For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Eagles166 of 177 plays carry both curves
(1:26) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Swing −14.4 for RavensExpected points −2.81 for RavensThe model had Eagles 2 points higher than the market did.play 119
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 1:26PHI +14% win prob(1:26) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
3rd · 10:00PHI +11% win prob(10:00) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
3rd · 12:31BAL +11% win prob(12:31) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 89-M.Andrews to PHI 20 for 23 yards (8-C.Gardner-Johnson) [93-M.Williams].
2nd · 2:46BAL +10% win prob(2:46) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to BAL 1 for 9 yards (29-A.Washington).
3rd · 10:43PHI +9% win prob(10:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at PHI 29 for -14 yards (sack split by 53-Z.Baun and 58-J.Hunt).
4th · 8:04BAL +9% win prob(8:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 8:09
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jalen Hurts's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 2:03 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:25Justin Tucker·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+30–3
1st3:56Mark Andrews·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Lamar Jacksonfrom Lamar Jackson · kick no good, hit left upright+60–9
Ravens ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Eagles: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.00Ravens: −0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.07Eagles: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.08Ravens: +0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Eagles: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.14Ravens: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 52 snaps at a 40% dropback rate against Ravens’s 71 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 4, Ravens 5.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BAL's blitz rate sent, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 13 — 9.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 3.7% in week 7.
A 3.1-swing turn from week 12.
21 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 11 pts
right on their number · −2.0 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Ravens9.5%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.1 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−1.34× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
NoteBAL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 22.7 points below their season mean of 22.7% and 2.0 times their own 11.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
68Jordan MailataT · Every snap100%56 snaps
77Mekhi BectonT · Every snap100%56 snaps
69Landon DickersonG · Every snap100%56 snaps
51Cam JurgensG · Every snap100%56 snaps
65Lane JohnsonT · Every snap100%56 snaps
1Jalen HurtsQB · Every snap100%56 snaps
11A.J. BrownWR · Full-time96%54 snaps
26Saquon BarkleyRB · Full-time88%49 snaps
88Dallas GoedertTE · Heavy rotation71%40 snaps
83Jahan DotsonWR · Heavy rotation64%36 snaps
80Parris CampbellWR · Heavy rotation50%28 snaps
81Grant CalcaterraTE · Rotational48%27 snaps
47C.J. UzomahTE · Rotational36%20 snaps
56Tyler SteenG · Situational16%9 snaps
18Britain CoveyWR · Situational14%8 snaps
14Kenneth GainwellRB · Situational13%7 snaps
33Cooper DeJeanCB · Situational2%1 snap
28Will ShipleyRB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Nick GatesCDarius SlayCBTrevor KeeganGTanner McKeeQBDarian KinnardTDeVonta SmithWRJohnny WilsonWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Charles HarrisDEKenny PickettQBAinias SmithWR
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
65Patrick MekariG · Every snap100%72 snaps
77Daniel FaaleleT · Every snap100%72 snaps
79Ronnie StanleyT · Every snap100%72 snaps
70Roger RosengartenT · Every snap100%72 snaps
64Tyler LinderbaumC · Every snap100%72 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
4Zay FlowersWR · Full-time94%68 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Heavy rotation74%53 snaps
16Tylan WallaceWR · Heavy rotation56%40 snaps
15Nelson AgholorWR · Heavy rotation56%40 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Heavy rotation51%37 snaps
43Justice HillRB · Heavy rotation50%36 snaps
80Isaiah LikelyTE · Heavy rotation50%36 snaps
7Rashod BatemanWR · Rotational40%29 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Rotational26%19 snaps
74Josh JonesG · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 5
Nick SamacCMarcus WilliamsFSKyle Van NoyOLBKeaton MitchellRBDevontez WalkerWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Justin Tucker−15% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:26) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q3 1:26 · Ravens · 4th & 7 at PHI 35 · gained nothing · -2.81 EP · −14.9% win probability
164 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 82 yards from the BAL 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
43%
Yards
624
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.0464%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25+0.2056%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.1556%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.0441%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.1136%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.160%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Eagles 46
Eagles0Ravens3
Field goal8 plays, from the Ravens 33 to the Eagles 13
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Eagles 34
Eagles0Ravens9
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 18 to the Eagles 9
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 27 to the Eagles 30
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 42
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 1 to the Ravens 6
Eagles6Ravens9
Eagles7Ravens9
Touchdown7 plays, from the Ravens 49 to the Ravens 17
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 33
Eagles13Ravens9
Eagles14Ravens9
Touchdown11 plays, from the Eagles 32 to the Ravens 1
Eagles14Ravens12
Field goal12 plays, from the Ravens 41 to the Eagles 19
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
No good11 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Eagles 15
Punt4 plays
No good14 plays, from the Ravens 18 to the Eagles 35
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 43 to the Eagles 47
4th quarter53 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Ravens 5 to the Ravens 44
Eagles20Ravens12
Eagles21Ravens12
Touchdown9 plays, from the Eagles 29 to the Ravens 25
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Ravens 42
Eagles24Ravens12
Field goal16 plays, from the Ravens 42 to the Ravens 17
Eagles24Ravens18
Eagles24Ravens19
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Eagles 11
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
