snaps
75Dillon RadunzT · Every snap100%67 snaps
60Daniel BrunskillC · Every snap100%67 snaps
77Peter SkoronskiG · Every snap100%67 snaps
8Will LevisQB · Every snap100%67 snaps
20Tony PollardRB · Full-time94%63 snaps
15Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Full-time90%60 snaps
0Calvin RidleyWR · Heavy rotation79%53 snaps
85Chig OkonkwoTE · Heavy rotation76%51 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Heavy rotation57%38 snaps
84Nick VannettTE · Rotational46%31 snaps
81Josh WhyleTE · Rotational33%22 snaps
80Bryce OliverWR · Situational15%10 snaps
36Julius ChestnutRB · Situational3%2 snaps
19Jha'Quan JacksonWR · Situational3%2 snaps
25Joshua KelleyRB · Situational3%2 snaps
61John OjukwuT · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Gabe Jeudy-LallyCBAmani HookerFSTyjae SpearsRBLeroy Watson IVTDavid Martin-RobinsonTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Mason RudolphQB
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
78Laremy TunsilT · Every snap100%56 snaps
70Juice ScruggsC · Every snap100%56 snaps
69Shaq MasonG · Every snap100%56 snaps
71Tytus HowardT · Every snap100%56 snaps
7C.J. StroudQB · Every snap100%56 snaps
54Jarrett PattersonC · Every snap100%56 snaps
3Tank DellWR · Full-time84%47 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Full-time82%46 snaps
12Nico CollinsWR · Heavy rotation79%44 snaps
28Joe MixonRB · Heavy rotation77%43 snaps
8John Metchie IIIWR · Heavy rotation71%40 snaps
87Cade StoverTE · Rotational36%20 snaps
33Dare OgunbowaleRB · Situational23%13 snaps
2Robert WoodsWR · Situational23%13 snaps
19Xavier HutchinsonWR · Situational14%8 snaps
85Teagan QuitorianoTE · Situational11%6 snaps
Inactive · 6
Jeff OkudahCBJerry HughesDEFoley FatukasiDTJamal HillILBBlake FisherTSteven SimsWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Ka'imi Fairbairn−39% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:56) 15-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Q4 1:56 · Texans · 4th & 9 at TEN 10 · gained nothing · -3.34 EP · −38.6% win probability
164 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 175. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 95 yards from the TEN 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
40%
Yards
629
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.1374%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.1366%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.1939%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.4753%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.3014%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Titans0Texans6
Titans0Texans7
Touchdown3 plays
Titans3Texans7
Field goal8 plays, from the Titans 39 to the Texans 29
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 45
Titans9Texans7
Titans10Texans7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Titans 11 to the Texans 38
The period ended6 plays, from the Texans 18 to the Texans 34
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt1 play
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Titans16Texans7
Titans17Texans7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Titans 5 to the Texans 10
Titans17Texans13
Titans17Texans14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Texans 22 to the Titans 5
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Texans 32
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Titans17Texans17
Field goal5 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Titans 9
The period ended9 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Texans 40
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Titans20Texans17
Field goal7 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Titans23Texans17
Field goal13 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Texans 29
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 39
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 16 to the Titans 31
Intercepted2 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Titans23Texans23
Touchdown3 plays, from the Texans 39 to the Texans 36
Titans23Texans24
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter56 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 34 to the Texans 38
Titans23Texans27
Field goal4 plays, from the Titans 43 to the Titans 36
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Titans29Texans27
Titans30Texans27
Touchdown3 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Texans 18 to the Titans 46
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
No good9 plays, from the Titans 49 to the Titans 10
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 27
Titans32Texans27
The period ended5 plays
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Texans -8
Closing total
40.5
Titans moneyline
+295
Texans moneyline
-375
Texans closed -8 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 59 — over by 18.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
Titans 7 days · Texans 6 days
Coaches
Brian Callahan vs DeMeco Ryans
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 0:41
TEN +13% win prob
(:41) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left intended for 8-J.Metchie INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Brownlee at HOU 22. 29-J.Brownlee to HOU 20 for 2 yards (8-J.Metchie).
3rd · 1:39TEN +13% win prob(1:39) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle intended for 12-N.Collins INTERCEPTED by 56-K.Murray at HOU 45. 56-K.Murray to HOU 39 for 6 yards (87-C.Stover). Penalty on HOU-71-T.Howard, Offensive Holding, declined.
