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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:57 AM ET · 16 to play
2024 Week 13 · Fri, Nov 29, 2024 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Final
RaidersLas Vegas17
BY 2final margin
ChiefsKansas City19
Las Vegas Raiders 17 at Kansas City Chiefs 19. Final.
Chiefs -13.5 no coverU 42 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 13
Kansas City Chiefs 19, Raiders 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:15, 3rd and 3 — 29.2 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:15 · 3rd and 3
Unnamed on the sheet
Chiefs
(:15) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 38, touched at KC 38, RECOVERED by KC-32-N.Bolton at KC 37. Penalty on LV, Illegal Shift, declined.
Chiefs closed -13.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Kansas City Chiefs 19–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:15, Chiefs +29.2% win probability on one snap.
29.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tre TuckerRaidersQ4 15:00(15:00) 12-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 11-T.Tucker for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
21.1pts
Daniel CarlsonChiefsQ4 2:21(2:21) 2-D.Carlson 58 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
12.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — 11 chunk plays, against Chiefs at 6 chunk plays.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 7 of 16 on third down, against Raiders at 3 of 12 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — no giveaways, against Raiders at 1 giveaway.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Raiders176 of 187 plays carry both curves
(:15) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 38, touched at KC 38, RECOVERED by KC-32-N.Bolton at KC 37. Penalty on LV, Illegal Shift, declined.
Swing +29.2 for ChiefsExpected points +2.12 for ChiefsThe model had Raiders 15 points higher than the market did.play 185
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:15LV +29% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 38, touched at KC 38, RECOVERED by KC-32-N.Bolton at KC 37. Penalty on LV, Illegal Shift, declined.
4th · 15:00KC +21% win prob(15:00) 12-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 11-T.Tucker for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:21LV +12% win prob(2:21) 2-D.Carlson 58 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
4th · 0:54KC +11% win prob(:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short left to 16-J.Meyers to KC 39 for 11 yards (22-T.McDuffie).
4th · 13:31KC +9% win prob(13:31) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to KC 44 for 5 yards (7-T.Moehrig).
4th · 2:03LV +8% win prob(2:03) 14-M.Araiza punts 36 yards to LV 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 8-A.Abdullah.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matthew Wright's 32-yard field goal with 9:57 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:09Matthew Wright·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+30–3
2nd11:06Daniel Carlson·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+33–3
2nd2:19Justin Watson·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+73–10
3rd8:44Matthew Wright·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+33–13
3rd3:15Matthew Wright·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+33–16
4th9:57Matthew Wright·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.WinchesterLead never changed again+317–19
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Raiderscategory by categoryChiefs
Raiders6–3Chiefs
434Total yards330
7.0Yards per play5.1
44%Success rate34%
25%Third-down rate44%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
11Explosive plays6
20First downs16
3Sacks taken5
1Turnovers0
The read
Raiders ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chiefs, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Raiders: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.04Chiefs: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.25Raiders: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.02Chiefs: +0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.18Raiders: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.28Chiefs: −0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 62 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 65 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 3, Chiefs 5.
NoteRaiders outgained Chiefs 434-330 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
KC's pass rate over expected, +15.7 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 13 — 2.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +10.3 pts in week 10.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
high through week 13Against their seasonTendencies
KC's early-down pass rate, 73.5%, is past their previous high of 68.1% in week 10 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points.
low through week 13Against their seasonFourth Down
KC's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 14.3% in week 3 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 13.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.4 points.
LV's sack or hit rate turned over: 4.5% in week 12 against 23.5% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points.
LV's play-action rate turned over: 8.5% in week 12 against 35.1% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
LV's early-down pass rate turned over: 78.9% in week 12 against 57.1% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 23 pts
leaned — got home · +11.0 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.81× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Chiefs10.8%
inside their normal wobble · −7.0 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteLV's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.5%, 11.0 points above their season mean of 12.5% and 1.8 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
74Kolton MillerT · Every snap100%68 snaps
61Jordan MeredithG · Every snap100%68 snaps
66Dylan ParhamG · Every snap100%68 snaps
—Delmar GlazeT · Every snap100%68 snaps
58Jackson Powers-JohnsonG · Every snap100%68 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.O'Connell FUMBLES−43% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:15) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 38, touched at KC 38, RECOVERED by KC-32-N.Bolton at KC 37. Penalty on LV, Illegal Shift, declined.
Q4 0:15 · Raiders · 3rd & 3 at KC 32 · gained nothing · -2.12 EP · −42.9% win probability
174 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 182. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 83 yards from the LV 8 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
38%
Yards
763
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR30-0.0470%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.2662%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.0189%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25+0.4564%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.6740%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Raiders0Chiefs3
Field goal15 plays, from the Chiefs 27 to the Raiders 7
Punt9 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 44
Punt13 plays, from the Chiefs 23 to the Raiders 27
The period ended5 plays, from the Raiders 8 to the Raiders 27
2nd quarter45 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Raiders3Chiefs3
Field goal7 plays, from the Raiders 28 to the Chiefs 4
Punt5 plays
No good8 plays, from the Raiders 45 to the Chiefs 37
Raiders3Chiefs9
Raiders3Chiefs10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 47 to the Raiders 6
The period ended9 plays, from the Raiders 18 to the Raiders 47
No good6 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Raiders 41
3rd quarter45 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chiefs 30
Raiders3Chiefs13
Field goal7 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Raiders 13
No good10 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Chiefs 22
Raiders3Chiefs16
Field goal7 plays, from the Chiefs 45 to the Raiders 17
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Raiders9Chiefs16
Raiders10Chiefs16
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chiefs 26 to the Chiefs 23
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Chiefs 34
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter54 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Raiders16Chiefs16
Raiders17Chiefs16
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Raiders17Chiefs19
Field goal15 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Raiders 5
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 13 to the Raiders 28
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 32
How the play was built
A screen, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Raiders 32 to the Chiefs 39
The period ended7 plays, from the Chiefs 48 to the Raiders 44
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxFive defenders
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Raiders 8 to the Chiefs 32
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
