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2024 Week 13 · Fri, Nov 29, 2024 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Las Vegas Raiders

17

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

19

KC -13.5 no coverU 42 ✓

Kansas City Chiefs 19–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:15, LV +29% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3KCLV
Q4 · 0:15LV 17KC 19LV ball · 3rd & 3KC 68%

(:15) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 38, touched at KC 38, RECOVERED by KC-32-N.Bolton at KC 37. Penalty on LV, Illegal Shift, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:15LV +29% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 38, touched at KC 38, RECOVERED by KC-32-N.Bolton at KC 37. Penalty on LV, Illegal Shift, declined.
  2. Q4 · 15:00KC +21% win prob(15:00) 12-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 11-T.Tucker for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 2:21LV +12% win prob(2:21) 2-D.Carlson 58 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
  4. Q4 · 0:54KC +11% win prob(:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short left to 16-J.Meyers to KC 39 for 11 yards (22-T.McDuffie).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:09KC Field goal

    (10:09) 49-M.Wright 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: LV 0KC 3
  2. Q2 · 11:06LV Field goal

    (11:06) 2-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: LV 3KC 3
  3. Q2 · 2:19KC Touchdown

    (2:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 84-Ju.Watson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [44-K.Chaisson]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 3KC 10
  4. Q3 · 8:44KC Field goal

    (8:44) 49-M.Wright 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: LV 3KC 13
  5. Q3 · 3:15KC Field goal

    (3:15) 49-M.Wright 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: LV 3KC 16
  6. Q3 · 1:50LV Touchdown

    (1:50) 12-A.O'Connell pass deep right to 89-B.Bowers for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 10KC 16
  7. Q4 · 15:00LV Touchdown

    (15:00) 12-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 11-T.Tucker for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 17KC 16
  8. Q4 · 9:57KC Field goal

    (9:57) 49-M.Wright 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: LV 17KC 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRaidersChiefs
Offensive plays6265
Total yards434 (edge)330
Yards per play7.0 (edge)5.1
Expected points added / play0.08 (edge)-0.04
Success rate44% (edge)34%
Dropback rate60%78%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.25 (edge)0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.18 (edge)-0.28
Third downs3/127/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)11 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps20 (edge)16
Sacks taken3 (edge)5
Turnovers10 (edge)

Raiders outgained Chiefs 434–330 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Aidan O'ConnellQB

23/35, 340 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.2 expected points added · -1.6% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

26/46, 306 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

1.6 expected points added · -7.4% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Sincere McCormickRB

12 att, 64 yds, 0 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

7 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Brock BowersTE

10/14 for 140 yds, 1 TD

41% of team targets · 8.5 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Jakobi MeyersWR

6/11 for 97 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1KCKC 2714464:54Field goal +3
2LVLV 307213:37Punt
3KCKC 2310604:06Punt
4LVLV 810886:20Field goal +3
5KCKC 245-62:08Punt
6LVLV 457223:00Missed field goal
7KCKC 478533:41Touchdown +7
8LVLV 187271:14Punt
9KCKC 215381:00Missed field goal
10LVLV 259453:15Turnover on downs
11KCKC 307473:05Field goal +3
12LVLV 309284:12Missed field goal
13KCKC 457381:17Field goal +3
14LVKC 264361:31Touchdown +7
15KCKC 305-11:35Punt
16LVLV 313690:13Touchdown +7
17KCKC 3012404:59Field goal +3
18LVLV 137153:07Punt
19KCKC 25471:31Punt
20LVLV 328282:58Missed field goal
21KCKC 48480:21Punt
22LVLV 87551:45Fumble
23KCKC 37100:11End of game

8 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 88 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aidan O'Connell23/353402039.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Sincere McCormick12645.300.8
Ameer Abdullah10393.90-4.0
Tre Tucker11111.000.5
Brock Bowers122.000.5
Aidan O'Connell100.00-2.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Brock Bowers1014140141%8.5
Jakobi Meyers61197032%1.6
Tre Tucker115813%5.1
D.J. Turner112503%2.3
Ameer Abdullah221406%0.1
Michael Mayer12506%-1.0
Sincere McCormick22106%-0.6
Terrace Marshall01003%-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Robert Spillane620.000
Adam Butler240.500
Isaiah Pola-Mao410.000
Decamerion Richardson500.000
Maxx Crosby311.000
Trevon Moehrig210.000
Divine Deablo210.000
Jack Jones300.001
Jonah Laulu030.001
K'Lavon Chaisson121.500

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Patrick Mahomes26/463061051.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Isiah Pacheco7446.30-0.8
Kareem Hunt7152.10-3.1
Patrick Mahomes242.00-0.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DeAndre Hopkins4990020%0.5
Travis Kelce71368029%3.0
Noah Gray4658013%2.3
Xavier Worthy5754016%3.9
Samaje Perine111502%-0.7
JuJu Smith-Schuster111002%0.7
Justin Watson13617%0.9
Isiah Pacheco11502%-0.1
Kareem Hunt24009%-2.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nick Bolton710.000
Chamarri Conner610.000
Bryan Cook420.000
Chris Jones332.000
Drue Tranquill320.002
Justin Reid320.002
Michael Danna130.000
Trent McDuffie400.000
Leo Chenal400.000
Nazeeh Johnson120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -13.5
Closing total
42
LV moneyline
+550
KC moneyline
-800

Chiefs closed -13.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 42; the game landed 36 — under by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
37°F, wind 5 mph
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
LV 5 days · KC 5 days
Coaches
Antonio Pierce vs Andy Reid

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.