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2024 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 8, 2024 · Levi's Stadium

Chicago Bears

13

San Francisco 49ersWinner

38

SF -3 ✓O 43.5 ✓

San Francisco 49ers 38–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 2:25, SF +5% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SF ↑CHI ↓
Q1 · 2:25CHI 0 — SF 7SF ball · 2nd & 6SF 81%

(2:25) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 31-I.Guerendo to CHI 1 for 27 yards (57-J.Sanborn) [94-A.Booker].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 2:25SF +5% win prob(2:25) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 31-I.Guerendo to CHI 1 for 27 yards (57-J.Sanborn) [94-A.Booker].
  2. Q1 · 4:43CHI +5% win prob(4:43) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI 11 for -7 yards (94-Y.Gross-Matos).
  3. Q1 · 13:16SF +4% win prob(13:16) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to CHI 7 for 33 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 96-Z.Pickens).
  4. Q1 · 13:54SF +4% win prob(13:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 31-I.Guerendo pushed ob at CHI 40 for 23 yards (31-K.Byard).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 12:25SF Touchdown

    (12:25) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 15-J.Jennings for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 0 — SF 7
  2. Q1 · 1:43SF Touchdown

    (1:43) 31-I.Guerendo up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI-99-G.Dexter was injured during the play. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 0 — SF 14
  3. Q2 · 7:46SF Touchdown

    (7:46) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 15-J.Jennings for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 0 — SF 21
  4. Q2 · 1:53SF Field goal

    (1:53) 4-J.Moody 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

    Score after this play: CHI 0 — SF 24
  5. Q3 · 6:01CHI Touchdown

    (6:01) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 15-R.Odunze for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: CHI 6 — SF 24
  6. Q4 · 15:00SF Touchdown

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 31-I.Guerendo up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 6 — SF 31
  7. Q4 · 11:54CHI Touchdown

    (11:54) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 15-R.Odunze for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 13 — SF 31
  8. Q4 · 5:19SF Touchdown

    (5:19) (Shotgun) 32-P.Taylor up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 13 — SF 38

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBears49ers
Offensive plays5360
Total yards162453 (edge)
Yards per play3.17.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.150.41 (edge)
Success rate40%50% (edge)
Dropback rate64%47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.170.73 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.130.12 (edge)
Third downs4/106/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)19 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1521 (edge)
Sacks taken71 (edge)
Turnovers11

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs -0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

20/25, 325 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

22.8 expected points added · +16.9% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

17/23, 134 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-7.5 expected points added · +3.6% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Isaac GuerendoRB

15 att, 78 yds, 2 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

D'Andre SwiftRB

14 att, 38 yds, 0 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

6/6 for 151 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 13.4 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Jauan JenningsWR

7/8 for 90 yds, 2 TD

31% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1SFSF 307702:40Touchdown +7
2CHICHI 23562:12Punt
3SFSF 138363:58Punt
4CHICHI 6652:20Punt
5SFSF 365642:11Touchdown +7
6CHICHI 305-21:34Punt
7SFSF 2913717:24Touchdown +7
8CHICHI 305-72:07Punt
9SFSF 269793:44Field goal +3
10CHICHI 40521:47Punt
11SFSF 6100:03End of half
12CHICHI 3018709:04Touchdown +6
13SFSF 30570:57Punt
14CHICHI 356272:19Fumble
15SFSF 386622:43Touchdown +7
16CHICHI 408603:09Touchdown +7
17SFSF 3015606:33Touchdown +7
18CHICHI 305-81:41Punt
19SF50341:35Interception
20CHICHI 24491:59End of game

8 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 79 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Caleb Williams17/23134207-7.5
Tyson Bagent1/160000.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
D'Andre Swift14382.70-1.3
Caleb Williams4276.801.5
Darrynton Evans331.00-1.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
D.J. Moore6849033%1.8
Rome Odunze4542221%6.5
Keenan Allen3530021%1.7
Travis Homer3311013%-0.9
Collin Johnson11604%0.4
D'Andre Swift12208%-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
T.J. Edwards641.001
Tremaine Edmunds250.000
Jonathan Owens520.011
Kyler Gordon420.000
Kevin Byard320.001
Zacch Pickens320.000
Byron Cowart120.000
Jaylon Johnson300.001
Montez Sweat110.000
Chris Williams200.000

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brock Purdy20/2532520122.8
Brandon Allen0/10010-1.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Isaac Guerendo15785.222.0
Patrick Taylor7253.612.9
Deebo Samuel5132.60-0.9
Brock Purdy5112.200.1
Ke'Shawn Vaughn242.00-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
George Kittle66151023%13.4
Jauan Jennings7890231%7.9
Isaac Guerendo225008%4.9
Deebo Samuel2322012%-0.6
Ricky Pearsall12508%-1.5
Eric Saubert11404%1.7
Kyle Juszczyk12308%-0.7
Patrick Taylor01004%-1.3
Jacob Cowing01004%-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
De'Vondre Campbell510.000
Talanoa Hufanga230.000
Charvarius Ward410.000
Malik Mustapha230.000
Yetur Gross-Matos403.000
Fred Warner120.000
Robert Beal120.000
Dee Winters300.001
Jalen Graham210.000
Evan Anderson300.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SF -3
Closing total
43.5
CHI moneyline
+136
SF moneyline
-162

49ers closed -3 and covered, winning by 25.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 51 — over by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
65°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
CHI 10 days · SF 7 days
Coaches
Matt Eberflus vs Kyle Shanahan