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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:54 AM ET · 16 to play
2024 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 1, 2024 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
CardinalsArizona22
BY 1final margin
VikingsMinnesota23
Arizona Cardinals 22 at Minnesota Vikings 23. Final.
Vikings -3.5 no coverU 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 13
Minnesota Vikings 23, Cardinals 22 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:10, 4th and 5, on Justin Jefferson — 23.1 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:10 · 4th and 5
Justin Jefferson
Vikings
(2:10) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to ARI 21 for 12 yards (53-B.Browning) [54-X.Thomas].
Dome
Vikings closed -3.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Minnesota Vikings 23–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:10, Vikings +23.1% win probability on one snap.
23.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
John Parker RomoCardinalsQ3 13:31(13:31) 96-J.Romo 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.
13.9pts
Shaquill GriffinVikingsQ4 0:40(:40) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right intended for 18-M.Harrison INTERCEPTED by 1-S.Griffin [52-Ji.Ward] at MIN 45. 1-S.Griffin to MIN 45 for no gain (18-M.Harrison).
22.0pts
What separated them
Third down
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 13 on third down, against Vikings at 1 of 8 on third down.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Vikings won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Cardinals at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — 1 giveaway, against Cardinals at 2 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Vikings won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Cardinals170 of 182 plays carry both curves
(2:10) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to ARI 21 for 12 yards (53-B.Browning) [54-X.Thomas].
Swing +23.1 for VikingsExpected points +2.87 for VikingsModel and market agree here.play 168
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:10MIN +23% win prob(2:10) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to ARI 21 for 12 yards (53-B.Browning) [54-X.Thomas].
4th · 0:40ARI +22% win prob(:40) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right intended for 18-M.Harrison INTERCEPTED by 1-S.Griffin [52-Ji.Ward] at MIN 45. 1-S.Griffin to MIN 45 for no gain (18-M.Harrison).
3rd · 13:31ARI +14% win prob(13:31) 96-J.Romo 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.
2nd · 1:16MIN +14% win prob(1:16) 96-J.Romo 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.
1st · 1:24ARI +14% win prob(1:24) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 33-A.Jones to MIN 19 for 5 yards (53-B.Browning, 23-S.Murphy-Bunting). FUMBLES (23-S.Murphy-Bunting), RECOVERED by ARI-98-R.Lopez at MIN 19.
4th · 0:53ARI +11% win prob(:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 27 for -8 yards (58-J.Greenard). FUMBLES (58-J.Greenard), and recovers at ARI 27.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Aaron Jones's 5-yard touchdown catch with 1:18 left in the 4th put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:05Chad Ryland·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap A.Brewer+33–0
1st4:44John Parker Romo·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap J.McQuaide+33–3
2nd6:05Chad Ryland·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap A.Brewer+36–3
2nd1:16John Parker Romo·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap J.McQuaide+36–6
2nd0:02Chad Ryland·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap A.Brewer+39–6
3rd8:38Chad Ryland·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap A.Brewer+312–6
3rd1:24Johnny Mundt·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+719–13
4th11:11John Parker Romo·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap J.McQuaide+319–16
4th3:23Chad Ryland·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap A.Brewer+322–16
4th1:18Aaron Jones·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam DarnoldLead never changed again+722–23
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by categoryVikings
Cardinals5–4Vikings
406Total yards274
5.3Yards per play5.5
47%Success rate52%
38%Third-down rate13%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays5
23First downs17
1Sacks taken5
2Turnovers1
The read
Cardinals ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Cardinals: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.07Vikings: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.06Cardinals: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.08Vikings: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.00Cardinals: −0.00 expected points added per play
−0.02Vikings: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 76 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Vikings’s 50 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 5, Vikings 4.
NoteCardinals outgained Vikings 406-274 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 13Against their seasonTendencies
MIN's early-down pass rate, 75.6%, is past their previous high of 61.9% in week 7 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
2.7 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.2-swing turn from week 12.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
high through week 13Against their seasonOver Expected
MIN's pass rate over expected, +13.7 pts, is past their previous high of +9.6 pts in week 4 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 12.
50 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.4 points.
low through week 13Against their seasonFourth Down
ARI's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 20.0% in week 3 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 13.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 21.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 16 pts
leaned — got home · +8.5 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+1.30× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Vikings8.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.3 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−1.36× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
NoteMIN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 75.6%, 21.1 points above their season mean of 54.5% and 2.7 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Darnold pass+22% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:10) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to ARI 21 for 12 yards (53-B.Browning) [54-X.Thomas].
Q4 2:10 · Vikings · 4th & 5 at ARI 33 · gained 12 · +2.87 EP · +21.8% win probability
168 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 177. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 76 yards from the ARI 11 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
52%
Yards
679
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.0870%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.1884%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.0773%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR15+0.3020%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.5260%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.4150%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Cardinals3Vikings0
Field goal12 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Vikings 13
Cardinals3Vikings3
Field goal10 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Cardinals 19
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 44
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Fumble lost1 play
The period ended5 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
No good2 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Vikings 27
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 35 to the Vikings 41
Cardinals6Vikings3
Field goal14 plays, from the Cardinals 16 to the Vikings 13
Cardinals6Vikings6
Field goal10 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Cardinals 29
Cardinals9Vikings6
Field goal18 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Vikings 6
3rd quarter44 plays
No good8 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Cardinals 25
Cardinals12Vikings6
Field goal11 plays, from the Cardinals 33 to the Vikings 22
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Vikings 31
Cardinals18Vikings6
Cardinals19Vikings6
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cardinals 27 to the Vikings 15
Cardinals19Vikings12
Cardinals19Vikings13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Cardinals 4
The period ended4 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Cardinals 42
4th quarter52 plays
Intercepted2 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Cardinals19Vikings16
Field goal10 plays, from the Vikings 32 to the Cardinals 13
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Cardinals22Vikings16
Field goal19 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Vikings 4
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Cardinals22Vikings22
Cardinals22Vikings23
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Cardinals 5
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
The period ended8 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Cardinals 35
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
