For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:55 AM ET · 16 to play
2024 Week 13 · Mon, Dec 2, 2024 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
BrownsCleveland32
BY 9final margin
BroncosDenver41
Cleveland Browns 32 at Denver Broncos 41. Final.
Broncos -6.5 ✓O 41.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 13
Denver Broncos 41, Browns 32 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:59, 1st and 10, on Ja'Quan McMillian — 38.9 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:59 · 1st and 10
Ja'Quan McMillian
Broncos
(1:59) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short left intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 29-J.McMillian at CLE 44. 29-J.McMillian for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Broncos closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 9.
Denver Broncos 41–32. Biggest swing: Q4 1:59, Broncos +38.9% win probability on one snap.
38.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Nik BonittoBroncosQ2 1:52(1:52) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short left intended for 88-J.Akins INTERCEPTED by 15-N.Bonitto [99-Z.Allen] at DEN 29. 15-N.Bonitto for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
24.7pts
Nick ChubbBrownsQ4 9:00(9:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short left to 24-N.Chubb for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.4pts
What separated them
Red zone
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Broncos at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.12 expected points per carry.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.06 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.09 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.04 expected points per dropback.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Browns194 of 205 plays carry both curves
(1:59) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short left intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 29-J.McMillian at CLE 44. 29-J.McMillian for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +38.9 for BroncosExpected points +8.51 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 5 points higher than the market did.play 192
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:59CLE +39% win prob(1:59) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short left intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 29-J.McMillian at CLE 44. 29-J.McMillian for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:52CLE +25% win prob(1:52) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short left intended for 88-J.Akins INTERCEPTED by 15-N.Bonitto [99-Z.Allen] at DEN 29. 15-N.Bonitto for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 9:00DEN +18% win prob(9:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short left to 24-N.Chubb for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 10:12DEN +17% win prob(10:12) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep middle to 19-M.Mims for 93 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Tomlinson].
4th · 2:04DEN +14% win prob(2:04) 5-J.Winston pass short right to 8-E.Moore ran ob at CLE 42 for 14 yards.
2nd · 12:40CLE +13% win prob(12:40) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle intended for 16-T.Franklin INTERCEPTED by 0-G.Newsome (21-D.Ward) [95-M.Garrett] at CLE 33. 0-G.Newsome to CLE 31 for -2 yards (17-D.Vele).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Wil Lutz's 27-yard field goal with 2:57 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Browns ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Broncos, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.06Browns: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.07Broncos: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.04Browns: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.09Broncos: +0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Browns: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.03Broncos: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 85 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Broncos’s 59 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Browns 5, Broncos 5.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CLE's early-down pass rate turned over: 43.9% in week 12 against 68.3% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
63 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −13.0 vs their 18.6%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.56× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Broncos15.9%
right on their number · −3.5 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 63 dropbacks
NoteCLE's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 20.0%, 39.1 points below their season mean of 59.1% and 1.6 times their own 24.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Winston pass−34% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:59) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short left intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 29-J.McMillian at CLE 44. 29-J.McMillian for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 1:59 · Browns · 1st & 10 at CLE 42 · gained nothing · -8.51 EP · −33.9% win probability
192 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 205 plays across 29 drives, personnel groupings on 192 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 200. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 29 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 92 yards from the DEN 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
205 of 205 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
205
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
46%
Yards
954
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59+0.0978%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.3669%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23-0.4861%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.2140%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.5517%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Broncos0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Broncos0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Broncos0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
205 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
205 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 37
No good7 plays, from the Browns 10 to the Broncos 29
Browns0Broncos6
Browns0Broncos7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Broncos 37 to the Browns 1
Browns6Broncos7
Browns7Broncos7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Broncos 8
Punt5 plays
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter64 plays
Punt4 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Broncos 38 to the Browns 40
Browns10Broncos7
Field goal9 plays, from the Browns 31 to the Broncos 27
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 11 to the Browns 14
Browns10Broncos13
Browns10Broncos14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Broncos 33 to the Browns 1
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.7 seconds
Browns10Broncos20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Broncos 29
Browns10Broncos21
Browns16Broncos21
Browns17Broncos21
Touchdown17 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Broncos 4
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter53 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 49
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 12 to the Broncos 40
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 24 to the Browns 31
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Browns17Broncos27
Browns17Broncos28
Touchdown4 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Browns23Broncos28
Browns25Broncos28
Touchdown3 plays
Punt7 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 29 to the Browns 48
Browns25Broncos31
Field goal12 plays, from the Broncos 4 to the Browns 13
The period ended6 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 39
4th quarter47 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 40 to the Browns 41
Intercepted1 play
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.4 seconds
Browns31Broncos31
Browns32Broncos31
Touchdown11 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Broncos 5
Browns32Broncos34
Field goal13 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Browns 9
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Browns32Broncos40
Touchdown5 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 42
Browns32Broncos41
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Broncos 2
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Broncos -6.5
Closing total
41.5
Browns moneyline
+235
Broncos moneyline
-290
Broncos closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 9.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 73 — over by 31.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 34°F at kickoff; still at 1 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Browns 11 days · Broncos 8 days
Coaches
Kevin Stefanski vs Sean Payton
3rd · 10:01DEN +11% win prob(10:01) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass deep middle to 3-J.Jeudy for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:44CLE +10% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short left intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 55-C.Barton at DEN -3. 55-C.Barton to CLE 47 for 56 yards (24-N.Chubb).
