2024 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 8, 2024 · Lincoln Financial Field

Carolina Panthers

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

PHI -14 no coverU 44.5 ✓16 mph windEagles closed -14, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Philadelphia Eagles 22–16. Biggest swing: Q3 2:52, PHI +14% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 2:52CAR 16 — PHI 14CAR ball · 3rd & 1PHI 76%

(2:52) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 2:52PHI +14% win prob(2:52) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 0:29PHI +12% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles up the middle to CAR 9 for 35 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade).
Q4 · 13:50PHI +12% win prob(13:50) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 81-G.Calcaterra for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 10:47CAR +10% win prob(10:47) 4-J.Elliott 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 1:13CAR Field goal
(1:13) 4-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: CAR 3 — PHI 0
Q2 · 11:52PHI Touchdown
(11:52) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 3 — PHI 7
Q2 · 4:04CAR Touchdown
(4:04) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 10 — PHI 7
Q2 · 0:18PHI Touchdown
(:18) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 6-D.Smith for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 10 — PHI 14
Q3 · 2:52CAR Touchdown
(2:52) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CAR 16 — PHI 14
Q4 · 13:50PHI Touchdown
(13:50) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 81-G.Calcaterra for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: CAR 16 — PHI 22

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Eagles
Offensive plays	68	56
Total yards	303 (edge)	295
Yards per play	4.5	5.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.02	0.14 (edge)
Success rate	38%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11 (edge)	0.06
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.13	0.22 (edge)
Third downs	7/16	7/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Panthers outgained Eagles 303–295 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

19/34, 191 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

2.8 expected points added · -2.4% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

14/21, 108 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-1.8 expected points added · +4.8% completion over expected

Rushing · PHI

Saquon BarkleyRB

20 att, 124 yds, 0 TD

4.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

26 att, 92 yds, 1 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Adam ThielenWR

9/11 for 102 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 9.0 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

A.J. BrownWR

4/4 for 43 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 26	7	11	1:47	Punt
2	PHI	PHI 25	7	19	2:46	Punt
3	CAR	CAR 24	8	36	5:15	Punt
4	PHI	PHI 10	4	5	2:11	Punt
5	CAR	PHI 47	5	27	1:52	Field goal +3
6	PHI	PHI 30	12	75	4:21	Touchdown +7
7	CAR	CAR 31	16	69	7:48	Touchdown +7
8	PHI	PHI 24	5	3	1:05	Punt
9	CAR	CAR 29	3	7	1:05	Interception
10	PHI	CAR 44	8	44	1:36	Touchdown +7
11	CAR	CAR 21	2	0	0:14	End of half
12	PHI	PHI 30	10	36	4:18	Missed field goal
13	CAR	CAR 42	13	48	7:53	Touchdown +6
14	PHI	PHI 30	10	72	4:04	Touchdown +8
15	CAR	CAR 30	11	38	5:10	Turnover on downs
16	PHI	PHI 28	11	41	5:37	Punt
17	CAR	CAR 3	13	67	2:29	Turnover on downs
18	PHI	CAR 48	1	0	0:29	End of game

6 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 75 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bryce Young	19/34	191	1	1	1	2.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chuba Hubbard	26	92	3.5	1	-2.3
Bryce Young	7	29	4.1	0	1.9
Jonathon Brooks	1	-3	-3.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Adam Thielen	9	11	102	0	33%	9.0
Xavier Legette	2	8	39	0	24%	-5.0
David Moore	2	5	25	0	15%	0.7
Chuba Hubbard	4	5	15	0	15%	-1.9
Deven Thompkins	1	1	7	0	3%	0.5
Tommy Tremble	1	2	3	1	6%	3.5
Ja'Tavion Sanders	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Josey Jewell	5	5	1.5	0
Jaycee Horn	4	2	0.0	0
Trevin Wallace	3	3	0.0	0
D.J. Wonnum	3	2	1.0	0
A'Shawn Robinson	2	3	1.5	0
Xavier Woods	3	1	0.0	0
Chau Smith-Wade	3	1	0.0	0
Jordan Fuller	3	0	0.0	0
LaBryan Ray	1	2	0.0	0
Michael Jackson	1	1	0.0	2

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jalen Hurts	14/21	108	2	0	4	-1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Saquon Barkley	20	124	6.2	0	4.4
Jalen Hurts	8	59	7.4	1	2.6
Kenneth Gainwell	3	26	8.7	0	1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Brown	4	4	43	0	21%	4.7
DeVonta Smith	4	6	37	1	32%	3.2
Grant Calcaterra	3	3	16	1	16%	1.6
Kenneth Gainwell	2	2	7	0	11%	0.0
Jahan Dotson	1	2	5	0	11%	-1.6
Saquon Barkley	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.9
Johnny Wilson	0	1	0	0	5%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nakobe Dean	8	3	0.0	0	0
Zack Baun	5	5	1.0	0	0
Darius Slay	5	1	0.0	0	2
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	3	3	0.0	1	2
Cooper DeJean	5	0	0.0	0	0
Tristin McCollum	3	1	0.0	0	1
Jalyx Hunt	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jalen Carter	3	0	0.0	0	0
Quinyon Mitchell	2	1	0.0	0	0
Josh Sweat	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -14
Closing total: 44.5
CAR moneyline: +625
PHI moneyline: -950

Eagles closed -14, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 38 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 55°F, wind 16 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: CAR 7 days · PHI 7 days
Coaches: Dave Canales vs Nick Sirianni

Wind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.