For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2024 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 1, 2024 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Houston TexansWinner

23

Jacksonville Jaguars

20

HOU -3.5 no coverU 44.5 ✓

Houston Texans 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 12:24, JAX +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3JAX ↑HOU ↓
Q3 · 12:24HOU 6 — JAX 3JAX ball · 3rd & 10HOU 74%

(12:24) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas to HOU 13 for 56 yards (21-C.Bullock).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 12:24JAX +18% win prob(12:24) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas to HOU 13 for 56 yards (21-C.Bullock).
  2. Q1 · 6:05JAX +8% win prob(6:05) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 11-P.Washington to JAX 45 for 30 yards (4-K.Lassiter). Penalty on HOU-96-D.Autry, Defensive Offside, declined.
  3. Q2 · 0:12JAX +8% win prob(:12) 39-C.Little 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
  4. Q4 · 3:35JAX +8% win prob(3:35) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 14:56HOU Field goal

    (14:56) 15-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: HOU 3 — JAX 0
  2. Q2 · 6:29HOU Field goal

    (6:29) 15-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: HOU 6 — JAX 0
  3. Q2 · 0:12JAX Field goal

    (:12) 39-C.Little 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: HOU 6 — JAX 3
  4. Q3 · 10:10JAX Field goal

    (10:10) 39-C.Little 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: HOU 6 — JAX 6
  5. Q3 · 8:07HOU Touchdown

    (8:07) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 13 — JAX 6
  6. Q3 · 1:20HOU Field goal

    (1:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: HOU 16 — JAX 6
  7. Q4 · 12:18HOU Touchdown

    (12:18) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 23 — JAX 6
  8. Q4 · 7:56JAX Touchdown

    (7:56) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 11-P.Washington for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-4-K.Lassiter, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

    Score after this play: HOU 23 — JAX 12
  9. Q4 · 3:35JAX Touchdown

    (3:35) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: HOU 23 — JAX 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTexansJaguars
Offensive plays5869
Total yards328375 (edge)
Yards per play5.7 (edge)5.4
Expected points added / play0.070.08 (edge)
Success rate40%41% (edge)
Dropback rate66%68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.070.18 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.09 (edge)-0.12
Third downs5/13 (edge)5/15
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps1920 (edge)
Sacks taken20 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Jaguars outgained Texans 375–328 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

22/34, 242 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.8 expected points added · -1.0% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Mac JonesQB

20/32, 235 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

14.3 expected points added · -1.8% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Joe MixonRB

20 att, 101 yds, 1 TD

1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

13 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

8/11 for 119 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Parker WashingtonWR

6/12 for 103 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 7.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1JAXJAX 22571:43Punt
2HOUHOU 1711335:48Punt
3JAXJAX 167312:48Punt
4HOUHOU 165171:47Punt
5JAXJAX 21460:57Punt
6HOUHOU 255402:06Field goal +3
7JAXJAX 244-11:34Interception
8HOUJAX 4411286:51Field goal +3
9JAXJAX 3215576:18Field goal +3
10HOUHOU 30200:08End of half
11HOUHOU 30571:30Punt
12JAXJAX 209733:24Field goal +3
13HOUHOU 307702:02Touchdown +7
14JAXJAX 305111:52Punt
15HOUHOU 4910414:56Field goal +3
16JAXJAX 308332:19Missed field goal
17HOUHOU 456551:46Touchdown +7
18JAXJAX 2814724:22Touchdown +6
19HOUHOU 30591:52Punt
20JAXJAX 1611862:26Touchdown +8
21HOUHOU 308283:31End of game

9 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 86 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud22/342421022.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Joe Mixon201015.011.8
C.J. Stroud571.40-1.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Nico Collins811119033%5.6
Dalton Schultz5761121%7.2
Tank Dell1423012%-3.1
Joe Mixon4618018%-2.0
John Metchie221606%0.4
Cade Stover11403%-0.0
Dameon Pierce11103%-0.4
Robert Woods01003%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Neville Hewitt540.000
Henry To'oTo'o350.000
Kamari Lassiter620.000
Eric Murray350.001
Jimmie Ward330.000
Azeez Al-Shaair320.000
Jeff Okudah200.000
Derek Stingley110.013
Mario Edwards020.001
Cade Stover100.000

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Mac Jones20/3223520014.3
Trevor Lawrence4/1041010-5.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne13463.50-2.4
Tank Bigsby7284.00-0.2
Brian Thomas11111.001.2
Mac Jones362.00-2.5
Trevor Lawrence166.000.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Parker Washington612103129%7.4
Brian Thomas41076124%0.3
Evan Engram7941021%0.5
Devin Duvernay2423010%2.8
Brenton Strange121405%-0.1
Travis Etienne331207%-0.3
Tank Bigsby11702%-0.6
Luke Farrell01002%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Darnell Savage700.000
Devin Lloyd330.001
Davon Hamilton320.000
Antonio Johnson500.000
Foyesade Oluokun310.002
Travon Walker131.000
Ventrell Miller220.000
Tyson Campbell300.000
Josh Hines-Allen211.000
Andre Cisco110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
HOU -3.5
Closing total
44.5
HOU moneyline
-192
JAX moneyline
+160

Texans closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 43 — under by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
HOU 7 days · JAX 14 days
Coaches
DeMeco Ryans vs Doug Pederson

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.