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Detroit Lions 23, Bears 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:56, 4th and 14, on Caleb Williams — 27.9 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:56 · 4th and 14
Caleb Williams
Bears
(:56) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right to 2-D.Moore. PENALTY on DET-29-K.Vildor, Defensive Pass Interference, 29 yards, enforced at CHI 46 - No Play.
Dome
Lions closed -9.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Detroit Lions 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:56, Bears +27.9% win probability on one snap.
27.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Keenan AllenLionsQ4 0:43(:43) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 13-K.Allen pushed ob at DET 13 for 12 yards (21-A.Robertson). PENALTY on CHI-76-T.Jenkins, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at DET 25 - No Play.
11.4pts
Caleb WilliamsLionsQ4 0:36(:36) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at DET 41 for -6 yards (99-Z.Smith).
17.4pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Lions won this one — +0.12 expected points per carry, against Bears at -0.10 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Lions won this one — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bears owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Lions at 1 giveaway.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Lions won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Bears at 7 chunk plays.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Bears164 of 174 plays carry both curves
(:56) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right to 2-D.Moore. PENALTY on DET-29-K.Vildor, Defensive Pass Interference, 29 yards, enforced at CHI 46 - No Play.
Swing −27.9 for LionsExpected points −3.81 for LionsModel and market agree here.play 168
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:56DET +28% win prob(:56) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right to 2-D.Moore. PENALTY on DET-29-K.Vildor, Defensive Pass Interference, 29 yards, enforced at CHI 46 - No Play.
4th · 0:36CHI +17% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at DET 41 for -6 yards (99-Z.Smith).
4th · 0:43CHI +11% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 13-K.Allen pushed ob at DET 13 for 12 yards (21-A.Robertson). PENALTY on CHI-76-T.Jenkins, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at DET 25 - No Play.
4th · 0:06CHI +10% win prob(:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right to 15-R.Odunze.
4th · 2:00CHI +9% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI 43 for -7 yards (sack split by 47-E.Turner and 99-Z.Smith).
4th · 3:14DET +8% win prob(3:14) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 2-D.Moore pushed ob at CHI 29 for 25 yards (30-K.Dorsey). DET-99-Z.Smith was injured during the play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jake Bates's 30-yard field goal with 7:10 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:10Jake Bates·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.HattenLead never changed again+30–3
2nd15:00Sam LaPorta·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+70–10
2nd7:19Jake Bates·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.Hatten+30–13
2nd3:15Jake Bates·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.Hatten+30–16
Lions ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bears, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.01Bears: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.07Lions: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.01Bears: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.03Lions: +0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Bears: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.12Lions: +0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 59 snaps at a 81% dropback rate against Lions’s 69 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Bears 3, Lions 5.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CHI's early-down pass rate, 78.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 13 — 2.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 69.2% in week 12.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
high through week 13Against their seasonOver Expected
CHI's pass rate over expected, +7.7 pts, is past their previous high of +4.0 pts in week 12 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
high through week 13Against their seasonTendencies
CHI's blitz rate sent, 41.7%, is past their previous high of 36.4% in week 4 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 12.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.3 points.
CHI's sack or hit rate turned over: 23.7% in week 12 against 11.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 12 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.2 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Lions18.8%
right on their number · +3.2 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
NoteCHI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 78.0%, 20.0 points above their season mean of 58.0% and 2.0 times their own 10.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
76Teven JenkinsT · Every snap100%67 snaps
79Matt PryorT · Every snap100%67 snaps
18Caleb WilliamsQB · Every snap100%67 snaps
70Braxton JonesT · Every snap100%67 snaps
85Cole KmetTE · Every snap99%66 snaps
65Coleman SheltonC · Every snap99%66 snaps
2DJ MooreWR · Full-time97%65 snaps
13Keenan AllenWR · Full-time96%64 snaps
15Rome OdunzeWR · Heavy rotation78%52 snaps
4D'Andre SwiftRB · Heavy rotation69%46 snaps
58Darnell WrightT · Heavy rotation55%37 snaps
75Larry BoromT · Rotational45%30 snaps
20Travis HomerRB · Rotational28%19 snaps
84Marcedes LewisTE · Situational22%15 snaps
80Collin JohnsonWR · Situational3%2 snaps
11DeAndre CarterWR · Situational3%2 snaps
23Roschon JohnsonRB · Situational3%2 snaps
14Gerald EverettTE · Situational3%2 snaps
68Doug KramerC · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Ryan BatesCAmeer SpeedCBDominique RobinsonDEElijah HicksFSKiran AmegadjieTTyler ScottWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Williams pass+35% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:56) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right to 2-D.Moore. PENALTY on DET-29-K.Vildor, Defensive Pass Interference, 29 yards, enforced at CHI 46 - No Play.
Q4 0:56 · Bears · 4th & 14 at CHI 46 · gained nothing · +3.81 EP · +35.1% win probability
162 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 169. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 90 yards from the DET 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
45%
Yards
706
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.0291%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.0455%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.1948%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.0521%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Bears0Lions3
Field goal16 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Bears 12
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 36
The period ended11 plays, from the Lions 10 to the Bears 14
2nd quarter57 plays
Bears0Lions9
Bears0Lions10
Touchdown2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 36
Bears0Lions13
Field goal12 plays, from the Lions 26 to the Bears 4
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 34
Bears0Lions16
Field goal9 plays, from the Lions 31 to the Bears 30
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 37
The period ended8 plays, from the Bears 37 to the Bears 19
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Bears 6 to the Bears 32
3rd quarter32 plays
Bears6Lions16
Bears7Lions16
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Lions 31
Bears7Lions22
Bears7Lions23
Touchdown13 plays, from the Lions 22 to the Bears 1
The period ended8 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Lions 15
4th quarter52 plays
Bears13Lions23
Touchdown4 plays, from the Lions 15 to the Lions 9
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 46
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 15 to the Bears 18
No good5 plays, from midfield to the Bears 26
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Bears19Lions23
Bears20Lions23
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Lions 31
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 39
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
The period ended19 plays, from the Bears 1 to the Lions 25
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Lions -9.5
Closing total
47.5
Bears moneyline
+390
Lions moneyline
-520
Lions closed -9.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 43 — under by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Alan Eck
Rest
Bears 4 days · Lions 4 days
Coaches
Matt Eberflus vs Dan Campbell
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 1:26DET +8% win prob(1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams scrambles up the middle to DET 44 for 13 yards (32-B.Branch). DET-99-Z.Smith was injured during the play. ** Injury Update: CHI-65-C.Shelton has returned to the game.
4th · 5:42DET +8% win prob(5:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
