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2024 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 1, 2024 · Paycor Stadium

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

44

Cincinnati Bengals

38

CIN -3 upsetO 46 ✓32°F

Pittsburgh Steelers 44–38. Biggest swing: Q1 11:59, PIT +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CIN ↑PIT ↓
Q1 · 11:59PIT 0 — CIN 6PIT ball · 3rd & 3CIN 52%

(11:59) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 14-G.Pickens INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Taylor-Britt at CIN 49. 29-C.Taylor-Britt for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: PIT-19-C.Austin has returned to the game.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 11:59PIT +19% win prob(11:59) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 14-G.Pickens INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Taylor-Britt at CIN 49. 29-C.Taylor-Britt for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: PIT-19-C.Austin has returned to the game.
  2. Q2 · 4:46PIT +19% win prob(4:46) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at PIT 36 for -3 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt) [90-T.Watt], RECOVERED by PIT-41-P.Wilson at PIT 35. 41-P.Wilson to PIT 36 for 1 yard (89-D.Sample). FUMBLES (89-D.Sample), recovered by PIT-91-P.Smith at PIT 38. 91-P.Smith to PIT 39 for 1 yard (65-A.Cappa).
  3. Q4 · 13:35PIT +13% win prob(13:35) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson (97-Ca.Heyward) at PIT 36. 26-D.Jackson to PIT 47 for 11 yards (5-T.Higgins).
  4. Q3 · 7:40CIN +13% win prob(7:40) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 5-T.Higgins to PIT 37 for 31 yards (23-D.Kazee).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:59CIN Touchdown

    (11:59) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 14-G.Pickens INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Taylor-Britt at CIN 49. 29-C.Taylor-Britt for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: PIT-19-C.Austin has returned to the game. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 0 — CIN 7
  2. Q1 · 7:47PIT Touchdown

    (7:47) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-G.Pickens for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 7 — CIN 7
  3. Q1 · 5:04CIN Touchdown

    (5:04) 62-M.Lee reported in as eligible. 30-C.Brown up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 7 — CIN 14
  4. Q2 · 15:00PIT Touchdown

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 19-C.Austin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-J.Ossai]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 14 — CIN 14
  5. Q2 · 9:58CIN Touchdown

    (9:58) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-K.Benton]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 14 — CIN 21
  6. Q2 · 7:23PIT Touchdown

    (7:23) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris left tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 21 — CIN 21
  7. Q2 · 3:36PIT Field goal

    (3:36) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: PIT 24 — CIN 21
  8. Q2 · 0:03PIT Field goal

    (:03) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: PIT 27 — CIN 21
  9. Q3 · 3:58CIN Field goal

    (3:58) 2-E.McPherson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    Score after this play: PIT 27 — CIN 24
  10. Q3 · 0:28PIT Touchdown

    (:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-K.Jenkins]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 34 — CIN 24
  11. Q4 · 11:14PIT Touchdown

    (11:14) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 20 for -9 yards (51-Ni.Herbig). FUMBLES (51-Ni.Herbig) [51-Ni.Herbig], RECOVERED by PIT-41-P.Wilson at CIN 21. 41-P.Wilson for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 41 — CIN 24
  12. Q4 · 8:42CIN Touchdown

    (8:42) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 5-T.Higgins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 41 — CIN 31
  13. Q4 · 3:56PIT Field goal

    (3:56) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: PIT 44 — CIN 31
  14. Q4 · 2:43CIN Touchdown

    (2:43) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 80-A.Iosivas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-24-J.Porter, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 44 — CIN 38

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSteelersBengals
Offensive plays6457
Total yards522 (edge)375
Yards per play8.2 (edge)6.6
Expected points added / play0.28 (edge)-0.00
Success rate58% (edge)53%
Dropback rate64%77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.38 (edge)-0.03
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.100.10 (edge)
Third downs4/94/8 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)12 (edge)7
First downs gained on snaps23 (edge)21
Sacks taken2 (edge)4
Turnovers1 (edge)3

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs -0.00.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Russell WilsonQB

29/38, 414 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

15.5 expected points added · +12.3% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

28/38, 309 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

-1.2 expected points added · +9.5% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

16 att, 75 yds, 1 TD

2.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Chase BrownRB

12 att, 70 yds, 1 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

6/9 for 86 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

George PickensWR

3/6 for 74 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · -4.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CINCIN 375122:03Punt
2PITPIT 15371:08Defensive touchdown
3PITPIT 309704:08Touchdown +7
4CINCIN 258752:40Touchdown +7
5PITPIT 3012905:05Touchdown +7
6CINCIN 3011585:04Touchdown +7
7PITPIT 327492:33Touchdown +7
8CINCIN 386272:43Fumble
9PITPIT 395291:05Field goal +3
10CINCIN 30591:35Punt
11PITPIT 198651:56Field goal +3
12PITPIT 308623:32Missed field goal
13CINCIN 3212537:35Field goal +3
14PITPIT 208753:31Touchdown +7
15CINCIN 335321:53Interception
16PITPIT 47440:46Punt
17CINCIN 114-11:37Defensive touchdown
18CINCIN 309462:27Touchdown +7
19PITPIT 1612584:46Field goal +3
20CINCIN 367641:14Touchdown +7
21PITCIN 466132:39End of game

12 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 90 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Russell Wilson29/3841431215.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Najee Harris16754.712.9
Cordarrelle Patterson3165.300.1
Jaylen Warren393.00-1.8
Justin Fields177.001.0
Russell Wilson331.00-2.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
George Pickens3674117%-4.6
Pat Freiermuth6768119%3.9
Jaylen Warren4455011%2.0
Najee Harris6654017%5.2
Van Jefferson134308%2.4
Cordarrelle Patterson333708%2.6
Calvin Austin222916%3.3
Ben Skowronek112303%2.3
MyCole Pruitt232108%0.3
Darnell Washington111003%1.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Patrick Queen450.000
DeShon Elliott540.000
Minkah Fitzpatrick320.000
Joey Porter230.000
Cameron Heyward321.001
Cameron Sutton130.002
Payton Wilson120.000
Miles Killebrew300.000
Damontae Kazee300.000
Nick Herbig111.000

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Burrow28/38309314-1.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chase Brown12705.810.4
Khalil Herbert11414.000.9
Joe Burrow294.50-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ja'Marr Chase6986124%4.4
Tee Higgins51069127%0.6
Mike Gesicki5553014%4.2
Andrei Iosivas3435111%3.0
Chase Brown333008%1.9
Tanner Hudson4428011%2.7
Drew Sample22805%-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Akeem Davis-Gaither490.000
Germaine Pratt280.000
Geno Stone430.000
Cam Taylor-Britt330.011
Kris Jenkins150.000
Jordan Battle140.000
B.J. Hill231.000
Josh Newton400.001
Joseph Ossai301.000
Mike Hilton120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CIN -3
Closing total
46
PIT moneyline
+130
CIN moneyline
-155

Bengals closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 82 — over by 36.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
32°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
PIT 10 days · CIN 14 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Zac Taylor

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.