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Los Angeles Chargers 17 at Atlanta Falcons 13. Final.
Chargers -1 ✓U 47 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 13
Los Angeles Chargers 17, Falcons 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 1:49, 4th and 5, on Tarheeb Still — 30.8 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 1:49 · 4th and 5
Tarheeb Still
Chargers
(1:49) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 1-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Still at LAC 39. 29-T.Still for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Chargers closed -1 and covered, winning by 4.
Los Angeles Chargers 17–13. Biggest swing: Q3 1:49, Chargers +30.8% win probability on one snap.
30.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ray-Ray McCloudFalconsQ3 1:33(1:33) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 34-R.McCloud to LAC 10 for 60 yards (29-T.Still; 24-M.Maye).
17.0pts
Derwin JamesChargersQ4 0:47(:47) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 3-D.James at LAC 24. 3-D.James to LAC 26 for 2 yards.
21.0pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Chargers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Falcons at 4 giveaways.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chargers at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 4 trips, against Chargers at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — -0.18 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.33 expected points per carry.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Chargers154 of 162 plays carry both curves
(1:49) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 1-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Still at LAC 39. 29-T.Still for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −30.8 for FalconsExpected points −7.60 for FalconsThe model had Falcons 5 points higher than the market did.play 111
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 1:49LAC +31% win prob(1:49) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 1-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Still at LAC 39. 29-T.Still for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:47LAC +21% win prob(:47) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 3-D.James at LAC 24. 3-D.James to LAC 26 for 2 yards.
3rd · 1:33ATL +17% win prob(1:33) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 34-R.McCloud to LAC 10 for 60 yards (29-T.Still; 24-M.Maye).
4th · 9:11LAC +16% win prob(9:11) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep middle intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 24-M.Maye at LAC -9. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 1:06LAC +14% win prob(1:06) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins sacked at LAC 43 for -10 yards (90-T.Tart). FUMBLES (90-T.Tart) [90-T.Tart], recovered by ATL-67-D.Dalman at LAC 44.
1st · 3:59ATL +12% win prob(3:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 15-L.McConkey to ATL 21 for 49 yards (22-C.Phillips; 24-A.Terrell). FUMBLES (22-C.Phillips), touched at ATL 22, recovered by LAC-12-D.Davis at ATL 20.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tarheeb Still's 61-yard touchdown with 1:49 left in the 3rd put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
1st1:43Cameron Dicker·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+33–7
2nd11:14Cameron Dicker·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+36–7
2nd1:02Cameron Dicker·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+39–7
3rd7:28Younghoe Koo·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+39–10
3rd1:49Tarheeb Still·61-yd defence TD61-yard touchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored it · two-point goodLead never changed again+817–10
3rd0:07Younghoe Koo·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+317–13
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryFalcons
Chargers2–6Falcons
192Total yards350
4.4Yards per play4.5
32%Success rate42%
27%Third-down rate21%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays4
11First downs20
5Sacks taken1
1Turnovers4
The read
Falcons ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.29Chargers: −0.29 expected points added per play
−0.24Falcons: −0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.26Chargers: −0.26 expected points added per play
−0.29Falcons: −0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.33Chargers: −0.33 expected points added per play
−0.18Falcons: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 44 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Falcons’s 77 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 2, Falcons 4.
NoteFalcons outgained Chargers 350-192 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 13Against their seasonTendencies
ATL's sack or hit rate, 26.7%, is past their previous high of 18.2% in week 7 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
LAC's blitz rate sent turned over: 45.8% in week 12 against 15.0% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.1 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Falcons26.7%
off script — got home · +15.2 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+2.09× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NoteATL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.7%, 15.2 points above their season mean of 11.5% and 2.1 times their own 7.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins pass−32% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(1:49) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 1-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Still at LAC 39. 29-T.Still for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 1:49 · Falcons · 4th & 5 at LAC 40 · gained nothing · -7.60 EP · −32.3% win probability
152 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 69 yards from the ATL 31 for a opp touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
-0.15
Success rate
43%
Yards
539
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR73-0.2553%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25-0.1488%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.1738%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Chargers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Chargers3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
No good14 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Chargers 17
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, two backs, one tight end and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 34
Chargers0Falcons6
Chargers0Falcons7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chargers 29 to the Chargers 2
Chargers3Falcons7
Field goal6 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Falcons 18
The period ended5 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Falcons 48
2nd quarter40 plays
Intercepted1 play
Chargers6Falcons7
Field goal7 plays, from the Chargers 34 to the Falcons 31
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Falcons 39
Chargers9Falcons7
Field goal18 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Falcons 16
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 30 to midfield
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter45 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Chargers 41
Chargers9Falcons10
Field goal13 plays, from the Falcons 11 to the Chargers 23
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Chargers 33
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Chargers15Falcons10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 31 to the Chargers 40
Chargers17Falcons10
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Chargers17Falcons13
Field goal7 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Chargers 8
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter40 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Chargers 33 to the Chargers 36
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.7 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Chargers 39 to the Chargers 9
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chargers 37
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
The period ended18 plays, from the Falcons 6 to the Chargers 33
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -1
Closing total
47
Chargers moneyline
-118
Falcons moneyline
-102
Chargers closed -1 and covered, winning by 4.
Total closed 47; the game landed 30 — under by 17.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Chargers 6 days · Falcons 14 days
Coaches
Jim Harbaugh vs Raheem Morris
4th · 14:09LAC +12% win prob(14:09) (Punt formation) 16-J.Scott pass short right to 84-S.Smartt pushed ob at LAC 39 for 3 yards (32-K.King).
4th · 2:00ATL +10% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 7-B.Robinson to ATL 42 for 2 yards (0-D.Henley). PENALTY on LAC-36-J.Taylor, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 40 - No Play.
