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2024 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 1, 2024 · Gillette Stadium

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

25

New England Patriots

24

IND -2.5 no coverO 41.5 ✓

Indianapolis Colts 25–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:12, NE +32% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NE ↑IND ↓
Q4 · 0:12IND 25 — NE 24IND ballNE 61%

TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 5-A.Richardson rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:12NE +32% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 5-A.Richardson rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
  2. Q4 · 0:01IND +31% win prob(:01) 13-J.Slye 68 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
  3. Q4 · 0:17NE +24% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short left to 14-A.Pierce for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q3 · 1:01IND +22% win prob(1:01) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle intended for 85-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Blackmon (44-Z.Franklin) at IND 0. 32-J.Blackmon to IND 17 for 17 yards (75-D.Jacobs).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:15NE Field goal

    (9:15) 13-J.Slye 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

    Score after this play: IND 0 — NE 3
  2. Q1 · 5:07IND Touchdown

    (5:07) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short right to 28-J.Taylor for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-C.Elliss]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 7 — NE 3
  3. Q1 · 0:46NE Field goal

    (:46) 13-J.Slye 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

    Score after this play: IND 7 — NE 6
  4. Q2 · 12:54NE Field goal

    (12:54) 13-J.Slye 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

    Score after this play: IND 7 — NE 9
  5. Q2 · 8:39IND Touchdown

    (8:39) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 14 — NE 9
  6. Q2 · 4:07NE Touchdown

    (4:07) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 81-A.Hooper for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 14 — NE 16
  7. Q3 · 7:29IND Field goal

    (7:29) 7-M.Gay 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 17 — NE 16
  8. Q4 · 8:48NE Touchdown

    (8:48) (Shotgun) 4-A.Gibson left guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: IND 17 — NE 24
  9. Q4 · 0:17IND Touchdown

    (:17) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short left to 14-A.Pierce for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: IND 25 — NE 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricColtsPatriots
Offensive plays5866
Total yards256424 (edge)
Yards per play4.46.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.090.18 (edge)
Success rate53% (edge)53%
Dropback rate43%61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.030.29 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.18 (edge)0.03
Third downs5/116/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)47 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1924 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)4
Turnovers21 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Drake MayeQB

24/30, 238 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

7.8 expected points added · +10.4% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Anthony RichardsonQB

12/24, 109 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-1.4 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

25 att, 96 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

18 att, 73 yds, 0 TD

-4.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Hunter HenryTE

7/9 for 75 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 1.3 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

5/7 for 42 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · -1.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1NENE 2412605:48Field goal +3
2INDIND 2910714:10Touchdown +7
3NENE 309774:19Field goal +3
4INDIND 303-10:43Interception
5NEIND 42462:11Field goal +3
6INDIND 3010414:13Touchdown +7
7NENE 3010704:34Touchdown +7
8INDIND 305-21:05Punt
9NENE 4210662:39Missed field goal
10INDIND 20100:18End of half
11INDIND 2514687:34Field goal +3
12NENE 2614676:33Interception
13INDIND 17481:39Punt
14NENE 4610615:31Touchdown +8
15INDIND 32330:44Interception
16NENE 484-32:25Punt
17INDIND 2020685:22Touchdown +8
18NENE 305200:12Missed field goal

9 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 77 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Anthony Richardson12/24109220-1.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor25963.800.9
Anthony Richardson9485.315.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Michael Pittman5742029%-1.5
Andrew Ogletree122208%1.0
Alec Pierce2616125%0.0
Mo Alie-Cox221508%2.9
Jonathan Taylor11714%1.6
Will Mallory11704%-0.7
Kylen Granson030013%-1.9
Adonai Mitchell02008%-2.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Zaire Franklin1021.501
E.J. Speed810.001
Nick Cross811.000
DeForest Buckner161.000
Julian Blackmon500.011
Jaylon Jones500.000
Grant Stuard310.000
Kwity Paye030.500
Dayo Odeyingbo120.000
Samuel Womack210.000

New England Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Drake Maye24/302381147.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Rhamondre Stevenson18734.10-4.8
Antonio Gibson7628.914.8
Drake Maye55911.803.7
Kendrick Bourne166.000.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Hunter Henry7975030%1.3
Austin Hooper4442113%4.8
Kayshon Boutte3641020%2.2
Kendrick Bourne3339010%3.6
Rhamondre Stevenson3321010%0.6
Demario Douglas4420013%0.8
Ja'Lynn Polk01003%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kyle Dugger430.001
Jabrill Peppers250.000
Christian Gonzalez510.011
Davon Godchaux140.000
Jahlani Tavai140.001
Anfernee Jennings130.000
Jaylinn Hawkins310.000
Christian Elliss310.011
Jonathan Jones110.000
Daniel Ekuale110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
IND -2.5
Closing total
41.5
IND moneyline
-135
NE moneyline
+114

Colts closed -2.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 49 — over by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
36°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
IND 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs Jerod Mayo