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2024 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 1, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

26

Carolina Panthers

23

TB -6.5 no coverO 46 ✓

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:36, CAR +39% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4CAR ↑TB ↓
Q4 · 0:36TB 20 — CAR 22CAR ball · 1st & 10TB 66%

(:36) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:36CAR +39% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. OT · 3:44CAR +38% win prob(3:44) (Shotgun) 1-R.White left end pushed ob at CAR 10 for 38 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade).
  3. OT · 5:54CAR +25% win prob(5:54) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 19-A.Thielen to TB 34 for 16 yards (37-T.Thomas) [0-Y.Diaby].
  4. OT · 7:59TB +22% win prob(7:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CAR 44 for -8 yards (56-T.Wallace).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 4:34TB Touchdown

    (4:34) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 7 — CAR 0
  2. Q1 · 0:52CAR Field goal

    (:52) 4-E.Pineiro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: TB 7 — CAR 3
  3. Q2 · 7:54CAR Touchdown

    (7:54) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 7 — CAR 10
  4. Q2 · 3:42TB Field goal

    (3:42) 4-C.McLaughlin 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: TB 10 — CAR 10
  5. Q2 · 0:07CAR Field goal

    (:07) 4-E.Pineiro 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: TB 10 — CAR 13
  6. Q3 · 0:22CAR Field goal

    (:22) 4-E.Pineiro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: TB 10 — CAR 16
  7. Q4 · 8:58TB Touchdown

    (8:58) 7-B.Irving left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 17 — CAR 16
  8. Q4 · 3:08TB Field goal

    (3:08) 4-C.McLaughlin 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: TB 20 — CAR 16
  9. Q4 · 0:36CAR Touchdown

    (:36) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 20 — CAR 23
  10. Q4 · 0:03TB Field goal

    (:03) 4-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: TB 23 — CAR 23
  11. OT · 2:54TB Field goal

    (2:54) 4-C.McLaughlin 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: TB 26 — CAR 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBuccaneersPanthers
Offensive plays7668
Total yards447 (edge)367
Yards per play5.9 (edge)5.4
Expected points added / play-0.030.00 (edge)
Success rate45%49% (edge)
Dropback rate51%74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.200.13 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.15 (edge)-0.36
Third downs2/126/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)11 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps25 (edge)17
Sacks taken41 (edge)
Turnovers21 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

26/46, 298 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.5 expected points added · +3.0% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

21/33, 235 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-8.4 expected points added · -2.3% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Bucky IrvingRB

25 att, 152 yds, 1 TD

5.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

11 att, 76 yds, 0 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

8/12 for 118 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · 6.5 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Adam ThielenWR

8/10 for 99 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CARCAR 30550:54Punt
2TBTB 26461:33Punt
3CARCAR 21491:58Punt
4TBTB 3713606:06Touchdown +7
5CARCAR 308413:41Field goal +3
6TBTB 26510:57Punt
7CARCAR 249573:12Missed field goal
8TBTB 284-41:57Punt
9CARTB 365271:57Touchdown +7
10TBTB 3010714:06Field goal +3
11CARCAR 307331:58Missed field goal
12TBTB 353120:58Interception
13CARCAR 439490:38Field goal +3
14TB—100:05End of half
15TBTB 306162:30Punt
16CARCAR 197392:59Punt
17TBTB 216143:04Punt
18CARCAR 12460:55Punt
19TBTB 33391:24Interception
20CARTB 207163:49Field goal +3
21TBTB 3113696:26Touchdown +7
22CARCAR 30501:35Punt
23TBTB 259674:13Field goal +3
24CARCAR 4011602:35Touchdown +7
25TBTB 307360:30Field goal +3
26TBTB 347293:29Missed field goal
27CARCAR 454251:28Fumble
28TBTB 295612:13Field goal +3

11 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 71 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield21/33235124-8.4
Kyle Trask1/150000.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bucky Irving251526.115.6
Rachaad White11766.901.7
Baker Mayfield382.70-3.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mike Evans812118135%6.5
Sterling Shepard4742021%2.3
Bucky Irving333309%2.3
Jalen McMillan232509%-4.8
Cade Otton4720021%-6.2
Rachaad White11203%-0.5
Trey Palmer01003%-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Lavonte David520.000
Anthony Nelson510.000
Antoine Winfield600.000
J.J. Russell410.000
YaYa Diaby410.000
Jamel Dean410.000
Christian Izien120.000
Mike Edwards120.000
Tavierre Thomas210.000
Zyon McCollum110.001

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bryce Young26/462981014.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chuba Hubbard12433.60-5.3
Jonathon Brooks6183.00-1.2
Bryce Young3175.712.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Adam Thielen81099124%6.2
Tommy Tremble5877020%3.1
Xavier Legette4853020%-1.5
David Moore5940022%-0.0
Jonathon Brooks332307%1.5
Dan Chisena11602%0.2
Stephen Sullivan01002%-0.5
Feleipe Franks01002%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Josey Jewell641.000
Jordan Fuller530.001
Chau Smith-Wade620.011
Xavier Woods520.011
Jaycee Horn230.002
D.J. Johnson500.000
A'Shawn Robinson410.000
Amare Barno311.000
Trevin Wallace221.000
Shy Tuttle120.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
TB -6.5
Closing total
46
TB moneyline
-290
CAR moneyline
+235

Buccaneers closed -6.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 46; the game landed 49 — over by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
51°F, wind 7 mph
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
TB 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Dave Canales

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.