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2024 Week 13 · Thu, Nov 28, 2024 · Lambeau Field

Miami Dolphins

17

Green Bay PackersWinner

30

GB -3.5 ✓U 47.5 ✓27°F

Green Bay Packers 30–17. Biggest swing: Q1 13:40, GB +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3GB ↑MIA ↓
Q1 · 13:40MIA 0 — GB 0GB ball · 4th & 14GB 51%

(13:40) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to MIA 13, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-M.Washington MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-22-R.Rochell at MIA 9.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 13:40GB +23% win prob(13:40) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to MIA 13, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-M.Washington MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-22-R.Rochell at MIA 9.
  2. Q1 · 13:45MIA +6% win prob(13:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at GB 32 for -10 yards (92-Z.Sieler). FUMBLES (92-Z.Sieler) [92-Z.Sieler], RECOVERED by MIA-93-C.Campbell at GB 35. 93-C.Campbell to GB 33 for 2 yards (74-E.Jenkins). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 85-T.Kraft [92-Z.Sieler].
  3. Q1 · 15:00GB +5% win prob7-J.Sanders kicks 62 yards from MIA 35 to GB 3. 25-K.Nixon to GB 46 for 43 yards (7-J.Sanders). GB-26-C.Ballentine was injured during the play.
  4. Q2 · 4:21MIA +4% win prob(4:21) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 27 for -2 yards (90-L.Van Ness).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 12:05GB Touchdown

    (12:05) 10-J.Love pass short right to 11-J.Reed for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-C.Campbell]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 0 — GB 7
  2. Q1 · 0:59GB Touchdown

    (:59) 8-J.Jacobs left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 0 — GB 14
  3. Q2 · 8:47MIA Field goal

    (8:47) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: MIA 3 — GB 14
  4. Q2 · 1:42GB Touchdown

    (1:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 11-J.Reed for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 3 — GB 21
  5. Q2 · 0:03GB Field goal

    (:03) 17-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: MIA 3 — GB 24
  6. Q3 · 7:46GB Field goal

    (7:46) 17-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: MIA 3 — GB 27
  7. Q3 · 2:48MIA Touchdown

    (2:48) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 28-D.Achane for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: MIA 11 — GB 27
  8. Q4 · 5:06GB Field goal

    (5:06) 17-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: MIA 11 — GB 30
  9. Q4 · 3:08MIA Touchdown

    (3:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: MIA 17 — GB 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricDolphinsPackers
Offensive plays6753
Total yards377388 (edge)
Yards per play5.67.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.080.21 (edge)
Success rate51% (edge)47%
Dropback rate81%53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.220.45 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.50-0.06 (edge)
Third downs4/145/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)47 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps24 (edge)18
Sacks taken50 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

37/46, 365 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

11.9 expected points added · +8.4% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

21/28, 274 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

12.7 expected points added · +7.0% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Josh JacobsRB

19 att, 43 yds, 1 TD

-6.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Raheem MostertRB

5 att, 19 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Jonnu SmithTE

10/11 for 113 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Tyreek HillWR

6/9 for 83 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1GBGB 46511:30Fumble
2GBMIA 9491:30Touchdown +7
3MIAMIA 307174:07Punt
4GBGB 2413766:58Touchdown +7
5MIAMIA 3013557:11Field goal +3
6GBGB 306262:11Punt
7MIAMIA 65173:30Punt
8GBGB 387671:27Touchdown +7
9MIAMIA 309321:14Turnover on downs
10GBGB 394340:22Field goal +3
11MIAMIA 23572:08Punt
12GBGB 228725:10Field goal +3
13MIAMIA 3010824:59Touchdown +8
14GBGB 306172:09Punt
15MIAMIA 1812706:01Turnover on downs
16GBGB 79874:31Defensive touchdown +3
17MIAMIA 339671:58Touchdown +6
18GBMIA 495-11:08Punt
19MIAMIA 207301:56End of game

9 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 87 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a defensive touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa37/4636520511.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Raheem Mostert5193.80-2.3
Devon Achane7142.00-1.6
Tua Tagovailoa263.00-2.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jonnu Smith1011113024%7.8
Tyreek Hill6983120%5.2
Devon Achane8956120%2.3
Jaylen Waddle445309%6.6
Raheem Mostert231507%-1.1
Alec Ingold221504%0.9
Odell Beckham12904%0.2
Malik Washington24809%-1.6
Durham Smythe11802%-0.0
Julian Hill11502%0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tyrel Dodson550.000
Jordan Poyer270.000
Jordyn Brooks440.000
Jevon Holland420.000
Emmanuel Ogbah140.000
Quinton Bell400.000
Storm Duck310.000
Zach Sieler130.000
Cam Smith210.000
Calais Campbell110.000

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jordan Love21/2827420012.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Jacobs19432.31-6.0
Christopher Brooks3289.301.4
Jayden Reed12323.001.3
Emanuel Wilson22010.001.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tucker Kraft6778025%4.9
Josh Jacobs4474014%3.7
Christian Watson2467014%4.5
Dontayvion Wicks4530018%-0.4
Jayden Reed3624221%1.2
Christopher Brooks22107%-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Isaiah McDuffie730.001
Xavier McKinney720.000
Quay Walker441.000
Evan Williams340.000
Keisean Nixon500.001
Kingsley Enagbare311.000
Javon Bullard310.000
Eric Wilson220.000
Zayne Anderson200.000
Eric Stokes200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
GB -3.5
Closing total
47.5
MIA moneyline
+145
GB moneyline
-175

Packers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 13.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 47 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
27°F, wind 10 mph
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
MIA 4 days · GB 4 days
Coaches
Mike McDaniel vs Matt LaFleur