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Dallas Cowboys 27, Giants 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 11:37, 1st and 10, on DeMarvion Overshown — 24.7 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 11:37 · 1st and 10
DeMarvion Overshown
Cowboys
(11:37) 2-D.Lock pass short left intended for 26-D.Singletary INTERCEPTED by 13-D.Overshown at NYG 23. 13-D.Overshown for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Cowboys closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Dallas Cowboys 27–20. Biggest swing: Q2 11:37, Cowboys +24.7% win probability on one snap.
24.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Drew LockGiantsQ1 3:28(3:28) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock scrambles up the middle for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock scrambles up the middle pushed ob at DAL 1 for 28 yards (31-J.Butler).
11.2pts
Drew LockCowboysQ3 13:45(13:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-D.Lock sacked at NYG 36 for -2 yards (50-E.Kendricks). FUMBLES (50-E.Kendricks) [55-C.Lawson], RECOVERED by DAL-13-D.Overshown at NYG 38.
12.3pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Cowboys won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Giants at 2 chunk plays.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Cowboys at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Cowboys won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Giants at 3 of 12 on third down.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Giants owned this one and still lost it — -0.01 expected points per carry, against Cowboys at -0.23 expected points per carry.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Giants177 of 186 plays carry both curves
(11:37) 2-D.Lock pass short left intended for 26-D.Singletary INTERCEPTED by 13-D.Overshown at NYG 23. 13-D.Overshown for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +24.7 for CowboysExpected points +9.03 for CowboysThe model had Giants 12 points higher than the market did.play 46
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 11:37NYG +25% win prob(11:37) 2-D.Lock pass short left intended for 26-D.Singletary INTERCEPTED by 13-D.Overshown at NYG 23. 13-D.Overshown for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 13:45NYG +12% win prob(13:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-D.Lock sacked at NYG 36 for -2 yards (50-E.Kendricks). FUMBLES (50-E.Kendricks) [55-C.Lawson], RECOVERED by DAL-13-D.Overshown at NYG 38.
1st · 3:28DAL +11% win prob(3:28) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock scrambles up the middle for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock scrambles up the middle pushed ob at DAL 1 for 28 yards (31-J.Butler).
1st · 6:47DAL +8% win prob(6:47) 29-T.Tracy left guard to DAL 44 for 6 yards (28-M.Hooker; 26-D.Bland).
2nd · 7:21NYG +6% win prob(7:21) 79-M.Waletzko reported in as eligible. 40-H.Luepke right guard to DAL 44 for no gain (98-D.Davidson).
2nd · 0:33NYG +6% win prob(:33) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock sacked at NYG 29 for -11 yards (55-C.Lawson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
DeMarvion Overshown's 23-yard touchdown with 11:37 left in the 2nd put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:46Brandon Aubrey·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+30–3
Cowboys ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.23Giants: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.14Cowboys: −0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.32Giants: −0.32 expected points added per play
−0.08Cowboys: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Giants: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.23Cowboys: −0.23 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 59 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 66 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Giants 2, Cowboys 4.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DAL's sack or hit rate, 31.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 13 — 5.0 points clear of the next team along.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYG's play-action rate, 7.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 13 — 2.7 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 12.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.8 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Cowboys31.7%
leaned — got home · +15.5 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+1.73× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteDAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 31.7%, 15.5 points above their season mean of 16.2% and 1.7 times their own 8.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
76Jon RunyanG · Every snap100%63 snaps
70Chris HubbardT · Every snap100%63 snaps
74Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%63 snaps
73Evan NealT · Every snap100%63 snaps
61John Michael SchmitzC · Every snap100%63 snaps
2Drew LockQB · Every snap100%63 snaps
1Malik NabersWR · Full-time95%60 snaps
84Theo JohnsonTE · Full-time89%56 snaps
17Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation76%48 snaps
29Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · Heavy rotation73%46 snaps
86Darius SlaytonWR · Heavy rotation68%43 snaps
85Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational33%21 snaps
13Jalin HyattWR · Rotational29%18 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Situational21%13 snaps
82Daniel BellingerTE · Situational6%4 snaps
20Eric GrayRB · Situational6%4 snaps
87Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR · Situational2%1 snap
75Joshua EzeuduG · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Tre Hawkins IIICBDeonte BanksCBAnthony Johnson Jr.FSJake KubasGTommy DeVitoQBJermaine EluemunorTGreg DulcichTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tim BoyleQB
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
56Cooper BeebeC · Every snap100%76 snaps
73Tyler SmithG · Every snap100%76 snaps
67Brock HoffmanC · Every snap100%76 snaps
78Terence SteeleT · Every snap100%76 snaps
10Cooper RushQB · Every snap100%76 snaps
71Chuma EdogaT · Full-time82%62 snaps
1Jalen TolbertWR · Heavy rotation72%55 snaps
23Rico DowdleRB · Heavy rotation70%53 snaps
88CeeDee LambWR · Heavy rotation67%51 snaps
86Luke SchoonmakerTE · Heavy rotation66%50 snaps
40Hunter LuepkeFB · Rotational42%32 snaps
89Brevyn Spann-FordTE · Rotational42%32 snaps
3Brandin CooksWR · Rotational39%30 snaps
81Jonathan MingoWR · Rotational34%26 snaps
83Jalen BrooksWR · Rotational30%23 snaps
9KaVontae TurpinWR · Situational18%14 snaps
60Tyler GuytonT · Situational18%14 snaps
15Ezekiel ElliottRB · Situational12%9 snaps
85Princeton FantTE · Situational4%3 snaps
79Matt WaletzkoT · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Andrew BoothCBTrevon DiggsCBMarshawn KneelandDEZack MartinGDeuce VaughnRBJake FergusonTERyan FlournoyWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Lock pass−28% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(11:37) 2-D.Lock pass short left intended for 26-D.Singletary INTERCEPTED by 13-D.Overshown at NYG 23. 13-D.Overshown for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 11:37 · Giants · 1st & 10 at NYG 40 · gained nothing · -9.03 EP · −27.8% win probability
175 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 180. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 80 yards from the NYG 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
42%
Yards
564
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.0676%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.1166%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.0750%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-1.4633%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Giants0Cowboys3
Field goal13 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Giants 5
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Giants6Cowboys3
Giants7Cowboys3
Touchdown15 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Cowboys 1
The period ended8 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Giants 46
2nd quarter67 plays
Giants7Cowboys6
Field goal7 plays, from the Giants 33 to the Giants 15
How the play was built
A screen, play action, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Giants7Cowboys12
Touchdown2 plays
Giants7Cowboys13
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Cowboys 48
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Cowboys 13 to the Cowboys 44
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 44 to the Cowboys 42
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 1 to the Cowboys 2
Giants10Cowboys13
Field goal5 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Cowboys 25
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Cowboys 41
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 14 to the Giants 17
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 34 to the Cowboys 49
The period ended11 plays, from the Giants 11 to the Giants 40
3rd quarter37 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Giants 38
Giants10Cowboys19
Giants10Cowboys20
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 38 to the Giants 2
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Giants 35
Giants10Cowboys26
Giants10Cowboys27
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Giants 4
The period ended9 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Cowboys 30
4th quarter45 plays
Giants13Cowboys27
Field goal4 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Giants 47
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 26
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 39 to the Giants 41
Giants19Cowboys27
Giants20Cowboys27
Touchdown11 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Cowboys 8
The period ended10 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Cowboys 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
