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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:57 AM ET · 16 to play
Los Angeles Rams 21 at New Orleans Saints 14. Final.
Rams -2.5 ✓U 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 13
Los Angeles Rams 21, Saints 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 11:58, 3rd and 5, on Marquez Valdes-Scantling — 14.3 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 11:58 · 3rd and 5
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Saints
(11:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 10-M.Valdes-Scantling for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO-64-N.Saldiveri was injured during the play.
Dome
Rams closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Los Angeles Rams 21–14. Biggest swing: Q4 11:58, Saints +14.3% win probability on one snap.
14.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Demarcus RobinsonRamsQ3 0:39(:39) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 15-D.Robinson pushed ob at NO 3 for 46 yards (5-W.Harris).
12.7pts
Derek CarrRamsQ4 1:13(1:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LA 18 for -9 yards (8-J.Verse). FUMBLES (8-J.Verse) [8-J.Verse], recovered by NO-10-M.Valdes-Scantling at LA 18. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson (8-J.Verse) [8-J.Verse].
14.2pts
What separated them
Red zone
Rams won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Saints at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams won this one — +0.24 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.11 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Rams won this one — no giveaways, against Saints at 1 giveaway.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Rams150 of 161 plays carry both curves
(11:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 10-M.Valdes-Scantling for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO-64-N.Saldiveri was injured during the play.
Swing +14.3 for SaintsExpected points +3.63 for SaintsThe model had Saints 3 points higher than the market did.play 126
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 11:58NO +14% win prob(11:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 10-M.Valdes-Scantling for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO-64-N.Saldiveri was injured during the play.
4th · 1:13LA +14% win prob(1:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LA 18 for -9 yards (8-J.Verse). FUMBLES (8-J.Verse) [8-J.Verse], recovered by NO-10-M.Valdes-Scantling at LA 18. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson (8-J.Verse) [8-J.Verse].
3rd · 0:39NO +13% win prob(:39) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 15-D.Robinson pushed ob at NO 3 for 46 yards (5-W.Harris).
4th · 8:57NO +13% win prob(8:57) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-P.Nacua for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:07NO +11% win prob(:07) 19-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.
3rd · 3:59LA +11% win prob(3:59) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at NO 49 for -9 yards (90-B.Bresee).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Puka Nacua's 7-yard touchdown catch with 8:57 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:53Blake Grupe·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder M.Hayball · snap Z.Wood+30–3
2nd0:07Blake Grupe·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder M.Hayball · snap Z.Wood+30–6
4th8:57Puka Nacua·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+721–14
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categorySaints
Rams7–2Saints
325Total yards329
6.1Yards per play4.8
49%Success rate39%
44%Third-down rate33%
3Red-zone touchdowns0
8Explosive plays7
21First downs19
2Sacks taken0
0Turnovers1
The read
Rams ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.13Rams: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.06Saints: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.01Rams: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.02Saints: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.24Rams: +0.24 expected points added per play
−0.11Saints: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 53 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Saints’s 69 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Rams 3, Saints 3.
NoteSaints outgained Rams 329-325 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 13Against their seasonFourth Down
NO's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 57.1% in week 7 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 13.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 13 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.1 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Saints23.1%
leaned — got home · +11.0 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+1.56× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
NoteNO's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 64.8 points above their season mean of 35.2% and 2.3 times their own 28.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass+21% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(11:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 10-M.Valdes-Scantling for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO-64-N.Saldiveri was injured during the play.
Q4 11:58 · Saints · 3rd & 5 at LA 28 · gained 28 · +3.63 EP · +21.1% win probability
148 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 82 yards from the LA 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
43%
Yards
651
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.2848%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR37-0.2365%
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10+0.3850%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR8+0.3663%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.130%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR4——
Rams1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Rams0Saints3
Field goal14 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Rams 32
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Rams 30
The period ended17 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Rams 12
2nd quarter44 plays
No good1 play
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Saints 25
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 42
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 12 to the Saints 48
Rams0Saints6
Field goal13 plays, from the Saints 13 to the Rams 36
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Rams6Saints6
Rams7Saints6
Touchdown13 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Saints 4
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 34
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Saints 40
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 28 to the Saints 49
The period ended4 plays, from the Rams 18 to the Saints 49
4th quarter44 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Rams13Saints6
Rams14Saints6
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Rams14Saints12
Rams14Saints14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Rams 24
How the play was built
A screen, a run-pass option, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.0 seconds
Rams20Saints14
Rams21Saints14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Rams 44 to the Saints 7
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
The period ended16 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Rams 9
The period ended5 plays, from the Rams 9 to the Rams 20
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
