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2024 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 1, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium
26
23
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:36, CAR +39% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(:36) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
How the points landed
(4:34) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 7 — CAR 0(:52) 4-E.Pineiro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: TB 7 — CAR 3(7:54) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 7 — CAR 10(3:42) 4-C.McLaughlin 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: TB 10 — CAR 10(:07) 4-E.Pineiro 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: TB 10 — CAR 13(:22) 4-E.Pineiro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: TB 10 — CAR 16(8:58) 7-B.Irving left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 17 — CAR 16(3:08) 4-C.McLaughlin 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: TB 20 — CAR 16(:36) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 20 — CAR 23(:03) 4-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: TB 23 — CAR 23(2:54) 4-C.McLaughlin 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: TB 26 — CAR 23Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Buccaneers | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 76 | 68 |
| Total yards | 447 (edge) | 367 |
| Yards per play | 5.9 (edge) | 5.4 |
| Expected points added / play | -0.03 | 0.00 (edge) |
| Success rate | 45% | 49% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 51% | 74% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.20 | 0.13 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.15 (edge) | -0.36 |
| Third downs | 2/12 | 6/16 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 11 (edge) | 4 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 25 (edge) | 17 |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 (edge) |
Who moved the needle
Passing · CAR
26/46, 298 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
4.5 expected points added · +3.0% completion over expected
Passing · TB
21/33, 235 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-8.4 expected points added · -2.3% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | CAR 30 | 5 | 5 | 0:54 | Punt | |
| 2 | TB | TB 26 | 4 | 6 | 1:33 | Punt | |
| 3 | CAR | CAR 21 | 4 | 9 | 1:58 | Punt | |
| 4 | TB | TB 37 | 13 | 60 | 6:06 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 5 | CAR | CAR 30 | 8 | 41 | 3:41 | Field goal +3 | |
| 6 | TB | TB 26 | 5 | 1 | 0:57 | Punt | |
| 7 | CAR | CAR 24 | 9 | 57 | 3:12 | Missed field goal | |
| 8 | TB | TB 28 | 4 | -4 | 1:57 | Punt | |
| 9 | CAR | TB 36 | 5 | 27 | 1:57 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 10 | TB | TB 30 | 10 | 71 | 4:06 | Field goal +3 | |
| 11 | CAR | CAR 30 | 7 | 33 | 1:58 | Missed field goal | |
| 12 | TB | TB 35 | 3 | 12 | 0:58 | Interception | |
| 13 | CAR | CAR 43 | 9 | 49 | 0:38 | Field goal +3 | |
| 14 | TB | — | 1 | 0 | 0:05 | End of half | |
| 15 | TB | TB 30 | 6 | 16 | 2:30 | Punt | |
| 16 | CAR | CAR 19 | 7 | 39 | 2:59 | Punt | |
| 17 | TB | TB 21 | 6 | 14 | 3:04 | Punt | |
| 18 | CAR | CAR 12 | 4 | 6 | 0:55 | Punt | |
| 19 | TB | TB 33 | 3 | 9 | 1:24 | Interception | |
| 20 | CAR | TB 20 | 7 | 16 | 3:49 | Field goal +3 | |
| 21 | TB | TB 31 | 13 | 69 | 6:26 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 22 | CAR | CAR 30 | 5 | 0 | 1:35 | Punt | |
| 23 | TB | TB 25 | 9 | 67 | 4:13 | Field goal +3 | |
| 24 | CAR | CAR 40 | 11 | 60 | 2:35 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 25 | TB | TB 30 | 7 | 36 | 0:30 | Field goal +3 | |
| 26 | TB | TB 34 | 7 | 29 | 3:29 | Missed field goal | |
| 27 | CAR | CAR 45 | 4 | 25 | 1:28 | Fumble | |
| 28 | TB | TB 29 | 5 | 61 | 2:13 | Field goal +3 |
11 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 71 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a field goal.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 21/33 | 235 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8.4 |
| Kyle Trask | 1/1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 25 | 152 | 6.1 | 1 | 5.6 |
| Rachaad White | 11 | 76 | 6.9 | 0 | 1.7 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | -3.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 8 | 12 | 118 | 1 | 35% | 6.5 |
| Sterling Shepard | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 | 21% | 2.3 |
| Bucky Irving | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 9% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavonte David | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Nelson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antoine Winfield | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.J. Russell |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 26/46 | 298 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -6.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 46; the game landed 49 — over by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2.3 |
| Jalen McMillan | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 9% | -4.8 |
| Cade Otton | 4 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 21% | -6.2 |
| Rachaad White | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| Trey Palmer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -1.3 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| YaYa Diaby | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel Dean | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Izien | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Edwards | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavierre Thomas | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zyon McCollum | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| -5.3 |
| Jonathon Brooks | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 | -1.2 |
| Bryce Young | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 1 | 2.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 8 | 10 | 99 | 1 | 24% | 6.2 |
| Tommy Tremble | 5 | 8 | 77 | 0 | 20% | 3.1 |
| Xavier Legette | 4 | 8 | 53 | 0 | 20% | -1.5 |
| David Moore | 5 | 9 | 40 | 0 | 22% | -0.0 |
| Jonathon Brooks | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 7% | 1.5 |
| Dan Chisena | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2% | 0.2 |
| Stephen Sullivan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | -0.5 |
| Feleipe Franks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | -0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josey Jewell | 6 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Fuller | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chau Smith-Wade | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Xavier Woods | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaycee Horn | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| D.J. Johnson | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A'Shawn Robinson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amare Barno | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevin Wallace | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shy Tuttle | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
