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2024 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 1, 2024 · MetLife Stadium

Seattle SeahawksWinner

26

New York Jets

21

NYJ -1 upsetO 41.5 ✓

Seattle Seahawks 26–21. Biggest swing: Q3 5:32, SEA +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NYJ ↑SEA ↓
Q3 · 5:32SEA 16 — NYJ 21SEA ball · 4th & 1NYJ 53%

(5:32) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at NYJ 16 for -15 yards (56-Qi.Williams).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 5:32SEA +20% win prob(5:32) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at NYJ 16 for -15 yards (56-Qi.Williams).
  2. Q3 · 0:16NYJ +19% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at NYJ 20 for 24 yards (30-M.Carter).
  3. Q2 · 7:53SEA +18% win prob(7:53) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 5-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 99-L.Williams at SEA 8. 99-L.Williams for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 0:38SEA +17% win prob(:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 5-G.Wilson [8-C.Bryant].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 3:29NYJ Touchdown

    (3:29) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: SEA 0 — NYJ 6
  2. Q1 · 1:50NYJ Touchdown

    (1:50) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 32-I.Davis for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: SEA 0 — NYJ 14
  3. Q2 · 10:59SEA Touchdown

    (10:59) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 88-A.Barner for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 7 — NYJ 14
  4. Q2 · 10:53NYJ Touchdown

    5-J.Myers kicks 64 yards from SEA 35 to NYJ 1. 34-K.Nwangwu for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 7 — NYJ 21
  5. Q2 · 7:53SEA Touchdown

    (7:53) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 5-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 99-L.Williams at SEA 8. 99-L.Williams for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: SEA 13 — NYJ 21
  6. Q2 · 4:20SEA Field goal

    (4:20) 5-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: SEA 16 — NYJ 21
  7. Q4 · 13:16SEA Field goal

    (13:16) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: SEA 19 — NYJ 21
  8. Q4 · 5:37SEA Touchdown

    (5:37) 26-Z.Charbonnet left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SEA-88-A.Barner, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. Penalty on NYJ-95-Q.Williams, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 26 — NYJ 21

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSeahawksJets
Offensive plays5662
Total yards260261 (edge)
Yards per play4.6 (edge)4.2
Expected points added / play-0.02 (edge)-0.27
Success rate34%37% (edge)
Dropback rate63%68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.03 (edge)-0.31
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.01 (edge)-0.19
Third downs4/135/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps1216 (edge)
Sacks taken32 (edge)
Turnovers32 (edge)

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.27.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

20/31, 206 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-1.6 expected points added · +3.1% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Aaron RodgersQB

21/39, 185 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-14.0 expected points added · -10.2% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Breece HallRB

12 att, 60 yds, 0 TD

-2.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Kenneth WalkerRB

16 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

-3.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR

4/4 for 74 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 8.7 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Davante AdamsWR

5/12 for 66 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 1.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1SEASEA 308102:25Punt
2NYJNYJ 13430:53Punt
3SEASEA 39492:16Punt
4NYJNYJ 2012706:01Touchdown +6
5SEA—100:07Fumble
6NYJSEA 275281:31Touchdown +8
7SEASEA 1212835:54Touchdown +7
8NYJ—200:13Defensive touchdown +7
9SEA—100:06Fumble
10NYJSEA 386292:55Defensive touchdown
11NYJNYJ 44581:42Turnover on downs
12SEASEA 485161:42Field goal +3
13NYJNYJ 308203:10Punt
14SEASEA 15460:59Punt
15NYJNYJ 36200:06End of half
16NYJNYJ 319273:21Punt
17SEASEA 2012726:11Turnover on downs
18NYJNYJ 163192:12Fumble
19SEASEA 4110395:05Field goal +3
20NYJNYJ 385141:37Punt
21SEASEA 2910256:03Touchdown +7
22NYJNYJ 2814434:58Turnover on downs
23SEASEA 34100:33End of game

7 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 83 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Geno Smith20/31206103-1.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kenneth Walker16493.10-3.2
Zach Charbonnet4287.013.2
Jaxon Smith-Njigba155.000.2
Geno Smith221.000.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba4474014%8.7
DK Metcalf4966031%1.4
Noah Fant3426014%0.1
Tyler Lockett3316010%0.6
A.J. Barner221417%1.9
Zach Charbonnet2313010%-0.6
Pharaoh Brown01003%-0.5
Kenneth Walker23-3010%-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ernest Jones420.000
Julian Love500.001
Coby Bryant320.000
Byron Murphy230.000
Tariq Woolen220.001
Josh Jobe400.000
Leonard Williams312.011
Devon Witherspoon310.000
Rayshawn Jenkins210.000
Tre Brown110.000

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers21/39185212-14.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Breece Hall12605.00-2.9
Braelon Allen5112.20-2.0
Malachi Corley188.000.9
Aaron Rodgers263.001.1
Isaiah Davis144.000.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Davante Adams51266132%1.3
Garrett Wilson51041026%-11.6
Tyler Conklin4532013%1.4
Isaiah Davis332818%1.2
Braelon Allen221605%1.0
Jeremy Ruckert12305%-0.8
Breece Hall01003%-0.5
Malachi Corley02005%-1.5
Xavier Gipson11-103%-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Quincy Williams431.000
D.J. Reed430.001
Jamien Sherwood400.000
Ashtyn Davis210.000
Michael Carter300.000
Tony Adams120.000
Ahmad Gardner300.002
Micheal Clemons210.000
Isaiah Oliver300.000
Chazz Surratt110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NYJ -1
Closing total
41.5
SEA moneyline
-105
NYJ moneyline
-115

Jets closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 47 — over by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
37°F, wind 12 mph
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
SEA 7 days · NYJ 14 days
Coaches
Mike Macdonald vs Robert Saleh