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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:55 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Colts159 of 172 plays carry both curves
Q4 · 0:12Colts 25 — Patriots 24IND ballNE 61%
Colts 39%Patriots 61%
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 5-A.Richardson rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Swing −32.2 for PatriotsExpected points −1.05 for PatriotsThe model had Patriots 4 points higher than the market did.play 164
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:12NE +32% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 5-A.Richardson rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
4th · 0:01IND +31% win prob(:01) 13-J.Slye 68 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
4th · 0:17NE +24% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short left to 14-A.Pierce for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:01IND +22% win prob(1:01) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle intended for 85-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Blackmon (44-Z.Franklin) at IND 0. 32-J.Blackmon to IND 17 for 17 yards (75-D.Jacobs).
4th · 8:48NE +19% win prob(8:48) (Shotgun) 4-A.Gibson left guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 4:07NE +10% win prob(4:07) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 81-A.Hooper for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:03
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Alec Pierce's 3-yard touchdown catch with 0:17 left in the 4th put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:15Joey Slye·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Cardona+30–3
1st5:07Jonathan Taylor·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Anthony Richardsonfrom Anthony Richardson+77–3
1st0:46Joey Slye·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Cardona+37–6
2nd12:54Joey Slye·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Cardona+37–9
4th0:17Alec Pierce·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Anthony Richardsonfrom Anthony Richardson · two-point goodLead never changed again+825–24
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryPatriots
Colts3–6Patriots
256Total yards424
4.4Yards per play6.4
53%Success rate53%
45%Third-down rate55%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays7
19First downs24
0Sacks taken4
2Turnovers1
The read
Patriots ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Colts, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Colts: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.18Patriots: +0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.03Colts: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.29Patriots: +0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.18Colts: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.03Patriots: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 58 snaps at a 43% dropback rate against Patriots’s 66 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Colts 4, Patriots 6.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 13Against their seasonFourth Down
IND's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 66.7% in week 1 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 13.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 14 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.3 points.
low through week 13Against their seasonOver Expected
IND's pass rate over expected, −20.1 pts, is past their previous low of −17.1 pts in week 3 — the lowest of their 13 charted games through week 13.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points.
IND's play-action rate turned over: 16.7% in week 12 against 40.0% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points.
NE's blitz rate sent turned over: 16.7% in week 12 against 48.0% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.1 points.
NE's play-action rate turned over: 8.5% in week 12 against 20.0% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 12 pts
right on their number · −2.4 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Patriots8.0%
right on their number · −2.2 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
NoteIND's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 58.3 points above their season mean of 41.7% and 2.1 times their own 27.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Joey Slye−47% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:01) 13-J.Slye 68 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Q4 0:01 · Patriots · 2nd & 1 at 50 · gained nothing · -0.65 EP · −46.7% win probability
157 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 80 yards from the IND 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
51%
Yards
679
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.1360%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR35+0.2226%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.2448%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21-0.1162%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Colts0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Colts0Patriots3
Field goal12 plays, from the Patriots 24 to the Colts 5
Colts6Patriots3
Colts7Patriots3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Colts 29 to the Patriots 7
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Colts7Patriots6
Field goal11 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Colts 2
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted3 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
Colts7Patriots9
Field goal4 plays, from the Colts 42 to the Colts 33
Colts13Patriots9
Colts14Patriots9
Touchdown11 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Patriots 3
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Colts14Patriots15
Colts14Patriots16
Touchdown10 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Colts 16
Punt5 plays
No good17 plays, from the Patriots 42 to the Colts 4
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter31 plays
Colts17Patriots16
Field goal14 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Patriots 7
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted14 plays, from the Patriots 26 to the Colts 7
The period ended3 plays, from the Colts 17 to the Colts 21
4th quarter54 plays
Punt3 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a run-pass option, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Colts17Patriots22
Colts17Patriots24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Patriots 46 to the Colts 6
Intercepted3 plays, from the Colts 32 to the Colts 35
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 48 to midfield
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Colts23Patriots24
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Colts25Patriots24
Touchdown25 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Patriots 2
The period ended7 plays, from the Patriots 30 to midfield
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Colts -2.5
Closing total
41.5
Colts moneyline
-135
Patriots moneyline
+114
Colts closed -2.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 49 — over by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 35°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Colts 7 days · Patriots 7 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs Jerod Mayo
IND +10% win prob
(:03) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep left intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 53-C.Elliss (48-J.Tavai) at IND 48. 53-C.Elliss to IND 42 for 6 yards (14-A.Pierce).
2nd · 0:20IND +10% win prob(:20) 13-J.Slye 25 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
