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2024 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 1, 2024 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Arizona Cardinals

22

Minnesota VikingsWinner

23

MIN -3.5 no coverU 45.5 ✓Dome

Minnesota Vikings 23–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:10, MIN +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIN ↑ARI ↓
Q4 · 2:10ARI 22 — MIN 16MIN ball · 4th & 5ARI 83%

(2:10) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to ARI 21 for 12 yards (53-B.Browning) [54-X.Thomas].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 2:10MIN +23% win prob(2:10) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to ARI 21 for 12 yards (53-B.Browning) [54-X.Thomas].
  2. Q4 · 0:40ARI +22% win prob(:40) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right intended for 18-M.Harrison INTERCEPTED by 1-S.Griffin [52-Ji.Ward] at MIN 45. 1-S.Griffin to MIN 45 for no gain (18-M.Harrison).
  3. Q3 · 13:31ARI +14% win prob(13:31) 96-J.Romo 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.
  4. Q2 · 1:16MIN +14% win prob(1:16) 96-J.Romo 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:05ARI Field goal

    (9:05) 38-C.Ryland 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    Score after this play: ARI 3 — MIN 0
  2. Q1 · 4:44MIN Field goal

    (4:44) 96-J.Romo 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: ARI 3 — MIN 3
  3. Q2 · 6:05ARI Field goal

    (6:05) 38-C.Ryland 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    Score after this play: ARI 6 — MIN 3
  4. Q2 · 1:16MIN Field goal

    (1:16) 96-J.Romo 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: ARI 6 — MIN 6
  5. Q2 · 0:02ARI Field goal

    (:02) 38-C.Ryland 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    Score after this play: ARI 9 — MIN 6
  6. Q3 · 8:38ARI Field goal

    (8:38) 38-C.Ryland 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    Score after this play: ARI 12 — MIN 6
  7. Q3 · 4:43ARI Touchdown

    (4:43) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 18-M.Harrison for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 19 — MIN 6
  8. Q3 · 1:24MIN Touchdown

    (1:24) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 86-J.Mundt for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 19 — MIN 13
  9. Q4 · 11:11MIN Field goal

    (11:11) 96-J.Romo 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: ARI 19 — MIN 16
  10. Q4 · 3:23ARI Field goal

    (3:23) 38-C.Ryland 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    Score after this play: ARI 22 — MIN 16
  11. Q4 · 1:18MIN Touchdown

    (1:18) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 33-A.Jones for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 22 — MIN 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCardinalsVikings
Offensive plays7650
Total yards406 (edge)274
Yards per play5.35.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.04 (edge)-0.07
Success rate47%52% (edge)
Dropback rate66%78%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.06 (edge)-0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.00 (edge)-0.02
Third downs5/13 (edge)1/8
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)6 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps23 (edge)17
Sacks taken1 (edge)5
Turnovers21 (edge)

Cardinals outgained Vikings 406–274 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

31/45, 260 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

0.9 expected points added · +1.9% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Sam DarnoldQB

21/31, 235 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

1.1 expected points added · +1.9% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

17 att, 68 yds, 0 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

7 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

7/9 for 99 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Trey McBrideTE

12/12 for 96 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1ARIARI 3012575:58Field goal +3
2MINMIN 3010404:20Field goal +3
3ARIARI 258193:18Punt
4MINMIN 14150:09Fumble
5ARIMIN 19421:57Missed field goal
6MINMIN 354-32:08Punt
7ARIARI 1611916:09Field goal +3
8MINMIN 3010334:49Field goal +3
9ARIARI 3013591:12Field goal +3
10MINMIN 307171:32Missed field goal
11ARIARI 3310324:55Field goal +3
12MINMIN 305-51:34Punt
13ARIARI 276452:22Touchdown +7
14MINMIN 308703:20Touchdown +7
15ARIARI 305151:30Interception
16MINMIN 329553:39Field goal +3
17ARIARI 3017867:48Field goal +3
18MINMIN 3010622:07Touchdown +7
19ARIARI 30500:40Interception
20MINMIN 45100:33End of game

11 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 91 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kyler Murray31/452601210.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Conner17684.00-0.9
Kyler Murray7486.902.4
Trey Benson3206.700.5
Emari Demercado3124.00-0.2
Greg Dortch166.000.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Trey McBride121296028%4.4
Marvin Harrison51260128%1.1
Michael Wilson5755016%0.0
Elijah Higgins222305%1.0
James Conner341309%-1.4
Tip Reiman11902%0.9
Emari Demercado12305%-0.8
Greg Dortch23107%-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Mack Wilson612.001
Budda Baker320.000
Kyzir White411.000
Jalen Thompson310.000
Sean Murphy-Bunting220.000
Zaven Collins110.000
Roy Lopez110.001
Naquan Jones020.001
L.J. Collier202.000
Baron Browning200.000

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Sam Darnold21/312352051.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Sam Darnold4225.501.4
Aaron Jones5224.400.5
Cam Akers4225.50-0.5
Ty Chandler221.00-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Justin Jefferson7999030%6.7
Jordan Addison4654020%1.4
T.J. Hockenson3628020%0.7
Johnny Mundt222217%2.0
Jalen Nailor121807%-0.7
Brandon Powell11803%0.4
Aaron Jones346113%-5.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Blake Cashman820.000
Camryn Bynum730.000
Josh Metellus540.000
Harrison Smith430.000
Patrick Jones330.000
Harrison Phillips140.001
Byron Murphy410.013
Andrew Van Ginkel140.000
Shaquill Griffin400.011
Jonathan Greenard221.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Closing total
45.5
ARI moneyline
+154
MIN moneyline
-185

Vikings closed -3.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 45 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
ARI 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches
Jonathan Gannon vs Kevin O'Connell