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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Bears144 of 152 plays carry both curves
Q1 · 2:25Bears 0 — 49ers 7SF ball · 2nd & 6SF 81%
Bears 19%49ers 81%
(2:25) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 31-I.Guerendo to CHI 1 for 27 yards (57-J.Sanborn) [94-A.Booker].
Swing +5.0 for 49ersExpected points +2.63 for 49ersThe model had Bears 2 points higher than the market did.play 31
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 2:25SF +5% win prob(2:25) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 31-I.Guerendo to CHI 1 for 27 yards (57-J.Sanborn) [94-A.Booker].
1st · 4:43CHI +5% win prob(4:43) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI 11 for -7 yards (94-Y.Gross-Matos).
1st · 13:16SF +4% win prob(13:16) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to CHI 7 for 33 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 96-Z.Pickens).
1st · 13:54SF +4% win prob(13:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 31-I.Guerendo pushed ob at CHI 40 for 23 yards (31-K.Byard).
1st · 10:59CHI +3% win prob(10:59) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 20-T.Homer to CHI 29 for 3 yards (2-D.Lenoir).
1st · 6:23CHI +3% win prob(6:23) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 1-D.Samuel (53-T.Edwards).
1st · 6:17
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jauan Jennings's 7-yard touchdown catch with 12:25 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
49ers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.73 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.15Bears: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.4149ers: +0.41 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.17Bears: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.7349ers: +0.73 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Bears: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.1249ers: +0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 53 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against 49ers’s 60 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Bears 2, 49ers 6.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SF's blitz rate sent, 5.9%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 14 — 5.9 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 13.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
high through week 14Against their seasonTendencies
SF's play-action rate, 39.3%, is past their previous high of 26.3% in week 3 — the highest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 13.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points.
SF's sack or hit rate turned over: 5.3% in week 13 against 23.5% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
CHI's pass rate over expected turned over: +7.7 pts in week 13 against −4.2 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.6 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
49ers23.5%
leaned — got home · +9.7 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.29× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteSF's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 39.3%, 19.9 points above their season mean of 19.4% and 2.2 times their own 9.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 7 inactive
79Matt PryorT · Every snap100%53 snaps
70Braxton JonesT · Every snap100%53 snaps
58Darnell WrightT · Full-time92%49 snaps
65Coleman SheltonC · Full-time92%49 snaps
85Cole KmetTE · Full-time92%49 snaps
76Teven JenkinsT · Full-time92%49 snaps
18Caleb WilliamsQB · Full-time92%49 snaps
15Rome OdunzeWR · Full-time92%49 snaps
2DJ MooreWR · Full-time91%48 snaps
13Keenan AllenWR · Full-time89%47 snaps
4D'Andre SwiftRB · Heavy rotation79%42 snaps
14Gerald EverettTE · Situational15%8 snaps
20Travis HomerRB · Situational13%7 snaps
84Marcedes LewisTE · Situational11%6 snaps
80Collin JohnsonWR · Situational9%5 snaps
25Darrynton EvansRB · Situational8%4 snaps
68Doug KramerC · Situational8%4 snaps
73Jake CurhanT · Situational8%4 snaps
72Kiran AmegadjieT · Situational8%4 snaps
17Tyson BagentQB · Situational8%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Ryan BatesCAmeer SpeedCBDominique RobinsonDEElijah HicksFSRoschon JohnsonRBLarry BoromTTyler ScottWR
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
76Jaylon MooreT · Every snap100%61 snaps
77Dominick PuniG · Every snap100%61 snaps
68Colton McKivitzT · Full-time95%58 snaps
64Jake BrendelC · Full-time95%58 snaps
13Brock PurdyQB · Full-time93%57 snaps
85George KittleTE · Full-time85%52 snaps
74Spencer BurfordG · Full-time84%51 snaps
1Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · Heavy rotation79%48 snaps
15Jauan JenningsWR · Heavy rotation74%45 snaps
31Isaac GuerendoRB · Heavy rotation56%34 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykFB · Heavy rotation51%31 snaps
14Ricky PearsallWR · Rotational49%30 snaps
32Patrick TaylorRB · Rotational33%20 snaps
82Eric SaubertTE · Rotational28%17 snaps
18Chris ConleyWR · Rotational25%15 snaps
78Ben BartchG · Situational16%10 snaps
9Brayden WillisTE · Situational7%4 snaps
17Brandon AllenQB · Situational7%4 snaps
88Jake TongesTE · Situational5%3 snaps
63Nick ZakeljG · Situational5%3 snaps
19Jacob CowingWR · Situational5%3 snaps
60Sebastian GutierrezT · Situational5%3 snaps
49Ke'Shawn VaughnRB · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Rock Ya-SinCBNick BosaDEAaron BanksGDemetrius Flannigan-FowlesOLBJoshua DobbsQBIsrael AbanikandaRBTrent WilliamsT
8 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Purdy pass+6% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 31-I.Guerendo pushed ob at CHI 40 for 23 yards (31-K.Byard).
Q1 13:54 · 49ers · 3rd & 3 at SF 37 · gained 23 · +2.32 EP · +6.5% win probability
142 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 152 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 142 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 147. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 71 yards from the SF 29 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
152 of 152 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
152
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
47%
Yards
614
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.1264%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.4563%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR19+0.4237%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.4633%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.6017%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
49ers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
49ers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
152 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
152 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Bears049ers6
Bears049ers7
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Bears 7
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 23 to the Bears 29
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 13 to the 49ers 49
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 6 to the Bears 18
Bears049ers13
Bears049ers14
Touchdown5 plays, from the 49ers 36 to the Bears 1
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 33
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter34 plays
Bears049ers20
Bears049ers21
Touchdown12 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Bears 16
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 35
Bears049ers24
Field goal9 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the Bears 5
The period ended6 plays, from the Bears 40 to the Bears 48
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Bears649ers24
Touchdown18 plays, from the Bears 30 to the 49ers 4
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the 49ers 32
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Bears 35 to the 49ers 30
The period ended5 plays, from the 49ers 38 to the Bears 17
4th quarter43 plays
Bears649ers30
Bears649ers31
Touchdown2 plays
Bears1249ers31
Bears1349ers31
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bears 40 to the 49ers 14
Bears1349ers37
Bears1349ers38
Touchdown19 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Bears 3
Punt5 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from midfield to the Bears 46
The period ended5 plays, from the Bears 24 to the Bears 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
