For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.

2024 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 8, 2024 · SoFi Stadium

Buffalo Bills

42

Los Angeles RamsWinner

44

BUF -3.5 upsetO 49.5 ✓Dome

Los Angeles Rams 44–42 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 10:32, LA +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LA ↑BUF ↓
Q2 · 10:32BUF 13 — LA 17BUF ball · 1st & 10LA 63%

(10:32) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-Ty.Johnson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 10:32LA +17% win prob(10:32) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-Ty.Johnson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 12:38BUF +16% win prob(12:38) 8-S.Martin punt is BLOCKED by 35-J.Hummel, Center-69-R.Ferguson, RECOVERED by LA-84-H.Long at BUF 22. 84-H.Long for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 3:53LA +15% win prob(3:53) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 5-T.Atwell to BUF 24 for 11 yards (9-T.Rapp).
  4. Q3 · 4:04LA +12% win prob(4:04) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:29LA Touchdown

    (8:29) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 0 — LA 7
  2. Q1 · 3:27BUF Touchdown

    (3:27) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-95-B.Brown, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 7 — LA 7
  3. Q2 · 13:40LA Field goal

    (13:40) 16-J.Karty 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: BUF 7 — LA 10
  4. Q2 · 12:38LA Touchdown

    (12:38) 8-S.Martin punt is BLOCKED by 35-J.Hummel, Center-69-R.Ferguson, RECOVERED by LA-84-H.Long at BUF 22. 84-H.Long for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 7 — LA 17
  5. Q2 · 10:32BUF Touchdown

    (10:32) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-Ty.Johnson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 14 — LA 17
  6. Q2 · 2:39LA Touchdown

    (2:39) 17-P.Nacua left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 14 — LA 24
  7. Q3 · 8:31LA Touchdown

    (8:31) 23-K.Williams right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 14 — LA 31
  8. Q3 · 4:04BUF Touchdown

    (4:04) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 21 — LA 31
  9. Q3 · 0:22LA Touchdown

    (:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF-31-R.Douglas was injured during the play. ** Injury Update: LA-15-D.Robinson has returned to the game. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 21 — LA 38
  10. Q4 · 14:29BUF Touchdown

    (14:29) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 28 — LA 38
  11. Q4 · 8:53BUF Touchdown

    (8:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 13-M.Hollins for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 35 — LA 38
  12. Q4 · 2:00LA Touchdown

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-P.Nacua for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: BUF 35 — LA 44
  13. Q4 · 1:02BUF Touchdown

    (1:02) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BUF-73-D.Dawkins, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 42 — LA 44

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBillsRams
Offensive plays5472
Total yards445457 (edge)
Yards per play8.2 (edge)6.3
Expected points added / play0.45 (edge)0.29
Success rate50%51% (edge)
Dropback rate76%42%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.580.82 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.03 (edge)-0.10
Third downs5/911/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)9 (edge)7
First downs gained on snaps2025 (edge)
Sacks taken00
Turnovers00

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

22/37, 342 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

16.8 expected points added · -5.6% completion over expected

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

23/30, 320 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

24.6 expected points added · +7.8% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

29 att, 87 yds, 2 TD

-3.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

10 att, 82 yds, 3 TD

9.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Puka NacuaWR

12/14 for 162 yds, 1 TD

47% of team targets · 14.9 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Khalil ShakirWR

5/8 for 106 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LALA 3014706:34Touchdown +7
2BUFBUF 3011555:04Touchdown +7
3LALA 3211654:45Field goal +3
4BUFBUF 306181:08Defensive touchdown
5BUFBUF 306702:06Touchdown +7
6LALA 2414727:47Touchdown +7
7BUFBUF 187231:47Punt
8LALA 134130:49End of half
9BUFBUF 26531:05Punt
10LALA 2412765:29Touchdown +7
11BUFBUF 2081004:32Touchdown +7
12LALA 309703:36Touchdown +7
13BUFBUF 307550:51Touchdown +7
14LALA 30581:35Punt
15BUFBUF 911864:03Touchdown +7
16LALA 2913756:55Touchdown +6
17BUFBUF 3010350:54Touchdown +7
18LABUF 45581:00Punt

12 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 100 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Josh Allen22/3734230016.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Allen10828.239.6
James Cook6203.30-1.6
Curtis Samuel111.00-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Khalil Shakir58106122%7.0
Amari Cooper61495038%2.3
Mack Hollins4657116%3.8
Ty Johnson235518%3.6
Curtis Samuel231508%-0.2
James Cook22905%0.1
Dawson Knox11503%0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Taylor Rapp850.000
Damar Hamlin760.000
Terrel Bernard360.000
Christian Benford620.002
Rasul Douglas420.000
Taron Johnson410.000
DaQuan Jones130.000
A.J. Epenesa120.000
Ja'Marcus Ingram120.000
Austin Johnson210.000

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Matthew Stafford23/3032020024.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kyren Williams29873.02-3.9
Blake Corum8344.30-0.7
Puka Nacua5163.210.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Puka Nacua1214162147%14.9
Cooper Kupp5892127%6.4
Tutu Atwell3345010%4.9
Colby Parkinson111103%0.2
Kyren Williams221007%-0.4
Hunter Long01003%-0.6
Demarcus Robinson01003%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Christian Rozeboom350.000
Darious Williams410.000
Byron Young130.000
Omar Speights220.000
Kamren Curl310.000
Kamren Kinchens210.001
Quentin Lake110.001
Kobie Turner200.000
Jaylen McCollough110.000
Jared Verse110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BUF -3.5
Closing total
49.5
BUF moneyline
-192
LA moneyline
+160

Bills closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 86 — over by 36.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
BUF 7 days · LA 7 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Sean McVay