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2024 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 1, 2024 · TIAA Bank Stadium
Final
TexansHouston23
BY 3final margin
JaguarsJacksonville20
Houston Texans 23 at Jacksonville Jaguars 20. Final.
Texans -3.5 no coverU 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 13
Houston Texans 23, Jaguars 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q3 12:24, 3rd and 10, on Brian Thomas — 18.1 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 12:24 · 3rd and 10
Brian Thomas
Jaguars
(12:24) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas to HOU 13 for 56 yards (21-C.Bullock).
Texans closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Houston Texans 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 12:24, Jaguars +18.1% win probability on one snap.
18.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Parker WashingtonJaguarsQ1 6:05(6:05) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 11-P.Washington to JAX 45 for 30 yards (4-K.Lassiter). Penalty on HOU-96-D.Autry, Defensive Offside, declined.
8.4pts
Cam LittleJaguarsQ2 0:12(:12) 39-C.Little 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
8.0pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Texans won this one — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.12 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Texans won this one — no giveaways, against Jaguars at 1 giveaway.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Texans won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 6 chunk plays.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — +0.18 expected points per dropback, against Texans at +0.07 expected points per dropback.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Texans165 of 177 plays carry both curves
(12:24) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas to HOU 13 for 56 yards (21-C.Bullock).
Swing +18.1 for JaguarsExpected points +4.81 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 13 points higher than the market did.play 92
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 12:24JAX +18% win prob(12:24) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas to HOU 13 for 56 yards (21-C.Bullock).
1st · 6:05JAX +8% win prob(6:05) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 11-P.Washington to JAX 45 for 30 yards (4-K.Lassiter). Penalty on HOU-96-D.Autry, Defensive Offside, declined.
2nd · 0:12JAX +8% win prob(:12) 39-C.Little 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
4th · 3:35JAX +8% win prob(3:35) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:50JAX +8% win prob(1:50) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne up the middle to HOU 16 for 6 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o; 43-N.Hewitt).
2nd · 14:56JAX +7% win prob(14:56) 15-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
3rd · 8:50
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Joe Mixon's 7-yard rushing touchdown with 8:07 left in the 3rd put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd14:56Ka'imi Fairbairn·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Weeks+33–0
2nd6:29Ka'imi Fairbairn·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Weeks+36–0
2nd0:12Cam Little·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+36–3
3rd10:10Cam Little·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+36–6
3rd8:07Joe Mixon·7-yd TD run7-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+713–6
3rd1:20Ka'imi Fairbairn·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Weeks+316–6
4th7:56Parker Washington·22-yd TD catch22-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac Jones · two-point no good+623–12
4th3:35Brian Thomas·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac Jones · two-point good+823–20
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryJaguars
Texans4–4Jaguars
328Total yards375
5.7Yards per play5.4
40%Success rate41%
38%Third-down rate33%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
8Explosive plays6
19First downs20
2Sacks taken0
0Turnovers1
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Jaguars, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Texans: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.08Jaguars: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.07Texans: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.18Jaguars: +0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.09Texans: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.12Jaguars: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 58 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 69 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Texans 4, Jaguars 4.
NoteJaguars outgained Texans 375-328 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 13Against their seasonOver Expected
HOU's pass rate over expected, +10.8 pts, is past their previous high of +8.8 pts in week 11 — the highest of their 13 charted games through week 13.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
HOU's sack or hit rate, 6.4%, is past their previous low of 8.3% in week 1 — the lowest of their 13 charted games through week 13.
A 3.0-swing turn from week 12.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 18 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.5 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.47× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Jaguars7.9%
inside their normal wobble · −2.1 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteJAX's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 26.3%, 11.3 points above their season mean of 15.0% and 1.5 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
69Shaq MasonG · Every snap100%63 snaps
78Laremy TunsilT · Every snap100%63 snaps
71Tytus HowardT · Every snap100%63 snaps
70Juice ScruggsC · Every snap100%63 snaps
54Jarrett PattersonC · Every snap100%63 snaps
7C.J. StroudQB · Every snap100%63 snaps
28Joe MixonRB · Heavy rotation75%47 snaps
12Nico CollinsWR · Heavy rotation70%44 snaps
3Tank DellWR · Heavy rotation68%43 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Heavy rotation68%43 snaps
87Cade StoverTE · Heavy rotation59%37 snaps
8John Metchie IIIWR · Rotational49%31 snaps
2Robert WoodsWR · Rotational33%21 snaps
83Irv SmithTE · Rotational27%17 snaps
14Jared WayneWR · Rotational25%16 snaps
33Dare OgunbowaleRB · Situational14%9 snaps
31Dameon PierceRB · Situational11%7 snaps
Inactive · 7
Jerry HughesDEFoley FatukasiDTJalen PitreFSNick BroekerGJamal HillILBXavier HutchinsonWRSteven SimsWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Jones pass+19% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(12:24) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas to HOU 13 for 56 yards (21-C.Bullock).
Q3 12:24 · Jaguars · 3rd & 10 at JAX 31 · gained 56 · +4.81 EP · +18.7% win probability
163 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 84 yards from the JAX 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
41%
Yards
701
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.1268%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.0371%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.0162%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.0457%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Jaguars0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 22 to the Jaguars 29
Punt12 plays, from the Texans 17 to the Jaguars 37
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 16 to the Jaguars 47
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 16 to the Texans 33
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 21 to the Jaguars 27
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
The period ended4 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Jaguars 35
2nd quarter43 plays
Texans3Jaguars0
Field goal2 plays
Intercepted4 plays
Texans6Jaguars0
Field goal12 plays, from the Jaguars 44 to the Jaguars 6
Texans6Jaguars3
Field goal22 plays, from the Jaguars 32 to the Texans 10
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 37
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Texans6Jaguars6
Field goal10 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Texans 12
Texans12Jaguars6
Texans13Jaguars6
Touchdown7 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Jaguars 7
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jaguars 36
Texans16Jaguars6
Field goal10 plays, from the Texans 49 to the Jaguars 10
The period ended5 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jaguars 44
4th quarter53 plays
No good4 plays, from the Texans 42 to the Texans 37
Texans22Jaguars6
Texans23Jaguars6
Touchdown6 plays, from the Texans 45 to the Jaguars 22
Texans23Jaguars12
Touchdown14 plays, from the Jaguars 28 to the Texans 17
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 39
Texans23Jaguars18
Texans23Jaguars20
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jaguars 16 to the Texans 6
The period ended11 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Jaguars 42
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
