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Los Angeles Rams 44, Bills 42 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q2 10:32, 1st and 10, on Ty Johnson — 16.9 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 10:32 · 1st and 10
Ty Johnson
Bills
(10:32) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-Ty.Johnson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Bills closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Los Angeles Rams 44–42 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 10:32, Bills +16.9% win probability on one snap.
16.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetRamsQ2 12:38(12:38) 8-S.Martin punt is BLOCKED by 35-J.Hummel, Center-69-R.Ferguson, RECOVERED by LA-84-H.Long at BUF 22. 84-H.Long for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.1pts
Tutu AtwellRamsQ4 3:53(3:53) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 5-T.Atwell to BUF 24 for 11 yards (9-T.Rapp).
14.6pts
What separated them
Third down
Rams won this one — 11 of 15 on third down, against Bills at 5 of 9 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Rams won this one — 5 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Bills at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Rams at 7 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Bills owned this one and still lost it — +0.45 expected points per snap, against Rams at +0.29 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Bills175 of 185 plays carry both curves
(10:32) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-Ty.Johnson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −16.9 for RamsExpected points −3.65 for RamsThe model had Rams 11 points higher than the market did.play 52
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 10:32LA +17% win prob(10:32) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-Ty.Johnson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 12:38BUF +16% win prob(12:38) 8-S.Martin punt is BLOCKED by 35-J.Hummel, Center-69-R.Ferguson, RECOVERED by LA-84-H.Long at BUF 22. 84-H.Long for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:53LA +15% win prob(3:53) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 5-T.Atwell to BUF 24 for 11 yards (9-T.Rapp).
3rd · 4:04LA +12% win prob(4:04) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:53LA +10% win prob(8:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 13-M.Hollins for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:20LA +8% win prob(12:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-P.Nacua to BUF 40 for 17 yards (9-T.Rapp; 3-D.Hamlin).
3rd · 13:45
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Joshua Karty's 22-yard field goal with 13:40 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Rams ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.82 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.45Bills: +0.45 expected points added per play
+0.29Rams: +0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.58Bills: +0.58 expected points added per play
+0.82Rams: +0.82 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Bills: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.10Rams: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 54 snaps at a 76% dropback rate against Rams’s 72 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Bills 6, Rams 6.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BUF's early-down pass rate, 75.6%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 14 — 5.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 66.0% in week 9.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 4.0-swing turn from week 13.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LA's early-down pass rate, 33.9%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 14 — 3.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 42.9% in week 13.
56 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points.
BUF's pass rate over expected turned over: −19.3 pts in week 13 against +6.7 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
BUF's blitz rate sent turned over: 0.0% in week 13 against 26.7% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 19 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −4.9 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (−1.18× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Rams2.4%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.1 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.49× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteBUF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 75.6%, 23.5 points above their season mean of 52.1% and 2.2 times their own 10.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
64O'Cyrus TorrenceG · Every snap100%60 snaps
79Spencer BrownT · Every snap100%60 snaps
76David EdwardsG · Every snap100%60 snaps
66Connor McGovernC · Every snap100%60 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%60 snaps
88Dawson KnoxTE · Full-time82%49 snaps
10Khalil ShakirWR · Heavy rotation78%47 snaps
13Mack HollinsWR · Heavy rotation77%46 snaps
1Curtis SamuelWR · Heavy rotation60%36 snaps
18Amari CooperWR · Heavy rotation53%32 snaps
4James CookRB · Rotational45%27 snaps
26Ty JohnsonRB · Rotational35%21 snaps
84Zach DavidsonTE · Rotational27%16 snaps
22Ray DavisRB · Situational22%13 snaps
70Alec AndersonG · Situational15%9 snaps
41Reggie GilliamFB · Situational5%3 snaps
89Jalen VirgilWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Will ClappCKaiir ElamCBJordan PhillipsDTEdefuan UlofoshioMLBDalton KincaidTEQuintin MorrisTEKeon ColemanWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Martin punt−16% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:38) 8-S.Martin punt is BLOCKED by 35-J.Hummel, Center-69-R.Ferguson, RECOVERED by LA-84-H.Long at BUF 22. 84-H.Long for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 12:38 · Bills · 4th & 10 at BUF 48 · gained nothing · -6.50 EP · −15.6% win probability
173 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 180. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 91 yards from the BUF 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
+0.27
Success rate
53%
Yards
902
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59+0.3342%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.4971%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.190%
Rams1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR6+0.3983%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.3050%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Bills0Rams6
Bills0Rams7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Bills 3
Bills6Rams7
Bills7Rams7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Rams 1
The period ended8 plays, from the Rams 32 to the Bills 11
2nd quarter47 plays
Bills7Rams10
Field goal4 plays, from the Bills 5 to the Bills 3
Bills7Rams16
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 48
Bills7Rams17
Bills13Rams17
Bills14Rams17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Rams 41
Bills14Rams23
Bills14Rams24
Touchdown17 plays, from the Rams 24 to the Bills 4
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 18 to the Bills 41
The period ended6 plays, from the Rams 13 to the Rams 25
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Bills 29
Bills14Rams30
Bills14Rams31
Touchdown13 plays, from the Rams 24 to the Bills 7
Bills20Rams31
Bills21Rams31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Bills 49
Bills21Rams37
Bills21Rams38
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Bills 17
The period ended5 plays
4th quarter60 plays
Bills27Rams38
Bills28Rams38
Touchdown3 plays, from the Rams 35 to the Rams 1
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 38
Bills34Rams38
Bills35Rams38
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bills 9 to the Rams 21
Bills35Rams44
Touchdown15 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Bills 19
Bills41Rams44
Bills42Rams44
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Rams 1
The period ended9 plays, from the Bills 45 to the Bills 37
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -3.5
Closing total
49.5
Bills moneyline
-192
Rams moneyline
+160
Bills closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 86 — over by 36.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Bills 7 days · Rams 7 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Sean McVay
LA +8% win prob
(13:45) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-P.Nacua to LA 37 for 13 yards (7-Ta.Johnson).
4th · 4:47BUF +7% win prob(4:47) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles left end pushed ob at BUF 36 for 1 yard (39-C.Lewis). ** Injury Update: BUF-7-Ta.Johnson has returned to the game. PENALTY on LA-73-S.Avila, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at BUF 37 - No Play.
