For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 8, 2024 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 14
It turned at Q1 2:25, 2nd and 6, on Isaac Guerendo — 5.0 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 38–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 2:25, 49ers +5.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 2:25 · 2nd and 6
Isaac Guerendo
49ers
(2:25) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 31-I.Guerendo to CHI 1 for 27 yards (57-J.Sanborn) [94-A.Booker].
5.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Bears at 1 chunk play.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.73 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.17 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.41 expected points per snap, against Bears at -0.15 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
(2:25) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 31-I.Guerendo to CHI 1 for 27 yards (57-J.Sanborn) [94-A.Booker].
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jauan Jennings's 7-yard touchdown catch with 12:25 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Jauan Jennings7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Brock PurdyLead never changed again+70–78 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Bearscategory by category49ers
49ers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.73 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 53 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against 49ers’s 60 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Bears 2, 49ers 6.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's blitz rate sent, 5.9%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 14 — 5.9 points clear of the next team along.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
SF's play-action rate, 39.3%, is past their previous high of 26.3% in week 3 — the highest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points. · +2.2σ from their own normal
SF's sack or hit rate turned over: 5.3% in week 13 against 23.5% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
CHI's pass rate over expected turned over: +7.7 pts in week 13 against −4.2 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points. · −0.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Bears-4.2 ptsright on their number · −1.7 vs their -2.5 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 52 snaps
49ers-5.2 ptsright on their number · −2.9 vs their -2.3 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 23% to 86%
Tendencies room →Bears59.5%right on their number · +1.5 vs their 58.0%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 42 early downs
49ers37.0%leaned — ran early · −17.5 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (−1.40× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 43%
Tendencies room →Bears20.6%right on their number · +2.2 vs their 18.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
49ers39.3%off script — faked the run · +19.9 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+2.18× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 126%
Fourth Down room →Bears—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 57.7%.
49ers50.0%leaned — went for it · +28.3 vs their 21.7%, and they swing ±20.8 week to week (+1.36× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 50%
Tendencies room →Bears39.3%leaned — sent pressure · +13.4 vs their 25.9%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (+1.44× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
49ers5.9%leaned — sat back · −14.3 vs their 20.2%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−1.33× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 33%
Tendencies room →Bears10.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.6 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
49ers23.5%leaned — got home · +9.7 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.29× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
SF's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 39.3%, 19.9 points above their season mean of 19.4% and 2.2 times their own 9.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
20/25, 325 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
22.8 expected points added · +16.9% completion over expected
Passing · CHI
17/23, 134 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
-7.5 expected points added · +3.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jauan Jennings banked 12.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jauan JenningsWR · Alpha Receiver | 28.0 | +12.6 | 74% | 82% | 31% | 31% | 7/8, 90 yd, 2 TD |
| Isaac GuerendoRB · Committee Back | 26.8 | +11.1 | 56% | 57% | 8% | 10% | 15 car, 78 yd, 2 TD · 2/2, 50 yd |
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 22.1 | +5.6 | 93% | — | 0% | — | 20/25, 325 yd, 2 TD · 5 car, 11 yd |
| George KittleTE · Featured Receiver | 21.1 | +10.8 | 85% | 86% | 23% | 18% | 6/6, 151 yd |
| Rome OdunzeWR · Featured Receiver | 20.2 | +8.5 | 92% | 94% | 21% | 44% | 4/5, 42 yd, 2 TD |
| Caleb WilliamsQB · Starter QB | 14.1 | +1.2 | 92% | — | 0% | — | 17/23, 134 yd, 2 TD · 4 car, 27 yd |
| D.J. MooreWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.9 | −0.7 | 91% | 97% | 33% | 29% | 6/8, 49 yd |
| Patrick TaylorRB | 8.5 | +1.2 | 33% | 29% | 4% | 0% | 7 car, 25 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Keenan AllenWR · Featured Receiver | 6.0 | −1.0 | 89% | 94% | 21% | 26% | 3/5, 30 yd |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | −3.1 | 79% | 86% | 12% | 4% | 5 car, 13 yd · 2/3, 22 yd |
| D'Andre SwiftRB · Bell Cow Back | 5.0 | −6.9 | 79% | 76% | 8% | 0% | 14 car, 38 yd · 1/2, 2 yd |
| Travis HomerRB · Receiving Back | 4.1 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Collin JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.4 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ricky PearsallWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −2.3 | 49% | 71% | 8% | 14% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.2 | 28% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 1.3 | −2.1 | 51% | 39% | 8% | 11% | 1/2, 3 yd |
| Ke'Shawn VaughnRB | 0.4 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Darrynton EvansRB | 0.3 | −1.4 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tyson BagentQB | 0.2 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cole KmetTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.1 | 92% | 97% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| DeAndre CarterWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jacob CowingWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.1 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brandon AllenQB | -2.0 | −2.7 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
8 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 31-I.Guerendo pushed ob at CHI 40 for 23 yards (31-K.Byard).
Q1 13:54 · 49ers · 3rd & 3 at SF 37 · gained 23 · +2.32 EP · +6.5% win probability
142 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 152 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 142 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 147. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 71 yards from the SF 29 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
152 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
152 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Bears0
49ers6Bears049ers7Bears049ers13Bears049ers14Bears049ers20Bears049ers21Bears049ers24Bears649ers24Bears649ers30Bears649ers31Bears1249ers31Bears1349ers31Bears1349ers37Bears1349ers38Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bears at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 17/23 | 134 | 2 | 0 | 7 | −7.5 |
| Tyson Bagent | 1/1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 14 | 38 | 2.7 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Caleb Williams | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Moore | 6 | 8 | 49 | 0 | 33% | +1.8 |
| Rome Odunze | 4 | 5 | 42 | 2 | 21% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Edwards | 6 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Owens |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 20/25 | 325 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +22.8 |
| Brandon Allen | 0/1 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_14_CHI_SF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -3 and covered, winning by 25.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 51 — over by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
| Darrynton Evans | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| +6.5 |
| Keenan Allen | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 21% | +1.7 |
| Travis Homer | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 13% | −0.9 |
| Collin Johnson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | +0.4 |
| D'Andre Swift | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8% | −1.1 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Kyler Gordon | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zacch Pickens | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Cowart | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Johnson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Montez Sweat | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Williams | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| −1.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Guerendo | 15 | 78 | 5.2 | 2 | +2.0 |
| Patrick Taylor | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 1 | +2.9 |
| Deebo Samuel | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Brock Purdy | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 6 | 6 | 151 | 0 | 23% | +13.4 |
| Jauan Jennings | 7 | 8 | 90 | 2 | 31% | +7.9 |
| Isaac Guerendo | 2 | 2 | 50 | 0 | 8% | +4.9 |
| Deebo Samuel | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 12% | −0.6 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8% | −1.5 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | +1.7 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8% | −0.7 |
| Patrick Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.3 |
| Jacob Cowing | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Vondre Campbell | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charvarius Ward | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Mustapha | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | 4 | 0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Warner | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Beal | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Winters | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Graham | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Anderson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
