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Cleveland Browns 14 at Pittsburgh Steelers 27. Final.
Steelers -6 ✓U 43 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 14
Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Browns 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 13:26, 1st and 10, on Keeanu Benton — 17.4 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 13:26 · 1st and 10
Keeanu Benton
Steelers
(13:26) 5-J.Winston pass short middle intended for 24-N.Chubb INTERCEPTED by 95-K.Benton at CLE 42. 95-K.Benton to CLE 31 for 11 yards (24-N.Chubb).
Steelers closed -6 and covered, winning by 13.
Pittsburgh Steelers 27–14. Biggest swing: Q2 13:26, Steelers +17.4% win probability on one snap.
17.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Russell WilsonBrownsQ1 4:48(4:48) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left [95-M.Garrett]. PENALTY on PIT-3-R.Wilson, Intentional Grounding, 11 yards, enforced at PIT 36.
8.2pts
Dustin HopkinsSteelersQ2 0:28(:28) 7-D.Hopkins 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
9.2pts
What separated them
Third down
Steelers won this one — 6 of 14 on third down, against Browns at 2 of 13 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Steelers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Browns at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Browns at 2 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Steelers won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Browns at 5 chunk plays.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Browns173 of 182 plays carry both curves
(13:26) 5-J.Winston pass short middle intended for 24-N.Chubb INTERCEPTED by 95-K.Benton at CLE 42. 95-K.Benton to CLE 31 for 11 yards (24-N.Chubb).
Swing +17.4 for SteelersExpected points +6.25 for SteelersThe model had Browns 13 points higher than the market did.play 53
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 13:26CLE +17% win prob(13:26) 5-J.Winston pass short middle intended for 24-N.Chubb INTERCEPTED by 95-K.Benton at CLE 42. 95-K.Benton to CLE 31 for 11 yards (24-N.Chubb).
2nd · 0:28CLE +9% win prob(:28) 7-D.Hopkins 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
1st · 4:48CLE +8% win prob(4:48) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left [95-M.Garrett]. PENALTY on PIT-3-R.Wilson, Intentional Grounding, 11 yards, enforced at PIT 36.
1st · 5:57PIT +8% win prob(5:57) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass deep middle to 3-J.Jeudy for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 12:44CLE +6% win prob(12:44) 7-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
2nd · 12:33PIT +5% win prob(12:33) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 19-C.Austin. PENALTY on CLE-0-G.Newsome, Defensive Pass Interference, 16 yards, enforced at CLE 28 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Najee Harris's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 11:04 left in the 2nd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:35Chris Boswell·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.Kuntz+30–3
Steelers ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.16Browns: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.11Steelers: −0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.22Browns: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.00Steelers: −0.00 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Browns: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.20Steelers: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 69 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Steelers’s 60 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Browns 4, Steelers 5.
NoteBrowns outgained Steelers 300-269 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CLE's pass rate over expected turned over: +4.1 pts in week 13 against −5.4 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.5 points.
PIT's early-down pass rate turned over: 60.0% in week 13 against 39.1% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
CLE's sack or hit rate turned over: 5.6% in week 13 against 24.1% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
CLE's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 20.0% in week 13 against 75.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 13 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their 18.6%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.67× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Steelers13.3%
right on their number · −3.3 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NoteCLE's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 11.1%, 11.4 points below their season mean of 22.5% and 1.6 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Winston pass−18% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(13:26) 5-J.Winston pass short middle intended for 24-N.Chubb INTERCEPTED by 95-K.Benton at CLE 42. 95-K.Benton to CLE 31 for 11 yards (24-N.Chubb).
Q2 13:26 · Browns · 1st & 10 at CLE 47 · gained nothing · -6.25 EP · −18.3% win probability
171 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 177. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 84 yards from the CLE 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
41%
Yards
567
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.1758%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.1044%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.2250%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.1686%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9-0.4422%
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Steelers 38
Punt4 plays
Browns0Steelers3
Field goal6 plays, from the Browns 36 to the Browns 7
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
Browns6Steelers3
Browns7Steelers3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Steelers 35
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Steelers 36
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 37 to the Steelers 41
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 10 to the Steelers 19
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 24
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Browns7Steelers9
Browns7Steelers10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 31 to the Browns 1
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 35
Browns7Steelers13
Field goal12 plays, from the Steelers 19 to the Browns 36
No good16 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Steelers 20
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
No good7 plays, from the Steelers 39 to the Steelers 15
Browns7Steelers19
Browns7Steelers20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Steelers 33 to the Browns 10
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Steelers 49
Browns7Steelers26
Browns7Steelers27
Touchdown6 plays, from the Browns 46 to the Browns 20
The period ended12 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Steelers 25
4th quarter45 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 4 to the Steelers 9
Browns13Steelers27
Browns14Steelers27
Touchdown16 plays, from the Browns 21 to the Steelers 15
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Browns 45
Intercepted2 plays, from midfield to the Steelers 39
The period ended8 plays, from the Steelers 36 to the Steelers 37
The period ended6 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 6
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
