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Green Bay Packers 30, Dolphins 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 13:40, 4th and 14 — 22.6 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:40 · 4th and 14
Unnamed on the sheet
Packers
(13:40) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to MIA 13, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-M.Washington MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-22-R.Rochell at MIA 9.
27°F
Packers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 13.
Green Bay Packers 30–17. Biggest swing: Q1 13:40, Packers +22.6% win probability on one snap.
22.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetPackersQ1 15:007-J.Sanders kicks 62 yards from MIA 35 to GB 3. 25-K.Nixon to GB 46 for 43 yards (7-J.Sanders). GB-26-C.Ballentine was injured during the play.
4.7pts
Jordan LoveDolphinsQ1 13:45(13:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at GB 32 for -10 yards (92-Z.Sieler). FUMBLES (92-Z.Sieler) [92-Z.Sieler], RECOVERED by MIA-93-C.Campbell at GB 35. 93-C.Campbell to GB 33 for 2 yards (74-E.Jenkins). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 85-T.Kraft [92-Z.Sieler].
5.7pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Packers won this one — -0.06 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.50 expected points per carry.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Packers at 2 giveaways.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 4 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers won this one — 5 of 11 on third down, against Dolphins at 4 of 14 on third down.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Dolphins161 of 174 plays carry both curves
(13:40) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to MIA 13, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-M.Washington MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-22-R.Rochell at MIA 9.
Swing +22.6 for PackersExpected points +5.97 for PackersThe model had Dolphins 2 points higher than the market did.play 7
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:40GB +23% win prob(13:40) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to MIA 13, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-M.Washington MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-22-R.Rochell at MIA 9.
1st · 13:45MIA +6% win prob(13:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at GB 32 for -10 yards (92-Z.Sieler). FUMBLES (92-Z.Sieler) [92-Z.Sieler], RECOVERED by MIA-93-C.Campbell at GB 35. 93-C.Campbell to GB 33 for 2 yards (74-E.Jenkins). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 85-T.Kraft [92-Z.Sieler].
1st · 15:00GB +5% win prob7-J.Sanders kicks 62 yards from MIA 35 to GB 3. 25-K.Nixon to GB 46 for 43 yards (7-J.Sanders). GB-26-C.Ballentine was injured during the play.
2nd · 4:21MIA +4% win prob(4:21) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 27 for -2 yards (90-L.Van Ness).
1st · 9:21MIA +4% win prob(9:21) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa up the middle to MIA 39 for -3 yards (90-L.Van Ness). PENALTY on MIA-9-J.Smith, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 39.
1st · 14:15MIA +4% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jayden Reed's 3-yard touchdown catch with 12:05 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:05Jayden Reed·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan LoveLead never changed again+70–7
2nd8:47Jason Sanders·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap Z.Triner+33–14
2nd1:42Jayden Reed·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+73–21
2nd0:03Brandon McManus·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+33–24
3rd7:46Brandon McManus·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+33–27
3rd2:48Devon Achane·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa · two-point good+811–27
4th5:06Brandon McManus·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+311–30
4th3:08Tyreek Hill·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa · two-point no good+617–30
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Dolphinscategory by categoryPackers
Dolphins3–6Packers
377Total yards388
5.6Yards per play7.3
51%Success rate47%
29%Third-down rate45%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
4Explosive plays7
24First downs18
5Sacks taken0
0Turnovers2
The read
Packers ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Dolphins: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.21Packers: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.22Dolphins: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.45Packers: +0.45 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.50Dolphins: −0.50 expected points added per play
−0.06Packers: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 67 snaps at a 81% dropback rate against Packers’s 53 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 4, Packers 5.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 13Against their seasonFourth Down
MIA's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 75.0% in week 2 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 13.
A 3.5-swing turn from week 12.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.3 points.
high through week 13Against their seasonTendencies
MIA's early-down pass rate, 76.1%, is past their previous high of 68.3% in week 3 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points.
high through week 13Against their seasonTendencies
GB's play-action rate, 42.9%, is past their previous high of 35.0% in week 11 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 24 pts
right on their number · −1.9 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Packers11.1%
right on their number · −2.4 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
NoteMIA's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 56.5 points above their season mean of 43.5% and 2.0 times their own 28.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Whelan punts+20% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:40) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to MIA 13, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-M.Washington MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-22-R.Rochell at MIA 9.
Q1 13:40 · Packers · 4th & 14 at GB 42 · gained nothing · +5.97 EP · +19.6% win probability
159 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 92 yards from the GB 7 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
+0.16
Success rate
48%
Yards
765
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.2261%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.3394%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16+0.3663%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.0040%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.3667%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.4529%
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-1.4540%
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 46 to the Packers 47
Dolphins0Packers6
Dolphins0Packers7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Dolphins 9 to the Dolphins 3
Punt10 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 48
Dolphins0Packers13
Dolphins0Packers14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Packers 24 to the Dolphins 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 41
2nd quarter54 plays
Dolphins3Packers14
Field goal12 plays, from the Dolphins 43 to the Packers 9
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Dolphins 44
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 6 to the Dolphins 29
Dolphins3Packers20
Dolphins3Packers21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Packers 38 to the Dolphins 12
The period ended1 play
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Packers 38
Dolphins3Packers24
Field goal7 plays, from the Packers 39 to the Dolphins 27
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Dolphins 30
Dolphins3Packers27
Field goal8 plays, from the Packers 22 to the Dolphins 6
Dolphins9Packers27
Dolphins11Packers27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Packers 14
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Packers 49
The period ended3 plays, from the Dolphins 18 to the Dolphins 31
4th quarter49 plays
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Dolphins 34 to the Packers 1
Dolphins11Packers30
Field goal11 plays, from the Packers 7 to the Dolphins 4
Dolphins17Packers30
Touchdown9 plays, from the Dolphins 33 to the Packers 12
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 49 to the Dolphins 47
The period ended10 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Dolphins 37
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
