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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:49 AM ET · 16 to play
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Bengals164 of 172 plays carry both curves
(2:00) 8-R.Rehkow punts 13 yards to CIN 42, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 27-A.Oruwariye MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CIN-45-M.Njongmeta at CIN 43.
Swing −27.1 for CowboysExpected points −2.94 for CowboysThe model had Cowboys 6 points higher than the market did.play 157
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:00DAL +27% win prob(2:00) 8-R.Rehkow punts 13 yards to CIN 42, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 27-A.Oruwariye MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CIN-45-M.Njongmeta at CIN 43.
4th · 1:09DAL +13% win prob(1:09) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:59DAL +10% win prob(8:59) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 88-C.Lamb for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 7:01CIN +9% win prob(7:01) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 28-M.Hooker at DAL 18. 28-M.Hooker to DAL 17 for -1 yards (1-J.Chase).
4th · 1:49DAL +9% win prob(1:49) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown up the middle to DAL 40 for 10 yards (28-M.Hooker; 6-Do.Wilson).
3rd · 10:37DAL +9% win prob(10:37) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 3-B.Cooks for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CIN-28-J.Newton, Defensive Holding, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ja'Marr Chase's 40-yard touchdown catch with 1:09 left in the 4th put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:59CeeDee Lamb·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Cooper Rushfrom Cooper Rush+70–7
1st2:51Ja'Marr Chase·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+77–7
2nd6:26Brandon Aubrey·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+37–10
2nd3:36Chase Brown·19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+714–10
2nd0:34Cade York·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder R.Rehkow · snap C.Adomitis+317–10
3rd10:37Brandin Cooks·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Cooper Rushfrom Cooper Rush+717–17
4th15:00Brandon Aubrey·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+317–20
4th10:28Cade York·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder R.Rehkow · snap C.Adomitis+320–20
4th1:09Ja'Marr Chase·40-yd TD catch40-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe BurrowLead never changed again+727–20
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryCowboys
Bengals6–2Cowboys
435Total yards322
6.9Yards per play5.5
52%Success rate44%
40%Third-down rate33%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays8
22First downs16
2Sacks taken3
2Turnovers1
The read
Bengals ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cowboys, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Bengals: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.02Cowboys: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.23Bengals: +0.23 expected points added per play
−0.18Cowboys: −0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Bengals: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.22Cowboys: +0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 63 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 59 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 5, Cowboys 4.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 25 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.7 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Cowboys17.4%
right on their number · +1.2 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NoteCIN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 40.0%, 12.3 points above their season mean of 27.7% and 1.3 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Rehkow punts+22% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:00) 8-R.Rehkow punts 13 yards to CIN 42, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 27-A.Oruwariye MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CIN-45-M.Njongmeta at CIN 43.
Q4 2:00 · Bengals · 4th & 27 at CIN 29 · gained nothing · +2.94 EP · +22.0% win probability
162 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 70 yards from the CIN 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
50%
Yards
755
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.1768%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.0174%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.2128%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.0571%
Bengals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR7+0.17100%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 34
Bengals0Cowboys6
Bengals0Cowboys7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cowboys 40 to the Bengals 11
Bengals6Cowboys7
Bengals7Cowboys7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Cowboys 5
The period ended7 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Bengals 12
2nd quarter47 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Bengals 4 to the Cowboys 44
Bengals7Cowboys10
Field goal7 plays, from the Cowboys 44 to the Bengals 17
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.5 seconds
Bengals13Cowboys10
Bengals14Cowboys10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bengals 36 to the Cowboys 19
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Cowboys 33
Bengals17Cowboys10
Field goal9 plays, from the Bengals 45 to the Cowboys 19
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Cowboys 35
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Bengals17Cowboys16
Bengals17Cowboys17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Bengals 3
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Cowboys 33
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
The period ended13 plays, from the Cowboys 17 to the Bengals 29
4th quarter52 plays
Bengals17Cowboys20
Field goal1 play
Bengals20Cowboys20
Field goal10 plays, from the Bengals 32 to the Cowboys 10
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 26 to the Bengals 49
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 34
Punt9 plays, from the Bengals 14 to the Bengals 49
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Bengals26Cowboys20
Bengals27Cowboys20
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bengals 43 to the Cowboys 40
The period ended9 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Cowboys 48
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bengals -5
Closing total
51
Bengals moneyline
-230
Cowboys moneyline
+190
Bengals closed -5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 51; the game landed 47 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Bengals 8 days · Cowboys 11 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs Mike McCarthy
2nd · 15:00
CIN +9% win prob
(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 22-G.Stone (29-C.Taylor-Britt) at CIN 4. 22-G.Stone to CIN 4 for no gain (88-C.Lamb). Penalty on DAL, Illegal Formation, declined.
4th · 15:00DAL +9% win prob(15:00) 17-B.Aubrey 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
