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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:17 AM ET · 16 to play
Pittsburgh Steelers 44 at Cincinnati Bengals 38. Final.
Bengals -3 upset
The verdict · 2024 Week 13
Pittsburgh Steelers 44, Bengals 38 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 11:59, 3rd and 3, on Cam Taylor-Britt — 19.4 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:59 · 3rd and 3
Cam Taylor-Britt
Bengals
(11:59) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 14-G.Pickens INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Taylor-Britt at CIN 49. 29-C.Taylor-Britt for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: PIT-19-C.Austin has returned to the game.
O 46 ✓
30°F
Bengals closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Pittsburgh Steelers 44–38. Biggest swing: Q1 11:59, Bengals +19.4% win probability on one snap.
19.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Joe BurrowSteelersQ2 4:46(4:46) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at PIT 36 for -3 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt) [90-T.Watt], RECOVERED by PIT-41-P.Wilson at PIT 35. 41-P.Wilson to PIT 36 for 1 yard (89-D.Sample). FUMBLES (89-D.Sample), recovered by PIT-91-P.Smith at PIT 38. 91-P.Smith to PIT 39 for 1 yard (65-A.Cappa).
18.8pts
Donte JacksonSteelersQ4 13:35(13:35) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson (97-Ca.Heyward) at PIT 36. 26-D.Jackson to PIT 47 for 11 yards (5-T.Higgins).
13.2pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Steelers won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Bengals at 7 chunk plays.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Bengals at 3 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Steelers at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Steelers won this one — +0.28 expected points per snap, against Bengals at -0.00 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Steelers173 of 185 plays carry both curves
(11:59) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 14-G.Pickens INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Taylor-Britt at CIN 49. 29-C.Taylor-Britt for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: PIT-19-C.Austin has returned to the game.
Swing +19.4 for BengalsExpected points +8.27 for BengalsModel and market agree here.play 11
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:59PIT +19% win prob(11:59) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 14-G.Pickens INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Taylor-Britt at CIN 49. 29-C.Taylor-Britt for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: PIT-19-C.Austin has returned to the game.
2nd · 4:46PIT +19% win prob(4:46) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at PIT 36 for -3 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt) [90-T.Watt], RECOVERED by PIT-41-P.Wilson at PIT 35. 41-P.Wilson to PIT 36 for 1 yard (89-D.Sample). FUMBLES (89-D.Sample), recovered by PIT-91-P.Smith at PIT 38. 91-P.Smith to PIT 39 for 1 yard (65-A.Cappa).
4th · 13:35PIT +13% win prob(13:35) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson (97-Ca.Heyward) at PIT 36. 26-D.Jackson to PIT 47 for 11 yards (5-T.Higgins).
3rd · 7:40CIN +13% win prob(7:40) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 5-T.Higgins to PIT 37 for 31 yards (23-D.Kazee).
4th · 11:14PIT +11% win prob(11:14) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 20 for -9 yards (51-Ni.Herbig). FUMBLES (51-Ni.Herbig) [51-Ni.Herbig], RECOVERED by PIT-41-P.Wilson at CIN 21. 41-P.Wilson for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 11:34
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chris Boswell's 50-yard field goal with 3:36 left in the 2nd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
4th8:42Tee Higgins·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+741–31
4th3:56Chris Boswell·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.Kuntz+344–31
4th2:43Andrei Iosivas·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+744–38
14 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryBengals
Steelers7–2Bengals
522Total yards375
8.2Yards per play6.6
58%Success rate53%
44%Third-down rate50%
2Red-zone touchdowns4
12Explosive plays7
23First downs21
2Sacks taken4
1Turnovers3
The read
Steelers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.28Steelers: +0.28 expected points added per play
−0.00Bengals: −0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.38Steelers: +0.38 expected points added per play
−0.03Bengals: −0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.10Steelers: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.10Bengals: +0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 64 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Bengals’s 57 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 6, Bengals 5.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs -0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 13Against their seasonOver Expected
PIT's pass rate over expected, +10.2 pts, is past their previous high of +0.8 pts in week 11 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
2.5 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 4.1-swing turn from week 12.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
high through week 13Against their seasonTendencies
PIT's early-down pass rate, 60.0%, is past their previous high of 56.6% in week 4 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
A 2.8-swing turn from week 12.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 26 pts
leaned — got home · +8.4 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.10× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Bengals22.0%
inside their normal wobble · +6.6 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NotePIT's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 10.2 pts, 16.5 points above their season mean of -6.3 pts and 2.5 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass−19% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:59) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 14-G.Pickens INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Taylor-Britt at CIN 49. 29-C.Taylor-Britt for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: PIT-19-C.Austin has returned to the game.
Q1 11:59 · Steelers · 3rd & 3 at PIT 45 · gained nothing · -8.27 EP · −19.1% win probability
171 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 180. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 80 yards from the PIT 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
56%
Yards
895
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.1176%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.2461%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.1859%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.2969%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.8171%
Bengals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR5-1.57100%
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 37 to the Bengals 44
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Steelers0Bengals6
Touchdown4 plays, from the Steelers 15 to the Steelers 45
Steelers0Bengals7
Steelers6Bengals7
Steelers7Bengals7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Bengals 17
Steelers7Bengals13
Steelers7Bengals14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Steelers 1
The period ended12 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Bengals 25
2nd quarter54 plays
Steelers13Bengals14
Steelers14Bengals14
Touchdown2 plays
Steelers14Bengals20
Steelers14Bengals21
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Steelers 1
Steelers20Bengals21
Steelers21Bengals21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Steelers 32 to the Bengals 10
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Bengals 38 to the Steelers 33
Steelers24Bengals21
Field goal5 plays, from the Steelers 39 to the Bengals 32
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 39
Steelers27Bengals21
Field goal10 plays, from the Steelers 19 to the Bengals 16
3rd quarter34 plays
No good9 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Bengals 23
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Steelers27Bengals24
Field goal13 plays, from the Bengals 32 to the Steelers 11
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Steelers33Bengals24
Steelers34Bengals24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Bengals 25
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter56 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bengals 49 to the Steelers 35
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 47 to the Bengals 49
Steelers40Bengals24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 11 to the Bengals 29
Steelers41Bengals24
Steelers41Bengals30
Steelers41Bengals31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Steelers 1
Steelers44Bengals31
Field goal17 plays, from the Steelers 16 to the Bengals 3
Steelers44Bengals37
Steelers44Bengals38
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bengals 36 to the Steelers 3
The period ended6 plays, from the Bengals 46 to the Bengals 33
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bengals -3
Closing total
46
Steelers moneyline
+130
Bengals moneyline
-155
Bengals closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 82 — over by 36.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Freezing, 30°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Steelers 10 days · Bengals 14 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Zac Taylor
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
PIT +11% win prob
(11:34) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is BLOCKED (58-J.Ossai), Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.
2nd · 15:00CIN +10% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 19-C.Austin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-J.Ossai].
1st · 5:17CIN +9% win prob(5:17) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown right guard for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown right guard to PIT 1 for 40 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick, 24-J.Porter).
Steelerscategory by categoryBengals
Steelers0
Bengals6
