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Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Titans172 of 182 plays carry both curves
(12:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 85-N.Brown to TEN 40 for 9 yards (56-K.Murray).
Swing +4.0 for CommandersExpected points +0.68 for CommandersThe model had Titans 13 points higher than the market did.play 10
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:37WAS +4% win prob(12:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 85-N.Brown to TEN 40 for 9 yards (56-K.Murray).
1st · 12:05WAS +3% win prob(12:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson right tackle for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:27TEN +3% win prob(13:27) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete short middle to 0-C.Ridley [4-F.Luvu].
1st · 14:55TEN +2% win prob(14:55) (Shotgun) PENALTY on TEN-55-J.Latham, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 28 - No Play.
1st · 1:42TEN +2% win prob(1:42) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard right end to TEN 24 for 5 yards (0-M.Sainristil; 99-C.Ferrell). FUMBLES (0-M.Sainristil), RECOVERED by WAS-0-M.Sainristil at TEN 24.
1st · 14:07TEN +2% win prob(14:07) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short left to 20-T.Pollard to TEN 16 for -3 yards (94-D.Payne).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brian Robinson's 40-yard rushing touchdown with 12:05 left in the 1st put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:05Brian Robinson·40-yd TD run40-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
Commanders ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.65 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Titans: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.29Commanders: +0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.05Titans: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.29Commanders: +0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.65Titans: −0.65 expected points added per play
+0.30Commanders: +0.30 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 51 snaps at a 78% dropback rate against Commanders’s 76 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Titans 4, Commanders 8.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
WAS's play-action rate, 47.4%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 13 — 0.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 44.0% in week 9.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.9-swing turn from week 12.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
TEN's early-down pass rate turned over: 46.9% in week 12 against 73.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points.
TEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 15.0% in week 12 against 5.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.8 points.
WAS's pass rate over expected turned over: −9.3 pts in week 12 against +4.9 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
76 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
WAS's sack or hit rate turned over: 5.9% in week 12 against 20.0% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 15 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.8 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Commanders20.0%
inside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.91× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteWAS's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 47.4%, 21.3 points above their season mean of 26.1% and 2.3 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 1 never used
77Peter SkoronskiG · Every snap100%55 snaps
55JC LathamT · Every snap100%55 snaps
78Nicholas Petit-FrereT · Every snap100%55 snaps
75Dillon RadunzT · Every snap100%55 snaps
60Daniel BrunskillC · Every snap100%55 snaps
15Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Every snap100%55 snaps
0Calvin RidleyWR · Every snap100%55 snaps
8Will LevisQB · Every snap100%55 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Full-time85%47 snaps
20Tony PollardRB · Heavy rotation73%40 snaps
85Chig OkonkwoTE · Heavy rotation65%36 snaps
2Tyjae SpearsRB · Rotational25%14 snaps
81Josh WhyleTE · Situational22%12 snaps
84Nick VannettTE · Situational20%11 snaps
19Jha'Quan JacksonWR · Situational4%2 snaps
61John OjukwuT · Situational4%2 snaps
36Julius ChestnutRB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 4
Gabe Jeudy-LallyCBJoshua KelleyRBLeroy Watson IVTDavid Martin-RobinsonTE
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Robinson right+6% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson right tackle for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 12:05 · Commanders · 2nd & 1 at TEN 40 · gained 40 · +3.22 EP · +6.0% win probability
170 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 177. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 80 yards from the WAS 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
47%
Yards
708
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.0684%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.2047%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR32+0.3244%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.6113%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt7 plays
Titans0Commanders6
Titans0Commanders7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Commanders 41 to the Titans 40
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 47
Titans0Commanders13
Titans0Commanders14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Titans 3
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Titans 19
Titans0Commanders20
Titans0Commanders21
Touchdown4 plays, from the Titans 24 to the Titans 16
Fumble lost1 play
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Titans0Commanders27
Titans0Commanders28
Touchdown10 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Titans 1
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Titans 20
The period ended16 plays, from the Commanders 12 to the Titans 19
Titans6Commanders28
Titans7Commanders28
Touchdown14 plays, from the Titans 36 to the Commanders 27
The period ended5 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Commanders 36
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 22 to the Commanders 23
Titans10Commanders28
Field goal9 plays, from the Titans 37 to the Commanders 23
Intercepted7 plays, from the Commanders 22 to the Commanders 47
Titans13Commanders28
Field goal7 plays, from the Titans 38 to the Commanders 15
The period ended9 plays, from the Commanders 28 to the Titans 12
4th quarter51 plays
Titans13Commanders34
Titans13Commanders35
Touchdown3 plays, from the Titans 8 to the Titans 4
Punt5 plays
No good9 plays, from the Commanders 29 to the Titans 30
Titans19Commanders35
Touchdown9 plays, from the Titans 42 to the Commanders 17
Titans19Commanders41
Titans19Commanders42
Touchdown14 plays, from the Commanders 29 to the Titans 7
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Titans 28 to the Titans 32
The period ended5 plays, from the Titans 32 to the Titans 19
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Commanders -6
Closing total
45
Titans moneyline
+205
Commanders moneyline
-250
Commanders closed -6 and covered, winning by 23.
Total closed 45; the game landed 61 — over by 16.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 40°F at kickoff; still at 5 mph out of the west; mainly clear.
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
Titans 7 days · Commanders 7 days
Coaches
Brian Callahan vs Dan Quinn
3rd · 6:40
TEN +2% win prob
(6:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Hooker at TEN 38. 37-A.Hooker to TEN 38 for no gain (2-D.Brown).
1st · 9:54TEN +2% win prob(9:54) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short middle to 55-J.Latham to TEN 47 for no gain (4-F.Luvu).
