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2024 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 1, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
BuccaneersTampa Bay26
BY 3final margin
PanthersCarolina23
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 at Carolina Panthers 23. Final.
Buccaneers -6.5 no coverO 46 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26, Panthers 23 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:36, 1st and 10, on Adam Thielen — 39.4 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:36 · 1st and 10
Adam Thielen
Panthers
(:36) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Buccaneers closed -6.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:36, Panthers +39.4% win probability on one snap.
39.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Adam ThielenPanthersOT 5:54(5:54) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 19-A.Thielen to TB 34 for 16 yards (37-T.Thomas) [0-Y.Diaby].
24.7pts
Rachaad WhiteBuccaneersOT 3:44(3:44) (Shotgun) 1-R.White left end pushed ob at CAR 10 for 38 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade).
37.7pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Panthers at 4 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.15 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.36 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 16 on third down, against Buccaneers at 2 of 12 on third down.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — +0.13 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at -0.20 expected points per dropback.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Buccaneers193 of 211 plays carry both curves
(:36) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +39.4 for PanthersExpected points +3.56 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 12 points higher than the market did.play 180
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:36CAR +39% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 3:44CAR +38% win prob(3:44) (Shotgun) 1-R.White left end pushed ob at CAR 10 for 38 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade).
Overtime · 5:54CAR +25% win prob(5:54) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 19-A.Thielen to TB 34 for 16 yards (37-T.Thomas) [0-Y.Diaby].
Overtime · 7:59TB +22% win prob(7:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CAR 44 for -8 yards (56-T.Wallace).
3rd · 4:19TB +21% win prob(4:19) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 15-J.McMillan INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Woods at CAR 47. 25-X.Woods ran ob at TB 20 for 33 yards (78-T.Wirfs). ** Injury Update: TB-6-B.Mayfield has returned to the game.
Overtime · 9:18CAR +20% win prob(9:18) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 15-J.McMillan to CAR 40 for 22 yards (47-J.Jewell).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chase McLaughlin's 30-yard field goal with 2:54 left in overtime put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:03Chase McLaughlin·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap E.Deckers+323–23
Overtime2:54Chase McLaughlin·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap E.DeckersLead never changed again+326–23
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryPanthers
Buccaneers5–4Panthers
447Total yards367
5.9Yards per play5.4
45%Success rate49%
17%Third-down rate38%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
11Explosive plays4
25First downs17
4Sacks taken1
2Turnovers1
The read
Buccaneers ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Panthers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Buccaneers: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.00Panthers: +0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.20Buccaneers: −0.20 expected points added per play
+0.13Panthers: +0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.15Buccaneers: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.36Panthers: −0.36 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 76 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Panthers’s 68 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 6, Panthers 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 13Against their seasonTendencies
CAR's early-down pass rate, 71.2%, is past their previous high of 62.8% in week 5 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
CAR's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 12 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
8 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 31.3 points.
CAR's blitz rate sent turned over: 12.8% in week 12 against 33.3% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 16 pts
leaned — got home · +6.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.08× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Panthers15.4%
leaned — got home · +5.4 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (+1.41× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteTB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -10.3 pts, 10.3 points below their season mean of -0.0 pts and 1.6 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
69Cody MauchG · Every snap100%80 snaps
68Ben BredesonG · Every snap100%80 snaps
67Luke GoedekeG · Every snap100%80 snaps
78Tristan WirfsT · Every snap100%80 snaps
62Graham BartonC · Every snap100%80 snaps
6Baker MayfieldQB · Full-time98%78 snaps
88Cade OttonTE · Full-time94%75 snaps
13Mike EvansWR · Full-time84%67 snaps
15Jalen McMillanWR · Heavy rotation76%61 snaps
7Bucky IrvingRB · Heavy rotation54%43 snaps
1Rachaad WhiteRB · Heavy rotation53%42 snaps
17Sterling ShepardWR · Rotational44%35 snaps
87Payne DurhamTE · Rotational39%31 snaps
10Trey PalmerWR · Situational19%15 snaps
18Rakim JarrettWR · Situational14%11 snaps
41Ko KieftTE · Situational11%9 snaps
81Ryan MillerWR · Situational11%9 snaps
2Kyle TraskQB · Situational3%2 snaps
50Vita VeaNT · Situational1%1 snap
70Robert HainseyC · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Tyrek FunderburkCBEarnest Brown IVDEJoe Tryon-ShoyinkaOLBMichael PrattQBTykee SmithSSDevin CulpTE
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
R.White left+38% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(3:44) (Shotgun) 1-R.White left end pushed ob at CAR 10 for 38 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade).
OT 3:44 · Buccaneers · 1st & 10 at CAR 48 · gained 38 · +2.52 EP · +37.7% win probability
191 snaps placed · 20 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 211 plays across 29 drives, personnel groupings on 191 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 205. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 29 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 69 yards from the TB 31 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
211 of 211 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
211
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
46%
Yards
812
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.0274%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.2171%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR26+0.2923%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.0156%
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
211 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
211 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 35
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 26 to the Buccaneers 32
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 21 to the Panthers 30
Buccaneers6Panthers0
Buccaneers7Panthers0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Buccaneers 37 to the Panthers 1
Buccaneers7Panthers3
Field goal8 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Buccaneers 29
The period ended5 plays, from the Buccaneers 26 to the Buccaneers 27
2nd quarter63 plays
Punt1 play
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
No good9 plays, from the Panthers 24 to the Buccaneers 19
Punt5 plays
Buccaneers7Panthers9
Buccaneers7Panthers10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Buccaneers 36 to the Buccaneers 10
Buccaneers10Panthers10
Field goal13 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Panthers 4
The period ended11 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Buccaneers 27
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.2 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Panthers 39
Buccaneers10Panthers13
Field goal12 plays, from the Panthers 43 to the Buccaneers 8
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Buccaneers 44
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 19 to the Buccaneers 47
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 21 to the Buccaneers 45
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 12 to the Panthers 18
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Buccaneers 42
Buccaneers10Panthers16
Field goal7 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 4
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter50 plays
Buccaneers16Panthers16
Buccaneers17Panthers16
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Panthers 6
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Buccaneers20Panthers16
Field goal11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Panthers 2
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Buccaneers20Panthers22
Buccaneers20Panthers23
Touchdown12 plays, from the Panthers 40 to the Buccaneers 25
Buccaneers23Panthers23
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Panthers 34
Overtime19 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
No good7 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the Panthers 36
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Panthers 45 to the Buccaneers 34
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Buccaneers26Panthers23
Field goal6 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Panthers 10
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -6.5
Closing total
46
Buccaneers moneyline
-290
Panthers moneyline
+235
Buccaneers closed -6.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 46; the game landed 49 — over by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 49°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
Buccaneers 7 days · Panthers 7 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Dave Canales
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
Overtime · 6:36
TB +19% win prob
(6:36) 4-C.McLaughlin 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Overtime · 5:11TB +17% win prob(5:11) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to TB 30 for 4 yards (98-A.Nelson). FUMBLES (98-A.Nelson), RECOVERED by TB-0-Y.Diaby at TB 29.
