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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Falcons171 of 181 plays carry both curves
(3:36) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +19.0 for VikingsExpected points +5.64 for VikingsThe model had Falcons 5 points higher than the market did.play 114
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 3:36MIN +19% win prob(3:36) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 13:04MIN +16% win prob(13:04) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 3-J.Addison for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 0:43MIN +15% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:46MIN +13% win prob(:46) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 3-J.Addison for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 7:45MIN +11% win prob(7:45) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 34-R.McCloud to MIN 13 for 27 yards (1-S.Griffin).
3rd · 10:01ATL +11% win prob(10:01) 16-W.Reichard 47 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
2nd · 2:05
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jordan Addison's 11-yard touchdown catch with 13:04 left in the 4th put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Vikings ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Falcons, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.65 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Falcons: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.46Vikings: +0.46 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.02Falcons: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.65Vikings: +0.65 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.19Falcons: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.11Vikings: +0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 71 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Vikings’s 53 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 5, Vikings 6.
NoteFalcons outgained Vikings 498-436 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 17 pts
leaned — got home · +9.1 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.25× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Vikings10.5%
inside their normal wobble · −5.8 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteATL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 20.6%, 9.1 points above their season mean of 11.5% and 1.3 times their own 7.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Darnold pass+18% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(3:36) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 3:36 · Vikings · 3rd & 8 at MIN 48 · gained 52 · +5.64 EP · +18.4% win probability
169 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 176. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 93 yards from the MIN 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
51%
Yards
931
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.1674%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.5072%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR26-0.0623%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.0867%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.4933%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+1.0317%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Falcons6Vikings0
Falcons7Vikings0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Vikings 6
Punt9 plays, from the Vikings 26 to the Falcons 37
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Falcons 18 to the Vikings 38
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Falcons7Vikings6
Falcons7Vikings7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Vikings 38 to the Falcons 49
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Falcons 39 to the Vikings 47
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 35 to the Vikings 43
Punt12 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Vikings 47
Falcons7Vikings13
Falcons7Vikings14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Falcons 12
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Falcons10Vikings14
Field goal16 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Vikings 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
No good11 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Falcons 26
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Falcons13Vikings14
Field goal11 plays, from the Falcons 37 to the Vikings 11
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.5 seconds
Falcons13Vikings20
Falcons13Vikings21
Touchdown6 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 48
Falcons19Vikings21
Falcons21Vikings21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Vikings 13
The period ended5 plays
4th quarter54 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Falcons21Vikings27
Falcons21Vikings28
Touchdown6 plays, from the Vikings 28 to the Falcons 11
Fumble lost1 play
Falcons21Vikings34
Falcons21Vikings35
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 32 to the Falcons 1
Intercepted7 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Vikings 25
Falcons21Vikings41
Falcons21Vikings42
Touchdown14 plays, from the Vikings 2 to the Falcons 15
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Vikings 13
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
