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2024 Week 13 · Thu, Nov 28, 2024 · Ford Field

Chicago Bears

20

Detroit LionsWinner

23

DET -9.5 no coverU 47.5 ✓Dome

Detroit Lions 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:56, DET +28% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DET ↑CHI ↓
Q4 · 0:56CHI 20 — DET 23CHI ball · 4th & 14DET 86%

(:56) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right to 2-D.Moore. PENALTY on DET-29-K.Vildor, Defensive Pass Interference, 29 yards, enforced at CHI 46 - No Play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:56DET +28% win prob(:56) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right to 2-D.Moore. PENALTY on DET-29-K.Vildor, Defensive Pass Interference, 29 yards, enforced at CHI 46 - No Play.
  2. Q4 · 0:36CHI +17% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at DET 41 for -6 yards (99-Z.Smith).
  3. Q4 · 0:43CHI +11% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 13-K.Allen pushed ob at DET 13 for 12 yards (21-A.Robertson). PENALTY on CHI-76-T.Jenkins, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at DET 25 - No Play.
  4. Q4 · 0:06CHI +10% win prob(:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right to 15-R.Odunze.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:10DET Field goal

    (7:10) 39-J.Bates 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: CHI 0 — DET 3
  2. Q2 · 15:00DET Touchdown

    (15:00) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 0 — DET 10
  3. Q2 · 7:19DET Field goal

    (7:19) 39-J.Bates 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: CHI 0 — DET 13
  4. Q2 · 3:15DET Field goal

    (3:15) 39-J.Bates 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: CHI 0 — DET 16
  5. Q3 · 9:54CHI Touchdown

    (9:54) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 13-K.Allen for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 7 — DET 16
  6. Q3 · 2:46DET Touchdown

    (2:46) 72-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 7 — DET 23
  7. Q4 · 13:45CHI Touchdown

    (13:45) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 13-K.Allen for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: CHI 13 — DET 23
  8. Q4 · 5:42CHI Touchdown

    (5:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 20 — DET 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBearsLions
Offensive plays5969
Total yards301405 (edge)
Yards per play5.15.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.010.07 (edge)
Success rate39%46% (edge)
Dropback rate81%52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.010.03 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.100.12 (edge)
Third downs7/15 (edge)5/14
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)79 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1523 (edge)
Sacks taken52 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

20/39, 256 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

-1.3 expected points added · -8.3% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

21/34, 221 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.1 expected points added · -2.6% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

David MontgomeryRB

21 att, 88 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

Jahmyr GibbsRB

9 att, 87 yds, 0 TD

4.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

D.J. MooreWR

8/16 for 97 yds, 1 TD

44% of team targets · 1.0 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Keenan AllenWR

5/8 for 73 yds, 2 TD

22% of team targets · 6.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DETDET 3016587:54Field goal +3
2CHICHI 30551:38Punt
3DETDET 1011905:33Touchdown +7
4CHICHI 30562:14Punt
5DETDET 2611665:26Field goal +3
6CHICHI 30541:02Punt
7DETDET 319393:02Field goal +3
8CHICHI 305171:17Turnover on downs
9DETCHI 375260:59Fumble
10CHICHI 66210:55Turnover on downs
11CHICHI 2611745:13Touchdown +7
12DETDET 2213637:04Touchdown +7
13CHICHI 3010654:03Touchdown +6
14DETDET 306161:30Punt
15CHICHI 154-81:47Punt
16DET505391:41Missed field goal
17CHICHI 359653:06Touchdown +7
18DETDET 30582:05Punt
19CHICHI 112523:31End of game

8 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 90 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Caleb Williams20/39256305-1.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Caleb Williams4399.801.8
D'Andre Swift11393.50-1.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
D.J. Moore81697144%1.0
Keenan Allen5873222%6.8
D'Andre Swift233508%-0.6
Cole Kmet332608%0.4
Rome Odunze2625017%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kevin Byard550.001
Jonathan Owens160.001
Gervon Dexter341.000
T.J. Edwards600.000
Tremaine Edmunds320.000
Tyrique Stevenson320.001
Jack Sanborn220.500
Kyler Gordon310.001
Terell Smith400.001
Byron Cowart220.000

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff21/342212017.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
David Montgomery21884.20-1.4
Jahmyr Gibbs9879.704.4
Jameson Williams2189.000.5
Jared Goff111.000.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown5773023%1.5
Tim Patrick2348010%3.4
David Montgomery3336010%2.8
Jameson Williams5728023%0.1
Jahmyr Gibbs2417013%-2.8
Brock Wright111303%0.8
Sam LaPorta366219%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Brian Branch510.000
Khalil Dorsey410.001
Malcolm Rodriguez130.001
Kerby Joseph400.001
D.J. Reader222.000
Kindle Vildor300.000
Za'Darius Smith121.500
Jack Campbell200.000
Al-Quadin Muhammad111.001
Alim McNeill100.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DET -9.5
Closing total
47.5
CHI moneyline
+390
DET moneyline
-520

Lions closed -9.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 43 — under by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Alan Eck
Rest
CHI 4 days · DET 4 days
Coaches
Matt Eberflus vs Dan Campbell

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.