2024 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 24, 2024 · NRG Stadium

Tennessee TitansWinner

Houston Texans

HOU -8 upsetO 40.5 ✓DomeTexans closed -8 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tennessee Titans 32–27. Biggest swing: Q3 0:15, TEN +39% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 0:15TEN 23 — HOU 23TEN ball · 3rd & 11TEN 74%

(:15) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short left intended for 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Ward at HOU 35. 20-J.Ward for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 0:15TEN +39% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short left intended for 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Ward at HOU 35. 20-J.Ward for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 9:46HOU +30% win prob(9:46) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short right to 85-C.Okonkwo for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:56TEN +26% win prob(1:56) 15-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Q2 · 3:29TEN +18% win prob(3:29) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis FUMBLES (Aborted) at HOU 35, RECOVERED by HOU-97-M.Edwards at HOU 35.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 14:47HOU Touchdown
(14:47) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 87-C.Stover for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 0 — HOU 7
Q1 · 11:19TEN Field goal
(11:19) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: TEN 3 — HOU 7
Q1 · 2:03TEN Touchdown
(2:03) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 10 — HOU 7
Q2 · 11:07TEN Touchdown
(11:07) 20-T.Pollard up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 17 — HOU 7
Q2 · 6:22HOU Touchdown
(6:22) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 17 — HOU 14
Q2 · 1:49HOU Field goal
(1:49) 15-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: TEN 17 — HOU 17
Q2 · 0:02TEN Field goal
(:02) 6-N.Folk 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: TEN 20 — HOU 17
Q3 · 9:12TEN Field goal
(9:12) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: TEN 23 — HOU 17
Q3 · 0:15HOU Touchdown
(:15) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short left intended for 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Ward at HOU 35. 20-J.Ward for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 23 — HOU 24
Q4 · 9:50HOU Field goal
(9:50) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: TEN 23 — HOU 27
Q4 · 9:46TEN Touchdown
(9:46) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short right to 85-C.Okonkwo for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 30 — HOU 27
Q4 · 1:17TEN Safety
(1:17) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (58-H.Landry).
Score after this play: TEN 32 — HOU 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Texans
Offensive plays	64	54
Total yards	371 (edge)	260
Yards per play	5.8 (edge)	4.8
Expected points added / play	-0.10 (edge)	-0.23
Success rate	38% (edge)	33%
Dropback rate	55%	74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01 (edge)	-0.13
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.20 (edge)	-0.51
Third downs	4/14 (edge)	3/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	16 (edge)	11
Sacks taken	8	4 (edge)
Turnovers	2	2

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.23.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Will LevisQB

18/24, 278 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-2.0 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

20/33, 247 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-6.4 expected points added · -4.7% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Tony PollardRB

24 att, 119 yds, 1 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Joe MixonRB

14 att, 22 yds, 0 TD

-7.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

Calvin RidleyWR

5/6 for 93 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

5/9 for 92 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 0.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	TEN 19	3	19	0:18	Touchdown +7
2	TEN	TEN 39	7	28	3:27	Field goal +3
3	HOU	HOU 30	8	12	3:19	Punt
4	TEN	TEN 11	11	89	5:59	Touchdown +7
5	HOU	HOU 18	6	18	2:10	Punt
6	TEN	TEN 5	7	100	3:44	Touchdown +7
7	HOU	HOU 22	12	73	4:46	Touchdown +7
8	TEN	TEN 30	7	23	2:53	Fumble
9	HOU	HOU 35	5	55	1:37	Field goal +3
10	TEN	TEN 30	6	26	1:02	Punt
11	HOU	HOU 14	2	0	0:08	Interception
12	TEN	HOU 20	4	-18	0:37	Field goal +3
13	TEN	TEN 27	12	39	5:52	Field goal +3
14	HOU	HOU 30	5	9	2:09	Punt
15	TEN	TEN 16	7	12	4:40	Punt
16	HOU	HOU 25	2	0	0:49	Interception
17	TEN	HOU 39	3	-1	1:26	Defensive touchdown
18	TEN	TEN 27	6	3	2:06	Punt
19	HOU	HOU 34	4	-5	1:34	Punt
20	HOU	TEN 43	4	7	1:38	Field goal +3
21	TEN	TEN 30	3	70	0:11	Touchdown +7
22	HOU	HOU 18	9	26	3:18	Punt
23	TEN	TEN 6	4	-4	0:55	Punt
24	HOU	TEN 49	7	54	3:29	Missed field goal
25	TEN	TEN 20	4	4	0:24	Punt
26	HOU	HOU 8	3	-8	0:16	Safety
27	TEN	HOU 29	3	0	1:13	End of game

10 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 100 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Will Levis	18/24	278	2	1	8	-2.0
Tyler Boyd	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tony Pollard	24	119	5.0	1	0.9
Will Levis	8	10	1.3	0	-6.9
Julius Chestnut	1	3	3.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Calvin Ridley	5	6	93	0	24%	7.2
Chigoziem Okonkwo	1	1	70	1	4%	5.5
Tyler Boyd	6	6	55	0	24%	4.6
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	2	5	48	1	20%	-5.8
Tony Pollard	3	5	10	0	20%	-2.7
Julius Chestnut	1	1	2	0	4%	-1.2
Nick Vannett	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kenneth Murray	6	1	0.0	1	2
Roger McCreary	5	1	0.0	0	0
Mike Brown	3	2	0.0	0	0
Jarvis Brownlee	3	1	0.0	1	3
Daryl Worley	1	3	0.0	0	1
Harold Landry	3	0	1.0	0	0
Darrell Baker	3	0	0.0	0	0
Sebastian Joseph	1	1	0.0	0	0
Arden Key	1	1	0.0	0	0
Jeffery Simmons	2	0	1.0	0	1

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
C.J. Stroud	20/33	247	2	2	4	-6.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	14	22	1.6	0	-7.2
C.J. Stroud	3	18	6.0	0	1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Nico Collins	5	9	92	1	29%	0.8
Tank Dell	3	5	72	0	16%	3.4
Cade Stover	3	4	26	1	13%	1.6
Joe Mixon	5	6	23	0	19%	-1.6
Dalton Schultz	2	2	20	0	6%	0.7
Robert Woods	1	1	8	0	3%	0.8
John Metchie	1	3	6	0	10%	-3.0
Xavier Hutchinson	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Azeez Al-Shaair	5	3	1.0	0	0
Danielle Hunter	6	1	3.0	0	0
Jimmie Ward	6	0	0.0	1	1
Henry To'oTo'o	3	2	0.0	0	1
Eric Murray	3	1	0.0	0	0
Derek Barnett	3	1	1.0	0	0
Kamari Lassiter	3	1	0.0	0	0
Calen Bullock	3	1	0.0	0	0
Cade Stover	3	0	0.0	0	0
Tim Settle	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -8
Closing total: 40.5
TEN moneyline: +295
HOU moneyline: -375

Texans closed -8 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 59 — over by 18.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: TEN 7 days · HOU 6 days
Coaches: Brian Callahan vs DeMeco Ryans

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.