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2024 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 8, 2024 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Atlanta Falcons

21

Minnesota VikingsWinner

42

MIN -6 ✓O 46.5 ✓Dome

Minnesota Vikings 42–21 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 3:36, MIN +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIN ↑ATL ↓
Q3 · 3:36ATL 13 — MIN 20MIN ball · 3rd & 8MIN 68%

(3:36) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 3:36MIN +19% win prob(3:36) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 13:04MIN +16% win prob(13:04) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 3-J.Addison for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q3 · 0:43MIN +15% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q1 · 0:46MIN +13% win prob(:46) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 3-J.Addison for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:01ATL Touchdown

    (9:01) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 7 — MIN 0
  2. Q1 · 0:46MIN Touchdown

    (:46) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 3-J.Addison for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 7 — MIN 7
  3. Q2 · 2:05MIN Touchdown

    (2:05) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [44-T.Andersen]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 7 — MIN 14
  4. Q2 · 0:13ATL Field goal

    (:13) 6-Y.Koo 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ATL 10 — MIN 14
  5. Q3 · 5:09ATL Field goal

    (5:09) 6-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ATL 13 — MIN 14
  6. Q3 · 3:36MIN Touchdown

    (3:36) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 13 — MIN 21
  7. Q3 · 0:43ATL Touchdown

    (:43) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: ATL 21 — MIN 21
  8. Q4 · 13:04MIN Touchdown

    (13:04) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 3-J.Addison for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 21 — MIN 28
  9. Q4 · 8:28MIN Touchdown

    (8:28) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 3-J.Addison for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 21 — MIN 35
  10. Q4 · 3:43MIN Touchdown

    (3:43) 33-A.Jones right guard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 21 — MIN 42

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricFalconsVikings
Offensive plays7153
Total yards498 (edge)436
Yards per play7.08.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.100.46 (edge)
Success rate55% (edge)51%
Dropback rate54%64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.020.65 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.19 (edge)0.11
Third downs7/138/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)911 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps26 (edge)20
Sacks taken1 (edge)4
Turnovers41 (edge)

Falcons outgained Vikings 498–436 but lost the turnover battle 4–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Sam DarnoldQB

22/28, 347 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT

23.6 expected points added · +13.2% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Kirk CousinsQB

23/37, 344 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

0.7 expected points added · -7.1% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

22 att, 92 yds, 1 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Aaron JonesRB

13 att, 73 yds, 1 TD

1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Darnell MooneyWR

6/7 for 142 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 11.3 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Jordan AddisonWR

8/12 for 133 yds, 3 TD

43% of team targets · 11.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1ATLATL 3013706:02Touchdown +7
2MINMIN 269223:57Punt
3ATLATL 188443:33Turnover on downs
4MINMIN 383620:51Touchdown +7
5ATLATL 305232:08Interception
6MINMIN 35481:44Punt
7ATLATL 209325:28Punt
8MINMIN 2010284:16Touchdown +7
9ATLATL 3010881:51Field goal +3
10MINMIN 30200:10End of half
11MINMIN 3010515:04Missed field goal
12ATLATL 3711624:50Field goal +3
13MINMIN 256751:41Touchdown +7
14ATLATL 307722:46Touchdown +8
15MINMIN 308702:40Touchdown +7
16ATL—100:06Fumble
17MINATL 328374:30Touchdown +7
18ATLATL 307451:57Interception
19MINMIN 28832:48Touchdown +7
20ATLATL 3011622:54Turnover on downs
21MINMIN 14200:44End of game

10 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 88 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kirk Cousins23/373440210.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bijan Robinson22924.211.1
Tyler Allgeier9637.015.4
Ray-Ray McCloud133.00-0.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Darnell Mooney67142019%11.3
Ray-Ray McCloud81198030%2.0
Drake London51070027%-2.5
Kyle Pitts1614016%-8.3
Charlie Woerner111103%1.3
Bijan Robinson22905%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kaden Elliss731.000
Jessie Bates350.000
Justin Simmons320.000
Eddie Goldman311.000
Dee Alford210.000
Clark Phillips210.000
Zach Harrison030.001
Lorenzo Carter200.000
Troy Andersen200.000
Matt Judon201.000

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Sam Darnold22/2834750423.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Aaron Jones13735.611.6
Cam Akers5377.400.8
Sam Darnold471.80-1.7
Nick Mullens2-2-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jordan Addison812133343%11.0
Justin Jefferson77132225%13.6
T.J. Hockenson4545018%4.2
Josh Oliver122607%1.2
Aaron Jones221107%0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Blake Cashman520.002
Camryn Bynum250.000
Josh Metellus420.011
Shaquill Griffin400.000
Jalen Redmond400.002
Fabian Moreau310.000
Harrison Smith220.000
Byron Murphy120.011
Andrew Van Ginkel120.001
Dallas Turner210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIN -6
Closing total
46.5
ATL moneyline
+205
MIN moneyline
-250

Vikings closed -6 and covered, winning by 21.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 63 — over by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
ATL 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches
Raheem Morris vs Kevin O'Connell