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Seattle Seahawks 26, Jets 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 5:32, 4th and 1, on Geno Smith — 20.2 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 5:32 · 4th and 1
Geno Smith
Jets
(5:32) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at NYJ 16 for -15 yards (56-Qi.Williams).
Jets closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Seattle Seahawks 26–21. Biggest swing: Q3 5:32, Jets +20.2% win probability on one snap.
20.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Leonard WilliamsSeahawksQ2 7:53(7:53) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 5-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 99-L.Williams at SEA 8. 99-L.Williams for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.6pts
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSeahawksQ3 0:16(:16) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at NYJ 20 for 24 yards (30-M.Carter).
18.7pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Seahawks won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Jets at 4 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — -0.02 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.27 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Seahawks won this one — -0.03 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.31 expected points per dropback.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.01 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.19 expected points per carry.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Seahawks161 of 167 plays carry both curves
(5:32) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at NYJ 16 for -15 yards (56-Qi.Williams).
Swing +20.2 for JetsExpected points +5.34 for JetsThe model had Jets 7 points higher than the market did.play 112
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 5:32SEA +20% win prob(5:32) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at NYJ 16 for -15 yards (56-Qi.Williams).
3rd · 0:16NYJ +19% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at NYJ 20 for 24 yards (30-M.Carter).
2nd · 7:53SEA +18% win prob(7:53) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 5-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 99-L.Williams at SEA 8. 99-L.Williams for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:38SEA +17% win prob(:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 5-G.Wilson [8-C.Bryant].
2nd · 10:53NYJ +16% win prob5-J.Myers kicks 64 yards from SEA 35 to NYJ 1. 34-K.Nwangwu for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 7:07NYJ +16% win prob(7:07) 26-Z.Charbonnet right end to NYJ 34 for -1 yards (94-S.Thomas; 44-J.Sherwood). PENALTY on NYJ-94-S.Thomas, Horse Collar Tackle, 16 yards, enforced at NYJ 33 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Zach Charbonnet's 8-yard rushing touchdown with 5:37 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
2nd10:53Kene Nwangwu·99-yd return TD99-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+77–21
2nd7:53Leonard Williams·92-yd defence TD92-yard touchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored it · kick blocked by Q.Williams+613–21
2nd4:20Jason Myers·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+316–21
4th13:16Jason Myers·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+319–21
4th5:37Zach Charbonnet·8-yd TD run8-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+726–21
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryJets
Seahawks2–6Jets
260Total yards261
4.6Yards per play4.2
34%Success rate37%
31%Third-down rate38%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays4
12First downs16
3Sacks taken2
3Turnovers2
The read
Jets ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Seahawks, in explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.02Seahawks: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.27Jets: −0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.03Seahawks: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.31Jets: −0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Seahawks: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.19Jets: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 56 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Jets’s 62 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 4, Jets 4.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · −3.3 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Jets17.1%
right on their number · +3.5 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was SEA's blitz rate sent, 35.7% against a season mean of 26.6% — and SEA swings 12.6 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
67Charles CrossT · Every snap100%64 snaps
72Abraham LucasT · Every snap100%64 snaps
70Laken TomlinsonG · Every snap100%64 snaps
63Sataoa LaumeaT · Every snap100%64 snaps
7Geno SmithQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
51Olu OluwatimiC · Every snap100%64 snaps
11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Heavy rotation77%49 snaps
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Smith pass+19% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:16) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at NYJ 20 for 24 yards (30-M.Carter).
Q3 0:16 · Seahawks · 4th & 6 at NYJ 44 · gained 24 · +4.50 EP · +18.6% win probability
159 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 88 yards from the SEA 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
38%
Yards
519
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.3269%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.1674%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.4136%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.0133%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.0780%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 41
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 13 to the Jets 16
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 39 to the Seahawks 48
Seahawks0Jets6
Touchdown14 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Seahawks 8
Fumble lost1 play
Seahawks0Jets12
Seahawks0Jets14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Seahawks 4
The period ended5 plays, from the Seahawks 12 to the Seahawks 45
2nd quarter44 plays
Seahawks6Jets14
Seahawks7Jets14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 46 to the Jets 12
Seahawks7Jets20
Seahawks7Jets21
Touchdown2 plays
Fumble lost1 play
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Seahawks13Jets21
Touchdown6 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the Seahawks 9
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Jets 44 to the Seahawks 48
Seahawks16Jets21
Field goal5 plays, from the Seahawks 48 to the Jets 36
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 30 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 15 to the Seahawks 21
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Jets 31 to the Seahawks 39
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Turnover on downs17 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Jets 1
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Jets 16 to the Jets 44
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.0 seconds
The period ended8 plays, from the Seahawks 41 to the Jets 39
4th quarter42 plays
Seahawks19Jets21
Field goal4 plays
Punt7 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Seahawks25Jets21
Seahawks26Jets21
Touchdown14 plays, from the Seahawks 29 to the Jets 8
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Seahawks 29
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Jets -1
Closing total
41.5
Seahawks moneyline
-105
Jets moneyline
-115
Jets closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 47 — over by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 36°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the west; overcast.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Seahawks 7 days · Jets 14 days
Coaches
Mike Macdonald vs Robert Saleh
4th · 1:22
SEA +15% win prob
(1:22) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at SEA 34 for -5 yards (99-L.Williams).
4th · 9:18NYJ +14% win prob(9:18) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 14-D.Metcalf. PENALTY on NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at SEA 38 - No Play.
