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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 1, 2024 · Gillette Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 13
It turned at Q4 0:12, on Anthony Richardson — 32.2 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Indianapolis Colts 25–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:12, Colts +32.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:12
Anthony Richardson
Colts
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 5-A.Richardson rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
32.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Colts won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Patriots at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Colts at 4 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — +0.29 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.03 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Colts at 2 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 5-A.Richardson rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Alec Pierce's 3-yard touchdown catch with 0:17 left in the 4th put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Alec Pierce3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Anthony Richardson · two-point goodLead never changed again+825–249 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Coltscategory by categoryPatriots
Patriots ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Colts, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 58 snaps at a 43% dropback rate against Patriots’s 66 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Colts 4, Patriots 6.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
IND's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 66.7% in week 1 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 13.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 14 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.3 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
IND's pass rate over expected, −20.1 pts, is past their previous low of −17.1 pts in week 3 — the lowest of their 13 charted games through week 13.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
IND's play-action rate turned over: 16.7% in week 12 against 40.0% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
NE's blitz rate sent turned over: 16.7% in week 12 against 48.0% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.1 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
NE's play-action rate turned over: 8.5% in week 12 against 20.0% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points. · +0.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 12 pts
Over Expected room →Colts-20.1 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −11.3 vs their -8.7 pts, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−1.43× that swing) · 57 snaps
Patriots0.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.3 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.63× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 17% to 86%
Tendencies room →Colts41.9%inside their normal wobble · −9.0 vs their 50.8%, and they swing ±13.0 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 43 early downs
Patriots55.6%right on their number · −0.8 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 54 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 53%
Tendencies room →Colts40.0%leaned — faked the run · +10.1 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+1.11× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Patriots20.0%inside their normal wobble · +3.0 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -54% to 118%
Fourth Down room →Colts100.0%off script — went for it · +58.3 vs their 41.7%, and they swing ±27.3 week to week (+2.13× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Patriots—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 32.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 69%
Tendencies room →Colts30.0%inside their normal wobble · +10.0 vs their 20.0%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+0.96× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Patriots48.0%inside their normal wobble · +12.8 vs their 35.2%, and they swing ±13.1 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 32%
Tendencies room →Colts10.0%right on their number · −2.4 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Patriots8.0%right on their number · −2.2 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
IND's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 58.3 points above their season mean of 41.7% and 2.1 times their own 27.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
24/30, 238 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
7.8 expected points added · +10.4% completion over expected
Passing · IND
12/24, 109 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
-1.4 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected
Receiving · IND
5/7 for 42 yds, 0 TD
29% of team targets · -1.5 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Antonio Gibson banked 7.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony RichardsonQB · Starter QB | 21.2 | −3.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 12/24, 109 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 9 car, 48 yd, 1 TD |
| Drake MayeQB · Starter QB | 19.4 | +1.2 | 99% | — | 0% | — | 24/30, 238 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 59 yd |
| Jonathan TaylorRB · Bell Cow Back | 17.3 | −3.7 | 89% | 76% | 4% | 1% | 25 car, 96 yd · 1/1, 7 yd, 1 TD |
| Hunter HenryTE · Alpha Receiver | 14.5 | −2.6 | 78% | 88% | 30% | 35% | 7/9, 75 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 14.2 | +7.2 | 50% | 40% | 13% | 16% | 4/4, 42 yd, 1 TD |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 12.4 | −2.9 | 78% | 83% | 10% | 1% | 18 car, 73 yd · 3/3, 21 yd |
| Antonio GibsonRB | 12.2 | +7.7 | 24% | 18% | 0% | — | 7 car, 62 yd, 1 TD |
| Alec PierceWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.6 | −1.6 | 71% | 84% | 25% | 34% | 2/6, 16 yd, 1 TD |
| Michael PittmanWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.2 | −1.2 | 92% | 88% | 29% | 12% | 5/7, 42 yd |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Featured Receiver | 9.1 | −1.9 | 99% | 100% | 20% | 27% | 3/6, 41 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.5 | +1.9 | 64% | 68% | 10% | 14% | 1 car, 6 yd · 3/3, 39 yd |
| Demario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | +0.4 | 63% | 73% | 13% | 5% | 4/4, 20 yd |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +0.8 | 58% | 48% | 8% | 3% | 2/2, 15 yd |
| Andrew OgletreeTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −0.2 | 52% | 32% | 8% | 12% | 1/2, 22 yd |
| Will MalloryTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kylen GransonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.3 | 52% | 64% | 13% | 28% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Tyler GoodsonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Trey SermonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Adonai MitchellWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.8 | 58% | 60% | 8% | 9% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Anthony GouldWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Ja'Lynn PolkWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 28% | 20% | 3% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:01) 13-J.Slye 68 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Q4 0:01 · Patriots · 2nd & 1 at 50 · gained nothing · -0.65 EP · −46.7% win probability
157 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 172 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 80 yards from the IND 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Colts0
Patriots3Colts6Patriots3Colts7Patriots3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
Colts7Patriots6How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Colts7Patriots9Colts13Patriots9Colts14Patriots9How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Colts14Patriots15Colts14Patriots16Colts17Patriots16How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a run-pass option, a man in motion.
Colts17Patriots22Colts17Patriots24How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Colts23Patriots24How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Colts25Patriots24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Colts at Patriots, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 12/24 | 109 | 2 | 2 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 25 | 96 | 3.8 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Anthony Richardson | 9 | 48 | 5.3 | 1 | +5.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 7 | 42 | 0 | 29% | −1.5 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaire Franklin | 10 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 |
| E.J. Speed | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Cross |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 24/30 | 238 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +7.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_13_IND_NE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Colts closed -2.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 49 — over by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
| 8% |
| +1.0 |
| Alec Pierce | 2 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 25% | +0.0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 8% | +2.9 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 4% | +1.6 |
| Will Mallory | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| Kylen Granson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13% | −1.9 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −2.7 |
| 8 |
| 1 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| DeForest Buckner | 1 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Blackmon | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaylon Jones | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Stuard | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kwity Paye | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Dayo Odeyingbo | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Samuel Womack | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 18 | 73 | 4.1 | 0 | −4.8 |
| Antonio Gibson | 7 | 62 | 8.9 | 1 | +4.8 |
| Drake Maye | 5 | 59 | 11.8 | 0 | +3.7 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 7 | 9 | 75 | 0 | 30% | +1.3 |
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 4 | 42 | 1 | 13% | +4.8 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 20% | +2.2 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 10% | +3.6 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 10% | +0.6 |
| Demario Douglas | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 13% | +0.8 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Dugger | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jabrill Peppers | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Gonzalez | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Davon Godchaux | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Anfernee Jennings | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Elliss | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jonathan Jones | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Ekuale | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
